“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Jabari Smith is a 19-year-old forward from Fayetteville, Georgia, who averaged 16.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 block per game in his freshman season for the Auburn Tigers. He is expected to be selected among the top-3 picks in the upcoming NBA Draft and as high as No. 1 overall. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 1.
NBA-Specific Skills
During this year’s NBA playoffs, one statistic seems to determine winning above all others. Did your team make a bunch of 3s? Congratulations, you probably won by double digits. Did your team brick a ton of 3s? Sorry, better luck next time.
Based on that metric alone, Jabari Smith is this draft’s most valuable asset.
Smith is the best shooter in the draft – full stop. Not “best shooter at his position.” Not “best shooter for his height.” Best shooter. Period.
His height (6-10) and length (7-foot wingspan) only make his shooting prowess that much more lethal. His jumper has an unblockable release point. He lines up the ball high above his head and fires it at the top of his jump. He can get his shot off against any individual defender. Opponents simply cross their fingers and hope he misses.
Smith canned 42% of his 3-pointers during his freshman season on 5.5 attempts per game – many of them fully defended and/or late in the shot clock. Smith did not feast on a ton of “easy looks” on an Auburn squad that often relied on him to make his own offense. He will undoubtedly play alongside better guards and with better spacing in the NBA.
Smith is a potentially elite catch-and-shoot player, should he find himself surrounded by creative pass-first ball handlers, and he is an efficient off-the-bounce shooter from deep. He can grab a defensive rebound, dribble the length of the floor, and comfortably step into a 3 before the defense has a chance to set itself.
Despite Smith’s gifts as a shooter, he doesn’t settle for 3s on every possession. If a defender is crowding him, Smith is comfortable taking him off the dribble and getting to the line.
Defensively, Smith plays smart and uses his length effectively. He isn’t an intimidator by any means, but he rarely finds himself out of position. Smith’s calling card, however, is that sweet jumper. It’s difficult to imagine Smith as a bust. Anyone who can shoot like this (especially at his height) will have a spot on an NBA starting lineup for at least a decade.
On a scale from 1-10, Smith’s perimeter shooting ability rates at a 10.
Fatal Flaws
Franchise players need to do much more than shoot. Can Smith’s overall floor game catch up with his top-shelf shooting ability?
Perhaps it’s unfair to judge him on this metric given his supporting cast in Auburn, but Smith has yet to flash the elite playmaking skills NBA teams require from their franchise cornerstones. He posted an even assist-to-turnover ratio, and it’s unclear if he will ever develop that innate passing sense. He can hit an open teammate, but Smith has yet to show whether he can make that second- or third-level pass that creates an opening before it exists.
He is a good-but-not-great rebounder and rim protector for a 6-10 player. Granted, he had to play alongside Walker Kessler – a tremendous shotblocker and rebounder in his own right – but Smith doesn’t appear to have that Evan Mobley-esque “anchor a defense” mentality.
It’s easy to see why many Smith fans float the Kevin Durant comparison, but Durant’s game was much more well-rounded coming out of Texas. Durant is obviously the dream scenario, but at this stage, it’s more appropriate for a fanbase to expect a Rashard Lewis level of production as Smith’s body fills out and he can add more pieces to his game. If Smith hits the weight room and gets serious about his film study, he could develop into a player like Jayson Tatum, but that will take time – perhaps the duration of his rookie contract – before he hits those heights.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Smith’s ability to develop the rest of his game rates at a 7.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
Smith was one of the best high school players in the history of Georgia before hitting the recruiting scene. He won every significant Georgia-specific award he could win as a senior and earned a spot on all the elite postseason teams. He was a known quantity and a consensus top-10 recruit before committing to Auburn, making him the highest-rated non-football recruit to ever commit to the Tigers.
The Tigers won 28 games and finished first in the SEC en route to a No. 2 seed before being upset by a relentless Miami squad. Smith flashed several moments of brilliance during his lone season in Auburn, but NBA fans and scouts were often frustrated by how much of a struggle it seemed to get Smith the ball in positions where he could succeed. Let’s just say this was not an offense where the ball flowed freely.
If Smith found himself in a more open offense that resembles the NBA style of play, perhaps he would have enjoyed an even more successful college campaign. But since it appears as if he played himself into the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick, it seems silly to criticize anything at this point.
On a scale from 1-10, Smith’s pre-NBA career rates at a 7.5.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Smith’s shooting ability will allow him to succeed anywhere, but my personal preference is to see him spotting up alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and that wild squad Sam Presti is building in Oklahoma City.
It would be impossible for Smith to avoid “young Durant” comparisons if he ended up on the Thunder, but that roster seems tailor-made for his unique skillset. He would feast on open jumpers with more space than he would know what to do with.
But many mock drafts currently have the Orlando Magic leaning toward Smith. He would step onto the court day one as Orlando’s best shooter and would give those long-suffering fans a reminder of those Dwight Howard-era Magic teams that thrived thanks in large part to Rashard Lewis’s shooting ability at 6-10. A frontcourt of Franz Wagner in the Hedo Turkoglu role and Smith as a next-generation Lewis is a sneaky League Pass destination.
It seems unlikely that Smith would fall outside of the top-2 picks, but Houston would eagerly snap him up at 3 to fill out the roster alongside Jalen Green. Out of all the teams picking in the top-5, Houston is probably the trickiest fit for Smith, as there aren’t a lot of creative playmakers on that roster, and he would be battling for shots/minutes with several other young players who are in stat-collection mode to try to lock in that first major contract extension.
On a scale from 1-10, Smith’s situational independence rates at a 9. Shooters like Smith can thrive anywhere, but it would give Smith a leg up if he found himself on a roster with established playmakers that would allow Smith to develop his full game at his pace.
