Why #1 Seed Arizona Advances
They are elite in almost every facet of the game. The Wildcats are third nationally in points per game (84.6), second in scoring margin with a 17 point per game difference, third in field goal percentage (49.56%), fifth in free throws made (541), 12th in assist-turnover ratio (1.51), 2nd in defensive rebounds per game (29.91), 8th in blocks per game (5.7), 11th in opponent field goal percentage (38.74%), and third in NET rating,. They are an offensive juggernaut with multiple options on every possession.. They attack the rim continuously, with guards that can get to the rim, and bigs that can punish defenders in the paint. They play fast, getting out in transition to create easy scoring chances. They have two bigs 6’11 or taller, and most teams simply can’t match up physically with them. On defense, they are long, active, switchable and hunt down every rebound. They don’t have elite defensive numbers, but a lot of that can be attributed to the number of possessions because of their pace. The Wildcats have been one of the best teams the entire season for a reason. As a final cherry on top of the statistical masterpiece, sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin returned to school and has developed into one of the sport’s premier players. The 6’6 Canadian has averaged 17.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and a steal per game. This team is versatile, bruising, athletic and deep. Watch out for the Wildcats.
Why #1 Seed Arizona Goes Down
For all of their many strengths, Arizona does not hit the three ball often or efficiently. They rank 84th in three-pointers made and 87th in three-point field goal percentage. No Wildcat that is consistently in the rotation clears 38% from deep, and none have made more than 78 threes this season. As forceful as they are in and around the paint, a team with phenomenal outside shooting needs one hot game from downtown to keep up with the Wildcats. To magnify that deficiency, Arizona is 133rd in three-point defense. They are a great team, but the three-point line, on both ends of the court, could be their Achilles’ heel.
Sweet 16 Sleeper
Ohio State Buckeyes
The team that is just 1-4 in their last four games, and was eliminated in their first game of the Big Ten tournament? In a word, yes. The Buckeyes are much better than their recent record indicates, with key players Kyle Young and Zed Key missing multiple games with injury. They still may not be available, but the chance they can play is promising. Ohio State also features one of the best two-way players in the country in EJ Liddell. The 6’7 junior forward is averaging 20 points, eight rebounds, 2.5 assists and almost three blocks per game. One of the most prolific players in the region, Liddell is capable of carrying the Buckeyes to success. If one player isn’t enough offensive firepower, freshman guard [Malaki Branham] has become a really difficult cover too. The 6’5 guard is averaging 21 points over his last eight games and is hitting 43% of his threes this season. They have the size, shooting, experience and coaching to feel that the last couple games were just piling up injuries and some cold spells from behind the arc.
Final Four Sleeper
Illinois Fighting Illini
I am still bitter that Illinois, my pick for the title last year, fell early to Loyola-Chicago. Nonetheless, they still have an ultra-talented roster with plenty of experience. Everything Illinois wants to do on both ends of the court goes through the 7’0 Jamaican center Kofi Cockburn. The dominant big man was named a semi-finalist for the Naismith Men’s Player of the Year award for good reason. He is averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds, almost a steal and block per game, while shooting 60% from the floor. Cockburn can’t stretch the floor, but they have four guards who can. Trent Frazier was a culture-changing player and is one of their offensive keys. Alphonso Plummer is their best shooter, canning over 90 threes on 41% shooting. Andre Curbelo needs to have the game slow down, but he is one of the most skilled and visionary passers in the tournament. If everything clicks, Cockburn dominates the interior while the guards drain threes and force turnovers, the Illini have a fighting chance at the Final Four.
Top First Round Matchup
7 Ohio State v 10 Loyola Chicago
Ohio State has the talent to make a surprise run, but Loyola Chicago has tremendous guard play. The Rambler’s three top scorers all shoot above 39% from deep, and all seven of their leading scorers are upperclassmen. Loyola always seems to have something extra in their sleeve for a stunning March run. Ohio State has forward Liddell, and Loyola-Chicago has senior guard [Lucas Williamson]. Williamson has averaged 14 points, five rebounds, three assists and 1.3 steals a game. There are a lot of intriguing questions surrounding this matchup. Can Jamari Wheeler suffocate Williamson? Can Ohio State navigate their recent struggles? Can Sister Jean guide the Ramblers to a win? The questions drive up the intrigue, as does the general uncertainty about the winner. It should be one of the best opening games of the tournament.
Top Potential Player Showdown
Bennedict Mathurin vs Kennedy Chandler
If Tennessee faces Arizona, somewhere the basketball gods are smiling. Mathurin vs Chandler would be absolutely electric. Both are incredible players, while sharing some similarities and differences. Both young guards are tremendous at using their speed in transition and can get to the basket quickly. Each player excels on the defensive end of the floor; Mathurin’s size allows him to guard multiple positions, and Kennedy is a stellar on-ball defender, averaging more than two steals per game. The differences are almost more enticing than the unique athleticism. The Tennessee point guard is more of a true initiator, ranked as the best guard in last year’s class because of the way he uses handling and change of pace to create open space for cutters and shooters. He has a knack for reading the defense before attacking its weakest point. Kennedy is also a better outside shooter, knocking down 37% from deep. Mathurin is more of a scoring guard, using his size and burst to get easy shots in the half court and transition. The former four-star is the better rebounder and takes better care of the ball. The Wildcat guard has played his way into the lottery, while Kennedy should hear his name called early because of his ridiculous ceiling. Guard play often dominates March; few would be better guard matchups than this.
Top Under The Radar Matchup
5 Houston vs 12 UAB
The Cougars didn’t seem pleased with the five seed they were handed by the committee. They are third in NET ranking and have one of the stingiest defenses in all of college basketball. However, they only faced one ranked team, and lost. UAB is not ranked, but they do have a phenomenal offense, putting up the sixth most points per game this season (80.7). Houston is the better, more well-rounded unit, but they have to face Jordan Walker, who is 14th in the nation with 20.4 points per game. If Walker can get hot, he can be the difference maker for the Blazers, and could help them have a real chance against the Houston defense. Even if there is no Cinderella story for UAB, this is one of the most enticing games from an entertainment standpoint, with the small school star scorer vs. the excellent defense of Houston.
Top Five NBA Prospects
1/ Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona
I have already raved about him, but he is such a special player. It was clearly the right call to return to college, and the extra year has helped with his shot selection and decision making. He needs a three-point shot, but that can be added to the great arsenal of tricks he already possesses.
2. Malaki Branham, Ohio State
The freshman out of Colombus has exploded in Conference play, particularly over the past month, and become the team’s biggest outside threat. He knocks down 42% of his three point shots and has shown amazing maturity for a freshman. If he has a strong showing in the tourney, he can solidify his chances to leave and become a one and done first rounder, possibly even a lottery selection.
3. Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
The other member of the best potential player matchup, Kennedy’s insane blend of speed, athleticism and vision give shades of the modern point guard. Capable of getting to the rim, hitting threes and dishing, all while playing faster than the opposing defense.
4. Christian Koloko, Arizona
Arizona’s bigman is not only one of the best rim protectors in the tournament, he has shown the ability to step out to the perimeter and knock down shots, making him very appealing to NBA teams as the ability to stretch the floor is such an asset.
5. EJ Liddell, Ohio State
Liddell combines impressive strength to move defenders in the post, and the speed to outrun bigger players in transition. Lidell also is a elite rebounder and defender, and a versatile scorer. He can shut down three positions, and can play either forward spot. His basketball ability is clear, but his value is limited because of his age, shooting and lack of high-end athleticism.
