NBA Draft: Stock WatchBy: Aran_Smith

Rising:

Evan Turner 6-6 205 PG/SG Ohio St. Jr.

Evan Turner was supposed to miss 6 weeks but mended quickly and was able to
return after only a month missing just 6 ball games. His loss was felt
as the Buckeyes split those games going 3-3.

Turner didn’t take long to get back into the swing of things.

The junior star showed that his early season heroics against lesser
competition was no fluke with his 32 point, 9 rebound effort, leading
the Buckeyes past Purdue on Tuesday.

With 4 minutes remaining in the game, down 10 points (62-52) Turner put
together the most impressive performance of any player so far
this year.

In just his third game back, with his Mom watching in the arena, playing against one of the stingiest defenses in college basketball,
Turner put Ohio State on his back.

He scored 14 straight points as the Purdue guards could not contain his penetration and he got to the rim virtually at will. His barrage gave Ohio State a
2 point lead (66-64) with 1:14 left, and the Boliermakers were deflated, losing 70-66.

Turner’s proficiency creating off the dribble is his greatest asset, but
he shows the versatility to excel in many facets of the game. He’s got
excellent body strength allowing him to overpower opponents and finish
around the rim.

With such a great performance against a quality team, it’s becoming clear that Turner will have an excellent shot of landing in the top 3-5 picks, barring another injury.

Turner’s statistics on the year are extremely impressive: 18.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and 5.6 apg.

He still needs to shore up his outside shooting (31% from 3). But as one scout recently pointed out, shooting is the easiest skill to improve upon entering the league.

Wesley Johnson 6-7 205 SG/SF Syracuse Jr.

Syracuse junior Wesley Johnson has taken over the #2 position on the
mock draft with his all around play leading the Orangemen to a top 5 ranking
with just one loss on the season.

Johnson is putting up a team leading 17.4 ppg and 8.9 rpg, and also
showing tremendous versatility with 1.8 steals and 2.0 blocks per game.

His 20 point, 19 rebound, 5 block game against Seton Hall on December
29th showed the type of talent he possesses. Johnson has also been very
consistent, scoring in double figures in all but one game this year.

Johnson has made the transition to the Big East and playing with a new
team seamless, after sitting out last year following his transfer from
Iowa State.

While Johnson lacks optimum strength and needs to develop his ball handling
skills better, his ability to shoot combined with his length and
athleticism make him a potential #2 pick in this year’s draft.

Alec Burks 6-6 185 SG Colorado Fr.

A virtual unknown coming out of high school, Colorado’s Alec Burks did not appear in anyone’s top 100 recruiting rankings (Rivals, Scout, etc.).

Burks grew 2 inches between his senior year of high school and now, and is quickly emerging as one of the top freshmen prospects in the nation. He’s averaging 16.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 1.9 apg.

He made scouts take note of him early in the year at the Maui Invitational. Since then he has continued to improve to the point where scouts feel he can be a lottery pick in next year’s draft.

Maybe most impressive for a freshman is his mental preparation and approach to the game. He’s been a model of consistency scoring in double figures in every game he has played.

He shows proficiency in every aspect of the game with tremendous ball handling ability and a smooth shooting stroke.

He’s still got work to do on his game and in particular, his body, but his frame shows a lot of potential for improvement. Also in need of work is his range and outside shooting (27% from 3). But shooting is the easiest area to improve on and he shows the touch to ultimately be an excellent shooter.

For a player considered to be the 33rd best shooting guard in the country (by Scout) coming into college, Burks has come a long way in a short time. A hidden gem in Boulder, Colorado.

Howard Thompkins 6-9 245 PF Georgia So.

One of the most offensively polished bigmen in any class is sophomore
Howard Thompkins.

The smooth Georgia bigman shows an excellent
feel for the game with the ability to knock down outside shots and
create shots around the basket with nifty post moves.

Trey is averaging 16.6 ppg and 8.3 rpg, impressing scouts
with 17 and 13 against Kentucky recently, helping the Bulldogs make a
game of it despite ultimately losing by 8.

Thompkins also impressed over the summer for the U-19 team in Aukland, New Zealand.
Despite lacking great explosiveness, Thompkins combines length with a
high skill level making him a potential first round pick in the future.

Elias Harris 6-8 220 SF Gonzaga Fr.

Europe’s top NCAA import this year has been Gonzaga’s Elias Harris. Harris has been posterizing opponents on a weekly basis, banging impressive dunks on unsuspecting players with his explosiveness and long arms.

The German pogo stick has also shown a developing offensive game as he has averaged 21 points over his past 5 games dropping a career high 31 on St. Mary’s on Thursday night.

Over his last 5 games, his outside shot has also shown improvement as he has hit 7-11 from 3 bringing his average on the year up to (10-22) 45%.

He’s been one of the most productive freshmen in the country averaging 14.1 and 7.5 on the year.

Detractors point to the fact that he is closer in age to a junior than a freshman and that having international experience has prepared him for NCAA basketball.

While his upside is up for debate, his athleticism is not, as he is one of the most explosive 6-8 forwards in the country.

The question marks scouts still have about him are his perimeter skills (he’s too small to play the 4). Aside from his athleticism, can he pass, handle and shoot the ball well enough to play on the perimeter?

He lacks a fluid jumpshot displaying a bit of a slingshot release. 

With such an impressive freshman campaign and the fact that he’s already 20 years of age, scouts feel Harris may declare for the 2010 draft and should find a spot somewhere in the 20-40 range.

If he can finish the year out strong, it might be in his best interest to leave for the NBA before scouts get a chance to pick his game apart in the future.

Dwyane Collins 6-9 241 PF Miami Sr.

Though extremely unrefined, the Miami bigman shows a lot of raw talent with his combination of length (7-4.5 wingspan), explosiveness and strength.

While his .9 blocks per game on the year is disappointing, he has really been picking things up of late, averaging 2.3 over his last 6 with 3 straight having 3. Collins recently exploded for 23 and 11 with 3 blocks in the Canes win over Wake Forest.

Ben Wallace went undrafted coming out of college, and while it’s optimistic to think Collins will turn out as good as Big Ben, there are some similarities to their games. Collins possesses some of the same freakish length and nastiness that made Wallace such an intimidating force in the league for so many years.

Collins has moved into the late first round in the most recent mock draft update and is one of a handful of seniors that figure to get looks in that range.

Eric Bledsoe 6-1 180 PG Kentucky Fr.

The Kentucky Wildcats might have the top TWO point guard prospects in
the country, since after teammate John Wall there is a huge dropoff in
talent at the point guard position.

Bledsoe showed that he possesses a unique set of attributes with the
ability to take over games as he did against Florida scoring a game
high 25 points on 3-4, 3 point shooting and 10-13 overall from the
floor.

Bledsoe has a tremendous wingspan and blinding speed making him
extremely intriguing to scouts. He still has a ways to go in becoming a
floor general, illustrated by his negative assist to turnover ratio 3.1
– 3.5.

Obviously he will need to learn to cut down on his turnovers.

Scouts would like to see him return for his sophomore year
and feel he’ll have a good chance to play himself into a lottery pick
as the floor general of the team next year with John Wall in the NBA.

If Bledsoe stays for his sophomore year, he could make it 4 straight years that John Calipari has produced the first point guard selected on draft night.

DeMarcus Cousins 6-11 255 PF Kentucky Fr.

Cousins remains a bit of an enigma to scouts as he has shown the ability to play at a high level, but doesn’t always play with a great amount of intensity.

His productivity, averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.3 rpg in just 19.8 mpg is extremely impressive.

He has shown a mean streak, throwing an elbow at Louisville’s Jared Swopshire during a scrum that should have gotten him ejected. His willingness to get nasty and play aggressively is a positive, but his maturity and motor remain as major question marks.

He’s a below the rim type of post player who does a good job of creating space for himself with his body, however his inability to get much lift will be a greater issue at the next level than it is at the college level playing against predominantly players 2-3 inches shorter than himself.

Granted, his enormous wingspan (7-4) makes it so that he doesn’t need to get far off the ground to convert dunks.

Regardless, scouts look at his size, strength and skill level and in such a weak draft have him pegged in the late lottery. How he finishes out the year will obviously impact whether he moves up or down.

Dominique Jones 6-4 205 SG South Florida Jr.

Jones has long impressed scouts with his skills and physical attributes, but for whatever reason he has struggled to put it all together and play to his abilities on a consistent basis.

Things are beginning to click for the talented junior out of South Florida. He has raised his shooting numbers across the board (19.5 ppg, 48% fg, 72% ft, and 39% 3p).

He also has been on a tear lately, averaging 28 points over his last 3 while getting to the line a total of 33 times during those games.

Jones is seen as a combo guard who will have a chance to crack the first round in either of the next two drafts.

Eniel Polynice 6-5 220 SG Mississippi Jr.

While teammates Terrico White and Chris Warren receive most of the ink, it’s Polynice who is quickly drawing admiration from scouts.

Polynice’s stats don’t jump out at you, and neither does he at first glance. But he’s a player who grows on you the more you watch him. He’s got a terrific feel for the game and seems to do everything well.

He can play point guard when needed. He’s been playing lead guard in key moments of games recently. He’s strong at driving the ball, showing a good first step and the strength to finish around the rim. He can also knock down open jump shots.

Look for the understated Polynice to find a spot in the 2011 draft, probably in the mid-second round, despite being overshadowed by Terrico White and Chris Warren.

Falling:

Derrick Favors 6-9 245 PF Georgia Tech Fr.

Favors possesses as much potential as any player in the country not named John Wall, and although he’ll still have a chance to go 2nd overall, his play has fallen off of late.

His stats on the year are solid with 11.7 ppg and 8.7 rpg plus 2.1 blocks per game. However he has hit a wall offensively scoring in double figures in just 3 of his last 7 games and averaging just 9.2 ppg over that span. He also has averaged 2.7 turnovers per.

In his defense, he’s not getting many opportunities to score with Gani Lawal as the first option for Georgia Tech in the post and a young inexperienced backcourt that score better than they assist. He’s still playing efficiently hitting 57% of his field goals and providing a defensive presence in the paint.

But Favors’ weaknesses are beginning to become more apparent. He lacks any real go to moves and usually scores based on outclassing opponents with his athleticism. Something that will not work for him at the next level.

Against Duke, he appeared sluggish at times and also turned the ball over on a number of traveling violations.

We mentioned early in the season that Favors had the talent to be the 2nd overall pick, but could also slip out of the top 5 and that still remains the case.

Cole Aldrich 6-11 245 C Kansas Jr.

Aldrich has really had a tough season so far. For a player considered a preseason All American, his scoring numbers have been a big disappointment. He has put up 7 or less points in 6 of the team’s 16 games and is averaging just 10.9 ppg on the year (down 4 points from last season).

On a team loaded with scorers and talent, he hasn’t really needed to score much, but his lack of offensive output is glaring nonetheless.

His shooting efficiency is also down from last season both from the floor and the line.

The one area he has shown improvement is his shot blocking where he has a 3.7 bpg average while amazingly averaging just 2.1 fouls per game.

Willie Warren 6-4 195 PG/SG Oklahoma So.

Warren’s disappointing season continues.

A player considered by some as preseason player of the year, Warren has failed to live up to expectations. He’s turning the ball over at a surprisingly high rate 4.1 per game, with one stretch recently in which he had 5 turnovers in 4 straight games.

An area of strength coming into the year, outside shooting, has abandoned him (21-75, 28% from 3) and there are grumblings among scouts about his shot selection and even his overall shooting form.

There’s no question he has a lot of talent with both explosiveness and scoring ability. However, he’s not playing with any consistency, disappearing for long stretches and forcing shots instead of looking for teammates at key moments. When he does play well, it tends to be very streaky and Oklahoma’s struggles as a whole (losing 3 of their past 5) are at least partially attributable to him.

Warren did make a good decision deferring to Tommy Mason-Griffin for a key shot down the stretch against Oklahoma State in a game they were able to pull out.

But due to his inconsistent play, scouts feel that he has fallen from a lottery pick to a mid to late (18-25) first rounder.

Tyler Smith 6-6 225 SF Tennessee Sr.

Getting kicked off the Vol’s team after the marijuana and gun possession charge will make it difficult for Smith to get drafted. For a player considered a potential first rounder in 2009, this has been a disastrous season.

Smith was already having a disappointing year on the court, but getting kicked off the team and then seeing them beat the #1 ranked Jayhawks is a tough pill to swallow. Smith’s inability to play after the charge is extremely damaging as there is no way for him to redeem himself.

He’ll look to impress teams in the draft camps and in team workouts but the image conscious league will likely advise teams to stay away.