Last weekend, Virginia couldn’t avoid the upset in a narrow loss to Tennessee, setting the tone for what should be a physical and competitive region the rest of the way. Outside of that result, it was largely chalk, as Michigan, Iowa State, and Alabama each handled their matchups convincingly to reach the Sweet 16.
#1 Michigan vs. #4 Alabama
The Wolverines face the Crimson Tide in a clash of two high-powered offenses. For Michigan, senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg has been extremely efficient, while junior Aday Mara and sophomore Morez Johnson Jr. anchor the paint defensively. Alabama leans heavily on its perimeter shooting, which was on full display in a 90-65 win over Texas Tech. Players like Latrell Wrightsell have stepped up alongside Labaron Philon Jr. However, when Alabama goes cold from deep, its offense can stagnate. Michigan offers more balance, with the ability to space the floor or impose its size advantage inside. That versatility was evident in the 95-72 win over Saint Louis. Michigan’s frontcourt, featuring Lendeborg, Mara, and Johnson, arguably forms the most imposing trio in the field. Expect Michigan to assert itself physically against an Alabama defense that may struggle to match up inside.
Matchup to Watch
Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Amari Allen
Alabama will look to limit Lendeborg’s impact on both ends. Freshman Amari Allen will likely draw that assignment, presenting a major test. Allen has flashed high-level potential, but he’ll need to be a difference-maker for Alabama to have a chance. Lendeborg’s motor and feel should still lead to production, but Allen’s ability to compete physically and stay disciplined could swing key moments.
#2 Iowa State vs. #6 Tennessee
Iowa State’s depth gives it a clear advantage, particularly when it comes to generating offense. Senior guard Nate Heise has emerged as an x-factor, while Tamin Lipsey is playing some of his best basketball of the season on both ends. The Cyclones dominated Kentucky 82-63, a team that had given Tennessee problems throughout the year. When healthy, Iowa State is difficult to contain, led by the complementary frontcourt of Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic. Tennessee counters with strong guard play from Jakobi Gillespie and Bishop Boswell, but the impact of freshman Nate Ament could be limited due to a lingering injury. If Jefferson is available, Iowa State’s defensive toughness and offensive versatility should give it the edge.
Matchup to Watch:
Tamin Lipsey vs. Jakobi Gillespie
Both guards are peaking at the right time. Lipsey has emerged as one of the top defensive guards in the country, while Gillespie has showcased dynamic three-level scoring. Each player can control the game in different ways, whether through scoring or playmaking. This is a true battle of strengths, and whichever player dictates tempo and efficiency will likely tip the outcome.
Midwest Regional Final Prediction
These results would set up a Michigan vs. Iowa State matchup in the Elite Eight, featuring two teams hitting their stride. While Michigan’s frontcourt has been dominant, questions remain about its guard play, particularly with LJ Cason sidelined. Iowa State’s edge comes from its backcourt and offensive versatility. Tamin Lipsey’s control, combined with Joshua Jefferson’s point-forward ability, gives the Cyclones multiple ways to initiate offense. Milan Momcilovic’s movement shooting, along with contributions from Nate Heise and Jamarion Bateman, adds another layer of scoring punch. Iowa State looks poised to advance to the Final Four in Indianapolis, setting up a potential Big 12 rematch with Arizona. They will need to overcome the uncertainty surrounding Joshua Jefferson’s injury, but they appear capable given their depth, guard play, and overall offensive versatility.
Iowa St. 75 – Michigan 74
