[valentine]

First, I’m welcoming the fact that Tyler Roberson is finally out of the mock draft, this site defended him better as a draft prospect than Johnnie Cochran did it with OJ. I’m not sure Roberson is even in the top 100 college senior prospects, let alone overall. His lack of skills, size and production is obvious.
As for Lydon, in my opinion he’s a bit overrated, I have a second round grade on him. He’s a good athlete and has a nice shooting stroke, but I feel his pro potential is much closer to Jarrod Uthoff than to a mid first rounder in a stocked draft… Especially because his development didn’t went well from FR to SO year. He’s also averaging a luckwarm 13-8-1-1-1 in almost 36 minutes, not too sexy and that’s on a lackluster Syracuse team, and that 8 rebounds also comes because really nobody collects boards on that team. Even in today small ball 4 league, he’s a tweener, I’m not sure he’ll be able to defend in the NBA as he didn’t have the body to bang inside nor the ability to defend on the wing, his shot blocking is nice but won’t make up for it. He could be a nice role player, but I don’t buy that 15-25 hype (not in 2017). 
The other thing bothers me in Lydon’s potential is that he’s from Syracuse. I really respect Boeheim and like the Orange in general but we can make a statement: Syracuse always makes their players look better for the NBA, than they actually are. Since Carmelo Anthony Syracuse only produced overdrafted busts in the first round and useless garbage in the second round (the only exception could be Jerami Grant). May sounds harsh but that’s the reality…First round results: Flynn #6, Wesley Johnson #4, Waiters #4 (yes, recently plays well on a depleted Heat, bust anyway), Fab Melo #22, MCW #11 (there are a lot of belivers here, but he’s just bad) and Ennis #18. The jury is still out there on McCullough and Malachi, though I don’t like either. Watkins, Nichols, Rautins, Kris Joseph, Christmas and Gbinje combined for 66 NBA games from the second round (sans Jerami). Very poor list compared to the hype surrounding them.

 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Tyus Battle is satrting to heat up as well. 

[cuseflynn10Participant]

Roberson should never have been in the mock drafst. He has elite rebound potential for a forward, but he’s so inconsistent. He averaged 13 rpg in the tourney last year and had a 14 point and 20 rebound game against Duke (12 of those rebounds were offensive). If he was consistent as a rebounder, maybe you could make the case as a 50-60 range pick since he has one really good tool that could translate, but that’s not the case. His offensive game is non-existant, likely in large part to Boheim railing into him so often. He’s pretty much afraid to shoot at this point.

If Syracuse has a second rounder this year it’s probably Andrew White. John Gillon has had a couple big games, but he’s pretty inconsistent and his height will be even more of a disadvantage at the next level. White on the other hand has good size at 6’7 210 and he’s a great 3 point shooter. I think some teams may take a look at him as a shooter off the bench.

Battle has been huge for Syracuse this year. I was hoping he’d start from day 1 and was even hoping he’d take over some PG duties, but that may have to wait until next year. He probably won’t leave as a freshman, but he could be putting up something like 15-4-3 next year and be a late lotto to mid-first type pick if he continues to develop.

As for Lydon, he probably doesn’t have much to improve upon by coming back next year even though I hope he returns purely for selfish reasons. He’s pretty much a known commodity at this point. He’s a 6’9 stretch 4 shooting 40.8% from deep over his 233 attempts beyond the arc in his career, but he has to play out of position in the zone. He doesn’t have great mobility on the wings, but he makes up for it with his zone IQ and length. In the middle, he has better mobility relative to other bigs, but he lacks the size to bang down low. Offensively, he has a decent post game and can shoot, but he lacks an explosive first step and a dribble drive ability, relegating him to a catch and shoot role on the perimeter or a back to the basket game in the paint. His explosiveness and ball handling are definitely his two most glaring weaknesses. Sure, another year of college could help those two areas, but I think the only way he comes back is if he’s told consistently that he’s a second rounder. If people tell him he’s a first rounder, he’s probably leaving if I had to guess. 

[OhCanada-Participant]

If Im a young NBA team trying to develop some gaurds next year I wouldnt mimd drafting Gillon in the 2nd round for his intangibles alone. He really gets after it and is one of the most competitive and confident players in the NCAA. Having him around your “coveted” gaurd prospects in Summer League, Training Camp, and Preseason would increase internal competition and with the g-league adding 3 roster spots you would actually be able to hold into him.

[cuseflynn10Participant]

I’m going to play devil’s advocate for Syracuse’s 10 current NBA players.

Carmelo Anthony – If anything he went "too low" in the draft. He’d go second in a 2003 redraft instead of third, and he’s been one of the NBA’s best in the last 14 years. 

Wes Johnson – He played for Iowa State for two seasons and Syracuse for one. As the #4 pick, he definitely didn’t live up to the billing, but that’s in large part because he shot 42% from deep in college and is only shooting 34% from deep in the pros. With his athleticism, the main thing keeping him off the court is his consistent scoring ability that he had in college, but doesn’t have in the NBA. Can’t really blame Syracuse for his NBA strugles in my opinion.

Dion Waiters – He’s really breaking out this year at 25 years old. His playing style clashed with Kyrie in Cleveland and he was playing third or fourth fiddle in OKC. Now that he has a larger role, he’s stepping up and delivering. If you look at his second NBA season stats, they really aren’t too far off from his stats this season. The main thing is that he’s getting more exposure now since he doesn’t have to compete with Kyrie, LeBron, Westbrook, and KD for attention. Was #4 too high? Yes, but I think he’s a top 7 or 8 player from that draft class, so it’s not too bad of a reach.

Michael Carter-Williams – He shot 43.8% from deep in two college seasons. That clearly hasn’t translated to the NBA. He did win ROTY so that has to be worth something in this discussion. He went #11 on draft night, and in a redraft I think he’d still go somewhere in that neighborhood.

Jerami Grant – He fell to #39 but he’s really made a name out of himself as a defender. He’d definitely go in the first round in a redraft.

Tyler Ennis – Can’t really fault him for leaving early even though he wasn’t ready physically for the NBA. His stock was at the highest it ever would be when he left. His basketball IQ was great at college, but his other skills didn’t really scream out as NBA caliber. He’s still just 22 years old, and at best he’ll be a career backup. At worst he’ll be out of the league in a few years. But this is a kid who flew under the radar in high school and Syracuse turned in to a first rounder in one year. Is it a good thing that Syracuse can develop players or a bad thing that they don’t pan out in the NBA?

Chris McCullough – only played 16 games before tearing his ACL. I loved his potential, but I can’t really attribute his success or failures to the 16 non-conference games he played at Syracuse.

Rakeem Christmas – He had a great senior year averaging 17.5ppg-9.1rpg-2.5bpg-1.5apg. He hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself in the NBA, but he’s getting a chance as of late and got 8 points and 12 boards in his last two games. He came into the league with the expectation of being a backup and I think he’s capable of being a good big off the bench. 

Malachi Richardson – Probably should have returned for one more year, but he had huge performances in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 and was told he’d be a lottery pick. He’s killed it in the D-League for whatever that’s worth, but he just got hurt and will be stuck behind Buddy on the depth chart now. Things aren’t working out as well as he’d probably hoped when he left, but it’s still way too early to write him off.

Michael Gbinije – He played one year at Duke and three years in Syracuse. The development he showed in his three years at Syracuse was incredible. He averaged 18-4-4 his senior year playing as a 6’7 PG, even though he was a SG/SF. He’s another guy like Christmas who is expected to be a bench player. His size and versatility was great in college, but those advantages probably aren’t as prominent in the NBA. 

 

Bonus: Jonny Flynn had a hip injury that derailed his career. Instead of building off of a solid rookie campaign, he bounced around the league as a backup and was out of the league in a few seasons. For what it’s worth, Jonny Flynn averaged 14-4-2 as a 20 year old in his rookie season and D’Angelo Russell averaged 13-3-3 his rookie season as a 20 year old. So if Jonny Flynn is a bust, it’s due to his injury, not because of his performance in the NBA (unless we also want to call Russell a bust already).

 

 

 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

If you are saying you would take Melo over Darko, you have a point. Saying he would go second in a redraft over a player who led a team to a championship and was a second banana on two others is a whole other thing. In my mind, Melo still goes 3rd.

I am usually not a person who blames college programs for players not translating to the league, but one thing that concerns me a bit about your "devil’s advocate" position are the statistics you are using. For one, college three-point shooting is not something that absolutely translates to the NBA. With Johnson, bringing up one year of shooting 41.5% 3PT on 1.45 made three pointers per game, is not a large sample size. I would think from his mid-range shooting, one might see that Johnson’s shooting was not necessarily going to be a strength moving forward. Hindsight is 20/20, though it is just something to ponder.

The others:

Dion Waiters: Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond, Draymond Green, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder. Those are 9 players you could absolutely argue to take over Waiters as of what there role is going forward. He does have a 20-16 record on the year in games he has played, but I think his stats are a little less promising than one makes them out to be. He still has a negative net rating, poor TS% and while his three-point mark is encouraging, his overall shooting leaves something to be desired. Felt like he was straight up bad at times for Oklahoma City in the play-offs last year. Fourth fiddle, he was not, in my mind. Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams, Kanter were all much more important in my mind.

Michael Carter-Williams: Shot 42-137 (30.7% 3PT) from deep in two college seasons. Not sure where you got the other number from. Shooting was never considered a strength for him. He still was not necessarily a bad pick and while his Rookie of the Year win has not necessarily put him on as large of an upward trajectory in his draft as one might think, his passing and ability to create turnovers probably put him at or above where he was taken.

One last thing I wanted to bring up is the raw statistical comparison you did with Russell and Flynn. Yes, their rookie year numbers do look a lot alike (though it is funny you rounded up 13.5 to make it a full point more when Russell averaged 13.2), but lets not act like their predicted outcomes moving forward were close to the same. D-Lo also was a year younger than Flynn, they are both born in Feburary. While David Kahn apparently still felt like Flynn was going to be an All-Star, there were reasons to be concerned with the pick at the time and even after his rookie season. The hip injury not withstanding, thinking the Flynn pick was not a good one is not at all mutually exclusive to believing D’Angelo Russell might not be a total bust. However, it does look like there will be much reason for thinking Russell will not go #2 in a re-draft (there is this guy named Porzingis).

[BallerScriptParticipant]

 43.8% is not MCW’s college 3 ball percentage…

43.8% is Andrew White III’s FG% in ACC games… Keep up man

 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Thats alot of bad drafting. Good job by JimBo though. That zone defence makes everyone look like an elite defender. He got Andy Rautins drafted 38th (another great Knicks decision). He was then dragged out of the league kicking and screaming like a highschool student with fake ID at a club. The more I read your posts the more it reminds me Syracuse players slways play better at Syracuse. 

[rongataParticipant]

 I don’t think syracuse is a program that is capable of preparing players for the NBA, I don’t know if we can count melo because he probably should have went straight out of high school. Outside of melo and derick Coleman, everyone else has been really bad, my hopes are that Malachi can have a good career but it sure doesn’t seem like it. Sacramento is on the conversation for the worst team in the league and he cannot get on the floor there, you can only go down from there.

[cuseflynn10Participant]

Can you point to a reason why you think Syracuse is not "capable of preparing players for the NBA?" And if so, is the reason Syracuse’s fault or is it the player underachieving?

Everyone always talks about how Syracuse players have to learn man-to-man going to the NBA, but that’s really not true. First, most players play man for their entire lives, so it’s not that steep of a learning curve. Second, the players practice man just as much, if not more than zone, because they have to practice against what they are going to face in a game. I think if you are going to point to a reason, that reason needs to be something on the offensive side of things.

To me, players tend to be good based more on their own merit than the school they went to. Carmelo was going to be great regardless of the college he went to. Anthony Davis was going to be great regardless of the college he went to. Andrew Wiggins was going to be great regardless of the school he went to. I just don’t see the point in say this school produces good NBA players while this school produces bad NBA players, when it’s more on than players’ shoulders than the schools. If anything, Syracuse does a better job of developing high schoolers ranked in the 25-75 range than the elite schools do at developing the top 25 high school talents.

 

 

 

 

[rongataParticipant]

 I think for me I’m looking at all star births, championships etc, but quite frankly most syracuse players have a big problem staying in the NBA. I don’t think we can include melo in this conversation because he truly should have never played college basketball, but I don’t think any other Syracuse player outside of derrick Coleman has had success in the NBA. I truly think the administration at syracuse doesn’t prepare players for the next level. Let’s look at this, if Tyler lydon was at Kentucky, he would be in the conversation as a top 10 pick without all the doubt that clouds him now, at this moment he’s probably an early second round pick in reality. Take malik monk or de’aron fox and put them on Syracuse, there’s a good chance we will not be discussing then as lottery picks next year.

[cuseflynn10Participant]

Lydon was the #76 player in his high school class. All I’m saying is that Syracuse is good at getting guys ranked in the #25-#75 range drafted in the first round. Any school can get top 10 high school players drafted in the first round because NBA teams will still take top 10 high school players purely off of potential (see Skal Labissiere for an example). 

I just don’t see how you can fault Syracuse for what the players do in the NBA. Say Andrew Wiggins picked Syracuse for example. He’d still be the same player he is in the NBA today had he gone to Cuse instead of Kansas. Look at Ben Simmons. You really think LSU has great player development? Obviously he hasn’t played yet in the NBA, but I think it’s fair to assume it didn’t really matter much what college he went given that NBA teams were going to take him #1 regardless. 

Tyler Lydon would still have the same strengths and the same weaknesses that make him a mid-to-late first round pick right now if he went to Kentucky. The only thing he would have going for him more at Kentucky than Syracuse is the brand recognition that comes along with all of Calipari’s players. Maybe that inflates some of their value, in which case maybe we should be talking about how some Kentucky players go too high in the draft if anything.

[binetParticipant]

 That’s an easy reason.

Most Syracuse guys are bad to terrible defenders at the next level where you cannot play traditionnal zone defense because of the defensive 3 second violation.

Your program also is spending a lot of training time to teach that obsolete defense at the next level, which is incredibly effective at the NCAA level, hence the good results and draft stock.

It also weirdly allows your guys to be question marks or "good defenders" on scouts minds because they have decent DRtg/DBPM despite being poor defenders, or that they could not show their defensive prowess because of this marquee Syracuse thing.

 

 

 

 

[rongataParticipant]

If we use the number one player in the class yes they can pick any college and still have success. But I think more to my point would be everyone else in the class mainly 2 through 100. I think you can put and end to my side of this discussion by naming a player outside of Carmelo Anthony who has had success in the NBA out of Syracuse?

[OhCanada-Participant]

 I would say Dion Eaiters but he didnt really learn anything at Syracuse. Boheim tried to bring him off the bench and prepare him for his likely NBA role and when that became his role at Cleveland and OKC he played slot worse. 

Rakeem Christmas looks like a promising backup but tbh he was a very promising big man and I sort of feel like he would have developed much better in other programs like MSU or Indiana just to name a few. 

Seems to me that Boheim doesnt really develop his players skills but rather he is a master at hiding their weaknesses and showcasing thier strengths. He can get the most out of his guys as well which gets them drafted. 

 

 

 

 

[rongataParticipant]

Yes I think that’s my point, it’s a good program but its a good college program, they do not prepare players for the next level. I know when you support this team its hard to admit but when they have 1 or 2 players drafted every year and not one has had success in the nba, i think its safe to say that program is failing the players that have dreams of making it to the nba.

[kobyzParticipant]

Lydon remind me that Latvian kid from the Spurs…

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