“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
LeBron Raymone “Bronny” James Jr. is a 19-year-old guard from Akron, Ohio, who averaged 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for the USC Trojans. He is expected to be selected anywhere between, well, who knows? NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 56.
NBA-Specific Skills
Let’s ignore everything else for just a minute. I promise we’ll get to it, but it’s completely unfair to judge Bronny James based on external noise alone. Plenty of folks are doing that on millions of other platforms. If that is the conversation you wish to have, there are plenty of opportunities for you to have it. For the next few hundred words, at least, we are evaluating a basketball prospect – nothing more.
As such, James brings a diverse set of skills and a terrific basketball IQ to the table.
His calling card will come primarily on the defensive end at this stage of his development. Despite standing just under 6-2, James is a hard-nosed, physical defender, often setting the tone for his matchup before the ball handler can get into his move. He has a low center of gravity and more than enough physical strength to hold his own on bigger players on switches.
James has quick feet and terrific hands, with strong anticipation skills and a sense of where to be and what to do in any defensive scheme. He can play alongside any kind of backcourt partner – particularly a ball-dominant, score-first guard with defensive limitations.
Offensively, James has shown promise as a spot-up 3-point shooter and as an off-ball cutter. He handles the ball well and is a willing/able passer, but he is not yet anyone’s idea of a traditional point guard. He comes into the league as more of a connector/glue guy, but with an encouraging foundation of all-around skills to think that there could one day be more to his game.
On a scale from 1-10, James’ defensive versatility rates at an 8.
Fatal Flaws
Let’s just state the obvious – he’s not ready yet.
Under normal circumstances, a player with James’ physical measurables and statistical profile would have stayed in college for another season – perhaps two. James struggled mightily for a mediocre USC team, posting shooting splits of 37/27/67 – numbers that simply do not get the job done, particularly for a guard. He scored 121 points on 112 shots. He posted double-digit scoring games only three times. He made 16 3-pointers.
Any hope one would have for James’ NBA future lies entirely in his output as a high school player in Los Angeles, where he enjoyed much more success. But if we are judging him based solely on his one season as a Trojan, he does not currently project as an NBA player. That is not an insult, either. There are only 450 of these jobs, and the absolute best players from around the world apply for them. How many of these jobs are reserved for undersized guards who can’t shoot or run an offense?
Obviously, there were extenuating circumstances in James’ case. A terrifying cardiac episode derailed much of his momentum heading into his freshman season. For a few weeks, it was unclear whether James would be medically cleared to resume his basketball career. But basketball is a brutal business. You are not graded on a curve, and there is no column in the box score for extenuating circumstances. There are no maybes, possiblys, or should’ves. It’s performance – plain and simple. On a team level, the Trojans didn’t win. Individually, James did not perform up to an NBA standard.
It’s not impossible, but James has a long road ahead of him before he can claim an NBA roster spot and one day crack a rotation.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), James’ offensive struggles rate at a 9.
Pre-NBA Setting
OK, that’s long enough. Perhaps you have heard that James’ father is a notable NBA player in his own right?
None of us can fathom the scrutiny Bronny has had to endure playing this game. He has had scouts in his ear since elementary school. He has walked into every gym as the center of attention. Opposing fans – many of them adults in age only – feel weirdly empowered to say anything/everything to him.
Through it all, Bronny has maintained a level head and a maturity that is frankly astonishing and quite admirable. He worked his butt off to maximize his potential on a successful Sierra Canyon squad in Los Angeles, earning 4-star recruiting status and a spot on the McDonald’s All-American team.
He is a good player who can never live up to expectations. He is the only role player who serves as A-block content for the sports-yelling television ecosystem. He is 19 and he has already seen it all.
The hurricane of chatter that will accompany Bronny is just that – chatter. But it would be enough to knock most people off balance.
On a scale from 1-10, James’ pre-NBA career is impossible to rate. It’s the double-edged sword of unlimited opportunity.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Fairly or unfairly – mostly unfairly – Bronny’s draft status has been tied entirely to his father. Will the Los Angeles Lakers draft him for the Ken Griffey Sr./Jr. moments? Will another team burn a draft pick on Bronny in hopes of getting in his dad’s good graces? In a draft with such limited upside, is Bronny worth taking 20 or 30 spots too high with the slim chance of that team now having an angle to convince his dad to leave the Lakers? Does a rival team draft Bronny just to annoy the Lakers? Does Bronny have inflated trade value?
Do the James’ even want to play together?
If Bronny was just another draft prospect, he likely would have returned to college for another season – even in such a down draft. But he is not just another draft prospect. He is Bronny James.
Would the Lakers take him at 17? It’s not likely, but it is possible. I can’t say for sure whether any player available at 17 brings more to the table than “maximizing LeBron’s happiness,” but drafting based on LeBron’s whims has burned more than one team in the past.
Some reports have claimed that the Phoenix Suns might be interested at No. 22. Sure. Whatever.
I think Bronny Watch begins in round two, where truly anything could happen. While you can find a future MVP in the 40s, odds are most of these players will never play in an NBA game. Look back on the last 10 drafts and tell me how many of those draft-and-stash players qualify for a roster. Bronny is a worthwhile gamble in this draft, even without the familial attachments.
If he is to carve out an NBA niche, it will be along the lines of Davion Mitchell or Lindsey Hunter – a defensive wrecking ball who can shoot it just well enough to keep defenses honest.
On a scale from 1-10, James’ situational dependence is at a 9. He needs a place where he can develop at his own pace in his own way.
