“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Chet Holmgren is a 19-year-old center from Minneapolis, Minnesota, who averaged 14 points, 10 rebounds, 3.7 blocks and 2 assists in his freshman season for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. He is expected to be selected among the top-5 picks in the upcoming NBA Draft and as high as No. 1 overall. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 4.
NBA-Specific Skills
NBA scouts like to throw around the term “unicorn” to describe once-in-a-lifetime prospects with inimitable skills and physical attributes.
Calling Chet Holmgren a “unicorn” doesn’t quite cover it. Holmgren more closely resembles the robots that show up at the end of Steven Spielberg’s “A.I. Artificial Intelligence,” only if they could shoot 3s.
I have been writing about basketball for quite a while and I can’t recall ever coming across a player quite like Holmgren. He strolls onto the court looking like John Mulaney had each of his limbs replaced with Kristaps Porzingis replica arms and legs, yet he glides around the floor with effortless grace. He covers so much ground without having to break into a sprint, and he remains in full control on both ends of the court.
Offensively, he possesses incredible touch with either hand around the hoop and a jumper that extends well beyond the 3-point line. He knocked down 39% of his attempts from beyond the arc on decent volume (3.3 attempts per game) and appears comfortable taking above-the-break 3s on pick-and-pop opportunities instead of camping out in the corners. Holmgren is quick and savvy enough to beat aggressive post defenders with quick back-cuts and dip-ins, and he’s a pest on the offensive glass due to his outrageous length.
That length turns into a real weapon on the other end of the floor. He is this draft class’s best natural shotblocker. He’s long enough to alter all variety of shot attempts without leaving his feet or giving up his rebounding position.
It’s his toughness, however, that sets him apart. Holmgren is self-aware. He knows what his opponents are thinking the instant they step on the floor with him. “Oh, I’m going to dunk all over this skinny dude.” He has been dealing with it his entire basketball life, and he has yet to back down from a challenge.
On a scale from 1-10, Holmgren’s unique-to-him upside rates at a 9.5.
Fatal Flaws
He’s just so thin.
It’s one thing to step up to the challenge against high schoolers and college players. It’s quite another when it’s Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo coming at you.
Holmgren’s 195-pound frame will undoubtedly fill out a bit as he ages, but it’s unlikely that he will ever be one of the NBA’s studier big men. Holmgren optimists often point to Texas-era Kevin Durant as a path for Holmgren, but Holmgren isn’t even anywhere close to KD in terms of shot creation or ball handling. Holmgren will have to earn his living at or around the rim on both ends. His shooting ability is more of the secondary floor-stretching variety as opposed to one-on-one, off-the-bounce creation.
It’s entirely feasible that Holmgren’s skills take a while to translate to this level as his body catches up. Teams drafting this high aren’t always as patient as they need to be. If Holmgren finds himself in a situation where he is asked to produce right away against players 80-100 pounds heavier, his confidence could take a serious hit.
Additionally, injuries are a concern for every player, but those concerns are even more pronounced when a player has Holmgren’s physical dimensions.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Holmgren’s thin frame sits at a 9.
Pre-NBA Setting
Prior to joining the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Holmgren’s path toward star-recruit status began as a slow burn and escalated into a five-alarm fire.
Much like Anthony Davis, Holmgren played as a 6-2 guard before shooting up eight inches prior to starting high school. He started to make a name for himself by his sophomore year at Minnehaha Academy in Minneapolis before dominating as an upperclassman. He won just about every national award a player can win after a stellar senior season and followed his pal and teammate, Jalen Suggs, to Gonzaga. He was the consensus No. 1 recruit according to everyone who ranks this sort of thing.
A large part of Holmgren’s development can be tied to his father, Dave, a former standout at the University of Minnesota and a 7-footer himself. No wonder Chet gets such a high arc on his jumper.
Holmgren’s freshman year at Gonzaga came to an unceremonious end after a disappointing Sweet 16 loss to Arkansas and a crew of whistle-happy officials, but prior to that game, Holmgren helped keep the Zags in the top spot on the AP and Coaches polls for most of the season and racked up plenty of individual accolades.
On a scale from 1-10, Holmgren’s pre-NBA career rates at a 9.5. The only thing keeping it from a perfect 10 is the lack of a national title with Gonzaga entering the tournament among the betting favorites.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Holmgren needs to find himself on a franchise with a long-term vision, a creative coach, a top-shelf strength and conditioning program and enough perimeter talent to create opportunities for him. Holmgren isn’t the type of player a team plugs in on day one and takes charge of the offense.
Of all the teams that could conceivably pick in Holmgren’s range, the Oklahoma City Thunder check most of the boxes. Sam Presti continues to build toward some unknown future with dozens of draft picks and high-upside projects. I love the idea of Holmgren sharing the floor with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey – two unorthodox playmaking guards. Plus, nothing is more entertaining than the vision of Holmgren sharing the floor with Aleksej Pokuševski.
Besides OKC, it could be interesting to pair Holmgren with Cade Cunningham and what’s brewing in Detroit, but those poor Pistons fans might get Darko Milicic flashbacks if Holmgren starts out poorly. I also like the idea of bringing him along slowly in Indiana behind/alongside Myles Turner, with Tyrese Haliburton and Rick Carlisle coming up with innovative ways to put Holmgren in positions to succeed.
On a scale from 1-10, Holmgren’s situational dependence rates at a 9.5. He is this draft’s ultimate boom-or-bust prospect. Any and all scenarios are in play for his career.
