Chalk largely held in the East Region, with No. 5 St. John’s standing as the lone team to shake things up with its upset over Kansas in one of the most thrilling games of the opening weekend. Kansas battled all the way back, but the Red Storm made just enough plays late to survive, capped by a Dylan Darling layup at the buzzer. Elsewhere, both UConn and Michigan State looked dominant in their opening games, setting the stage for what shapes up as one of the strongest regions in the Sweet 16, featuring a monster slate of coaches, minus Bill Self.
#1 Duke vs. #5 St. John’s
Duke survived a first-round scare against a feisty Siena team, and many thought the ailing Blue Devils might be in trouble. Instead, they advanced and then handled TCU by 23. Meanwhile, St. John’s rolled past Northern Iowa before needing a last-second layup against Kansas to move on. Now the two teams square off, and the matchup between Cameron Boozer and Zuby Ejiofor will be appointment viewing. Boozer’s ability to score inside or facilitate from the perimeter makes Duke’s offense difficult to contain. Rick Pitino is a master tactician, so it will be interesting to see what kind of scheme he deploys to slow him down. This game could come down to turnovers. If St. John’s can take advantage of Caleb Foster being out and create easy transition opportunities, they have a path. Still, Duke’s overall talent and balance give them the edge.
Prediction: Duke 74, St. John’s 68
Match up to Watch:
Cameron Boozer vs. Zuby Ejiofor
St. John’s team defense will provide a real test for Boozer, with multiple bodies and physicality thrown his way. Ejiofor has the size and strength to match up with Boozer on the interior and won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. Boozer, however, gets the nod in overall skill and versatility, with the ability to score inside, face up, and facilitate. It sets up a compelling contrast in styles between Boozer’s polished, multi-level game and St. John’s physical, defensive-minded approach.
#2 UConn vs. #3 Michigan State
This matchup features two teams that share the ball extremely well, making execution and disruption key. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the engine for Michigan State, and UConn will need to find a way to contain his ability to both score and facilitate. Expect Dan Hurley to mix coverages to try and make him more one-dimensional. Coen Carr brings explosive athleticism but is more effective when set up rather than creating in the half court. UConn will likely focus on making him earn everything. On the other end, the Huskies need improved perimeter shooting. Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins will need to hit shots, while Alex Karaban has been the most reliable option from deep.
Prediction: UConn 68, Michigan State 65
Matchup to watch:
This matchup presents a clear contrast in styles. Carr brings elite athleticism and plays above the rim, thriving in transition and as an energy finisher. Karaban counters with skill, shooting, and polish, operating as a floor spacer and half-court weapon. UConn holds the advantage here, but Karaban will need to consistently create separation and knock down shots to neutralize Carr’s athletic impact. If he can do that, it tilts this matchup in the Huskies’ favor.
Final Four Prediction
If the top two seeds advance, this sets up one of the best matchups of the tournament. Duke and UConn have combined to go 65-7 this season, showcasing depth, balance, and high-end talent. Getting Patrick Ngongba II back closer to full strength could be critical, as Duke will need interior presence to slow UConn’s frontcourt. Tarris Reed Jr. has been dominant, highlighted by a 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman. While repeating that is unlikely against Boozer, his ability to compete inside will be key. Ultimately, Isaiah Evans continuing his strong scoring run could be the difference. In what should be a tight, back-and-forth battle, Duke’s shot-making and star power give them a slight edge.
Prediction: Duke 79, UConn 75
