Why Drafting in the Late 1st Matters

This topic contains 32 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by Hitster 11 years, 10 months ago.

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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 6:25am #57628

JoeWolf1
On draft night 2013, the Indiana Pacers selected Arizona forward, Solomon Hill, with the 23rd pick of the 1st round. Thought as a reach, by myself and others, the pick was shrugged off because most likely anyone selected at that slot would not gain much playing time for the Pacers’ strong well rounded roster.
Swingmen Tim Hardaway Jr, Glen Rice Jr, and Reggie Bullock were all on the board.
Fast forward to today, the scene in Indiana is much different. Lance Stephenson has bolted to Charlotte, and Paul George is now out for the entire season after suffering a broken leg at a time where most caliber free agents have found a contract.
The Pacers are more or less stuck with their current roster, give or take a few small moves before the season starts. Had the Pacers taken Tim Hardaway Jr, who was also in Vegas with Team USA Select, or Glen Rice Jr, who had a fantastic summer league and has shown signs of a solid rotation player, would their prognosis be quite so bleak? Well, yes, Paul George is a top 10 player in the league, but I don’t think the freak out factor would be quite as high with Tim Hardaway Jr in a Pacer uniform.
Solomon Hill hasn’t had a chance to shine yet, and I’m not going to count him out before he’s gotten a chance. Miles Plumlee was a gem that Bird and co were hammered for chosing in the 1st round the prior year. Hill may very well be waiting to break out, but as a long time supporter of Tim Hardaway Jr, and Glen Rice Jr, this could very well be a woulda coulda shoulda moment for the Pacers.
Only time will tell, and hindsight is 20/20, but a smarter pick for Indiana could be the difference between a 7 or 8 seed and missing out on the post season. Again, this is a minimal development, but the little things in the draft often are the difference when a team gets in a pinch.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 6:32am #941948

FearTheStache
Participant
I don’t think any of those three players would really transform them into a playoff team now.If anything, this injury is a blessing in disguise. As a break, it should not have the long term effects of a tear or other long-term injuries. Besides the length of recovery, George should have no side effects. This gives an already very good Indiana team to dip in success this year, and potentially pick up a high lottery talent that they would not have been able to get otherwise. In current form, excluding the George injury, they weren’t good enough to win a championship. This puts them in better position for the future.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 6:32am #941815

FearTheStache
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I don’t think any of those three players would really transform them into a playoff team now.If anything, this injury is a blessing in disguise. As a break, it should not have the long term effects of a tear or other long-term injuries. Besides the length of recovery, George should have no side effects. This gives an already very good Indiana team to dip in success this year, and potentially pick up a high lottery talent that they would not have been able to get otherwise. In current form, excluding the George injury, they weren’t good enough to win a championship. This puts them in better position for the future.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 7:04am #941954

Bmore_DC
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Tell me about it…As a Wizards fan, weve constantly blown picks late in the first (Chris Singleton anybody?). Ironically, i am hoping Glen Rice JR gets some PT this year for sure.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 7:04am #941821

Bmore_DC
Participant
Tell me about it…As a Wizards fan, weve constantly blown picks late in the first (Chris Singleton anybody?). Ironically, i am hoping Glen Rice JR gets some PT this year for sure.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 8:45am #941837

TheArtistPaysthePrice
Participant
They have learned how to win and this makes not exceeding the cap for Lance at whatever number (3 years 36) way worse. Tim Hardaway Jr would help greatly and I think Glen Rice Jr, Reggie Bullock and Solomon Hill would have had more chances to grow like TH Jr if they played for the Knicks.
With Hardaway Jr they would have a better playoff shot but with Lance they would be in no doubt.
The trading deadline will be crazy this year, somebody unexpected will fall on their face and hopefully we see a lot of action.
Your right about late first round picks, I thought Kyle Anderson was a great pick this year for the Spurs.
When the Cavs picked Carrick Felix last year in the early second and the Blazers picked Allen Crabbe I remember writing that there is no way that the Cavs and Blazers think that Felix and Crabbe are better at basketball than Glen Rice Jr. Its just no way, maybe they thought they were better people, especially Felix but never could they have been better prospects at playing the game of basketball.

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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 8:45am #941970

TheArtistPaysthePrice
Participant
They have learned how to win and this makes not exceeding the cap for Lance at whatever number (3 years 36) way worse. Tim Hardaway Jr would help greatly and I think Glen Rice Jr, Reggie Bullock and Solomon Hill would have had more chances to grow like TH Jr if they played for the Knicks.
With Hardaway Jr they would have a better playoff shot but with Lance they would be in no doubt.
The trading deadline will be crazy this year, somebody unexpected will fall on their face and hopefully we see a lot of action.
Your right about late first round picks, I thought Kyle Anderson was a great pick this year for the Spurs.
When the Cavs picked Carrick Felix last year in the early second and the Blazers picked Allen Crabbe I remember writing that there is no way that the Cavs and Blazers think that Felix and Crabbe are better at basketball than Glen Rice Jr. Its just no way, maybe they thought they were better people, especially Felix but never could they have been better prospects at playing the game of basketball.

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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:08am #941843

Ihateusernames
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Maybe they tank their way into Muduay, Okafor or Cliff Alexander and pair him w Paul George upon his return.
Indy wasnt gonna pull in a high ceiling talent any other way.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:08am #941976

Ihateusernames
Participant
Maybe they tank their way into Muduay, Okafor or Cliff Alexander and pair him w Paul George upon his return.
Indy wasnt gonna pull in a high ceiling talent any other way.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:19am #941847

TenSecondTom
Participant
No… You’re talking about Tim Hardaway Jr. the guy who got consistent minutes for a non playoff team in the Eastern Conference as a rookie, not Tim Hardaway Jr. the Bench Warmer for the contending Indiana Pacers; His career path would’ve been completely different as a player if he would’ve been drafted by the Pacers and he’d be in the same situation Solomon Hill is in right now relatively speaking.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:56am #941857
  
  JoeWolf1
  No, I’m talking about the Tim Hardaway Jr I had ranked about 20 spots higher than Solomon Hill. I thought Tim was top 15 talent last year. Whether he played 9 mpg for Indiana last year or 19 for NY, I’d still feel was the VASTLY superior player.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:56am #941990
  
  JoeWolf1
  No, I’m talking about the Tim Hardaway Jr I had ranked about 20 spots higher than Solomon Hill. I thought Tim was top 15 talent last year. Whether he played 9 mpg for Indiana last year or 19 for NY, I’d still feel was the VASTLY superior player.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:19am #941980

TenSecondTom
Participant
No… You’re talking about Tim Hardaway Jr. the guy who got consistent minutes for a non playoff team in the Eastern Conference as a rookie, not Tim Hardaway Jr. the Bench Warmer for the contending Indiana Pacers; His career path would’ve been completely different as a player if he would’ve been drafted by the Pacers and he’d be in the same situation Solomon Hill is in right now relatively speaking.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:54am #941855

llperez
While most would certainly argue tim hardaway jr was a steal and could help lots of teams, i doubt too many teams treat 1st rounders like they dont matter. Pacers probably felt solomon was the best available. A better argument would be do teams selling second rounders make mistakes for not valuing those picks enough. To be honest, im not really sure what you are getting at here wolf.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 10:01am #941861
  
  JoeWolf1
  They have no scorers. While a subtle and not exactly life changing decision, there were other players on the board that would have left them in a better position, post injury.
  Jimmy Butler in Chicago saved them in a lot of ways.
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:19am #941879
    
    TheArtistPaysthePrice
    Participant
    Chicago and Indy do have a track record on developing young players. Indy with PG, Granger, Hibbert and Lance. The Bulls with Butler, Snell and Gibson etc. If Hill struggles then it might be an indictment on Hill. TH Jr developed with playing time and because he has 3 and D potential. I would believe like JoeWolf he would have developed under Indiana. Lance and PG had major jumps in improvement and any of the guys mentioned could have similar archs.
    I think Wolfs point is Hardaway started off as a better prospect and thats why its a bad move to not have drafted him. I think Lance’s presence is what would have made a decision to draft Timmy Jr harder and instead they opted for a solid build defender in Hill who does has offensive promise. Indy thought it was getting a better Chris Singleton in the late first round which is something worth getting.
    
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:19am #942012
    
    TheArtistPaysthePrice
    Participant
    Chicago and Indy do have a track record on developing young players. Indy with PG, Granger, Hibbert and Lance. The Bulls with Butler, Snell and Gibson etc. If Hill struggles then it might be an indictment on Hill. TH Jr developed with playing time and because he has 3 and D potential. I would believe like JoeWolf he would have developed under Indiana. Lance and PG had major jumps in improvement and any of the guys mentioned could have similar archs.
    I think Wolfs point is Hardaway started off as a better prospect and thats why its a bad move to not have drafted him. I think Lance’s presence is what would have made a decision to draft Timmy Jr harder and instead they opted for a solid build defender in Hill who does has offensive promise. Indy thought it was getting a better Chris Singleton in the late first round which is something worth getting.
    
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:25am #941887
    
    llperez
    well yeah, hindsite is 20/20. Every team in the league has countless past decisions they would like back. Your thread is kinda a no duh statement, draft picks matter. Were you trying to get at something else or is this thread just to say the pacers messed up? Im not sure if you are saying the pacers didnt take the pick seriously.
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    - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 12:02pm #941897
      
      JoeWolf1
      If we’re on the nbadraft.net forum aren’t we about analyzing and making the best picks? I though Hill was a poor pick on draft night. It’s not 100% hindsight. The subtleties matter. Maybe Indiana with a 2015 lotto pick is a good thing, but I guarantee you no one on that team wants to go 36-46, a smarter pick could have been the difference between making the post season. Maybe this post is too subtle, but not reaching and making smart picks in the late 1st has done a lot of teams very well.
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      - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 1:31pm #941909
        
        llperez
        Well I do agree with you. I’m not gonna toot my own horn, but I created a thread during that college season that questioned why this site ranked trey Burke and gr3 as better prospects then hardaway. I said back then he was the best prospect of the 3 when they were playing together. And I like you was surprised hill went first round.
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      - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 1:31pm #942041
        
        llperez
        Well I do agree with you. I’m not gonna toot my own horn, but I created a thread during that college season that questioned why this site ranked trey Burke and gr3 as better prospects then hardaway. I said back then he was the best prospect of the 3 when they were playing together. And I like you was surprised hill went first round.
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    - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 12:02pm #942029
      
      JoeWolf1
      If we’re on the nbadraft.net forum aren’t we about analyzing and making the best picks? I though Hill was a poor pick on draft night. It’s not 100% hindsight. The subtleties matter. Maybe Indiana with a 2015 lotto pick is a good thing, but I guarantee you no one on that team wants to go 36-46, a smarter pick could have been the difference between making the post season. Maybe this post is too subtle, but not reaching and making smart picks in the late 1st has done a lot of teams very well.
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:25am #942020
    
    llperez
    well yeah, hindsite is 20/20. Every team in the league has countless past decisions they would like back. Your thread is kinda a no duh statement, draft picks matter. Were you trying to get at something else or is this thread just to say the pacers messed up? Im not sure if you are saying the pacers didnt take the pick seriously.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 10:01am #941994
  
  JoeWolf1
  They have no scorers. While a subtle and not exactly life changing decision, there were other players on the board that would have left them in a better position, post injury.
  Jimmy Butler in Chicago saved them in a lot of ways.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:54am #941988

llperez
While most would certainly argue tim hardaway jr was a steal and could help lots of teams, i doubt too many teams treat 1st rounders like they dont matter. Pacers probably felt solomon was the best available. A better argument would be do teams selling second rounders make mistakes for not valuing those picks enough. To be honest, im not really sure what you are getting at here wolf.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 10:49am #941867

ph90702
This is a thread about the importance of drafting in the first round. The Spurs are only mentioned once. The Spurs have made this a science and won titles because of it.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:09am #941869
  
  TheArtistPaysthePrice
  Participant
  They Spurs wasted a late first round pick in the draft that’s being discussed.
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:59pm #942085
    
    tblazer_NZ
    Participant
    Livio Jean-Charles could well play a role in the spurs future.
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  - Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 9:59pm #941953
    
    tblazer_NZ
    Participant
    Livio Jean-Charles could well play a role in the spurs future.
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- Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:09am #942002
  
  TheArtistPaysthePrice
  Participant
  They Spurs wasted a late first round pick in the draft that’s being discussed.
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Posted on: Sat, 08/02/2014 - 10:49am #942000

ph90702
This is a thread about the importance of drafting in the first round. The Spurs are only mentioned once. The Spurs have made this a science and won titles because of it.
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Posted on: Sun, 08/03/2014 - 6:04am #942109

Hitster
Participant
The Pacers built their current team with no-one drafted higher than 9th so have obviously picked very well in recent years. If we are talking hindsight now – the Leonard – Hill trade in 2011 really comes back to bite them.
The Spurs have certainly been the best drafting late 1st round team often finding hidden gems or stashing guys away to bring over in due course whilst other teams have used these picks as trading currency to aid the win now theory.
The Pacers might sneak a 7th or 8th seeding at best next season. I’d see the play offs as being between the top 10 teams out East last season. Cleveland would see logical favourites, Chicago if D-Rose is sound will likely be top 3 out East, Washington should be stronger too, Miami minus LeBron will still surely be a top 5 team, Toronto look a play off lock and likewise the Hornets I think. If Atlanta get Horford back then they should surely get at least 7th seeding. Brooklyn have lost PP and KG is likely in his last season but Lionel Hollins is a proven coach and again again they should make the play offs. The Knicks are the wild card with a new coach and first year under Phil’s reign, do they look to get a high pick as they moved Chandler or will Melo push them towards the play offs.

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Posted on: Sun, 08/03/2014 - 6:04am #941977

Hitster
Participant
The Pacers built their current team with no-one drafted higher than 9th so have obviously picked very well in recent years. If we are talking hindsight now – the Leonard – Hill trade in 2011 really comes back to bite them.
The Spurs have certainly been the best drafting late 1st round team often finding hidden gems or stashing guys away to bring over in due course whilst other teams have used these picks as trading currency to aid the win now theory.
The Pacers might sneak a 7th or 8th seeding at best next season. I’d see the play offs as being between the top 10 teams out East last season. Cleveland would see logical favourites, Chicago if D-Rose is sound will likely be top 3 out East, Washington should be stronger too, Miami minus LeBron will still surely be a top 5 team, Toronto look a play off lock and likewise the Hornets I think. If Atlanta get Horford back then they should surely get at least 7th seeding. Brooklyn have lost PP and KG is likely in his last season but Lionel Hollins is a proven coach and again again they should make the play offs. The Knicks are the wild card with a new coach and first year under Phil’s reign, do they look to get a high pick as they moved Chandler or will Melo push them towards the play offs.

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