“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Jordan Hawkins is a 21-year-old combo guard from Maryland who averaged 16.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game for the national champion UConn Huskies. He is expected to be selected in the middle of the first round in this year’s draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 18.
NBA-Specific Skills
Sometimes, it’s best not to over-complicate basketball analysis. Obviously, it’s important to evaluate a prospect’s full impact on both ends of the court, but the whole point of this game is to put the ball in the basket.
Jordan Hawkins gets buckets.
Hawkins is a pure scorer who is just as effective at the rim as he is from behind the arc, but it’s the 3-point shooting that will be his calling card at the next level. Hawkins hit just under 40% from deep on extremely high volume (7.6 attempts per game). At 6-5 with a high release point and terrific elevation, Hawkins can get his shot sprinting off pin-down screens or creating for himself off the dribble. He’s not quite prime Klay Thompson in terms of shooting on the move, but Hawkins is this draft’s best bet in developing into that kind of shooting threat.
Hawkins also saves his best performances for the biggest games, as we saw during UConn’s surprisingly dominant NCAA Tournament run. Hawkins shot a blistering 50% from 3 (21-42) while UConn won each of their six tournament games by double figures.
It’s easy to envision a scenario where Hawkins is an even more effective pro, as the added floor spacing will give him ample opportunity to flash his best skill, and the gravity that comes from his shooting ability will be even more pronounced in the NBA.
He’s a slick ball handler who can wiggle his way into the teeth of a defense, and he can blow by over-eager closeouts exceptionally well. He is an elite foul shooter (89%) and a sneaky rebounder. He takes care of the basketball, and he has the length/quickness to contribute in a variety of ways defensively.
On a scale from 1-10, Hawkins’ ability to score in bunches – particularly from deep – rates at a 9.
Flaws
When the shot isn’t falling, what does Hawkins bring to the table?
His highlight reel makes it seem like Hawkins could average 25 points per game, but those YouTube clips obviously aren’t showing the forced shots in traffic or the prolonged cold spells that crush his overall efficiency stats.
His overall field goal percentage (40.9%) is barely higher than his 3-point mark (38.8%). He hasn’t quite figured out the floater range yet. If he develops a reliable floater in traffic, watch out. But right now, his scoring attack is a bit one dimensional.
He is also a bit of an offensive black hole, averaging only 1.3 assists on high usage. Skeptics will point to his negative assist/turnover ratio when criticizing his playmaking ability.
He’s on the thinner side compared to other shooting guards, and at age 21, he is a bit older than some of the prospects being drafted in the lottery.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Hawkins’ struggles inside the arc rate at an 8.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
After a strong high school career in Maryland, including his state’s Gatorade Player of the Year honors after his senior year, Hawkins earned 4-star ratings from many recruiting services and chose UConn ahead of several other east-coast power programs.
Hawkins started slowly his freshman year, but eventually earned conference All-Freshman Team honors after flashing a little bit of the shooting prowess that would emerge his sophomore season. Few players improved as drastically as Hawkins did these past couple years.
He made incredible strides in his ability to shoot off screens and use his teammates to create openings. The tentativeness that popped up from time to time his freshman season was gone. Unlike several other lottery prospects, his best performances came in March, where the Huskies dominated all six NCAA Tournament games and won the national championship.
On a scale of 1-10, Hawkins’ pre-NBA career is a 9. He is a bit of a late bloomer, but it’s hard to criticize anyone who shot 50% from 3 during a title run.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Hawkins might need a bit of time to adjust to the speed and physicality of NBA basketball, but his gravity and movement should pay dividends for any team that relies on a heavy diet of pin-downs and dribble hand-offs.
Golden State makes a lot of sense at pick 19, as there isn’t a better mentor for Hawkins than Klay Thompson. The Warriors have had a bit of a spotty track record trying to incorporate youth into their complicated offense and veteran culture, but Hawkins seems like the perfect rookie to shadow the best shooters in basketball history.
The Miami Heat, picking 18th, employ several undrafted, hard-nosed swingmen who have contributed in major ways to this squad’s surprising Finals run. If Hawkins can buy into “Heat Culture,” he makes a lot of sense as another dead-eye shooter/slasher alongside Tyler Herro.
The Los Angeles Lakers at pick 17 need cost-controlled talent and additional floor spacing surrounding LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Hawkins will feast on open 3s alongside the James/Davis screen and roll, and Austin Reaves could show him the ropes on how to score in the floater range.
On a scale from 1-10, Hawkins’ situational dependence is a 9. He could turn into a red-hot bench scorer early in his rookie contract in the right offensive ecosystem, with the potential to turn into more if he can improve his court vision.
