Why #1 Seed Kansas Advances
Kansas is well coached and has a lot of experienced talent on their roster. Led by seniors Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, and Arizona State transfer Remy Martin who have all played in the tournament before Kansas will look to defend their number one seed. Kansas also relies on Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson who both are averaging over 10 points per game this year. Agbaji is a very talented scorer averaging over 19 points per game, and he can really get hot quick. Even if you shut down Agbaji, the Jayhawks can beat you in so many ways. The perks of being a one seed is getting a very favorable matchup to start, which Kansas should hope to use as a momentum builder.
Why #1 Seed Kansas Goes Down
The Midwest is stacked with so many different styles of teams that Kansas will have to be on their toes. We see one seeds get comfortable way too often for games of this magnitude. Auburn is probably the toughest team they could end up facing, as the Tigers are a very good defensive e team with multiple weapons. They could have easily been a one seed. This year and spent time ranked number one overall. They are also led by a hopeful top five pick in Jalen Smith who should put on a show under the bright lights for all to see. Wisconsin can also make a lot of noise if matched up with them, as they are another experienced team led by one of the top scorers in the country in Johnny Davis. Davis is a lethal scorer who is also a very solid rebounder but he has taken a beating this year and is pretty banged up right now. Iowa is another experienced defensive team that really battles. They don’t make anything easy and will battle till the final whistle. Led by Keegan Murray, who is one of the top five scorers in the nation averaging over 23.5 points per game. Murray got hot at the right time, breaking the record for points in a Big10 tournament on his way to winning the finals.
Sleeper Sweet 16 Team
Colgate Raiders
They for sure have a tough route to get to the sweet 16, but if Johnny Davis is still not 100% health wise and struggles, they can hang with Wisconsin. LSU or Iowa State would be their next matchup and they are both favorable. LSU is not a good offensive team at all and if Colgate can deal with their defense, they should be able to win. Iowa State really struggled down the stretch, losing three in a row (two by 17+). Colgate can definitely reach the sweet 16 if they play their cards right.
Sleeper Elite Eight Team
Iowa Hawkeyes
They are red hot right now as a team, entering the tourney winning four straight and nine of their last ten. This team is very solid on the defensive side of the court, with multiple scorers as well. Keegan Murray is one of the top players in this region and he has the talent to carry this team. Sixth year senior Jordan Bohannon is the second leading scorer for Iowa, and he can really shoot it. Bohannon is a very clutch player and will definitely have the ball in his hands a lot down the stretch of games. Especially after his game winner to send them to the finals of the Big10 tourney.
Final Four Sleeper Team
Auburn Tigers
Auburn is ranked 2 so not exactly a sleeper but would need to pull an upset over Kansas to make it. They can get hot like no other team, as they won 19 games in a row at one point this season. A run like that under the bright lights is very possible. Especially if possible first overall pick Jabari Smith puts on a show. The Tigers play great team defense and unselfish offensively. They can hang with any team in the country when hot. They will for sure be a tough out and I expect them to play with a lot of passion after how they ended the season and not receiving a one seed.
Top First Round Matchup
Colgate-Wisconsin
Wisconsin could definitely be on upset watch, especially if Johnny Davis isn’t right. Colgate is a sneaky team with five players averaging double digits this season. Colgate reached the tournament last season with mostly the same core, so look for that experience to show up in what should be a slow-paced half-court game.
Top Potential Showdown
Keegan Murray vs. Jabari Smith
Murray and Smith have similar playing styles and should be a very fun potential matchup in the elite eight. Murray is a sophomore while Smith is a freshman, but both have secured their roles as go to guys for their teams. Both players are likely to be top 10 picks this year, with Jabari in the running to go first, so it is definitely a matchup of two intriguing prospects.
Top Five Draft Prospects
1. Jabari Smith– Forward, Auburn
Jabari is a very intriguing prospect as he is only 18 years old and has such a polished game. He shoots the ball incredibly for a guy standing at 6’10” and he is a very plus defender. He has a very good stroke from deep and projects to shoot a very good percentage from NBA range. His shooting splits were 43/42/81 and that is pretty impressive. The only real red flag is that he has to improve his shot from inside the three-point line, as he almost shot better from deep than he did from the floor.
2. Keegan Murray– Forward, Iowa
Murray is an ideal four in today’s NBA game. Standing at 6’8”, he is a very active rebounder who can score from all three levels. He averaged 23 points this season on 55/40/74 splits while also grabbing over eight rebounds per game. Murray is a very solid defender as well, averaging over two blocks and one steal per game. The biggest red flag on Murray is that he is a 21-year-old sophomore and will be close to 22 come draft time. But as a player, he is as legit as they come. Despite his age, he could be a mid lottery pick on draft night.
3. Johnny Davis– Guard, Wisconsin
Davis is an incredible scorer whose season ended on a rough patch due to injuries. He averaged over 19 points and eight rebounds per game this year. He is an active defender who can block a shot every once and a while and is aggressive on ball forcing takeaways. The only red flags on Davis are that he is not very efficient from the field, shooting under 44% and that he does not project to shoot great from NBA range, but that is fixable.
4. Ochai Agbaji– Guard, Kansas
The senior guard has had a big role at Kansas since his freshman year, and this season he was special. Averaging just under 20 points per game to go with five rebounds. At 6’5” he has good size for a guard and a very solid shot. Ochai got better every year and his percentages from the field and from deep increased every year despite his role growing. This season, he shot a career best from the field (47%), the free throw line (77%), and from deep (40%), while taking the more shots from each then ever before. Agbaji is a very solid player who shoots well from NBA range. He needs to become better at drawing fouls and being more active on defense, but he should also be a lottery pick.
5. Tari Eason– Forward, LSU
The 6’8” sophomore has had a very good season for the Tigers, averaging just under 17 points per game while shooting 52% from the field. He also averaged over 6.5 rebounds per game to go along with one block and two steals. Eason is a very solid two-way player who can take over a game very quickly. After a mediocre freshman season where he did not shoot well, he has raised his percentages from all three levels a lot. From the field, he rose to 52% from 46%, while his shot from deep also drastically improved from 24% to 35%. From the line he jumped from rough 57% to a very respectable 79%. Eason should only keep getting better as he continues to work and should be a fun player to watch at the next level.
