“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Victor Wembanyama is a 19-year-old point/center/forward/??? from Le Chesnay, France, who averaged 21.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game for Metropolitans 92 in LNB Pro A, the top tier in French basketball. He is expected to be selected No. 1 overall in this (or any other) draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 1.
NBA-Specific Skills
Victor Wembanyama … what can you even say at this point?
It’s exceedingly rare to reach any level of consensus in basketball-related conversations. Today’s hoops discourse is all about actions and reactions. If I say Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA, 10 people will tell me he is overrated trash and shouldn’t even be in the same conversation as Joel Embiid. If I say Jayson Tatum is great, Devin Booker fans will take it as disrespect.
The professional basketball landscape is trapped in a negative feedback loop, where only the sharpest disagreements receive the loudest amplification. It’s not ideal.
However, in the middle of this hurricane of fury stands one impossibly tall, impossibly skilled prospect with no discernible flaws. If you’re a regular visitor of NBADraft.net – either as a scout, a player, or a fan – you have reached the same conclusions as the rest of us.
Wemby is the truth.
Wembanyama is this generation’s can’t-miss, no-doubt-about-it, superstar-in-waiting. We have seen a few consensus No. 1 overall picks reach varying degrees of success, but nobody since LeBron James has received this level of unifying praise from all corners of the basketball world.
It’s hard to see a scenario where Wembanyama ends up as an outright bust. He’s too talented. We’ve all seen the highlights. We’ve all watched the same film. Wembanyama doesn’t seem real. How does this kid already have Kevin Durant’s jumper? How does he already have Anthony Davis’s timing for weakside shot blocking? How does he already have such a low crossover? How is he freaking 7-foot-4?
There is no way to know whether Wembanyama can possibly live up to all this hype, but he has put himself in the best possible position.
On a scale from 1-10, Wembanyama’s potential rates beyond the parameters of traditional measurement. To quote Lindsay Lohan near the end of Mean Girls, the limit does not exist.
Fatal Flaws
The potential for injury exists for all players, but it is exacerbated whenever a human being is this tall.
Look … I’m reaching here. Of course, Wembanyama might get hurt. It’s basketball. It’s the first place our mind goes whenever we lay eyes on something we haven’t seen before. You’ll hear some people say he’s “too skinny,” but he’s 19 and a body this long is almost impossible to fill out. Personally, I wouldn’t want to see Wemby bulk up too much, because his cheat code lies in his quickness and his bounce. It will be tough for Wembanyama to balance strength and agility in such a unique frame, but he will have the best trainers and doctors in the world helping him along that path.
The other thing you’ll hear: “How can anyone live up to this kind of scrutiny?” It’s true. He’s entering the league with an incredible amount of pressure. The expectations are completely unreasonable. He’s six years away from being able to rent a car, but a multi-billion-dollar organization is resting its entire future on his ability to perform. Wembanayama isn’t oblivious to this, but he doesn’t seem to care much about the expectations, either. He has spent his entire teen years knowing that every eye in the gym is on him the second he steps into it. It hasn’t bothered him yet.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), the external hype machine surrounding Wembanyama is a 3 – enough to pause and consider, but not nearly enough to even think about passing on him at No. 1.
Pre-NBA Setting
Wembanyama has always been the most intriguing basketball player in any game he’s ever played up to this point. From a very early age, people have been fascinated by his incredible combination of length and fluidity. He has been on international scouts’ radars for as long as he has known how to shoot, but he went viral at age 16 in 2020 when he cooked Rudy Gobert – the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year at that time.
In ESPN’s deep-dive into Wembanyama, his history, his family, and his penchant for sketching, we see exactly how deliberate and methodical he and his inner circle have been in preparing for his NBA career. He is already ahead of the game on his diet, his conditioning, and (perhaps most importantly) his foot health. It’s almost as if they took notes on every red flag or potential pitfall that submarined similar alleged can’t-miss prospects (Ralph Sampson, Sam Bowie, Greg Oden), took copious notes, and swore never to repeat history. If anything, Wembanyama appears set to chart a course entirely his own.
On a scale from 1-10, Wembanyama pre-NBA career rates at a 10.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
I’m not an NBA general manager, but it seems to me that all 30 teams could use a player with the defensive upside of Hakeem Olajuwon and the offensive upside of Kevin Durant.
The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets each spent the majority of last season playing garbage basketball – oh, excuse me, “strategically positioning themselves to increase their lottery odds in the Wembanayama sweepstakes.”
Fate’s mystical ping pong balls favored one lucky team above all others: The Spurs.
In retrospect, we should have seen it coming. Wembanyama follows in the footsteps of David Robinson and Tim Duncan as transformational No. 1 picks and ideal mentors. The Spurs have also been among the most internationally friendly franchises, prominently featuring two of France’s greatest in Tony Parker and Boris Diaw. At 74 years young, Gregg Popovich will enter next season as the league’s most energized and optimistic coach. Popovich might coach into his 90s now.
The 2023 Spurs are a blank slate – or, in Wemby’s case, an open canvas. San Antonio’s pragmatic front office won’t rush the process. He will have every opportunity to create his masterpiece.
On a scale from 1-10, Wembanyama’s situational independence is a 10. He immediately becomes the sun in the Spurs solar system.
