[qDizzle32Participant]

If Giannis Antetokoumpo would have came to the states to play prep school ball last year like how Joel Embiid did, where would have he ranked in the 2013 recruiting class? Keep in mind that high school rankings are based off of how good they are at the time, not based on NBA potential like how Samardo Samuels and Austin Freeman were Top 5 ranked players in high school. He no doubt would have been a McDonalds All-American selection but would he have cracked the Top 5?

Here’s a link to last year’s rankings:

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2013/order/true

[B-ball fanParticipant]

 If Giannis grew up and went to high school in the U.S., but still developed just as well as he did in Greece, I think he would probably be the fourth ranked recruit and possibly even higher.  Counterfactuals are impossible to judge truly objectively, but I think he would be doing great if he were playing college ball right now, although he may struggle more with the lack of spacing in NCAA basketball than some of the other top recruits.  Giannis’s game is better suited for the NBA than the NCAA, in my opinion.

[B-ball fanParticipant]

 If Giannis grew up and went to high school in the U.S., but still developed just as well as he did in Greece, I think he would probably be the fourth ranked recruit and possibly even higher.  Counterfactuals are impossible to judge truly objectively, but I think he would be doing great if he were playing college ball right now, although he may struggle more with the lack of spacing in NCAA basketball than some of the other top recruits.  Giannis’s game is better suited for the NBA than the NCAA, in my opinion.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I mean, he seems to be a bit more fluid than Noah Vonleh, who I was a huge fan of as far as this HS Class was concerned. Would think right now, Giannis might be behind Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle and Joel Embiid in terms of this years draft. It is tough to say with HS Rankings, but I would say everyone has their own variation of how they are done. Think Adam Finkelstein (ESPN/New England Recruiting Report) summed up his views on it pretty well around rankings update time:

New rankings always generate lots of "feedback" – criteria important: pro potential; projected college impact; HS productivity (in order)

Of course, pro potential is the most difficult to project and some of the best prospects usually do post huge HS numbers. With Samardo Samuels, I know he was seen as having some upside, had a college ready body. Greg Monroe was seen as being slightly passive, though physical characterisitics obviously were in his favor. Again, people do their ratings based on different criteria, however I do not think it is done only on how good they are at the moment. Otherwise, Joel Embiid would be nowhere near where he was ranked by ESPN, who had him the highest amongst the pundits in the RCSI.

I saw Samardo (#4 in Final 2008 RCSI) in 2008 at the Hoop Summit and did not really know what the fuss was about. He did have soft hands and was quite strong, guess some touch as well. However, I think he was also projected as a potential one-and-done, plus a decent future PF. Obviously it turned out that Greg Monroe (#6 in Final RCSI) was a major better pro and some of that may have been due to Samuels being a tad more productive at the HS level, just do not believe that people would have ranked Samuels higher if Monroe was clearly the better pro prospect. Turned out to be so, but hindsight is 20/20.

Also, Austin Freeman was #14 in 2007’s Final RCSI. Never remember him being top 5 in that class. I know mine looked something like Derrick Rose (yup, I had D-Rose #1 in HS. One of the few I have gotten semi-against the grain, lol), OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love and Eric Gordon, with Kyle Singler coming in at #6. I wish I could find that old blog where I had my Final Top 10, just know those guys were definitely at the top in 2007. Austin finished rather high, yet again, think people felt he had some NBA upside. Seems cuckoo bananas that he finished ahead of Blake Griffin (#16) and James Harden (#17), just think pro projection at the time at least played a part in him doing so amongst some scouting services.

As Finkelstein points out, HS production tends to be at the bottom of the list of things you look at when ranking these guys. Think that physical characterisitics and upside have to play a part. Sometimes you can be way off, though it is sometimes pretty difficult to know how HS kids are going to adapt to the next level and just how much better a player can become. That is where the mental game really kicks in when separating some of these guys as eventual draft prospects.

So, guess I would have little idea of what Giannis would do at the HS level in the US, guessing he would do quite well. Just, those physical characteristics along with a visible skill set made him an intriguing draft prospect, so I am guessing he would be ranked in the 5-10 range in the HS Class of 2013.

The better question might be where he would have ranked in 2012, seeing that he was drafted with a number of the top ranked freshman from that year. One might think, and again this could be hindsight speaking, but he could have been the #1 player in that class. He was drafted after only Bennett, Noel, Muhammad and Adams as far as HS 2012 is concerned, so it seems like top 5 would seem probable.

I personally believed that Dario Saric would have been a top 5 player in the HS Class of 2012. Think I had him right after Shabazz, Noel, Slo-Mo and Steven Adams. Even liked him better than Bennett at the Hoop Summit in 2012, though I probably still would have taken Bennett ahead of him in the 2013 Draft (just not #1, was never an advocate of that, thought 6-10 range was good for Bennett, with Saric’s range going from 10-13). Enes Kanter finished #7 in the 2010 RCSI, would have had him at 3 or 4 behind Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger and possibly Kyrie Irving. Again, some of the things in this paragraph seem crazy now as far as ranking these guys, just know that it was not necessarily seen as crazy at the time the Final HS Rankings were released.

Would be interesting to see where people would have ranked foreign players amongst HS peers in their age group. Usually the recruiting sites stick to ranking only players playing within the US high school system, which will once in a while leave out a few big time draft prospects or potential recruits. Seems like NBA guys kind of unanimously agreed that Dirk Nowitzki would have been the #1 player in the HS Class of 1998, as he went 16 picks ahead of Al Harrington (who was #1 in the 1998 RCSI Final rankings) in that years draft after torching the US at the Hoop Summit. Andrew Bogut would have likely been a top 5-10 player in the HS Class of 2003 had services ranked him at the time. Dante Exum obviously would be at or near the top of the HS Class of 2014 and probably would have been right after Wiggins, Parker and Randle in 2013. Well, if people wanted to give their real thoughts of where they would have ranked foreign players amongst their respective classes AT THE TIME THEY WERE ACTUALLY IN OR JUST FINISHED PLAYING HS (feel I need to cap it up, as it is really easy to say where you would put a person after years of NBA stardom), that would be interesting.

[qDizzle32Participant]

 Well another reason why high school rankings are never that accurate is because there are so many different levels of competition. Kyle Singler is from Southern Oregon in a league with mostly around 6’3 centers as he was ranked as a Top 7 player in 2007. Then there’s players such as Victor Oladipo (Played at DeMartha) who weren’t even in the Top 100 of their classes because their playing at the highest level of competition possible for the high school level with a more than 5 guys ranked in the Top 100 for their classes. 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Kyle was pretty damn legit, bro. Yes, he played in Southern Oregon, however, his team did win the State Championship when he was a senior. Kyle also led them to the State Finals as a junior as well and they only lost by 2. Both times he was going up against Kevin Love, actually went to both games. Kyle was tall, a solid athlete and he killed it in National camps beyond just rocking Southern Oregon.

Victor got a lot better, man. He was an amazing athlete and in college became a basketball player. Still, not many people knew Victor would get to the point that he did. It almost seems like you see Kyle as a disappointment as well. He definitely was not the 7th best player in that class, it was stacked. Yet, he was a 6-8 kid who could shoot, handle and was good enough to start for Duke right out the gate. Do not think Kyle killing Southern Oregon was the reason he was ranked as highly as he was, kid was and is a baller. If you thought Victor Oladipo was a better NBA prospect than Kyle Singler coming out of HS, you would be among the few. The guy who plays major basketball is not always better than the small town kid, this was a case where it took time for it to happen as well.

If you want to see something interesting about Kyle, check out this series. Not saying he was a lock to be a NBA superstar, I think being a NBA role player is not bad by any standard for Singler. Still, hard to say the kid was not a pretty damn nice player coming out of HS. Plus, while he may not have gone up against 5 guys ranked in the Top 100 for their class, he did have to go up against one of the better HS basketball players in the last decade or so. For real. Kevin Love was an absolute monster coming out of HS. Not the NBA prospect that Julius Randle might be right now, Love exceeded the hell out of my career expectations for him. Still, at the same stage, Love was definitely a better player than Randle in my mind. Kyle did have to guard that and while Kevin put up numbers, he was doing that against everyone. Kyle did not exactly wilt, either and of course was a large reason K-Love lost State his senior year:

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Kyle was pretty damn legit, bro. Yes, he played in Southern Oregon, however, his team did win the State Championship when he was a senior. Kyle also led them to the State Finals as a junior as well and they only lost by 2. Both times he was going up against Kevin Love, actually went to both games. Kyle was tall, a solid athlete and he killed it in National camps beyond just rocking Southern Oregon.

Victor got a lot better, man. He was an amazing athlete and in college became a basketball player. Still, not many people knew Victor would get to the point that he did. It almost seems like you see Kyle as a disappointment as well. He definitely was not the 7th best player in that class, it was stacked. Yet, he was a 6-8 kid who could shoot, handle and was good enough to start for Duke right out the gate. Do not think Kyle killing Southern Oregon was the reason he was ranked as highly as he was, kid was and is a baller. If you thought Victor Oladipo was a better NBA prospect than Kyle Singler coming out of HS, you would be among the few. The guy who plays major basketball is not always better than the small town kid, this was a case where it took time for it to happen as well.

If you want to see something interesting about Kyle, check out this series. Not saying he was a lock to be a NBA superstar, I think being a NBA role player is not bad by any standard for Singler. Still, hard to say the kid was not a pretty damn nice player coming out of HS. Plus, while he may not have gone up against 5 guys ranked in the Top 100 for their class, he did have to go up against one of the better HS basketball players in the last decade or so. For real. Kevin Love was an absolute monster coming out of HS. Not the NBA prospect that Julius Randle might be right now, Love exceeded the hell out of my career expectations for him. Still, at the same stage, Love was definitely a better player than Randle in my mind. Kyle did have to guard that and while Kevin put up numbers, he was doing that against everyone. Kyle did not exactly wilt, either and of course was a large reason K-Love lost State his senior year:

[qDizzle32Participant]

 I wasn’t bashing Singler at all. He’s a great player and even led Duke to win a national title, yes I said led. I was just saying that he ended up being nowhere near the 6th best player in that really great 2007 class. 

[qDizzle32Participant]

 I wasn’t bashing Singler at all. He’s a great player and even led Duke to win a national title, yes I said led. I was just saying that he ended up being nowhere near the 6th best player in that really great 2007 class. 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Just do not buy Kyle "playing against 6’3" centers" as the reason he was ranked so high. I mean if you look at their HS stats, there was not exactly a gigantic difference between these two players:

Kyle Singler: 29.3 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 spg

Blake Griffin: 26.8 ppg, 15.1 rpg, 4.9 apg, 2.9 bpg

Not a major discernible difference. The thing that had Singler ranked ahead of him by most? He was the better player at the time. Blake Griffin was very athletic, but was not Blake Griffin. He needed major work on his body and his skill set was still quite raw. Do you think the people that make these rankings can predict the future? You try to rely on past players you have seen, on characteristics such as size, athleticism and skill set.

Griffin was not seen as a sure thing and while his athleticism and strength were evident, he was not as fast or as good as he is now. Same with Oladipo, who was 146th in the 2010 RCSI (Basketball-Reference has RCSI now! Whoo!). Yes, he played against good competition. Still, did you believe Victor Oladipo was a top 2 pick after his first two seasons? I had as a possible first rounder, maybe around 15 if things went well. It is hard to predict a players mindset or how hard one will work. It is easy to say what happened now, just doubt you would be singing the same tune back than.

In the end, I think most people make high school rankings based on how good this player will be even more so than how good than they are. The problem with that is, it is hard to say a better player at the time will not work hard and be better down the line. James Harden and Blake Griffin obviously had potential to be better than Kyle Singler, however Kyle still had upside back than and had proven to do pretty damn well against his peers.

Out of the 170 players in the 2007 RCSI rankings, 45 have played in the NBA. That is 26.5% and you have a lot of guys from various backgrounds. Kyle is currently 25th in Win Shares and seeing that he is only in his 2nd season in the league, will go higher. There are at least 10 or so players you can say are definitely better than he is, though in the end, do not think he was as far off his ranking as one might think. Definitely were more off on Oladipo’s ranking, though it is hard to say it was as easy to see Victor’s path to the league as it was Kyle’s, regardless of where or whom they played in high school.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Just do not buy Kyle "playing against 6’3" centers" as the reason he was ranked so high. I mean if you look at their HS stats, there was not exactly a gigantic difference between these two players:

Kyle Singler: 29.3 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 spg

Blake Griffin: 26.8 ppg, 15.1 rpg, 4.9 apg, 2.9 bpg

Not a major discernible difference. The thing that had Singler ranked ahead of him by most? He was the better player at the time. Blake Griffin was very athletic, but was not Blake Griffin. He needed major work on his body and his skill set was still quite raw. Do you think the people that make these rankings can predict the future? You try to rely on past players you have seen, on characteristics such as size, athleticism and skill set.

Griffin was not seen as a sure thing and while his athleticism and strength were evident, he was not as fast or as good as he is now. Same with Oladipo, who was 146th in the 2010 RCSI (Basketball-Reference has RCSI now! Whoo!). Yes, he played against good competition. Still, did you believe Victor Oladipo was a top 2 pick after his first two seasons? I had as a possible first rounder, maybe around 15 if things went well. It is hard to predict a players mindset or how hard one will work. It is easy to say what happened now, just doubt you would be singing the same tune back than.

In the end, I think most people make high school rankings based on how good this player will be even more so than how good than they are. The problem with that is, it is hard to say a better player at the time will not work hard and be better down the line. James Harden and Blake Griffin obviously had potential to be better than Kyle Singler, however Kyle still had upside back than and had proven to do pretty damn well against his peers.

Out of the 170 players in the 2007 RCSI rankings, 45 have played in the NBA. That is 26.5% and you have a lot of guys from various backgrounds. Kyle is currently 25th in Win Shares and seeing that he is only in his 2nd season in the league, will go higher. There are at least 10 or so players you can say are definitely better than he is, though in the end, do not think he was as far off his ranking as one might think. Definitely were more off on Oladipo’s ranking, though it is hard to say it was as easy to see Victor’s path to the league as it was Kyle’s, regardless of where or whom they played in high school.

[qDizzle32Participant]

 Well another reason why high school rankings are never that accurate is because there are so many different levels of competition. Kyle Singler is from Southern Oregon in a league with mostly around 6’3 centers as he was ranked as a Top 7 player in 2007. Then there’s players such as Victor Oladipo (Played at DeMartha) who weren’t even in the Top 100 of their classes because their playing at the highest level of competition possible for the high school level with a more than 5 guys ranked in the Top 100 for their classes. 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I mean, he seems to be a bit more fluid than Noah Vonleh, who I was a huge fan of as far as this HS Class was concerned. Would think right now, Giannis might be behind Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle and Joel Embiid in terms of this years draft. It is tough to say with HS Rankings, but I would say everyone has their own variation of how they are done. Think Adam Finkelstein (ESPN/New England Recruiting Report) summed up his views on it pretty well around rankings update time:

New rankings always generate lots of "feedback" – criteria important: pro potential; projected college impact; HS productivity (in order)

Of course, pro potential is the most difficult to project and some of the best prospects usually do post huge HS numbers. With Samardo Samuels, I know he was seen as having some upside, had a college ready body. Greg Monroe was seen as being slightly passive, though physical characterisitics obviously were in his favor. Again, people do their ratings based on different criteria, however I do not think it is done only on how good they are at the moment. Otherwise, Joel Embiid would be nowhere near where he was ranked by ESPN, who had him the highest amongst the pundits in the RCSI.

I saw Samardo (#4 in Final 2008 RCSI) in 2008 at the Hoop Summit and did not really know what the fuss was about. He did have soft hands and was quite strong, guess some touch as well. However, I think he was also projected as a potential one-and-done, plus a decent future PF. Obviously it turned out that Greg Monroe (#6 in Final RCSI) was a major better pro and some of that may have been due to Samuels being a tad more productive at the HS level, just do not believe that people would have ranked Samuels higher if Monroe was clearly the better pro prospect. Turned out to be so, but hindsight is 20/20.

Also, Austin Freeman was #14 in 2007’s Final RCSI. Never remember him being top 5 in that class. I know mine looked something like Derrick Rose (yup, I had D-Rose #1 in HS. One of the few I have gotten semi-against the grain, lol), OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love and Eric Gordon, with Kyle Singler coming in at #6. I wish I could find that old blog where I had my Final Top 10, just know those guys were definitely at the top in 2007. Austin finished rather high, yet again, think people felt he had some NBA upside. Seems cuckoo bananas that he finished ahead of Blake Griffin (#16) and James Harden (#17), just think pro projection at the time at least played a part in him doing so amongst some scouting services.

As Finkelstein points out, HS production tends to be at the bottom of the list of things you look at when ranking these guys. Think that physical characterisitics and upside have to play a part. Sometimes you can be way off, though it is sometimes pretty difficult to know how HS kids are going to adapt to the next level and just how much better a player can become. That is where the mental game really kicks in when separating some of these guys as eventual draft prospects.

So, guess I would have little idea of what Giannis would do at the HS level in the US, guessing he would do quite well. Just, those physical characteristics along with a visible skill set made him an intriguing draft prospect, so I am guessing he would be ranked in the 5-10 range in the HS Class of 2013.

The better question might be where he would have ranked in 2012, seeing that he was drafted with a number of the top ranked freshman from that year. One might think, and again this could be hindsight speaking, but he could have been the #1 player in that class. He was drafted after only Bennett, Noel, Muhammad and Adams as far as HS 2012 is concerned, so it seems like top 5 would seem probable.

I personally believed that Dario Saric would have been a top 5 player in the HS Class of 2012. Think I had him right after Shabazz, Noel, Slo-Mo and Steven Adams. Even liked him better than Bennett at the Hoop Summit in 2012, though I probably still would have taken Bennett ahead of him in the 2013 Draft (just not #1, was never an advocate of that, thought 6-10 range was good for Bennett, with Saric’s range going from 10-13). Enes Kanter finished #7 in the 2010 RCSI, would have had him at 3 or 4 behind Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger and possibly Kyrie Irving. Again, some of the things in this paragraph seem crazy now as far as ranking these guys, just know that it was not necessarily seen as crazy at the time the Final HS Rankings were released.

Would be interesting to see where people would have ranked foreign players amongst HS peers in their age group. Usually the recruiting sites stick to ranking only players playing within the US high school system, which will once in a while leave out a few big time draft prospects or potential recruits. Seems like NBA guys kind of unanimously agreed that Dirk Nowitzki would have been the #1 player in the HS Class of 1998, as he went 16 picks ahead of Al Harrington (who was #1 in the 1998 RCSI Final rankings) in that years draft after torching the US at the Hoop Summit. Andrew Bogut would have likely been a top 5-10 player in the HS Class of 2003 had services ranked him at the time. Dante Exum obviously would be at or near the top of the HS Class of 2014 and probably would have been right after Wiggins, Parker and Randle in 2013. Well, if people wanted to give their real thoughts of where they would have ranked foreign players amongst their respective classes AT THE TIME THEY WERE ACTUALLY IN OR JUST FINISHED PLAYING HS (feel I need to cap it up, as it is really easy to say where you would put a person after years of NBA stardom), that would be interesting.

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