[WolfRisingParticipant]

 I was talking to my buddy about how the cap change affects drafting strategy. My thinking is it makes sense to draft guys who are more pro ready. That way you can get real production at a cost effective rate. It also feels dangerous to pay the rates you need to keep people who have shown any potential. What to you guys think?

[KingslayerParticipant]

We’re seeing teams spend a lot of money and resources trying to accumulate second rounds picks when they can. Why? – They can sign the 2nd rounders who impress in the summer to long term contracts with team options, and at really affordable rates. $1 million per season is so low risk now since that’s less than 1/90th of each team’s cap space. And the potential reward is very high. Check out these examples:

Nikola Jokic – 3 yrs / $4.1 mil

Jerami Grant – 3 yrs / $2.7 mil

Norman Powell – 3 yrs / $2.5 mil

Jordan Mickey – 3 yrs / $3.7 mil

Richaun Holmes – 3 yrs / $3.1 mil

Josh Richardson – 3 yrs / $2.4 mil

Each of those 2nd round picks are absolute bargains, and all these 3 year contracts have at least 1 team option, usually 2.

With the cap rising at unprecedented levels this offseason and the next, more teams are locking up their new 2016 2nd rounders. Deyonta Davis, Ivica Zubac, Cheick Diallo, Stephen Zimmerman, Ben Bentil have all been signed to 3 year deals already. 

Forward thinking teams like the Celtics, Bulls and Suns have actually given 4 year deals to Demetrius Jackson, Paul Zipser and Tyler Ulis, respectively.

These contracts have very little risk to the teams, but huge upside given how cheap they are.

I’m guessing there will be a significant re-structuring of both 1st and 2nd round salary slots in the new CBA next year. 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Problem with those 2nd round picks is the teams have no rights to the players. When their contracts up the players are Unrestricted Free Agents. If Powell has a good year he will likely be gone because Toronto has to resign Lowry, Patterson and Sullinger next year. Thats why NBA ready players and draft and stash players were so much more valueable this year.

[HitsterParticipant]

Teams can give 2nd round guys deals totally in a teams favour and NBA ready guys later in the first round become lovely assets too. Plus guys who have been stashed for over 3 years and are free of rookie scale can be brought over for a lot less than you’d pay an NBA FA.

With the cap rising the players’ union will want rookie scales to increase I’d imagine.

My own view is that no 2nd rounder should be paid more than the 30th pick unless they are 3 years removed from being drafted.

[circumlocution75Participant]

 discussion….. personally I think this will Only be a Short term issue

The NBA is it’s Own Economy or a Closed System so you can use predctive Economic models

For example, when the U.S. economy almost collapsed the Gov’t pumped a Massive injection of "Manufactured" cash into the economy

Well that Cash was not real in the sense that it was Created not Produced…… Over the next few years Inflation caught up & that is why Milk is now $5 instead of $2 or $3 & so on…… 

It was smart in a sense that it allowed the Economy to "Reset" w/o Crushing everyone at once…… we came Very close to an Economic Disaster

Well the NBA is the Opposite in a sense that it’s going to taske a couple years to do the Reverse…… Where products took 3 years to ctch up to the New "Real" Value of Money…….. in the NBA there is a Ton of Cash & product (players) Value will eventually catch up

So yes these 2nd rounders & more ready Draft picks will be a Value for the 1st 4 years but traditionally they don’t contribute that much to a good team

So when they are due for their next contract it will Adjust     —- 2 or 3 years from now Bench players will make $10 Milion Per —  & Every team will be Pinned against the Cap – it’s just going to take a few years to adjust to all the new $$$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EndlessknightParticipant]

Please stop with the pop economics. The US inflation rate has not “caught up” due to “manufactured cash”. From 2007, the start of the crisis, to 2015 the US annual inflation rate has averaged 1.8% which is extremely low. ( Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

[HitsterParticipant]

 I wonder if bench/rotational players got lucky this year as teams will obviously pay their top talent as much as they can to keep them and supporting players may see their offers decline in value if they want to be on strong teams.

Teams in rebuild will often have cap space so the 2nd tier player may have to decide between better success or better payday.

 

[Author]

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