[Ghost01Participant]

 I’ve noticed on this site in particular a lot of people will suggest how they hope a fringe lottery pick player, or a player with some undeveloped skills, or a guy who maybe hasn’t lived up to expectations "Comes back for another year".

I see the theory behind this plan, and I see why people believe it is a good idea. But I do not agree with this idea. 

There are instances where a player comes back, and his increased minutes, experience, and overall skill improve his performance, and heighten his draft stock. However, this is almost always not the case. There are several things working against you every time you roll back to come back another yet. And while I do agree certain players in certain situations should come back (i.e. the Harrison twins this year), those situations are usually because I just don’t see at all what they are going to do to stand out at the NBA level, and have no real value long term.

The best support for this in terms of a player staying: James McAdoo

Whatever you think of McAdoo as a player or a prospect is your call, but the fact is, he would have went in the Top 10 had he came out after his freshman year. Would the team have necessarily drafted a bust? Most likely, but again, I am talking about the player’s perspective. Nothing from these last 2 years has helped McAdoo’s pro stock. He continues to plunge, current 40th in 2014 on the site, and 41th in 2015 on draftexpress. He is now regarded as a second rounder, and there is a chance he never steps foot on an NBA floor. The last two years McAdoo has been UNC’s top overall player, he plays for a historic program and a historic coach, but nothing about getting all that experience and putting in all that time has improved him. He has had some huge games, but his inconsistency, and his deficiencies as a basketball player are what has stuck out to scouts the most. I have no idea what would have happened had he came out in the 2012 draft, but I suppose he couldn’t possibly be in worse shape than he is now, and he would have a few million dollars in the bank too.

The best support of this in terms of a player leaving: Lance Stephenson

Sure, Lance probably never had much interest in the college game, and there was probably no doubt in his mind he was going pro after his freshman season. But seeing as he was projected and ultimately picked as a 2nd rounder, odds are he wouldn’t have been advised by many scouts to go pro. Lance isn’t the best example, because he wasn’t even projected to be a high pick or get good guaranteed money, but he is still a guy who didn’t care what people thought of his current standing as a prospect, he chose to go pro. The way it is a good comparison is it shows that a guy who clearly wasn’t ready to be a big time contributer in the NBA joined a team, gained experience, and vastly improved every year he’s been in the league. Even if it is possible Lance would have raised his stock a bit, there are great odds he wouldn’t have, and could have even ended up undrafted.

The NBA is where these guys want to go, I know there are examples out there of guys who have come back and it has worked out for them, but I don’t see the glearing obvious ones. The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Blake Griffin, who would have still been a top 7-8 pick after his freshman year, but clearly improved to a high degree his sophomore year. Even Marcus Smart, who was continously cheered for coming back to school made the wrong decision. He would have probably gone no lower than 2nd to Orlando last year, and now he is going to be at best the 6th pick. His game didn’t change much, he got a year older, and he’s had a few "character" issues that could lead to teams flagging him.

The risk isn’t worth it. Get paid. If you are who you think you are, you will find your way in the NBA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 I totally agree with you.  There is so much risk in returning and trying to improve your draft stock.  There is of course the injury risk.  The other is that scouts have another year to pick apart yveour game and your weaknesses are magnified with another full year of college basketball.  If you’re guaranteed a top five pick there is absolutely no reason to come back to school, ESPECIALLY if you’re from a low income family and you need the money.  Some players are not all about the money and their families are pretty well off and they’re not looking to just get paid.  Mcadoo would’ve been a millionaire if he had come out in 2012, he would also be in the d-league or in Europe right now or perhaps out of basketball altogether.  Money was obviously not the deciding factor in Mcadoo coming back to UNC.  He sincerely loves being a college kid and wasn’t ready to leave.  He was one of thre most overrated high school prospects in a long time.  He won’t have his jersey in the rafters, he won’t be one of the greatest players to ever play at Carolina, but if he comes back next year, he’ll have a chance to win a national championship, have a degree from North Carolina and be a good four year player at one of the most prestigious universities in the country.  I think in the end, that will mean more to Mcadoo than any amount of money.  

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 I totally agree with you.  There is so much risk in returning and trying to improve your draft stock.  There is of course the injury risk.  The other is that scouts have another year to pick apart yveour game and your weaknesses are magnified with another full year of college basketball.  If you’re guaranteed a top five pick there is absolutely no reason to come back to school, ESPECIALLY if you’re from a low income family and you need the money.  Some players are not all about the money and their families are pretty well off and they’re not looking to just get paid.  Mcadoo would’ve been a millionaire if he had come out in 2012, he would also be in the d-league or in Europe right now or perhaps out of basketball altogether.  Money was obviously not the deciding factor in Mcadoo coming back to UNC.  He sincerely loves being a college kid and wasn’t ready to leave.  He was one of thre most overrated high school prospects in a long time.  He won’t have his jersey in the rafters, he won’t be one of the greatest players to ever play at Carolina, but if he comes back next year, he’ll have a chance to win a national championship, have a degree from North Carolina and be a good four year player at one of the most prestigious universities in the country.  I think in the end, that will mean more to Mcadoo than any amount of money.  

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I have been thinking that Aaron Gordon is like the new James McAdoo.  People like his athleticism and like his size pretty well, too but there are questions about which position he plays.

I could see Aaron Gordon slipping in the draft if he comes back next year, even if his overall game improves.

Right now, Gordon could go as high as top ten.  I could see a team picking him right after Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Randle, and Smart are off the board.

OR, he could come back and get lost in the shuffle and fall to the 15-25 range especially if some guys like Selden, Tyler Ennis, and some others come back.

Sometimes you just don’t know.

Yeah, Aaron Gordon looks like a TOP FIVE pick if he comes back next year, but he could go in that 7-10 range THIS YEAR.  The risk isn’t worth it.

… I even think that McAdoo can move back up a bit (to the first round), but he left a lot of money on the table by staying in school. 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I have been thinking that Aaron Gordon is like the new James McAdoo.  People like his athleticism and like his size pretty well, too but there are questions about which position he plays.

I could see Aaron Gordon slipping in the draft if he comes back next year, even if his overall game improves.

Right now, Gordon could go as high as top ten.  I could see a team picking him right after Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Randle, and Smart are off the board.

OR, he could come back and get lost in the shuffle and fall to the 15-25 range especially if some guys like Selden, Tyler Ennis, and some others come back.

Sometimes you just don’t know.

Yeah, Aaron Gordon looks like a TOP FIVE pick if he comes back next year, but he could go in that 7-10 range THIS YEAR.  The risk isn’t worth it.

… I even think that McAdoo can move back up a bit (to the first round), but he left a lot of money on the table by staying in school. 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

It is the players perspective and I do support them along that angle. From the perspective of a potential draftee, if your stock is high, it is really hard and risky to turn down the money. So, I agree that it is not always the right move to go back to school. Still, there is another perspective where going back to school is incredibly helpful and that is from the perspective of GM’s and teams.

Had not seen this brought up here, but Jerry West just was on a radio show and referred to the 2014 draft class as being "poor". I disagree with that in terms of long term talent, however I think he has an incredibly valid point in immediate impact, in which case a majority of draft classes struggle in terms of a historical NBA perspective. Hear West out when he talks about guys not being "branded":

“And everyone is talking about an incredible draft class this year, I think it’s just the opposite, I think it’s a poor one myself. There are going to be prospects there. But these franchises have really struggled. At one time you could get a branded name, these kids are not branded today. They’re not branded.

“And by that I mean kids who have played in school for three or four years and comes out and people know who he is. He’s tutored, he’s more mature, more experienced. Those kinds of players come in and make an impact right away. But if you look at some of these kids, it takes about three years for them to get going. And for a team that’s really struggling, you’re selling your fans that this player’s going to make us better. Most of the time it does not happen today.”

Now, you think to yourself that by "branded", he is talking about them not having hype or a marketable name. That is NOT what he is talking about, I am fairly certain Jerry West is familiar with social media and what that has done. The interview came from ESPN radio and I am guessing he sees them talk about these young prospects. What he means is their readiness to contribute to a winning environment and help their teams compete right away. Not every rookie is able to do this, but the ones who are tend to have some experience and seasoning before entering the league.

That is where the draft has become more difficult now than it used to be in some ways. You are afraid to draft on a proven body of work and need to at least factor upside much more into the discussion. If you look at the past, of course there were cases where players proved to be much better than where they were chosen. At the very least, most of them had a track record and a proven body of work, plus you had many more players who were ready to contribute at a higher level than they are right now.

I understand the perceived look of the NCAA is a place hoarding athletes and making money off of them with little to give back. The "amateurism" tag has become a front and a lot of what goes on is unfair. Also, from a players perspective, believe the age limit is unfair. The track record of "prep to pros" and "one-and-dones" have produced a lot of long term successes. The thing this hurts is the short term. Guys are making a lot of money as the first few picks and a vast majority are not helping these teams get to winning situations in those seasons. So, can you see why NBA teams and personnel may want an age limit? 

As far as James Michael McAdoo is concerned, from his perspective, it seems like he more than likely should have entered the draft after his freshman season. His stock has slipped. Nonetheless, it could be better for his long term success that he didn’t. He may have struggled and been out of the league. Undoubtedly, he would have had a very difficult time with living up to the expectations along with his draft choice. We have seen that he has had a difficult enough time in college, the NBA would have been a very harsh reality.

Even though his stock has slipped, there was an upside to his decision that goes along with going back to school not always being a bad choice. One thing is that he is much more likely NOT to have huge expectations if he were to enter this season. He is also much more ready to contribute, in whatever way he could, immediately than he was after his freshman season. Plus, if he does end up staying, he does have a chance to maybe redeem his stock through working on his faults. I know that his first three years have many people writing him off, just stranger things have happened than a player finally putting things together during his senior season.

It is definitely a case by case basis and I do not think it is always the best decision to go back to school for some of these kids. Maybe you are right that McAdoo ended up losing out on millions. However, maybe he ends up being a better player and having longer sustained success by staying in college. Maybe he ends up signing a decent deal as a role player after two years in a 2nd round deal, something he might not have done if he was taken down and brow beaten as an underperforming lottery pick? There are two sides here to the player and another side to the team who would have drafted McAdoo. Guessing they would not have been to happy and most would just blame them on drafting potential over a more proven product.

So, in the short term, maybe he would benefit quite a bit from striking while the iron is hot, it is not as risky as being overanalyzed or falling short of expectations in college, not to mention the possibility of getting hurt. In the long term, it could possibly be beneficial. You have two cases that point to the good and bad of the situation, sure there are more. There are also Bradon Roy’s, who thought about going to the NBA right out of HS only to really blossom in college over four years. On the flip side, Tiny Gallon, who is excelling in the D-League, but may have had a more direct route had he stayed in school longer. Definitely two sides to the equation and while I get what you are saying from the side of the player, also think Jerry West and the executives/owners who would rather get more initial return on their investment, have a fairly valid counter as well. 

[Ghost01Participant]

 Explain to me how he becomes a better player by staying? His overall game has improved marginally, but he has become a lesser and lesser NBA prospect. If he got picked say, 8th in the 2012 draft, the teams would know they are picking a 19 year old prospect who is going to need some time to grow. They know that he isn’t ready to be an NBA star, or even a starter, but if he can start contributing, hopefully your coaching and your organization will nurture him. Now, he is going to be a 2nd round pick at either 21 or 22, and will have about a 15-20% chance of even making the team. Once he misses the team, he will either toil in the D league, or go overseas. He has been exposed.

You can talk about the mental aspect of it all you want with "expectation", but good players and smart players handle expectations. If McAdoo busted in the NBA, it would have more to do with his talent then his "expectations". Also, the point of coming back is to improve their stock. Aaron Gordon isn’t going to return to Arizona so "In two years I can get drafted in the 2nd round and have no expectations" he is going back to try to actually improve his draft stock.

Let’s look at the lottery since the one and done rule has been in place. Let me look at all the guys who flirted with going pro but ultimately chose to come back to school:

2013: None

2012: Harrison Barnes – picked 7th, was projected top 5 in 2011

2011: None

2010: Ed Davis – picked 13th, was projected top 5 in 2009

2009: Blake Griffin – mentioned above

2008: None

2007: None

So out of 3 guys, one of which made a decision where his improvement as a sophomore legitimately improved his NBA trajectory.

Now obviously you can look at guys like Steph Curry and Joakim Noah and say they improved their stock, but those guys, like most of the upper classmen picked in the lottery, were not considered high picks the previous year at all, so the choice to stay was more universal than unexpected. 

The bottom line is this: It is fine to like the "idea" of players coming back to school to work on their games. But the evidence of it improving their NBA draft stock, or improve their careers long term isn’t there. You get elite coaching at the NBA level, this idea that their are all these basketball skills that only these self-promoting college coaches can provide is just BS. If you are good enough to play in the NBA, go for it.

Aaron Gordon is an NBA player. If he is going to be good, he can improve at the NBA level. Right now, I’m not sure the Harrison twins are real NBA contributers. If they stay it is to push themselves into that conversation, vs staying just to try to improve draft stock that is already there. 

If there were cases upon cases of guys showing that college experience provides players (specifically elite ones, this talk of Parker or Embiid coming back to school is unbelievable) with better tools going forward, fine. But most of the time, it hurts their draft stock and ultimately pushes them to the 2nd round and out of the league. Look at the guys at the top of the NBA. Most of them are either straight out of high school or one and done. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ghost01Participant]

 Explain to me how he becomes a better player by staying? His overall game has improved marginally, but he has become a lesser and lesser NBA prospect. If he got picked say, 8th in the 2012 draft, the teams would know they are picking a 19 year old prospect who is going to need some time to grow. They know that he isn’t ready to be an NBA star, or even a starter, but if he can start contributing, hopefully your coaching and your organization will nurture him. Now, he is going to be a 2nd round pick at either 21 or 22, and will have about a 15-20% chance of even making the team. Once he misses the team, he will either toil in the D league, or go overseas. He has been exposed.

You can talk about the mental aspect of it all you want with "expectation", but good players and smart players handle expectations. If McAdoo busted in the NBA, it would have more to do with his talent then his "expectations". Also, the point of coming back is to improve their stock. Aaron Gordon isn’t going to return to Arizona so "In two years I can get drafted in the 2nd round and have no expectations" he is going back to try to actually improve his draft stock.

Let’s look at the lottery since the one and done rule has been in place. Let me look at all the guys who flirted with going pro but ultimately chose to come back to school:

2013: None

2012: Harrison Barnes – picked 7th, was projected top 5 in 2011

2011: None

2010: Ed Davis – picked 13th, was projected top 5 in 2009

2009: Blake Griffin – mentioned above

2008: None

2007: None

So out of 3 guys, one of which made a decision where his improvement as a sophomore legitimately improved his NBA trajectory.

Now obviously you can look at guys like Steph Curry and Joakim Noah and say they improved their stock, but those guys, like most of the upper classmen picked in the lottery, were not considered high picks the previous year at all, so the choice to stay was more universal than unexpected. 

The bottom line is this: It is fine to like the "idea" of players coming back to school to work on their games. But the evidence of it improving their NBA draft stock, or improve their careers long term isn’t there. You get elite coaching at the NBA level, this idea that their are all these basketball skills that only these self-promoting college coaches can provide is just BS. If you are good enough to play in the NBA, go for it.

Aaron Gordon is an NBA player. If he is going to be good, he can improve at the NBA level. Right now, I’m not sure the Harrison twins are real NBA contributers. If they stay it is to push themselves into that conversation, vs staying just to try to improve draft stock that is already there. 

If there were cases upon cases of guys showing that college experience provides players (specifically elite ones, this talk of Parker or Embiid coming back to school is unbelievable) with better tools going forward, fine. But most of the time, it hurts their draft stock and ultimately pushes them to the 2nd round and out of the league. Look at the guys at the top of the NBA. Most of them are either straight out of high school or one and done. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Of course the idea is to "improve your draft stock", but that is not always the complete reason for leaving. Aaron Gordon is a guy who absolutely should strike while the iron is hot, I even said going back to school is not for everybody. However, if Aaron Gordon has a rough transition, people might be grilling his decision. Does that necessarily make it wrong? No, but who is to say another year would not have helped.

Plus, it seems you missed that I was saying I agree from a players perspective. What you did not address was the teams/owners perspective. At all. You are saying a player has nothing to gain by going back to school if they are a lottery pick and more to lose. That may be true, however, it still does not mean that a player can’t get better by going back to school. Maybe contribute earlier. Maybe even end up in a better situation. I think situation can mean quite a bit. Lance Stephenson goes somewhere other than Indiana, who knows what happens? Know you are not as high on say, Hassan Whiteside. Gets drafted in the 2nd round by Sacramento. He is now playing in Tripoli. Could he not have helped himself by staying, possibly?

As for your little chart, I think there are people left out. Let me add some things:

2007:

Julian Wright: Who is saying he could not have left after his freshman year? No HS players in the draft, he had some intrigue. Is it the fact that he does not help your argument that makes you leave him off the list? He had a decent, not spectacular sophomore season. Goes lottery. Out of the league. Maybe going to school would not have helped. Maybe it would have made him more ready, or at least saved the Hornets feeling it was a good idea of drafting him 13th.

2008:

DJ Augustin: There was talk of him leaving as a freshman. Just like Trey Burke thought about leaving after his freshman year. Stayed. Improved stock. Taken 9th, Larry Brown and Michael liked him apparently. Was great for him. Not fantastic for the Bobcats/Hornets who passed over Brook Lopez. It is their fault, I suppose, but if you are saying it is a good idea for these players to enter if they are high draft picks, not that they should be drafted that high in the first place. Right? Augustin is playing alright for the Bulls. Still was taken too high. Can’t blame him for coming out early. Just do not think going back to school would have killed him, probably would have made him more NBA ready. Plus, maybe he wouldn’t have ended up in Charlotte.

2009:

James Harden: 2008 was a very one and done heavy draft. I remember Blake Griffin thinking about whether to enter. I do not recall Harden doing the same, just never recall it being completely off of the table after a stellar freshman year. He just would not have gone 3rd. Still could have gone lottery. Look at that draft and tell me otherwise, even from the time. Was not like the NBA was completely unaware of who he was and would not have been happy to get a closer look. He decided against it, needed to work on his game. Went 3rd. He did not exactly kill it his rookie season, though was a good role player on a young rising team. Had some nice success. Went to the Finals. Killing it on Houston. He may have been doing just as well if he had entered the draft. Did going back to school hurt him much?

2010:

Greg Monroe: I thought Greg Monroe could have been a top pick if he came out after his freshman year. At least would have had serious lottery consideration. He at least had a chance of going higher than he did in 2010. Still, going back did not kill him. He was quite a bit more ready to contribute had he gone the year before.

Paul George: Do not remember his being discussed as much as Monroe (who was, seriously discussed and left off your list), but NBADraft.net had him in the top 10. A lot of people complaining he had proven nothing to get that high. His sophomore year was lackluster. Still guessing he could have tested the draft waters and would have gone much lower, but probably a first rounder. He waits, goes to Indiana, not too shabby.

2011:

Guess there was no real talk of either Derrick Williams or Alec Burks being "one and dones". Still, while they both were high draft picks and must be pretty happy financially, neither has put themselves in great position to contribute in their first two seasons. They both had really nice sophomore seasons and were drafted much higher than they would have been, even after having nice freshman seasons as well. Nonetheless, while their stock could have fallen significantly, might they not have been more ready to contribute if they had stayed in school? Burks is coming into his own a bit, neither are looking like they are getting a huge 2nd contract. Going back to school may have helped, it at least is a possibility, is it not?

2012: 

Jeremy Lamb: No Lamb one and done talk after being 2nd banana on a title team? With all of those potential "one and done" guys going back to school? He could have gotten some looks, I am guessing. Had a good sophomore year on a disappointing team, goes lottery. You saw how ready he was to contribute. Ended up not being in a bad situation, but would it have been better for him to go lower and develop on a NBA bench?

2013:

Cody Zeller: No serious talk about him entering in 2012? At all? He was seen as a potential lottery pick after putting Indiana back on the map. Had played a great game in giving Kentucky one of their 2 losses on the year. Goes back to school. Goes higher than he would have. Still having a hard time in the NBA as a rookie. Yet, this is all Charlotte’s fault, of course. Rather than maybe the fact that players want to leave school before they are really ready to contribute at a NBA level.

Trey Burke: Absolutely thought about entering. Even put his name in. Would have likely been a 2nd round pick. 1st team All-American, 9th pick in the draft. Must have forgot about that.

You see something in common here, though. With all of these guys. Did any of them help their team win, besides maybe James Harden? Were any of them great rookies? I think you could say a couple of them were overvalued, though some of them weren’t at all. None were really hurt by going back for another season. At least a few of them seriously thought about leaving after year 1.

This is what Jerry West is talking about when he talks about being "branded". It probably would have been improbable for a lot of these players to improve their stock after another year in college. Not impossible, though. Plus they would all be much more ready to contribute right away. For all of the cases you have of guys not getting better in college or hurting their stock, their are tons of players who do just that. Many of these players are much more ready to contribute in the NBA right away.

The long term prospects of these high school players and one-and-done guys are not bad at all. It is the short term that can really suck for teams that draft them. You can say this is all in building a team, however it tends to be far different in terms of the NBA Jerry West was part of in the 1980’s. Of course the league has changed, times have changed and guranteed contracts meant one was not afraid to spend their money on potential. That still does not mean that in certain cases, going back to school is a bad thing.

Said it was a case by case basis. What is good for Aaron Gordon may not have been good for Derrick Williams, who was not as highly touted as a freshman, but had a pretty nice freshman season. I think Derrick Williams made the right case to come back for his sophomore season and to enter after that season. He still has yet to find a way. Guess I blame the system more than the player, yet one has to see Jerry West is coming from a place that at least questions going back to school always being a bad thing.

Used to feel the same way you did and I do think that if you are going by long term success, the age limit holds little water. However, in short terms, I think it helped a majority of teams and probably atleast helped some kids who were flat out not ready. I kind of do not get why the NBA is chastized from trying to keep scouts out of HS gyms. Plus, college is not the only way to go about securing your draft prospects, but is it really that bad? It is college! You are probably out of the house, you have got a lot of friends your age nearby. You are an athlete, so that comes with accomodation. I am even cool with athletes getting paid, though logistically think their are issues.

Was just trying to provide a different point of view. Going back to school is not always the solution, neither is not going back to school. It is a case by case basis. What I am starting to see is the benefits of doing so in creating this immediate "brand", at least by NBA standards. Yes, we all know who the top draft picks are and we have had a lot of great players have success as "prep to pros" and "one and dones". Though, I think on a whole, it has taken them quite a bit of time to get there teams to win. Usually at least a couple seasons. 

Times have changed since Magic and Bird, but those guys came into the league able to lead championship teams. The last guy to do so that soon? Tim Duncan. Yes, he came into an amazing situation, but he waited 4 years. He missed going to either Golden State or Denver in ’95, than going to Philly in ’96. He was a very special case, obviously, one can argue that until LeBron James there was not a player like him. What Timmy brought as someone who entered after his senior season was a guy who would have made whatever team he went to a likely play-off team and maybe even title contender (am talking about if he had not gone to San Antonio, as that was obviously the case with his teaming with David Robinson). 

LeBron had the best rookie season of a "prep-to-pros" NBA player, bar none. He improved Cleveland’s record by 18 games. However, they didn’t make the play-offs. Kevin Durant’s team was the worst in the league for two seasons. Now, this of course is completely hypothetical and just not even something we think about anymore, but imagine if they had went to or stayed in college?

A huge risk for both of them, but were they not kind of "can’t miss" guys anyway? At worst, Kevin Durant was going to be in Big Dog Robinson territory, and Big Dog was the first pick in the 1994 Draft. Imagine how much better they would have been right away? Maybe they would not have been as good as they were by taking their lumps as rookies, scoring 20 ppg on subpar FG shooting. Yet, would it have killed either of them? Would it maybe not have even helped their legacy, as being guys able to lead a play-off team right off the bat.

Yes, those guys are different cases than James Michael McAdoo. Am guessing Joel Embiid would be as well. Kind of agree that while he could get picked apart or get hurt, he is looking like the real deal. So, if you are the real deal and not quite ready to play in the pros, is it a horrible idea to try and spend time getting ready? People will say yes, he is doing it for free or costing himself a year of NBA money. However, could this maybe help build his brand and make him immediately better. Maybe even help him be more proven around the time that 2nd contract were to come up? This could be one reason he at least thinks about coming back, along with the success of big men in the past who did so.

The "tools" thing I think does not necessarily come from going to college. You may be able to learn things like that in the NBA and probably would learn that in the pros. However, physical and emotional maturity comes with age and college still seems to be the #1 platform of showcasing progress in these attributes. If you are telling me it is good for guys to strike while the iron is hot, in this system, I agree. If you are telling me that bypassing college for someone who is clearly not NBA ready is always the way to go, not with you on that. From the player perspective you have a point.

From the perspective of guys drafting these players, they probably are fine with these fringe lottery picks going back to school and seeing what they do with their physical growth, much less the growth it brings for them as a basketball player. Your argument takes the 2nd part out of the equation and does not really address it. Plus had you further explaining how leaving early benefits the player in where they are drafted, which was something I agree with, though not necessarily coming completely without cost to them down the road when it comes to a 2nd contract if they are clearly not ready to be in the NBA. You can say this is all on the player himself and the strong will survive, just think you have not really gone over EVERY case as much as a few. Because their are points for and against both sides written all over every draft since early entries have become prevalent.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Of course the idea is to "improve your draft stock", but that is not always the complete reason for leaving. Aaron Gordon is a guy who absolutely should strike while the iron is hot, I even said going back to school is not for everybody. However, if Aaron Gordon has a rough transition, people might be grilling his decision. Does that necessarily make it wrong? No, but who is to say another year would not have helped.

Plus, it seems you missed that I was saying I agree from a players perspective. What you did not address was the teams/owners perspective. At all. You are saying a player has nothing to gain by going back to school if they are a lottery pick and more to lose. That may be true, however, it still does not mean that a player can’t get better by going back to school. Maybe contribute earlier. Maybe even end up in a better situation. I think situation can mean quite a bit. Lance Stephenson goes somewhere other than Indiana, who knows what happens? Know you are not as high on say, Hassan Whiteside. Gets drafted in the 2nd round by Sacramento. He is now playing in Tripoli. Could he not have helped himself by staying, possibly?

As for your little chart, I think there are people left out. Let me add some things:

2007:

Julian Wright: Who is saying he could not have left after his freshman year? No HS players in the draft, he had some intrigue. Is it the fact that he does not help your argument that makes you leave him off the list? He had a decent, not spectacular sophomore season. Goes lottery. Out of the league. Maybe going to school would not have helped. Maybe it would have made him more ready, or at least saved the Hornets feeling it was a good idea of drafting him 13th.

2008:

DJ Augustin: There was talk of him leaving as a freshman. Just like Trey Burke thought about leaving after his freshman year. Stayed. Improved stock. Taken 9th, Larry Brown and Michael liked him apparently. Was great for him. Not fantastic for the Bobcats/Hornets who passed over Brook Lopez. It is their fault, I suppose, but if you are saying it is a good idea for these players to enter if they are high draft picks, not that they should be drafted that high in the first place. Right? Augustin is playing alright for the Bulls. Still was taken too high. Can’t blame him for coming out early. Just do not think going back to school would have killed him, probably would have made him more NBA ready. Plus, maybe he wouldn’t have ended up in Charlotte.

2009:

James Harden: 2008 was a very one and done heavy draft. I remember Blake Griffin thinking about whether to enter. I do not recall Harden doing the same, just never recall it being completely off of the table after a stellar freshman year. He just would not have gone 3rd. Still could have gone lottery. Look at that draft and tell me otherwise, even from the time. Was not like the NBA was completely unaware of who he was and would not have been happy to get a closer look. He decided against it, needed to work on his game. Went 3rd. He did not exactly kill it his rookie season, though was a good role player on a young rising team. Had some nice success. Went to the Finals. Killing it on Houston. He may have been doing just as well if he had entered the draft. Did going back to school hurt him much?

2010:

Greg Monroe: I thought Greg Monroe could have been a top pick if he came out after his freshman year. At least would have had serious lottery consideration. He at least had a chance of going higher than he did in 2010. Still, going back did not kill him. He was quite a bit more ready to contribute had he gone the year before.

Paul George: Do not remember his being discussed as much as Monroe (who was, seriously discussed and left off your list), but NBADraft.net had him in the top 10. A lot of people complaining he had proven nothing to get that high. His sophomore year was lackluster. Still guessing he could have tested the draft waters and would have gone much lower, but probably a first rounder. He waits, goes to Indiana, not too shabby.

2011:

Guess there was no real talk of either Derrick Williams or Alec Burks being "one and dones". Still, while they both were high draft picks and must be pretty happy financially, neither has put themselves in great position to contribute in their first two seasons. They both had really nice sophomore seasons and were drafted much higher than they would have been, even after having nice freshman seasons as well. Nonetheless, while their stock could have fallen significantly, might they not have been more ready to contribute if they had stayed in school? Burks is coming into his own a bit, neither are looking like they are getting a huge 2nd contract. Going back to school may have helped, it at least is a possibility, is it not?

2012: 

Jeremy Lamb: No Lamb one and done talk after being 2nd banana on a title team? With all of those potential "one and done" guys going back to school? He could have gotten some looks, I am guessing. Had a good sophomore year on a disappointing team, goes lottery. You saw how ready he was to contribute. Ended up not being in a bad situation, but would it have been better for him to go lower and develop on a NBA bench?

2013:

Cody Zeller: No serious talk about him entering in 2012? At all? He was seen as a potential lottery pick after putting Indiana back on the map. Had played a great game in giving Kentucky one of their 2 losses on the year. Goes back to school. Goes higher than he would have. Still having a hard time in the NBA as a rookie. Yet, this is all Charlotte’s fault, of course. Rather than maybe the fact that players want to leave school before they are really ready to contribute at a NBA level.

Trey Burke: Absolutely thought about entering. Even put his name in. Would have likely been a 2nd round pick. 1st team All-American, 9th pick in the draft. Must have forgot about that.

You see something in common here, though. With all of these guys. Did any of them help their team win, besides maybe James Harden? Were any of them great rookies? I think you could say a couple of them were overvalued, though some of them weren’t at all. None were really hurt by going back for another season. At least a few of them seriously thought about leaving after year 1.

This is what Jerry West is talking about when he talks about being "branded". It probably would have been improbable for a lot of these players to improve their stock after another year in college. Not impossible, though. Plus they would all be much more ready to contribute right away. For all of the cases you have of guys not getting better in college or hurting their stock, their are tons of players who do just that. Many of these players are much more ready to contribute in the NBA right away.

The long term prospects of these high school players and one-and-done guys are not bad at all. It is the short term that can really suck for teams that draft them. You can say this is all in building a team, however it tends to be far different in terms of the NBA Jerry West was part of in the 1980’s. Of course the league has changed, times have changed and guranteed contracts meant one was not afraid to spend their money on potential. That still does not mean that in certain cases, going back to school is a bad thing.

Said it was a case by case basis. What is good for Aaron Gordon may not have been good for Derrick Williams, who was not as highly touted as a freshman, but had a pretty nice freshman season. I think Derrick Williams made the right case to come back for his sophomore season and to enter after that season. He still has yet to find a way. Guess I blame the system more than the player, yet one has to see Jerry West is coming from a place that at least questions going back to school always being a bad thing.

Used to feel the same way you did and I do think that if you are going by long term success, the age limit holds little water. However, in short terms, I think it helped a majority of teams and probably atleast helped some kids who were flat out not ready. I kind of do not get why the NBA is chastized from trying to keep scouts out of HS gyms. Plus, college is not the only way to go about securing your draft prospects, but is it really that bad? It is college! You are probably out of the house, you have got a lot of friends your age nearby. You are an athlete, so that comes with accomodation. I am even cool with athletes getting paid, though logistically think their are issues.

Was just trying to provide a different point of view. Going back to school is not always the solution, neither is not going back to school. It is a case by case basis. What I am starting to see is the benefits of doing so in creating this immediate "brand", at least by NBA standards. Yes, we all know who the top draft picks are and we have had a lot of great players have success as "prep to pros" and "one and dones". Though, I think on a whole, it has taken them quite a bit of time to get there teams to win. Usually at least a couple seasons. 

Times have changed since Magic and Bird, but those guys came into the league able to lead championship teams. The last guy to do so that soon? Tim Duncan. Yes, he came into an amazing situation, but he waited 4 years. He missed going to either Golden State or Denver in ’95, than going to Philly in ’96. He was a very special case, obviously, one can argue that until LeBron James there was not a player like him. What Timmy brought as someone who entered after his senior season was a guy who would have made whatever team he went to a likely play-off team and maybe even title contender (am talking about if he had not gone to San Antonio, as that was obviously the case with his teaming with David Robinson). 

LeBron had the best rookie season of a "prep-to-pros" NBA player, bar none. He improved Cleveland’s record by 18 games. However, they didn’t make the play-offs. Kevin Durant’s team was the worst in the league for two seasons. Now, this of course is completely hypothetical and just not even something we think about anymore, but imagine if they had went to or stayed in college?

A huge risk for both of them, but were they not kind of "can’t miss" guys anyway? At worst, Kevin Durant was going to be in Big Dog Robinson territory, and Big Dog was the first pick in the 1994 Draft. Imagine how much better they would have been right away? Maybe they would not have been as good as they were by taking their lumps as rookies, scoring 20 ppg on subpar FG shooting. Yet, would it have killed either of them? Would it maybe not have even helped their legacy, as being guys able to lead a play-off team right off the bat.

Yes, those guys are different cases than James Michael McAdoo. Am guessing Joel Embiid would be as well. Kind of agree that while he could get picked apart or get hurt, he is looking like the real deal. So, if you are the real deal and not quite ready to play in the pros, is it a horrible idea to try and spend time getting ready? People will say yes, he is doing it for free or costing himself a year of NBA money. However, could this maybe help build his brand and make him immediately better. Maybe even help him be more proven around the time that 2nd contract were to come up? This could be one reason he at least thinks about coming back, along with the success of big men in the past who did so.

The "tools" thing I think does not necessarily come from going to college. You may be able to learn things like that in the NBA and probably would learn that in the pros. However, physical and emotional maturity comes with age and college still seems to be the #1 platform of showcasing progress in these attributes. If you are telling me it is good for guys to strike while the iron is hot, in this system, I agree. If you are telling me that bypassing college for someone who is clearly not NBA ready is always the way to go, not with you on that. From the player perspective you have a point.

From the perspective of guys drafting these players, they probably are fine with these fringe lottery picks going back to school and seeing what they do with their physical growth, much less the growth it brings for them as a basketball player. Your argument takes the 2nd part out of the equation and does not really address it. Plus had you further explaining how leaving early benefits the player in where they are drafted, which was something I agree with, though not necessarily coming completely without cost to them down the road when it comes to a 2nd contract if they are clearly not ready to be in the NBA. You can say this is all on the player himself and the strong will survive, just think you have not really gone over EVERY case as much as a few. Because their are points for and against both sides written all over every draft since early entries have become prevalent.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

It is the players perspective and I do support them along that angle. From the perspective of a potential draftee, if your stock is high, it is really hard and risky to turn down the money. So, I agree that it is not always the right move to go back to school. Still, there is another perspective where going back to school is incredibly helpful and that is from the perspective of GM’s and teams.

Had not seen this brought up here, but Jerry West just was on a radio show and referred to the 2014 draft class as being "poor". I disagree with that in terms of long term talent, however I think he has an incredibly valid point in immediate impact, in which case a majority of draft classes struggle in terms of a historical NBA perspective. Hear West out when he talks about guys not being "branded":

“And everyone is talking about an incredible draft class this year, I think it’s just the opposite, I think it’s a poor one myself. There are going to be prospects there. But these franchises have really struggled. At one time you could get a branded name, these kids are not branded today. They’re not branded.

“And by that I mean kids who have played in school for three or four years and comes out and people know who he is. He’s tutored, he’s more mature, more experienced. Those kinds of players come in and make an impact right away. But if you look at some of these kids, it takes about three years for them to get going. And for a team that’s really struggling, you’re selling your fans that this player’s going to make us better. Most of the time it does not happen today.”

Now, you think to yourself that by "branded", he is talking about them not having hype or a marketable name. That is NOT what he is talking about, I am fairly certain Jerry West is familiar with social media and what that has done. The interview came from ESPN radio and I am guessing he sees them talk about these young prospects. What he means is their readiness to contribute to a winning environment and help their teams compete right away. Not every rookie is able to do this, but the ones who are tend to have some experience and seasoning before entering the league.

That is where the draft has become more difficult now than it used to be in some ways. You are afraid to draft on a proven body of work and need to at least factor upside much more into the discussion. If you look at the past, of course there were cases where players proved to be much better than where they were chosen. At the very least, most of them had a track record and a proven body of work, plus you had many more players who were ready to contribute at a higher level than they are right now.

I understand the perceived look of the NCAA is a place hoarding athletes and making money off of them with little to give back. The "amateurism" tag has become a front and a lot of what goes on is unfair. Also, from a players perspective, believe the age limit is unfair. The track record of "prep to pros" and "one-and-dones" have produced a lot of long term successes. The thing this hurts is the short term. Guys are making a lot of money as the first few picks and a vast majority are not helping these teams get to winning situations in those seasons. So, can you see why NBA teams and personnel may want an age limit? 

As far as James Michael McAdoo is concerned, from his perspective, it seems like he more than likely should have entered the draft after his freshman season. His stock has slipped. Nonetheless, it could be better for his long term success that he didn’t. He may have struggled and been out of the league. Undoubtedly, he would have had a very difficult time with living up to the expectations along with his draft choice. We have seen that he has had a difficult enough time in college, the NBA would have been a very harsh reality.

Even though his stock has slipped, there was an upside to his decision that goes along with going back to school not always being a bad choice. One thing is that he is much more likely NOT to have huge expectations if he were to enter this season. He is also much more ready to contribute, in whatever way he could, immediately than he was after his freshman season. Plus, if he does end up staying, he does have a chance to maybe redeem his stock through working on his faults. I know that his first three years have many people writing him off, just stranger things have happened than a player finally putting things together during his senior season.

It is definitely a case by case basis and I do not think it is always the best decision to go back to school for some of these kids. Maybe you are right that McAdoo ended up losing out on millions. However, maybe he ends up being a better player and having longer sustained success by staying in college. Maybe he ends up signing a decent deal as a role player after two years in a 2nd round deal, something he might not have done if he was taken down and brow beaten as an underperforming lottery pick? There are two sides here to the player and another side to the team who would have drafted McAdoo. Guessing they would not have been to happy and most would just blame them on drafting potential over a more proven product.

So, in the short term, maybe he would benefit quite a bit from striking while the iron is hot, it is not as risky as being overanalyzed or falling short of expectations in college, not to mention the possibility of getting hurt. In the long term, it could possibly be beneficial. You have two cases that point to the good and bad of the situation, sure there are more. There are also Bradon Roy’s, who thought about going to the NBA right out of HS only to really blossom in college over four years. On the flip side, Tiny Gallon, who is excelling in the D-League, but may have had a more direct route had he stayed in school longer. Definitely two sides to the equation and while I get what you are saying from the side of the player, also think Jerry West and the executives/owners who would rather get more initial return on their investment, have a fairly valid counter as well. 

[NickWayne87Participant]

 Is you’re right and i’m glad someone said it.  Everyone was praising Marcus Smart for coming back and I knew at the time it was a mistake.  When you’re at the top already you have no where else to go but down.  If a player is going to get better he’s going to get better in the NBA where he’ll play more games and focus all of his attention on basketball while making a living doing it.

[NickWayne87Participant]

 Is you’re right and i’m glad someone said it.  Everyone was praising Marcus Smart for coming back and I knew at the time it was a mistake.  When you’re at the top already you have no where else to go but down.  If a player is going to get better he’s going to get better in the NBA where he’ll play more games and focus all of his attention on basketball while making a living doing it.

[llperez]

there is no black and white decision for this, it is different for each individual. We have seen guys come out completely not ready but find their way(Gerald Wallace is a perfect example of this). Weve seen guys who stayed 4 years and it probably allowed them to have a long career. Tayshaun prince is a perfect example. He was a mc’donalds all-American out of highschool but absolutely needed all 4 of those years to be nba ready. Maybe he leaves early and gets buried on someone’s bench for a few seasons and is out the league quicker then tyler Honeycutt.

[llperez]

there is no black and white decision for this, it is different for each individual. We have seen guys come out completely not ready but find their way(Gerald Wallace is a perfect example of this). Weve seen guys who stayed 4 years and it probably allowed them to have a long career. Tayshaun prince is a perfect example. He was a mc’donalds all-American out of highschool but absolutely needed all 4 of those years to be nba ready. Maybe he leaves early and gets buried on someone’s bench for a few seasons and is out the league quicker then tyler Honeycutt.

[JoeWolf1]

But seriously. Marcus Smart could have gone 2nd in a weak draft, but now he’s probably going to go 5-7 in a strong draft. It’s a fucking number, he’s still going to go to a lottery team where he is going to play right away, he’s still going to get a lotto scale contract. 

The guy has to put in the work, and in the long run, Smart did get better. He’s not looking at a catastrophic slide. He’s not now out of the 1st round and fighting to get a 2nd round contract. He’s fine. After his rookie contract is up, he’s going to make real money, and it won’t matter if he was the 2nd pick or the 6th pick. 

Daniel Orton took the money and ran, and Terrance Jones stayed, won an NCAA championship and improved his game. There is no right or wrong for everyone. Marquis Teauge may be out of the league soon, while people throttled Kyle Singler for coming back, and he’s looking like a guy who’ll play 10 years in the league as a backup.

There’s plenty of guys inbetween. Brandan Wright looked like a guy who really looked like he made the wrong choice, but he pulled it off and will have a long career, I think PJIII will do the same thing, and in the long run it’s not gonna matter than Wright was top 10 or PJIII was late 20’s…it’s just making it or not.

Too much of this arguement is always made up about a guy "getting his” or "getting paid" the best anyone can do is weigh the options, and work hard. A lot of guys who came back and failed, didn’t put in the work, and a guy like Lance who left and put in work in the pro’s succeeded, while a guy like Selby left and didn’t put in the work and failed.

In the grand scheme of things, making 3 or 4 million dollars isn’t enough for a guy to live his life off of, especially if he buys 150,000 cars, or a million dollar house. It’s not bad, but seriously, if a kid comes out at 20, makes 6,000,000 in salary….pays taxes on that, buys a house and a car that a pro athlete would buy, hooks up his friends, and lives until he’s 80…sometimes staying in school doesn’t look all that bad. Maybe he would have dropped to a 2nd round pick, but maybe he would have picked up the skills to stick in the league 10 years and made a career in the NBA. It’s not all instant gratification when it comes to making life decisions. It’s easy for us to say "get paid" or "screw school", but how many guys are flat broke with no other career skill except being 6’8” or being the best point guard in their high school class?

It really is case by case, because everyone is different. That is why I don’t think you can generalize "It’s always dumb to come back" or " it’s always dumb to leave."

 

[JoeWolf1]

But seriously. Marcus Smart could have gone 2nd in a weak draft, but now he’s probably going to go 5-7 in a strong draft. It’s a fucking number, he’s still going to go to a lottery team where he is going to play right away, he’s still going to get a lotto scale contract. 

The guy has to put in the work, and in the long run, Smart did get better. He’s not looking at a catastrophic slide. He’s not now out of the 1st round and fighting to get a 2nd round contract. He’s fine. After his rookie contract is up, he’s going to make real money, and it won’t matter if he was the 2nd pick or the 6th pick. 

Daniel Orton took the money and ran, and Terrance Jones stayed, won an NCAA championship and improved his game. There is no right or wrong for everyone. Marquis Teauge may be out of the league soon, while people throttled Kyle Singler for coming back, and he’s looking like a guy who’ll play 10 years in the league as a backup.

There’s plenty of guys inbetween. Brandan Wright looked like a guy who really looked like he made the wrong choice, but he pulled it off and will have a long career, I think PJIII will do the same thing, and in the long run it’s not gonna matter than Wright was top 10 or PJIII was late 20’s…it’s just making it or not.

Too much of this arguement is always made up about a guy "getting his” or "getting paid" the best anyone can do is weigh the options, and work hard. A lot of guys who came back and failed, didn’t put in the work, and a guy like Lance who left and put in work in the pro’s succeeded, while a guy like Selby left and didn’t put in the work and failed.

In the grand scheme of things, making 3 or 4 million dollars isn’t enough for a guy to live his life off of, especially if he buys 150,000 cars, or a million dollar house. It’s not bad, but seriously, if a kid comes out at 20, makes 6,000,000 in salary….pays taxes on that, buys a house and a car that a pro athlete would buy, hooks up his friends, and lives until he’s 80…sometimes staying in school doesn’t look all that bad. Maybe he would have dropped to a 2nd round pick, but maybe he would have picked up the skills to stick in the league 10 years and made a career in the NBA. It’s not all instant gratification when it comes to making life decisions. It’s easy for us to say "get paid" or "screw school", but how many guys are flat broke with no other career skill except being 6’8” or being the best point guard in their high school class?

It really is case by case, because everyone is different. That is why I don’t think you can generalize "It’s always dumb to come back" or " it’s always dumb to leave."

 

[imAboutDatActionParticipant]

 i agree OP.

you have to take the chance while its avaliable. coming back, you risk injuries and having your game being more picked apart. more often than not, your draft stock take a hits.

worst case scenario is that you bust and have a few millions in your bank account. 

lets say you come out after 1 year in college and out the league after 3 years ( usually the length of your 1st contract) .  you’re now 22-23 years old with a few millions in your bank. you basically got a head start in life.not to mention actually living out your dream for a few years already,where many of us cant say.

theres a few ways you can play the rest of your life out :

1. go back to school and finish up.

2. with your basketball resume, you can look into coaching in the HS ranks( at a good school getting paid well,shouldnt be too hard with your resume) or get an assistant HC job in the colege ranks, if you made good connects and werent an asshole that isnt that hard ( adam morrison is an assistant at Gonzaga)
 

3. go play overseas.paychecks are there are pretty good depending where you land (tax free,3 figure paychecks with housing paid for)

[imAboutDatActionParticipant]

 i agree OP.

you have to take the chance while its avaliable. coming back, you risk injuries and having your game being more picked apart. more often than not, your draft stock take a hits.

worst case scenario is that you bust and have a few millions in your bank account. 

lets say you come out after 1 year in college and out the league after 3 years ( usually the length of your 1st contract) .  you’re now 22-23 years old with a few millions in your bank. you basically got a head start in life.not to mention actually living out your dream for a few years already,where many of us cant say.

theres a few ways you can play the rest of your life out :

1. go back to school and finish up.

2. with your basketball resume, you can look into coaching in the HS ranks( at a good school getting paid well,shouldnt be too hard with your resume) or get an assistant HC job in the colege ranks, if you made good connects and werent an asshole that isnt that hard ( adam morrison is an assistant at Gonzaga)
 

3. go play overseas.paychecks are there are pretty good depending where you land (tax free,3 figure paychecks with housing paid for)

[Author]

Posts