Why Purdue Advances:

Well, for starters, Purdue only lost five games all year. Also they have the presumptive National Player of the Year on their roster in Zach Edey and one of the best coaches in the nation in Matt Painter. Purdue, for long stretches of the season, was seen as the top team in the nation. They fell off a bit down the stretch and have fallen a little under the radar as some people projected them to possibly fall to the 2 seed line. However, when you have a 7’4” giant down on the block, you’re going to pose matchup problems for virtually every team in the tournament. Even though they are not the sexy pick to win the tournament, it’s difficult to discredit a team with the advantages they will have in a night-in, night-out basis. Plus, outside of Duke, there aren’t a ton of great big men to go up against Edey between here and the Final Four in Houston.

Why Purdue Goes Down:

Purdue has an advantage in the paint, but what really wins games in the tournament is guard play. Purdue’s top guards are freshmen Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. There have to be very real questions about how they will react to their first NCAA tournament. Even if they do okay, what happens if Edey gets in foul trouble. In the tournament, one loss ends your season, and Purdue has a habit of allowing inferior teams to stick close. In the tournament, that gets you beat. Matt Painter is a great coach, but he’s also only 17-14 in the tournament all-time, so he will need to get the monkey off of his back about failing to consistently have success in the tourney. Last season Purdue’s season ended at the hands of 15 seed Saint Peter’s, so a loss to a worse seeded team is within the realm of possibility for this team.

Sweet 16 Sleeper

Oral Roberts.

Do I think they are going to win their first round game? No. But Max Abmas has massive CJ McCollum vibes and unless you’re a Duke fan, that Lehigh/Duke game was one of the most fun tourney games in recent history. Abmas is an absolute bucket-getter who can light defenses up in a hurry. He averaged 22/4/4 this season, scoring 25 or more in 14 games this season. In addition, they also have a giant of their own in 7’3” Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover. While not as dominant as a guy like Edey, he can rebound (7.2 per game) as well as stretch the floor with his three point shooting (33.1% shooting on 4 attempts per game). With an electrifying scorer and a giant possessing a versatile game, Oral Roberts presents one of the most unique matchups of anybody in the entire tournament. And quite frankly, if the 30-4 Golden Eagles can defeat Duke in round one, I’m extremely comfortable picking them in their second game, and could see them making a very deep run.

Final 4 Sleeper

Marquette.

As a general rule of thumb, I refuse to refer to a two seed as a sleeper, especially when they are the two seed in the same region as the weakest #1 seed. However, regardless of what unfolds over the next few weeks, there’s no reason to feel overly great about any of the other options here. Plus, Marquette was picked to finish ninth in the Big East, so they’ve been a bit of a sleeper all season. They’ve only lost twice since Christmas and Shaka Smart has them playing well, particularly on offense where they average nearly 80 points per contest and have three guards leading their attack, two of which are juniors. Tyler Kolek, Kameron Jones, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are going to be a tough guard for any team in this region.They move the ball, don’t turn it over, and score efficiently while not relying on three point shots, making them less susceptible to a bad shooting night. And looking at their half of the East bracket, who is going to beat them? They look like a team that would be favored by 6.5 against either Michigan State or USC, Kansas State has had the bottom fall out from beneath them (7 of their 9 losses have come in their last 13 games), and Kentucky has been very inconsistent, so Marquette has a road that gives them an excellent chance (and excellent matchups along the way) to find themselves in Houston at the end of the month.

Top 1st Round Matchup

Kentucky/Providence.

If Oral Roberts and Duke ends up a close game, it’s that game and it’s probably not even close. However, it could also be a blow out. So the best first round matchup belongs to Kentucky and Providence. Both teams have pretty good (albeit not great offenses) as Kentucky is 35th in offensive rating while Providence is 26th and both teams struggle on defense where Kentucky is 159th and Providence is 191st. So even if the two teams don’t typically play fast, this could be a high-scoring affair in which the first team to 85 wins. Plus, it comes with the built in storyline of Providence’s best player, Bryce Hopkins, playing against his former team who left him on the bench during their tournament game last season. He could look to light them up to send a message. There’s also the chance that Providence coach Ed Cooley could be coaching his last tournament run at Providence as rumors swirl about him leaving for Georgetown. Between the possibility of a shootout and the storylines, this first round 6-11 matchup should be appointment television.

Top Potential Player Matchup

Zach Edey vs Kyle Filipowski (And Derek Lively II).

While Max Abmas vs anybody is fun, and a possible Connor Vanover/Edey matchup would be interesting, the obvious answer is seeing the National Player of the Year vs two outstanding young bigs. Filipowski has been Duke’s top player all season long and Lively, despite vastly underachieving relative to preseason expectations, has been a great shot blocker. How about seeing a battle of bigs deciding a trip to the elite 8? It could give NBA scouts an opportunity to see how these bigs stack up relative to one another and would be an absolute war inside. Two of Purdue’s losses came against Trayce Jackson Davis, so Duke could use its bigs in a similar way in hopes of upending the East’s #1 seed.

Top Under the Radar Matchup

Memphis vs FAU

When the last two NPOYs, Duke, Kentucky, and Tom Izzo are in the same bracket as you, it’s easy to find your game not getting the attention is deserves. The winner of Memphis FAU will be expected to lose to Purdue in round two, but that doesn’t mean their game won’t be a fun one to watch. FAU only lost three games all season long and the computers love the Owls and their balanced attack. Meanwhile, Memphis was overshadowed by Houston all season long, but they beat the number one seed Cougars to win the conference tournament, showing they can beat anybody in the field. Their star is Kendric Davis, who despite his diminutive size, averaged 21.8 points and 5.7 assists this season. FAU isn’t a well known team amongst casual fans, and Kendric Davis and Deandre Williams flew under the radar a little bit this season. On Friday night, they will get their chance to change that fact.

Top 5 NBA Prospects

1. Cason Wallace, Kentucky

Kentucky’s lead guard is not a traditional John Calipari point guard. He’s not less John Wall, Brandon Knight, Tyler Ulis and more Marcus Smart. He can handle the ball and get a team into its offense, but what makes him stand out is his ruthless commitment to the defensive end. He creates turnover by getting steals and deflections, and he makes his opponent work way harder to get to their spots than what they are generally accustomed to. He’s a solidly built 6’4” guard that may be more of a combo guard at the next level, but he is the engine that makes the Wildcats go on both ends of the court. He shoots 34.7 percent from deep and is a solid catch and shoot guard who can also get into the paint for his floater.

2. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Coming into this season, Filipowski was a bit of an afterthought in Duke’s highly-touted recruiting class. However, he has led the Blue Devils in points (15.4), rebounds (6.4), and steals (1.2) this season. He’s worked to extend his range, and it’s a work in progress as he shoots under 30% on 3.5 attempts for game. But as we get to the tournament, the seven-footer will need to take smart shots and play to his strengths. He’s got the tools to be a major difference maker in Duke’s frontcourt, and they will need him to be a stabilizing force during their tournament run.

3. Dariq Whitehead, Duke

Whitehead started the season injured and was essentially playing catch-up for much of the year. He wasn’t very efficient this season, but provides them with some outside shooting (41.1% from three). He’s fourth on the team in shot attempts, but at 6’7”, 220 pounds he has prototypical NBA wing size. On any given night he could have 15 points or 2 points, and this tournament will go a long way in proving to NBA teams that he is ready to make the jump. He has a lot of potential and raw skill, but still needs to find his role in the Blue Devil offense. He will need to develop more of a game beyond his outside shot, but he makes this list based more on his potential than his current production.

4. Keyontae Johnson, Kansas State

Johnson was forgotten about and assumed to be done with the game by many after collapsing on the court while playing for Florida. However, after a season away, he came back to college basketball, this time with the Kansas State Wildcats. He’s shooting 41.9% from three and leads the team with 17.7 points per contest and 7 rebounds. While he can be a little turnover prone, his ability to create offense and help his team in multiple ways makes him an indispensible part of this program. He projects as a three-and-D wing with a high floor at the next level. His veteran presence will be an important part of KSU’s run this March.

5. Zach Edey, Purdue

What more do you say about the NPOY? He’s massive and has developed a great deal over the last three seasons. He averaged 22.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, on 60% shooting and under two fouls per game. He’s been incredible this year and while he may not be a first round pick, he’s shown that he deserves a look at the next level. Purdue as a one seed will go as far as Edey can take them. A long tourney run could be the difference between him having the opportunity to bump his draft stock up to allow him to be drafted in the late first round this year or potentially going back to school for a senior campaign in West Lafayette.

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