The South Region delivered one of the most compelling opening weekends of the tournament, blending dominant performances with high-drama finishes. While most higher seeds held serve, the bracket was flipped when Alvaro Folgueiras buried a corner three with four seconds left to knock out No. 1 Florida, the first top seed to fall. That upset sets the stage for No. 9 Iowa to face Nebraska in a Big Ten clash with real momentum on both sides. At the top of the region, a heavyweight showdown awaits as Houston and Illinois, two top-15 teams loaded with potential lottery talent, collide in what could be one of the defining games of the Sweet 16.
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska
How they made it here:
Iowa opened the tournament with a six-point win over Clemson, controlling the game throughout aside from an early 3-3 tie. In the second round, they delivered the tournament’s biggest upset by knocking off Florida. Bennett Stirtz has been a key piece for the Hawkeyes, though he has struggled shooting (9-for-33) through two games. He has played all 40 minutes in both contests and delivered the assist on the game-winning three to send Iowa through. Nebraska, meanwhile, rolled to a 29-point win over Troy in the first round before surviving a tight two-point battle against Vanderbilt. The game came down to the final possession, where Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner missed a three-quarter-court heave that nearly dropped. Pryce Sandfort has led the way, averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 54.5% from the field and 55.5% from three through two games, anchoring a balanced and efficient Cornhuskers attack.
Key to the game:
This game will likely come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. Both teams have been strong on the glass and efficient from three, but execution in key moments should decide it. Nebraska has leaned on its structure and discipline under coach Fred Hoiberg, consistently playing with precision and minimizing errors. Iowa, meanwhile, has already proven it can beat anyone with its upset over Florida, showing toughness and composure late in games. While the Hawkeyes lack depth, their ability to execute in crunch time keeps them dangerous. The team that values possessions and stays composed down the stretch will have the edge.
Matchup to watch: Pryce Sandfort vs. Bennett Stirtz
While they play different roles, their impact will be felt throughout. Both lead their teams in scoring and have been central to their tournament success. Stirtz is due for a bounce-back shooting performance, while Sandfort has been red-hot. While not a direct matchup, it’s likely these two will be carrying their respective teams as the game reaches its closing stages, a battle of wills between two high-precision offenses. The more impactful performance could ultimately decide who advances.
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston
How they made it here:
Illinois has cruised through the first two rounds, defeating Penn and VCU by an average margin of 28 points. The Illini have shown strong offensive balance, with multiple contributors stepping up alongside projected lottery pick Keaton Wagler, and enter the Sweet 16 as the top offensive team in the field at 90.5 points per game. Houston has been just as dominant on the other end, winning its first two games against Idaho and Texas A&M by 31 points each. The Cougars have relied on elite defense and depth, allowing just 52 points per game while getting balanced scoring across the roster. Together, this sets up a clash between one of the nation’s most explosive offenses and one of its most disciplined defenses.
Key to the game:
Pace will be critical, but this matchup goes deeper than tempo. Illinois brings slightly more depth, a more skilled frontcourt, and overall experience across its rotation, giving it multiple ways to generate offense. Houston will lean on its length, athleticism, and superior defense, using physicality and discipline to disrupt rhythm and control possessions. The Cougars also bring Final Four experience from last season and won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. Illinois may have more offensive versatility, but Houston’s toughness and defensive edge could level the playing field. The team that imposes its style while limiting mistakes will have the edge.
Matchup to watch:
Keaton Wagler vs. Kingston Flemings
One of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament, these two projected lottery picks are the engines of their respective teams. As primary creators, they will frequently be matched up and will dictate the flow of the game. Wagler looks to push pace and create early offense, while Flemings focuses on control, decision-making, and making winning plays. Flemings holds the edge in speed and athleticism, while Wagler has shown a higher upside as a perimeter scorer capable of catching fire and delivering scoring bursts. Both players have an opportunity to elevate themselves into the mid-lottery range with strong performances moving forward, making this matchup even more compelling.
Final Four Prediction
Houston is set up well to emerge from the South as the highest remaining seed, and the path has opened up in a meaningful way. The Cougars bring the experience of last year’s deep run, the presence of legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson, and strong momentum entering the second weekend. The freshman tandem of Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. appear to be hitting their stride at just the right time. With No. 1 seed Florida already eliminated, the bracket has shifted in Houston’s favor. Getting past Illinois won’t be easy, as the Illini present one of the toughest offensive challenges in the field, but if Houston clears that hurdle, a matchup with a less talent-laden opponent in the Elite Eight could await. Everything is lining up for the Cougars, who look primed to return to the Final Four.
