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SubZero 15 years, 8 months ago.
dolla130Kia Race to the MVP: This debate remains the same
Posted Oct 29 2010 10:59AM – Updated Oct 29 2010 2:21PM
When Monta Ellis wins the NBA’s Most Valuable Player next spring, he will become the first player in the Golden State/San Francisco era of franchise history to win it. He’d also be just the second Warrior to do so, 51 years after Wilt Chamberlain claimed his first of four in 1959-60 when the team was based in Philadelphia.
Of course, it’s not as if Ellis is an MVP shoo-in, not with Golden State teammate Stephen Curry siphoning off some votes with his own stellar work in the backcourt.
Let’s not overlook the young guy in Oklahoma City, either: Russell Westbrook has been blossoming before our eyes so far this season, and his efficiency rating (36.0) dwarfs what LeBron James put up in winning the past two MVPs (32.4 in 2009-10, 30.9 the season before).
Then there is Pau Gasol, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez and Kevin Martin, all posting consistently big nights this season, and those double-double machines, Marcus Camby and Luis Scola …
Huh? Oh. Sorry. The committee here at MVP Race headquarters got unduly swayed by the exceedingly small number of performances logged in the first three days of this 2010-11 regular season. Compared to the mountain of evidence that will be amassed over the next 6 ½ months, the molehill of stats compiled from Tuesday through Thursday isn’t enough to work with to predict any credible outcomes for how the MVP balloting will shake out.
Three days into this season, the two biggest questions about The Race remain unchanged from what they were a week ago, or a week before that:
1. Will the MVP award truly be up for grabs this season, after the two-year stranglehold James has had on it?
2. Is Kevin Durant the fellow to snag it — if indeed it is available to be snagged?
The first question is driven, of course, by James’ switch as a free agent from Cleveland, where he was the do-it-all superstar, to Miami, where he, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can share in the franchise-anchoring.
For some who like their MVPs to cram score sheets with the gaudiest stats possible, sharing the load and the ball could cut into James’ impressive numbers. In fact, through two games, it already had: He’s averaging 23.5 ppg, 5.0 aog and 5.0 rpg while shooting 45.5 percent, compared to 29.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 8.6 apg and 50.3 FG pct in 2009-10.
Others tend to vote for the fellows who shoulder the biggest loads for their teams, so the presence of two pedigreed sidekicks could hurt James’ candidacy too. Frankly, that was the committee’s take in August, less than a month after the native of Akron, Ohio, spurned his Cavaliers in favor of buddy-ball down in south Florida. Somewhat symbolically, as a way to applaud fellows such as Durant, Dwight Howard and Dirk Nowitzki for staying put without any known future Hall of Famers at their sides, it dropped James to No. 5 in a recreational offseason Race. Savvy readers will see below that that has since been revised.
Three things will continue to keep James in, and perhaps even dominating, any MVP discussion:
First, he is the best overall player in the league, the most potent combination of speed, size, strength, quickness and skill. Second, based on his 31 points in the Heat’s opener at Boston (and the way he got them), there figures to be plenty of nights when we do see the Cleveland version of LeBron. And third, Miami is still in its crawling-to-walking stage, not nearly in full stride for how it will play and how effective James might become.
It is quite likely that James’ game won’t change with star support as much as some expected.
"I don’t think he can be much different. I don’ think he should be," Celtics coach Doc Rivers told me. "The way I’ve always viewed the stars is, be yourself. Let the role players figure it out. You don’t want the star player to change, otherwise he’s no longer a star. With our three guys, that was the speech to them a lot: Just be yourself. I don’t need you to try to be something else. ‘Cuz we wouldn’t have wanted you for that."
So the more immutable James is in 2010-11, the more likely he’ll be to defend his two-time MVP status.
As for Durant’s MVP worthiness, let’s say answer that question with a question: You want to be the one to tell him he can’t?
So let’s get on with it, the MVP Race, Tipoff Edition:
1. Kevin Durant, Thunder (1-0)Last Week’s Rank – NA
The pros in Durant’s favor are his rapid ascent to elite status, his popularity as a team-first kind of guy and the willingness of Oklahoma City to conform around his superior skills. The con, if you can call it that, is the growing sense that other Thunder players, notably Westbrook, will lighten Durant’s load even more this season. What swung it for the committee, at least for this initial ranking, was a certain NBA.com writer’s prediction for this award. Be kind of silly to veer from that so early.2. LeBron James, Heat (1-1)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
One tricky thing working against James in his quest for a third consecutive Maurice Podoloff trophy – beyond his newly perceived arrogance from a very clumsy offseason – is the history of MVP award winners. Of the seven men who won at least three, five of them already had claimed an NBA championship before they got their third MVP. The two exceptions: Moses Malone and Michael Jordan. But both those guys got rings mere weeks after wrapping up their third MVP seasons, Malone in 1983 with Philadelphia and Jordan in 1991 with Chicago. To fit that pattern, James would have to be MVP of the regular season and help Miami win the 2011 title in June.3. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (1-0)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
Mostly, the concern with Bryant is whether age, injuries or both will conspire against an MVP season. Bryant, 32, played so banged up last season that his accuracy dropped a tad, and he missed nine games completely. That didn’t cost him the MVP trophy but it might have slid him down to third place; he wound up only 10 voting points behind No. 2 Durant.4. Dwight Howard, Magic (1-0)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
If his coach continues to beat the "Dwight For MVP!" drum the way he has the past two seasons, if Orlando continues to beat good teams and shred lesser ones and if Howard shows as much improvement offensively as he hoped for during long, summer gym sessions, this spot might wind up too low for the Magic strongman.5. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs (1-0)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
Now, the committee doesn’t expect Nowitzki to shoot 84.6 percent over the full season. But his 11-of-13 performance in Wednesday’s opener against Charlotte, good for 28 points with 13 rebounds, was a reminder of how lethal Nowitzki still is and what a royal pain he remains to match up against. Now if only he can maintain the pace, and look this fresh, over the Mavs’ next 81.6. Dwyane Wade/Pau Gasol, Heat (1-1)/Lakers (1-0)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
Normally combo entries are discouraged. But there’s a similarity here that compels it. Wade either will or won’t get eclipsed in Miami by the reigning MVP and we simply don’t have enough data yet to know which it will be – especially given his lost preseason due to the hamstring injury. Gasol somehow achieved status as "best power forward in the game" without ever getting any MVP love in the past. Both these guys now are No. 1A on their own teams, yet likely Hall of Famers when it’s over. For comparison’s sake, Scottie Pippen fit that description and finished in the top 11 in MVP votes six times, never higher than third.7. Steve Nash, Suns (1-1)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
Like James, Nash, another two-time MVP, has that history cited above to overcome in The Race; unless the Suns can win a championship next June –- and few believe they can — he would become the first three-timer without a ring. As it is, some still question whether he should have won twice. Nash at least figures to score a little more than he had to last season, so that might help.8. Deron Williams, Jazz (0-2)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
Williams already is frustrated, two games into the season. That has some cynics predicting trade demands and general unrest within the Jazz. But the Jazz point guard had to know his job was going to get harder this season, what with all the roster changes. "I’m not used to playing this bad and things being this difficult," he said after the rout by Phoenix Thursday. "We’ll be all right." It says here Williams and his MVP consideration will be, as well.9. Tim Duncan , Spurs (1-0)
Last Week’s Rank – NA
OK, so it’s way early and it isn’t fair to expect Duncan, at age 34, to be a model of efficiency and production. But 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting, 12 boards, three assists, three steals and four blocks in 33 minutes is vintage stuff from The Big Fundamental. It’s nice to have him back in this conversation too, for however long it lasts. From 2001 through 2005, Duncan finished 2-1-1-2-4 in MVP balloting. But the past five seasons, starting with 2006, he was 8-4-7-11 and off the board completely last spring.10. The FieldLast Week’s Rank – NA
Let’s face it, there simply isn’t enough separation yet between possible MVP candidates for even the committee, sharp as it is, to split hairs this deep in the rankings. Portland’s Brandon Roy (22 and 24 points in back-to-back victories), Chicago’s Derrick Rose (28 points in a losing effort at OKC), New Orleans Chris Paul (17 points, 16 assists in beating Milwaukee) and even Martin, Scola, Ellis, Curry or Westbrook could play well enough, and help their teams win enough, to legitimately belong on the list. Quick note, though: Carmelo Anthony cannot simultaneously rattle his own team to its core and get serious consideration among the league’s most valuable performer. Which is why, for now, he’s just one of the field here.Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA for 25 years. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.
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I agree with the list for the most part but nash and d will should not be on it atleast not after the first 2 games
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