This topic contains 7 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by 
TomShoeSo, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for sh*ts and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for either Oct. 5 (Start of the preseason), or Oct. 30 (start of the regular season), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.
Not suprised the Magic faded off page 1 so fast. We all knew that they’re going to be awful for the next 3 seasons :/ Anyway, Knicks up, Jazz tomorrow, and the first of the lottery teams, the Lin-led Rockets, coming Monday.
Enjoy.
-TomShoe
PROJECTED STARTERS
RAYMOND FELTON, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 14.4 3.3 7.9 13.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Stocky point guard who pushes the pace. Put on weight and lost a step.
+ Passable outside shooter who can play off the ball. Solid defender but a bit short.
+ Mediocre finisher who struggled with turnovers. Decent passer.Analysis
Statistically, Felton’s 2011-12 season doesn’t look nearly as bad as Blazers fans made it out to be, but that’s partly because he played his best after Portland’s season was already circling the drain. Felton proved far more turnover-prone and combustible than originally advertised, with locals coining the term "Feltdown" to describe his proclivity for late-game turnovers. For the season he ranked 52nd among point guards in turnover ratio, offsetting any positives from his solid assist ratio.Moreover, Felton came in with a rep as Mr. Sunshine in the locker room, but became one of the leaders in the team’s mutiny against Nate McMillan. Showing up out of shape — a growing concern in recent seasons as his belly has begun bulging — he played terribly in the season’s first half, shooting 37.6 percent overall and 24.8 percent on 3s before the All-Star break.
After that he put up normal Felton numbers, but his wayward 3-point shooting for the season stands out as a key reason for his decline. Felton made just 30.5 percent after hitting in the high 30s the previous two seasons; ironically, one of the reasons for the Blazers swapping out Andre Miller for him was the idea that he could space the floor better.
Defensively, Felton graded out solidly. Portland guarded much better with him on the court, but his other data wasn’t nearly as strong. Subjectively, he wasn’t as effective as he’d been in Charlotte but was still a league-average player at this end.
Overall, one suspects Felton’s 3-point numbers will regress to the mean, but the bigger concern is his conditioning. If he gets in shape there’s no reason he can’t have a few more decent seasons, and he may prove to be a decent value signing for New York. Nonetheless, at this point he seems a much better fit as a backup than a starter.
JASON KIDD, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 8.3 5.6 6.8 11.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Big, savvy point guard who rebounds very well. Great open-court passer.
+ Struggles to check quick guards, but excels at defending wings and playing team defense.
+ Makes careless turnovers. Shoots spot-up 3s but is a non-factor in the half-court offense.Analysis
Fun fact: Kidd drew Dallas’ first free throw attempts of the season when he got fouled shooting a 3 in the opener against Miami. He proceeded to earn 25 free throw attempts the rest of the season. Ugh.While it’s amazing that he can compete at this level, at the league’s fastest position, at age 39, Kidd has become a backup-caliber player. It’s not clear to me why the Knicks were so smitten that he got three guaranteed years.
Offensively, he’s become a spot-up shooter and little else in the half court. Although announcers rightly discuss how he’s improved in this area, he’s still not much of a shooter: He’s made 35.4 percent and 34 percent of his 3s the past two seasons. That’s about a wrap for his scoring game; more than four-fifths of his shots were 3s last season, placing him first by a mile among point guards and third in the NBA overall (see chart).
Greatest percentage of shot attempts from 3, 2011-12
Player Team 3A/FGA DeShawn Stevenson NJ 84.3 Steve Novak NY 83.7 Jason Kidd Dal 81.7 Daequan Cook OKC 77.0 James Jones Mia 76.0 Min. 500 minutes Kidd took only 46 2-point shots in 48 games and tried a mere 10 at the rim. In a related story, he had only 28 free throw attempts all season. Three of those were on technical fouls and two others were from opponents fouling intentionally.
Defensively, however, Kidd remains effective as long as he can guard the right types of players (i.e., not quick ones). Typically he works best paired with a quick shooting guard who can cross-match with him; Iman Shumpert should be perfect for this role if he recovers fully from his knee injury, but looking at the Knicks’ current roster, Kidd may be left exposed at times by having to check quick point guards himself. If so, his solid defensive metrics from last season will take a turn south.
Nonetheless, his instincts for the ball remain amazing and have diminished little with age. Kidd was sixth among point guards in steals per minute and second in rebound rate.
CARMELO ANTHONY, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 26.4 7.4 3.8 20.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Dominant power forward masquerading as a 3. Elite scorer with great handle.
+ Average shooter who will force it. Can overpower smaller wings on the block.
+ Decent passer but a lethargic defender, especially on the wing. Excellent rebounder.Analysis
The move to New York pretty much guaranteed that Anthony would become the most overrated player in basketball, and folks haven’t disappointed me on that front. Routinely referred to as a superstar despite the pesky fact that his teams don’t improve all that much with him on the court, Anthony is better described as an extreme volume scorer. Last season he averaged a staggering 26.5 points per 40 minutes, but with a league-average true shooting percentage, ordinary assist and turnover numbers, and little to no defense. It’s hard to conclude that he made a huge impact on New York’s bottom line.The big problem for Melo is that he likes long 2s, but long 2s don’t like him. He made only 36.9 percent of his 2s from 10 feet and beyond, but attempted nearly eight a game. He also shot just 30.5 percent on 3s. Going to the cup it’s a different story; Anthony had the eighth-best free throw rate among small forwards and makes his free throws. But he had two jump shots for every attempt at the rim.
The exception was when he played as a power forward, in which case he just destroyed people. Bigger defenders can’t keep up with him on the dribble and struggle chasing him around the perimeter; according to 82games.com, Anthony had a PER of 29.5 as a 4 and just 17.3 as a 3 last season.
His splits from other seasons aren’t quite as dramatic, but he certainly isn’t worse as a 4; between the league’s trend toward smaller and faster lineups and Anthony being a huge 3 who isn’t getting any younger, it seems an obvious progression. He already rebounds like a power forward, ranking eighth among small forwards in rebound rate.
Playing the 4 may also diminish Anthony’s defensive problems. He openly loafs on the perimeter and isn’t all that quick laterally to start, but relishes physical play and has no problem banging against bigger players. New York gave up 4.2 points per 100 possessions more with Anthony on the court last season, which is another reason he just doesn’t move the needle that much as a small forward. As a floor-spacing 4 with an elite defender behind him, perhaps he could finally deliver production that’s at least somewhat close to his exalted reputation.
AMARE STOUDEMIRE, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 21.3 9.4 1.6 17.4 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Scoring big man who has lost considerable explosiveness due to knee injuries.
+ Good midrange shooter; uses the threat to set up his drives. Rarely passes off the dribble.
+ Low-effort defender, particularly at the 4. Stops guarding when he picks up fouls.Analysis
Stoudemire was still a fairly useful player last season, but it was impossible to watch him and not think instead of what he was a year or two earlier. That explosive first step to his right? Gone. Utterly, irretrievably, gone.What’s interesting is that it didn’t impact his stats the way you’d expect. Stoudemire took nearly as many shots at the rim as he had previously and converted a strong 69.7 percent of them. Instead, the issue is that opponents now feel free to crowd his jumper. He declined to 34.5 percent on long 2s last season, en route to a career-low 48.3 percent mark from the field. Moreover, with more arms around him, his ballhandling numbers went completely to pot; Stoudemire ranked 67th out of 70 power forwards in pure point rating. All told, he lost more than six points off his 40-minute scoring rate.
Defensively, Stoudemire was a major drain. The Knicks tried playing him at the 4 to fit in with their other two high-priced frontcourt players, but he struggles getting to the perimeter against floor spacers and often gets confused on the weak side. New York gave up 5.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and even this assessment may be kind.
Ideally, New York would make Stoudemire a sixth man so he wouldn’t have to guard good players as often and could play center more. Then it could move Carmelo Anthony to power forward and have everybody in a more suitable role. For some reason there seems to be tremendous internal resistance to trying this.
TYSON CHANDLER, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.9 12.2 0.9 15.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Long, mobile big man who alters shots and controls defensive boards.
+ No post game. Good foul shooter. Strong finisher around the basket.
+ Runs the floor well. Good leader. Can’t handle the ball. Won’t take a bad shot.Analysis
Chandler won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, yet for number geeks the more interesting part might have been his offense. A strong finisher who never takes a bad shot, Chandler’s 67.9 field goal percentage was the third best of all time, trailing only two Wilt Chamberlain campaigns, while his 70.8 TS% was the best in NBA history. Chandler’s mark the previous season was pushed down to fourth, so he’s on quite a roll (see chart).Top TS% of all time
Player Year TS% Tyson Chandler 2011-12 70.8 Artis Gilmore 1981-82 70.2 Artis Gilmore 1980-81 69.9 Tyson Chandler 2010-11 69.0 Wilt Chamberlain 1972-73 68.9 Min. 500 minutes. Source: Basketball-reference.com Additionally, Chandler had the league’s best shooting percentage at the rim at 75.8 percent, and supplemented it with a fairly phenomenal 0.89 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That also nearly led the league, placing him third, and was far and away the best among players whom opponents weren’t intentionally trying to foul. In fact, Chandler could have added to his TS% record if not for a slump to 68.9 percent from the line; the previous two years he’d hit 73.2 percent.
Of course, Chandler chose his spots — he was 50th among centers in usage rate — but even so, his finishing was so efficient that it made him a very valuable offensive player. As for his defense, his presence transformed the Knicks from well below average into a strong, cohesive unit. They gave up 1.2 points per 100 possessions less with Chandler on the court, an amazing stat because he nearly always shared the court with human turnstiles Anthony and Stoudemire at the forward spots. Opposing centers mustered just a 12.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
Overall, he was the Knicks’ best player, even though seemingly everybody on last season’s team except Chandler earned headlines at one point or another. The only downer was a brutally awful playoff series against Miami, highlighted by a zero-point, seven-turnover, one-flagrant disaster in Game 1 when he was battling the flu.
RESERVES
J.R. SMITH, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 19.8 6.0 3.7 16.1 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Talented, pouty guard with unlimited shooting range. Great leaping ability.
+ Outstanding scoring ability, but makes poor decisions and doesn’t guard.
+ Can create off the dribble, but makes questionable decisions. Good rebounder.Ask a fan which player the Knicks imported from China last season and chances are they’ll guess wrong; the correct answer is Smith, whom the Knicks signed after he spent half a season in the Chinese league.
Smith struggled to get his 3-ball going, making only 34.7 percent, and for that reason his numbers were down a bit from the previous season. His range is when he gets off the bus, but he’s not that consistent a shooter — a career 36.9 percent on 3s and 74.0 percent from the line. If he was, he’d be unguardable.
But in the big picture he did the usual Smith things offensively with the second unit, creating offense, bewildering with bad shots and then restoring faith with amazing ones, and running the pick-and-roll just decently enough to keep doing it. He’s actually become much better about ball security, ranking 11th at his position in turnover ratio, and he can play point guard in a pinch.
Defensively, Smith is awful. Synergy rated him as the worst player in the league in 2010-11; in 2011-12, he merely rated as the worst on his team. With his talent, he should be much better than this. The Knicks gave up more points with him on the court, just like all his teams have, and as usual his gambles were a big reason: Smith was third among shooting guards in steals per minute, but at the expense of ranking seventh in foul rate and likely first in 5-on-4s created by missed gambles. The one thing he does well is rebound, again finishing well above the norm for his position in rebound rate.
STEVE NOVAK, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 16.6 4.1 0.5 13.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Deadly accurate 3-point shooter off the catch with few other offensive skills.
+ Much-improved defender after being routinely torched in previous years.
+ Subpar rebounder. Can’t create his own shot. Low-mistake player.Talk about a specialist. Novak played 1,019 minutes last season and took 337 shots. You know how many of them came at the rim? Would you believe … ZERO?!?! Miami’s James Jones also had zero shots at the rim last season, but he had half as many shots and half as many minutes as Novak (see chart). Amazingly, Novak rarely even stepped inside the 3-point line; 83.7 percent of his shot attempts were triples.
Lowest % of shots at rim, 2011-12
Player Team Pct. of FG at rim Steve Novak NY 0.0 James Jones Mia 0.0 Daequan Cook OKC 3.1 Mike Bibby NY 3.2 Kyle Korver Chi 3.6 Min. 500 minutes. Source: Hoopdata.com Look at the rest of his stat line and you’d think he hardly played: 26 free throw attempts, 9 blocks, 9 offensive boards, 12 assists. But then there’s the little fact that he took 282 3-pointers and made a league-leading 47.2 percent of them. This guy is the Rolls Royce of catch-and-shoot weapons, a guaranteed trifecta waiting to happen for any guard who can find him on a kickout.
Novak could always shoot, but the difference last season was that he defended competently enough to stay on the court for his offense. While he lacks strength and isn’t a guy you’d willingly put on an elite scorer, Novak rated as only a mildly below-average defensive player last season. Previously, he’d graded out as blackened toast. As long as he can get a few stops, his deadly jump shot will keep him in the league … and perhaps one of these years he can get a shot at the rim.
MARCUS CAMBY, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 7.5 14.6 3.2 15.0 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Lanky big man who defends the rim and rebounds. Won’t leave the paint on defense.
+ Good handle for his size and an excellent high-post passer. Awkward outside shot.
+ Rarely attacks the rim and struggles to finish. Lacks strength. Poor foul shooter.Analysis
Camby led the NBA in rebound rate at age 37, which is an amazing accomplishment no matter how you slice it. He also ranked in the top 15 at his position in both blocks and steals per minute, and was third among centers in pure point rating. These metrics overrate Camby’s defense — he won’t leave the paint to help his guards because he knows rebounds get him paid, leaving lots of open jumpers for pick-and-roll point guards — but overall he’s still pretty solid at that end.Rebound Rate Leaders, 2011-12
Player Team DRR Marcus Camby Por-Hou 22.8 Dwight Howard Orl 21.9 Reggie Evans LAC 20.9 Anderson Varejao Cle 20.8 Aaron Gray Tor 20.3 Min. 500 minutes Offensively, however, he’s a bust. Here’s an amazing stat: Camby had the worst shooting percentage at the rim among bigs in 2010-11; technically, he was five shots short of the minimum 150 shots, but if he had made all five he still would have been last. Wanna know what happened in 2011-12? Camby was the worst again, shooting 49.3 percent at the rim. Except this time he was four shots short of the minimum. But, again, if he’d made all four he would have been last.
So basically, he’s just a really, really bad finisher for a player of his size, and that limits his offensive impact — especially since he can’t shoot either and his free throw shooting has gone off the rails the past couple seasons. Overall, Camby averaged an anemic 8.5 points per 40 minutes with a terrible TS%; he was just so good on the boards that he had a solid PER anyway. For as long as he continues doing so, he’ll be a solid backup center.
IMAN SHUMPERT, G
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 13.8 4.6 4.0 11.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Tall, long combo guard with explosive leaping ability. Poor outside shooter.
+ Active, zippy defender with All-Defense potential. Far too aggressive.
+ Solid handle, but struggles at the point with decision-making. Tore his ACL in the playoffs.Analysis
It’s rare for a rookie to be an impact defender because there is so much to learn at this level, but Shumpert was one at times last season. He ranked second among shooting guards in steals per minute and his defensive pressure was a palpable force all season, especially in contrast to the other Knicks guards.However, Shumpert’s aggressiveness had a cost too, and he has to learn how to manage risk and reward better at that end. He fouled 4.09 times per 40 minutes, a ridiculously high rate for a guard, and gave up enough openings for drives that it often offset the impact of his pressure.
Offensively, Shumpert has more work to do. He’s very quick and he can get his shot, but that’s not always a good thing; he shot 31.8 percent on 2s outside the basket area and only 30.6 percent on 3s, a shot he took far too readily. He showed finishing skills (61.6 percent at the rim), but needs to refine his shot selection and improve his stroke.
Shumpert played a lot of minutes at the point but probably shouldn’t, as his negative pure point rating jibes with the general impression that he was a fairly disastrous offensive orchestrator prone to poor decisions. After the All-Star break, when he played more on the wing, his shooting numbers improved and his turnovers declined dramatically.
Unfortunately, Shumpert tore his ACL in the playoffs and may miss most of this season. The hope is that his quickness will return intact, because that was the unique feature that made him an NBA player.
RONNIE BREWER, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.8 5.6 3.3 11.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Long-armed wing who gets his hands on lots of balls. Disruptive defender.
+ Good cutter off the ball, especially along baselines. Good finisher at the basket.
+ Poor shooter with terrible form. Quality ball handler for his size. Rebounds well.Analysis
Brewer’s offensive game suffered last season, as he took a lot of jump shots and mostly missed them. More than half his shots were beyond 10 feet, but he made only 33.3 percent of his long 2s and was even worse on 3s (27.5 percent). While he can still get points in the basket area on cuts and transitions, the net impact was a brutal TS% — he has to either stop taking jump shots or make more of them. One hopes New York’s system will give him more freedom to make the kind of off-ball cuts and flashes that made him dangerous in Utah.One plus area for Brewer is his ballhandling, which is near point-guard caliber. Brewer once again combined a very high assist ratio with a very low turnover ratio, ranking seventh among shooting guards in pure point rating.
Defensively, however, Brewer is an ace who gets his hands on lots of balls while hardly ever fouling. Only three shooting guards were whistled less often, yet Brewer was sixth at his position in steals per minutes. (He also, helpfully, was 14th in rebound rate.) Opposing shooting guards had just an 11.8 PER against him last season according to 82games.com, and with his length and mobility it’s easy to see why. He should take over the stopper role from Iman Shumpert, making him a bargain at the veteran’s minimum. Alas, his inability to space the floor will once again banish him to the pine in fourth quarters.
KURT THOMAS, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 5.4 8.8 2.3 5.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Ancient, undersized pick-and-pop big man. Rarely shoots in the paint.
+ Cagey, tough, strong and competitive. Low-mistake player. Very slow.
+ Still a valuable defensive player due to smarts and toughness.The amazing thing about Thomas is that, even at age 39, he was still able to generate impressive results on defense. Synergy rated Thomas the most effective Blazers defender and one of the league’s better centers, and the Blazers gave up 6.8 points per 100 possessions less with Thomas on the court. He’s very slow, but he’s never out of position and uses his strength well; additionally, he’s still a pretty decent rebounder. Thomas also uses his fouls liberally, as his rate of one every 6.5 minutes was one of the highest in basketball.
Percent of shots from 10 to 23 feet, 2011-12 leaders
Player Team Pct. as midrange Kurt Thomas Por 80.9 Brandon Bass Bos 67.1 Tyrus Thomas Cha 67.0 D.J. White Cha 64.9 Jason Smith NO 64.7 Min 500 minutes. Source: Hoopdata.com Offensively, however, he brings so little to the table that it’s tough to justify extended minutes for him. Thomas never attacks the paint, leading the NBA in the portion of his shots taken as long 2s (see chart). While he’s a very good shooter from there, making 48.0 percent of his long 2s, it’s less than ideal to have your backup center make seven shots in the basket area the entire season. The usual side effects came with that: virtually no free throw attempts, a low TS% and a piddling 8.0 points per 40 minutes.
Thomas still has value as a third center for a playoff team and will fill that exact role after an offseason trade sent him back to the Knicks.
JAMES WHITE, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ High-flying wing who can throw down highlight-film dunks. Thin frame.
+ Good slasher who draws fouls. Needs strength and better ball skills.
+ Attitude is a question. Average at best as an outside shooter.White has played in 10 NBA games and is 29 years old, so let’s not get carried away, but a lot of people have felt he has NBA talent and never quite ended up on the right team at the right time. New York took a flier on him hoping this will be that time. He can leap and get easy baskets in transition and slashing to the rim, and his stats in his last D-League campaign in 2008-09 were excellent. He won’t be overmatched defensively, but will need to keep his head on straight and knock down some corner 3s with his suspect jumper.
PABLO PRIGIONI, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Small, traditional pass-first point guard. Struggles to get to the basket.
+ Spot-up shooter with mediocre results. Rebounds well for his size. B athlete at best.Prigioni is an unusual European import — he’s 35 and at the tail end of a very productive run overseas, but he apparently wanted one taste of the NBA. His metrics from overseas suggest he’ll have a difficult time, especially when it comes to scoring. Prigioni’s translated Euroleague stats show him with only 7.7 points per 40 minutes and a shooting percentage in the high 30s; his translated stats from 2011 are even worse.
He’ll fill the sheet in other categories, as he’s a good passer and his translated rebound rate is very good for a small guard (about five boards per 40 minutes). However, even in Europe he rarely shoots 2s, and he’s only made a third of his 3-pointers over the past two seasons. Basically, it appears he’s a replacement-level player, but given the thin New York backcourt he may have to play a lot anyway.
0
Platypus
Pistol Pete. The Pelican
gone
BigChamp12
Jr. ROXAS
TallmanNYC
joecheck88
| You must be logged in to reply to this topic. | Login |