“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Stephon Castle is a 19-year-old combo guard from Covington, Georgia, who averaged 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists for the national champion Connecticut Huskies. He is expected to be selected in the lottery in this year’s draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 4.
NBA-Specific Skills
Winning basketball teams at any level require a delicate balance of top-end scoring talent and role players who provide the connective tissue – fill gaps, take charges, make extra passes, dive for loose balls, tip in offensive rebounds, and all the other non-box-score plays that lead to victories.
As far as this year’s potential “glue guys” go, Stephon Castle’s game is a top-tier bottle of Elmer’s.
Castle is a heady playmaker with a nervy, jittery change-of-pace game and above-average vision to find open shooters on his spinning forays into the lane. A loaded UConn squad did not lean on Castle’s lead playmaking skills quite as often as another team would have, but Castle adjusted by finding ways to keep the ball moving and the Huskies’ offense flowing. He posted a 2/1 assist/turnover ratio as a freshman, leading many to believe he can assume a heavier on-ball workload, much like he did in high school.
Castle is a terrific finisher in traffic and has the ability to slither his way into the teeth of defenses, while maintaining somewhat clear lines of sight. There’s a spontaneity and improvisatory element to Castle’s game that keeps defenses wrong-footed.
Castle projects as a plus defender on the next level, as well, given his exceptional height/length/size (6-6, 215) from the guard position. He can credibly guard point guards through small forwards and can possibly add power forwards to the mix as he continues to physically mature. He already does a tremendous job getting into a defensive stance and digging into opposing ball handlers, while navigating through/around screens like a seasoned veteran.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Castle doesn’t eventually become a solid contributor to a playoff team.
On a scale from 1-10, Castle’s versatility rates at an 8.5.
Fatal Flaws
Castle might be able to shoot one day, but that day is not today.
Castle converted on only 26.7% of his 3-point attempts last season – that’s 20 makes in 34 games. A guard needs to either be a playmaking wizard, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, or a Russell Westbrook-in-2016-level athlete to survive these kinds of shooting percentages. After a rough first month, Castle’s foul shooting numbers improved to 75.5%, so there is hope that he can extend his shot beyond the NBA 3-point line, but this development is firmly in wait-and-see mode.
Castle’s ability to create driving lanes will hinge entirely on whether he can become a credible shooting threat. It wasn’t until teams started to respect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s perimeter shot that he became an All-NBA First Team candidate.
Castle’s offensive game comes attached with several “ifs.” If he can handle added playmaking/ball-handling duties … if he can start knocking down 3s … if his man-to-man defense translates to NBA athletes …
In the NBA, there are “good tweeners” and “bad tweeners.” Good tweeners are versatile. They’re Swiss Army Knives. Bad tweeners – particularly the “big combo guard” variety – are some of the most disappointing lottery picks in recent years. Castle needs to convert those “ifs” into “for sures” if he hopes to find himself in the former category.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Castle’s lack of a reliable jumper rates at a 9.
Pre-NBA Setting
Castle arrived at UConn with a sterling high school pedigree – stat-stuffing seasons for Newton High School in Georgia, McDonald’s All-American status, 5-star recruit, FIBA U-18 gold medalist.
A knee injury slowed him down for a few weeks to start the season, but Castle closed strong, unanimously earning Big East Freshman of the Year status and developing into a key contributor in UConn’s national title defense.
On a scale from 1-10, Castle’s pre-NBA career rates at a 9. Winning a national title will do that for you.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Comparisons for Castle range from Andre Iguodala on the extremely optimistic side, and Jarrett Culver on the more pessimistic side. But given this draft’s lack of franchise-altering talent, Castle will likely hear his name called in the top half of the lottery.
Could the Atlanta Hawks roll the dice on him at No. 1 overall? If Atlanta’s braintrust isn’t in love with the more upside-oriented prospects, Castle makes a ton of sense on a defensively challenged roster in need of high-IQ ball movers – particularly if either Tre Young and/or Dejounte Murray are shipped elsewhere. It might seem crazy to spend the No. 1 overall pick on a glue-guy guard with sub-30% 3-point shooting stats, but Castle would join the Hawks with a defined role and several positive NBA attributes on Day 1.
In fact, each team drafting in the top-five could use Castle, particularly the playmaker-starved San Antonio Spurs – a franchise with an excellent track record of turning so-so shooters into above-average ones. It seems unlikely that Castle would drop below the Hornets at No. 6, as they have needed to bring in additional playmaking help to ease LaMelo Ball’s burden since the day Ball arrived in Charlotte.
On a scale from 1-10, Castle’s situational independence is an 8.5. Castle brings 90% of an ideal NBA role player’s profile to any franchise – but a team that can teach him that last 10% (jumper) could turn him into a borderline All-Star.
