“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Anthony Black is a 19-year-old point wing from Texas who averaged 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game for the Arkansas Razorbacks. He is expected to be selected in the lottery in this year’s draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 6.
NBA-Specific Skills
It can take some players years to learn how to properly navigate a pick and roll. Some never learn it at all.
Anthony Black has it mastered and he can’t legally buy a beer yet.
Black displays a remarkable amount of poise and shiftiness when running a two-man game. He is never in a hurry – he plays at his pace and forces the defender to do so, as well. At 6-7, he can see over most defenders and find passing lanes few others can identify. He reminds me of Josh Giddey in this regard – neither will wow you with otherworldly athleticism, but their unselfish demeanor and advanced court sense will result in some spectacular plays for their teammates.
Black’s game will age well, as he doesn’t rely on outlandish run-and-jump gifts. Instead, Black gets to where he wants to go with a series of hesitations and surprising start-and-stop bursts. He isn’t a knockdown shooter yet, but the base fundamentals seem to be in place.
He does all the little things that add up to major contributions – a clutch rebound in traffic here, a taken charge there, a key steal, a tip-out. He can also contribute in an off-ball situation alongside a heavy-usage lead guard, thanks to his excellent secondary playmaking ability and his unique court vision.
Black is one of those players who seems destined to thrive in the additional spacing provided in the NBA, as opposed to the more congested college game.
Defensively, he can switch across any perimeter position, and he battles hard on the glass. He also averaged more than two steals per game for the Arkansas Razorbacks, as he was a menace in the passing lanes.
On a scale from 1-10, Black’s pick-and-roll ability rates at a 9.
Flaws
For someone this savvy and fundamentally sound, why don’t more of his shots go in?
He converted on only 30% of his 3-point attempts and 70% of his free throws – extremely concerning numbers, given how much he relies on his pick-and-roll aptitude. What kind of plays is he going to be able to make in the two-man game if every defender simply sags under the screen and dares him to shoot.
If Black develops into a 38% 3-point shooter and an 80% foul shooter, we could be looking at a potential All-Star. If those numbers remain mediocre, however, it could be hard for Black to define his role at this level.
He is also a high-turnover player at this stage of his development, averaging roughly three per game. He will need to cut down on the miscues if an NBA team is going to trust him with even a secondary playmaking role.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Black’s shooting inconsistency rates at an 8.5.
Pre-NBA Setting
Black had an up-and-down high school career, bouncing around Duncanville-area high schools due to some eligibility issues. He found ways to fill the stat sheets in the games he did play and found himself back on the high-major recruiting circles. Along with teammate Ronald Holland, he guided Duncanville to knock off a loaded number one ranked Monteverde team in December. After thinking about the G League route, Eric Musselman convinced him to come to Arkansas.
The Razorbacks entered the 2022-23 season with a loaded squad, and many expected Black to team with Nick Smith for the nation’s most explosive backcourt. Injuries kept Smith on the sidelines until just before SEC play, and the duo never quite clicked in the way people expected them to. It was a bit of your turn/my turn until they found their groove together late in the season.
Even when his shot wasn’t falling, Black always found ways to contribute. That habit will serve him well at the next level.
On a scale of 1-10, Black’s pre-NBA career rates at a 7.5. He didn’t rack up the high school/collegiate honors that most of his lottery counterparts did, but he has played his way into the top-10 conversation.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Black needs to find a team and a coaching staff that will trust him with the ball in his hands and allow him the chance to develop at his own pace – and won’t yank around his minutes at the first signs of struggle.
Black is a “feel” player. He will make mistakes, especially early in his rookie season, but he will eventually settle into the rhythm of a game and make winning plays if given the opportunity.
His approach is similar to Cade Cunningham’s, and it would be interesting to see them trading off pick-and-roll responsibilities in Detroit, but I think Black’s best fit would be in Orlando. That is a team that doesn’t need another high-volume shooter but could benefit from an unselfish table-setter who can exploit mismatches and make it hard for defenses to zero in on Paolo Banchero isolations.
Elsewhere in the lottery, I expect the Washington Wizards to take a long look at Black, as will the Dallas Mavericks. Black could fill the Spencer Dinwiddie role of running the offense when Luka Doncic needs a breather.
On a scale from 1-10, Black’s situational dependence is an 8.5. Every team needs a heady, rangy playmaker, but not all of them are patient enough to let them develop at their own pace. Black could make a meaningful difference for a team creative and patient enough to allow him room to grow.
