“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Jaden Ivey is a 20-year-old power guard from South Bend, Indiana, who averaged 17.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.1. assists in his sophomore season for the Purdue Boilermakers. He is expected to be selected among the top-10 picks in the upcoming NBA Draft and as high as No. 2 overall. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 4.
NBA-Specific Skills
You know the expression “playing downhill”? Jaden Ivey plays basketball like he has already summited Mount Everest and he needs to sprint to the bottom as quickly as possible.
Ivey is a battering ram in the open court. He runs the break like he has been flung from a catapult and jumps like he’s the only player on the floor playing Slamball. He attacks the basket like he’ll get an extra point if he rips the rim off the backboard. He goes out of his way to dunk on people.
Defenses used to pay no mind to Ivey if he was spotting up near the 3-point line, but he has turned his jumper from a liability (25.8% as a freshman) to a legitimate threat (35.8% on high volume). When Ivey has his 3-ball falling, defenses can’t do much to slow him down.
Defensively, he plays with high energy and effort. He is at his best when his active hands and quick-twitch start-stop ability force turnovers and generate fast-break opportunities. He has an NBA-ready body (6-4, 195 pounds with a 6-8 wingspan) and a nasty competitive streak that can’t be taught.
At the pro level, Ivey has the potential to develop into an NBA difference maker, thanks to his superior athleticism and his relentless attack-first, ask-questions-later mentality.
On a scale from 1-10, Ivey’s creative, bulldozing open-floor game rates at a 9.
Fatal Flaws
Jaden Ivey’s ideal shot chart – dunks and 3s – is the physical manifestation of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Unfortunately, professional basketball still encompasses all this pesky in-between stuff – floaters, runners, opposing defenders who take charges – and Ivey still struggles in these areas.
When Ivey’s engine is revving in fifth gear, good luck slowing him down. But if a defense can keep Ivey idling in the middle gears, savvy veteran defenders can force him into low-percentage prayers off the backboard or careless turnovers. It’s possible that Ivey could set the NBA record for charges committed if he plays enough minutes his rookie season. Kyle Lowry is already falling over at the sight of him.
Despite making serious strides in this regard, his shooting is still best described as “streaky.” If shots aren’t falling, Ivey is prone to force the issue. If he isn’t filling up the scoring column, he isn’t a strong enough playmaker to shift his game in that direction.
Ivey’s go-go-go mentality gets him in trouble on defense, too. He can get so caught up in trying to make the highlight-level play that he will lose track of his assignment. He can get so overeager to make an incredible steal that he will pick up a foul 40 feet from the hoop.
Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards didn’t maximize their tremendous abilities until the game slowed down around them. Ivey’s potential rests entirely on his ability to pace himself.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Ivey’s reluctance to shift gears rates at an 8.
Pre-NBA Setting
Ivey was a multi-sport standout in Indiana before locking in on basketball. He wasn’t the same kind of Mr. Gatorade Nike McDonald’s Jordan All-Star type of prospect as most of his lottery-bound counterparts, but he graduated high school as a four-star recruit with his pick of scholarships from many of the Midwest’s best basketball programs.
With offers to become a Hoosier, a Fighting Irish, a Bulldog, or a Buckeye, he elected to become a Boilermaker.
He earned Big Ten All-Freshman honors his rookie year, impressing in a complementary role early in the season before emerging as Purdue’s go-to offensive option toward the end of the season. He hit the ground running during his sophomore campaign and racked up a spot on the All-Big Ten First Team and second team All-American.
Ivey was a big reason why many bracket pundits picked 3-seeded Purdue to make a deep tourney run, but Ivey struggled against the Cinderella squad from Saint Peters, bringing his college career to an abrupt end.
Ivey experienced tremendous growth during his college career, and he still has significant untapped upside, even though he is a year older than many of this draft’s elite prospects.
On a scale from 1-10, Ivey’s pre-NBA career rates at an 8.5.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Any front office drafting Ivey in hopes of converting him to a 35-minutes-per-game point guard should instead take a long, hard look around the room and consider replacing every single member of its staff. Ivey isn’t an orchestrator. He is a chaos agent. You wouldn’t hire Mozart to knock down a building, and you wouldn’t bring in a wrecking ball to conduct a symphony.
Ivey’s name has been floated in that group of prospects just below the Holmgren/Smith/Banchero triumvirate. Sacramento seems to love nothing more than to take athletic tweener guards and force them to battle it out for minutes and shots. How’s that working out so far?
Detroit is a popular landing spot for Ivey, as he would have Cade Cunningham doing the heavy lifting in the playmaking department, allowing Ivey to do what he does best. . Oklahoma City would be a similar situation with ivey potentially playing alongside another big playmaker in Josh Giddey, with the Thunder rumored to be shopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander .
Ivey’s best bet to succeed will be to find a team with an established floor general who can find him on the break and allow him to play with freedom.
On a scale from 1-10, Ivey’s situational independence is at an 8. He should be able to bully his way to the rim with elite strength, speed, and athleticism, but he needs to find the right coaching staff to help guide him through the finer points of NBA basketball.
