“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Mark Williams is a 20-year-old center from Norfolk, Virginia, who averaged 11.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks in his sophomore season for the Duke Blue Devils. He is expected to be selected in the middle of the first round and as high as No. 10. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 13.
NBA-Specific Skills
Let’s start with the obvious: Mark Williams is enormous.
It’s difficult to stand out in a sport where most of its participants are extremely tall, but Williams often looks like a man among boys. At last month’s draft combine, Williams was the runaway champion of the “battle of the tape measure,” checking in at 7-2 in shoes with a 7-6 wingspan and a 9-9 standing reach. That’s only three inches lower than the rim if you’re scoring at home.
Williams combines his massive frame with a relentless motor and top-shelf athleticism, making him this draft’s premier rim protector. Williams blocked 2.8 shots per game in just under 24 minutes of action and altered countless more. He is quick enough to slide his feet on perimeter switches and retreat to the rim to challenge would-be layups/dunks.
It’s easy to envision a scenario where Williams – the ACC Defensive Player of the Year – develops into a one-man defensive infrastructure and a potential All-NBA Defense selection.
Offensively, Williams rarely attempts a shot he can’t slam directly through the hoop. He converted on 72.1% of his shot attempts – most of them lob dunks or putbacks. Perhaps the most encouraging stat on Williams’ offensive stat sheet is his foul shooting. He went from a Shaq-like 53.7% as a freshman to a completely respectable 72.7% as a sophomore. If Williams proves to be a consistent foul shooter, it will allow him to remain on the floor in high-leverage situations.
While he rarely attempts jump shots outside of the paint, his strong foul shooting and his soft touch around the hoop are strong indicators that this area of his game is ripe for development. But that would just be icing on the cake. Williams will earn his keep in the five feet around the rim.
On a scale from 1-10, Williams’ defensive upside rates at a 9.5.
Fatal Flaws
Let’s face it. Big men – even All-Star-caliber centers – are not the commodity they once were.
Teams built around a huge center who can’t stretch defenses with a consistent perimeter jumper or make plays from the high post often find themselves making hard lineup choices in the postseason. It’s essential to have a defensive-minded big man to help carry the load during the regular season, but coaches often relegate their offensively limited centers to spot duty when it’s gut-check time in the playoffs.
At this stage, it’s nearly impossible to project Williams developing into either a Town-level shooter or a Jokic-level passer. Those might seem like unfair standards, but such is life in the NBA.
Just like any rookie, it will take a great deal of time and patience for Williams to learn the nuances of NBA defenses – particularly the nimble dance navigating the in-between spaces in the pick and roll. Williams had his run-ins with foul trouble in the college game, and it’s sure to remain an issue for at least the first half of his rookie contract. If he can maintain confidence during those rocky stretches, Williams could evolve into a Clint Capela-style shotblocker/dive man. If not, a team might opt to sign a trusty veteran center with a lower upside.
But it’s the offensive end that will determine whether Williams can achieve his considerable upside. If he tops out as a dunk-only vertical threat and his foul shooting regresses to his freshman level, Williams will likely spend crunch time on the bench.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Williams’ offensive limitations rate at an 8.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
Williams smashed everyone they put in front of him in Virginia before he transferred to IMG Academy as a senior and entered the “elite prospect” conversation. He earned five-star recognition from all the major recruiting services and elected to join the Duke Blue Devils.
In a blog for USA Today, Williams expressed his desire to develop into a player similar to Wendell Carter. While he didn’t exhibit the 3-point shooting or passing ability Carter is known for, Williams showed up in Durham with an excellent work ethic and coachable mindset. He flashed incredible defensive upside in limited minutes as a freshman and anchored the Blue Devils’ defense during its run to the Final Four this past season.
He posted a handful of tremendous stat lines against strong competition this season (28 points/12 rebounds/3 blocks versus Syracuse, 17/9/6 against top-ranked Gonzaga, 19/11/8 against NC State), but balanced that out with some disappointing performances in must-win games. Foul trouble doomed him in the Final Four loss to North Carolina and the ACC Tournament loss to Virginia Tech.
Every Williams defender and skeptic can find evidence to back up their positions, but his growth curve is undeniably trending upward.
On a scale from 1-10, Williams’ pre-NBA career rates at an 8.5.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Williams is the kind of prospect who could contribute on opening night for a team that runs a heavy percentage of high screens and requires a backline eraser on defense.
The Charlotte Hornets at No. 13 or 15 present the ideal fit – should Williams last that long. The Hornets have desperately needed an interior defensive presence for quite some time now. It is the franchise most frequently linked with any trade rumor centered around a big man such as Rudy Gobert or Deandre Ayton. And they employ one of the NBA’s most exciting initiators/lob passers in LaMelo Ball. Williams wouldn’t even have to leave North Carolina. It seems almost too good to be true.
It will likely come down to whether teams in this late lottery/mid first range prefer Williams to Jalen Duren, the ultra-talented but exceedingly raw big man from Memphis. Williams comes to the draft as a more polished product, but Duren has the kind of untapped upside at the center position that can be too intoxicating for teams to pass up.
Elsewhere in this draft, the Atlanta Hawks are an intriguing match, especially with Capela set to enter free agency in the summer of 2023. Capela is an ideal mentor for Williams and it’s easy to see a Trae Young/Williams screen-and-dive tandem leading to several uncontested dunks, with Williams helping cover for Young’s defensive limitations.
On a scale from 1-10, Williams’ situational independence is at an 8. He isn’t the perfect fit for every situation, but for a team in need of some vertical spacing on offense and shotblocking intimidation on defense, Williams could be a steal at this point in the draft.
