Why #1 Seed Baylor Advances:
Did you see what they did last season? Scott Drew knows how to win in March and Baylor has only lost 12 games over the course of the last three seasons. In short, they are on an incredible roll, and already have wins this year against a one seed in Kansas, a two seed in Villanova, and two six seeds in Alabama and Texas so they’ve shown an ability to beat high level teams this year already. This team is well balanced and well constructed, as shown by the conference awards this year, where Scott won the Coach of the Year, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (who is out for the year) was Co-defensive Player of the Year, Jeremy Sochan won Sixth Man of the Year, and James Akinjo made the First Team All-Big 12 Team. They had three players within .1 point of being their scoring leader with Adam Flagler (pictured) in a dead heat (13.4) with Akinjo (13.4) and Cryer (13.5). Flagler appears to be the most talented of the three guards. All of that is a complicated way of saying this: Baylor has a roster full of dudes that can really play, they complement each other well, and don’t lose very often. They won it last year and will be looking to be the first team to repeat since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
Why #1 Seed Baylor Goes Down:
Have you seen their region? There is a chance that their second game comes against a North Carolina team that recently ran a talented Duke team off the court. And if they don’t have to play UNC, it’s because they’ll be playing a Marquette team coached by Shaka Smart, a coach familiar with coach Drew and Baylor from his time coaching at Texas. But let’s assume they get past that challenge, they could find themselves facing off against a UCLA team that made it to the Final Four last season, or against a Saint Mary’s team that just happens to have a win against the number one overall seed in the tournament. If they get past that, they can probably expect to see either a Purdue team that is elite offensively and on any given night can beat anybody, or a Kentucky team that has the presumptive National Player of the Year in Oscar Tshiebwe. All of that is a complicated way of saying that despite their status as a number one seed, there are a number of teams capable of beating them, especially with players like Tchamwa Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer sidelined with injuries.
Sweet 16 Sleeper
North Carolina/Marquette winner
In all honesty, it’s difficult to see a Sweet 16 team in this region with a seed number higher than 5. The region is top heavy and the good lower seeded teams have really tough matchups looming to get there. I really like Murray State, but they simply aren’t beating Kentucky if they make it past San Francisco. Virginia Tech is on a massive heater, but can they be expected to upend Purdue? Indiana is hot, and there always seems to be a First Four team that sticks around deep into the tourney, but Wyoming, Saint Mary’s, and UCLA could all stand in the way and that’s a tough trio of games. So the winner of North Carolina/Marquette is the dark horse here because of Baylor’s injury woes and the fact that both teams are better than the Oklahoma team that just beat Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament.
Final 4 Sleeper
UCLA Bruins
If it’s difficult to see a seed higher than 5 in the Sweet 16, it becomes really difficult to project a low seed into the Final Four. Because I refuse to consider a top three seed a sleeper, that means Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue are out of the running here. So the pick is UCLA. Heck, they did it last year, so maybe a return trip is in the cards. They have the players to get them there in Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaque, Jules Bernard, and Tyger Campbell leading the charge. It is a real possibility Mick Cronin’s group finds themselves in New Orleans in early April.
Top 1st Round Matchup
Murray St. vs. San Francisco
The metrics really like Murray St. and San Francisco, and their first round matchup should be a good one. San Francisco is led by two senior guards in Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz and also have size in 6’10” Yauhen Massalski who nearly averaged a double-double with 13.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per contest. Meanwhile, Murray State is led by two guards Tevin Brown and Justice Hill and a 6’10” big man in K.J. Williams, who averaged 18.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. This game will be two teams that are going strength vs. strength and have been more or less under the radar for casual fans that don’t follow mid major leagues like the Ohio Valley and West Coast Conference.
Top Potential Player Matchup
Jaden Ivey vs. Tyty Washington
If Purdue and Kentucky advance to play each other, all eyes will be on the guard matchup of Ivey and Washington. Ivey is a top 5 pick and Washington likely slots in somewhere between 5 and 15. Ivey is far more prolific and plays a bigger role for his team, but Washington will be looking to prove himself against one of the top guards in the entire nation. Ivey averaged 17.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists while Washington averaged 12.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4 assists. The two players combined for 17 games of 20 or more points, so a matchup between the two could see some explosive scoring. Even if they don’t score, they still impact the game as Ivey had multiple 10 rebounds games, while Washington had 12 rebounds in a game and also had a 17 assist game. The two guards will be appointment tv to see who comes out on top. Not only will it be a matchup that could have draft implications, but the winner would be heading to the Elite 8.
Top Under the Radar Matchup
Texas vs Virginia Tech
Texas opened the season highly ranked, but struggled mightily relative to expectations. As a result, they didn’t get as much shine in the media as you might expect from a 6 seed, leading them to fall off the national radar to some degree. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech didn’t have a prayer of making the tournament until their impressive run through the ACC Tournament. So while these are two teams that lacked a reason to follow them closely for large chunks of the season, now it’s a matchup between a Virginia Tech team that just ran through three tournament teams (Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Duke) and a Texas squad that lost 11 games, but 5 of those losses were to teams that are top 3 seeds (Kansas, Baylor, and Texas Tech).
Top 5 NBA Prospects
1. Jaden Ivey – Purdue
Ivey is a guard that’s capable of scoring in a variety of ways. His ability to impact the game in multiple ways and make plays when his team needs them the most portend good things for his NBA career. While Purdue has good players around him, Ivey is the player that truly makes this team go. He developed every facet of his game after last season and added a much more reliable three point jumpshot. That growth should lead him to be a top five pick in this upcoming draft.
2. TyTy Washington – Kentucky
As mentioned earlier, Ivey is not the only guard in the region with a promising pro career in from of him. Washington struggled throughout the year while dealing with lower body injuries, but when he’s been healthy he’s shown a knack for scoring in an extremely efficient manner. He rarely gets sped up by defenders and is able to find his spots on the court. He set a Kentucky record with 17 assists (with 17 points) when filling in for Sahvir Wheeler, and is also the only player all season to outrebound Oscar Tshiebwe in a game. He doesn’t make a ton of highlight reel plays, but he makes winning basketball plays and is one of the more solid players in this region.
3. Jeremy Sochan – Baylor
A 6’9”, 230 pound freshman, Sochan hasn’t been the focal point of the Bears, and only started one game this season, but he has all of the physical traits you look for in a future pro and while he needs to refine his skill set, there are a lot of things to like about his game. How much of that gets seen in this tournament is yet to be determined, but you can expect to see him rebound the ball and make plays defensively when he’s in the game. Don’t let his averages of 8.8 points and 6.2 rebounds fool you, this young man has a future in the league.
4. Oscar Tshiebwe – Kentucky
Like Edey, Tshiebwe is not a lock to make a major impact at the NBA level, and may even consider returning to the college game next season. But he is a front runner for National Player of the Year and leads Kentucky in scoring (17.0), blocks (1.6), steals (1.8) and leads the entire nation in rebounding (15.2), rebounding percentage (27.4), and double-doubles (27). He’s not the best pro prospect in the region, but he may very well be the best college player in the tournament and his rebounding will likely get him a job in the pros somewhere when he’s ready to declare.
5. Jamaree Bouyea, San Francisco
One of the top senior prospects in the country, Bouyea is a tlaented and athletic lead guard. He had a disappointing end to what was a promising super-senior year. He really looked stifled when facing Gonzaga in their two most recent match ups as Chet Holmgren’s length and rim protecting abilities seemed to completely take him out of his driving game. He’s an athletic point guard with slick ball handling and excels in the up tempo game. He’s a streaky scorer who needs to add better consistency. A strong performance in the tourney could get him some first round looks.
