[JonOatsParticipant]

 I was told to post my predictions for the top ten most productive careers for the crop of players expected to enter the up coming draft so everyone else can tell me how off-base I am. I enjoy hearing what everyone else has to say, so here we go. I included a player comparison in paranetheses and a short explanation of why I ranked the player higher or lower than the "experts." Keep in mind the lottery busts of the past, and recent success of second round picks and undrafted players before being overly critical. 

1. Harrison Barnes- (Paul Pierce/Glen Rice) scores in every way: spot up, off the dribble, driving, free throws. Underrated defender. Rarely forces shots but not afraid to take the big ones.

2. Jared Sullinger- (Kevin Love/Paul Milsap) more athletic than he appears. Good range for a pf (42% from 3). knows how to use his big frame. Rebounding is the skill which transitions easiest to the NBA and he knows how to do that. 

3. Kendall Marshall- (Andre Miller/Jason Kidd) there’s always a place or someone who makes the game easier for their teammates. he needs to improve his outside shot, but can’t ask for a better passer or leader on the floor. 

4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist- (Ron Artest/Shawn  Marion) a non-psychotic Ron. Can guard three or four positions. Underrated passer. Excellent rebounder for his size. If offense was more polished and consistent he’d be challenging for top spot.

5. Meyers Leonard- (Andrew Bogut/Joakim Noah) real center size but still mobile and athletic. I feel like he has the height and frame that will allow him to guard centers that A Davis and Drummond don’t have. He’s still a few years away, but ultimately will be better than either.

6. Bradley Beal- (Rodney Stuckey/Brandon Roy)  He handles and passes it well enough to play point and since the NBA doesn’t  have many real pgs anymore that’s where he could end up playing. Too streaky for the Ray Allen comparison, but a better rebounder and defender. 

7. Tyler Zeller- (Pau Gasol/Spencer Hawes) stronger than he looks, but still needs to get stronger with the ball. not intimidating on defense but effective without fouling. Good footwork on both ends. Scores in a variety of ways. Can work inside or out.

8(tie). Anthony Davis- (Serge Ibaka/Tyson Chandler) player I have lower than anyone else I’m sure. not sold on his strength to defend in the NBA. Will struggle on offense. Could be a solid starter, but not a star.

8(tie). Arnett Moultrie- (LaMarcus Aldridge/Chris Bosh) good range and first step to get by slower defenders. Better facing up but can post too. Needs to improve defense. Depends on what drafting team needs as to whether he or Davis is the better option. 

10. Thomas Robinson-(Kenyon Martin/Juwan Howard) super strong, never stops working, good face up, not afraid of contact, fast off the floor 

These comparisons are just similiar players and for the most part ceilings of what I think they could be. So no posts about how Chris Bosh is obv better than Moultrie. I just see alot of his game in Arnett. 

[FastAndFuriousParticipant]

 Smoking that GANJA!

[Bmore_DCParticipant]

 I def dont see the Meyers Leonard comparison at all…i think the site has it closer by saying Robin Lopez

[TRC1991Participant]

i think you’re drastically underappreciating the quality of center andrew bogut was in college… not only is he a very good NBA center, but he was the 1st pick in the draft and was the NCAA player of the year at Utah. Leonard is nowhere near the caliber of player Bogut was/is and the fact that you think he’ll be better than both he and Noah is shocking and insulting.

[frogmanParticipant]

He means he will be better than Davis and Drummond,. However, when healthy I think Bogut can be ranked as high as 3rd best center in the NBA.  Meyers Leonard is not close to Bogut.

[Maniac MaciejParticipant]

I love that the comparisons are two random NBA dudes that play a similar position.

I am pretty sure you are right, and every NBA GM is wrong. I feel like I should send you some money if Kendall Marshall ends up as the third best player out of this draft, or if Tyler Zeller has a better pro career than Anthony Davis. 

[JonOatsParticipant]

Kwame Brown was number one on most draft boards and Ben Wallace and Jeremy Lin went undrafted. GM’s are just like the rest of us. 

@BMore. I actually had Brook Lopez first instead of Noah. A combo of the two Lopez twins is pretty accurate I think. Not as good offensively as Brook but tougher and stronger than Robin.

@Maniac. I could list the similarities of all the players and their comparisons but I felt they were pretty obv from the descriptions. 

@Taylor. I said that was his ceiling. All the comparisons are just an idea of who they are similiar to. I worry about the literacy rate of this country since that is literally what I said in the last paragraph.

I was hoping for some other lists or player comparisons from everyone not just how dumb I am. I know my list is completely different than everyone elses. That was the point. 

[B FreeParticipant]

 I get it, take out Marshal and Zeller just make it a top 8 and we have very similar lists but on here everyone loves Davis and you will get nothing for moving him down the list.

[omphalosParticipant]

I was willing to give you some credit for thinking outside the box until you put Zeller that high and left Drummond off entirely.

Zeller is not going to be a good player in the NBA, he really struggles against players of a similar size, and Drummond will almost certainly outperform Zeller at the very least.

[JonOatsParticipant]

 Here are two lists for the drafts from 2001-2010. The first group were taken in the first ten picks and the second group was taken from 20-30. I didn’t even look thru the second round picks because I was trying to do this quickly,  but this should get the point across. I don’t know why I’d be so crazy as to doubt their ability.

01-Early picks: Kwame (#1), Eddie Griffin, Rodney White.  Late picks: Zbo, B. Haywood, G Wallace, T Parker

02-Early picks: N Tskitishvili (#5), Wagner. Late picks: K Rush, T Prince, N. Krstic, J. Salmons

 

03-Early picks: Darko (#2), Sweetney, J Hayes.   Late picks. J Howard, Barbosa, Delfino, Perkins, Diaw

 

04-Early picks: Araujo, L. Jackson, S Livinston.    Late picks: Jameer, Tony allen, K Martin, Delonte West

 

05-Early picks: Marvin Williams (#2), Ike Diogu, M Webster.  Late picks: David Lee (#30), Jarrett Jack

 

06- Early picks: A. Morrison(#3), S williams(#5), Patrick O’Bryant, Sene. Late picks: Lowry, Rondo(#21)

 

07-Early picks: Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright.    Late picks: Afflalo, T. Splitter, Aaron Brooks, Jared Dudley

 

08- Early picks: Beasley (#2), J Alexander.    Late picks: George Hill, Batum, R Anderson, Ibaka.

 

09-Early picks: Thabeet (#2), Flynn.    Late picks: E Maynor, D Collison, Taj Gibson

 

10- Early picks: W Johnson(#4), Udoh.  Late picks:  Booker, Pondexter, J Crawford, Vasquez, 

 

[omphalosParticipant]

I’m not saying that early picks are always better, nobody can tell that, but I’ve seen Zeller play plenty of times, and he’s going to struggle in the NBA.

[JonOatsParticipant]

And I haven’t seen as much of him as the others (Only 3 UCONN games). That’s the reason I left him and Lamb off. Saturday’s game should say a lot since it’s so important for UCONN.

@ Omphalos. Zeller has averaged 16 points and 9.6 rebounds against Kentucky, Miami(twice), FSU, Maryland, and Duke all of which have big guys being considered by the NBA. Those are right at his averages for the season. Which games did you feel like he struggled?

 

 

[JonOatsParticipant]

 His averages against FSU, Cincy, Tenneesee, GTown, Louisville, and Syracuse.

8.8 points and 7.1 rebounds.

I watched all of the Tennessee game and Stokes (6’8") and Maymon (6’7") were dominating the inside.

[elliotmcadooParticipant]

You guys dont understand Drummond is where Stoudamire was at this point of his career trust me he will get the foul trouble down but he will be a very good player in the league and Ant Davis will deff be a star player he just developing in tht body of his which already gets almost 5 blocks a game in college so he will improve on the offense side esp if hes droppping 14 with all those players at Kentucky. Meyers Leonard also by the way will have a great NBA career he will start early in his career and show you what he has raw athletism like Javell McGee but is not a dumb guy and has more skill at this point. Kendall Marshall needs to be on a team with alot of scores so he can just pass the ball and take a jump shot when hes being left open and by the time hes in the league his jump shot shall be also better.

[B FreeParticipant]

 Your lists are a little misleading because almost of of the guys you listed as early picks were big men, reason: because size is premium in the league and you have to take risks when it comes to unpolished bigs so they are gonna let the undersized PGs Nelson, Brooks, Lowry Collison and the guys with out true positions Barbosa, Dudley, Anderson, Crawford, Jack and Delfino slip to later in the round if it means getting a franchise big man.

[JonOatsParticipant]

 Non bigs taken first ten on my list: Wagner, Livingston, L Jackson, M Williams, Morrison, S Williams, Webster, Alexander, Flynn, Johnson. 

So 10 of the 26 players listed were guards or small forwards. And several of the others are questionable as being listed as bigs, but I’ll give them to you. 

And the big guys that they passed on were pretty extensive too: ZBo, Perkins, Haywood, Lee, Splitter, Anderson, Ibaka, Gibson. 

 

[Mr. 19134Participant]

 I like how you conveniantly left out the rest of the lottery of those drafts.  There’s about an average of 2 or 3 guys from them lotteries that didn’t pan out and in ever draft there are going to be guys drafted late that are good but they still are rarely better then the players picked in the top ten.

Nobody drafted was better then Pau in that draft and Griffin was a stud if he didn’t park his truck infront of a train.

Wagner was worth the pick and was a stud also he would be an All Star had he not gotten ill with colonitis.

Beasley isn’t a bust and with his college production you would of probably been championing him over Rose same goes with Morrison you probably thought he should of been the first pick because of what he did in college.

Marshall is nothing like Kidd or Miller, Miller is a way better scorer and a deadly midrange shooter plus he use to be a great defender.  Kidd was super fast and also a great defender and rebounder who racked up steals and rebounds.

Marshall isn’t the defender or playmaker Paul Pierce he racks up steals and assists.  Glen Rice is a interesting one tho that’s not too far fetched.

You compared MKG to Ron Artest and the Matrix who have two totally different games so which one is it?

Andrew Bogut and Noah couldn’t play any different from each other althought in best case scenario I guess you could say Leonard develops into a Noah type.  

You compared Beal to Brandon Roy…I dun even know what to say about that.

You compared Tyler Zeller to Pau Gasol….WTF?  And Zeller is way more athletic then Hawes and will get more buckets running the floor.  Zeller is more like a weaker version of Marcin Gortat at best case.

And Kenyon Martin and Juwan Howard, again, 2 totally different type of players are we creating hybrids here or what?

And did you know that Meyers Leonard is a sophomore who only weighed 220 at most as a freshman and only averaged 2 ppg?  Davis is obviously way ahead of his projection.

 

[Mr. 19134Participant]

 JonOats are you forgetting that Davis dominated Tennesse twice and Louisville once?  Like complete domination.

[Bmore_DCParticipant]

 B Free makes a good point…

and @JonOates…i know what you are trying to say, but in the draft teams are really shooting for all-star to superstar capability…the players you seem to like all seem to be role players, which is fine, but when you are drafting top 5, teams usually go based off potential and physical abilities…sometimes they miss but when they dont they end up with guys like Dwight Howard and Dwayne Wade

[Bmore_DCParticipant]

 hahaha Mr.19134 goes H.A.M. 

[JonOatsParticipant]

 And those were just the really glaring ones. So GM’s get it wrong over a quarter of the time. I guess throwing darts you’d get it right 50% of the time so I’m not real impressed by that. 

Young quick Ron plays a very similiar game as Marion. Strong and good rebounder for their size. Do all the dirty work but can still score. Ron 7 years ago was an animal. 

Beal is a good playmaker. Handles pressure, athletic and a good shooter. Here’s the pre draft evaluation for Brandon Roy.

Good combination of athleticism, skill and defensive intensity. Nice NBA body. A slasher who likes to put the ball on the floor and get to the hole. Good ball-handling skills for a player his size. Knows how to create shots for himself and his teammates. Good rebounder for a guard. 

Beal has a more pure stroke but is underrated passing and driving. He’s also averaging 6.3 rebounds/game.

Bogut and Noah are about the same size as each other and Leonard and play smart controlled defense. Bogut is better offensively in the post, but both move well and can run pick and roll and pass well from the high post or outside. I’ve seen Leonard do the same thing with Illionis. Pulled Sullinger outside and hit shots. Set nice picks and rolled and passed out of it. 

Kenyon and Howard both could take guys outside and were crazy rebounders. Kenyon just has more of a vert like Thomas. 

And we just disagree about all the UNC guys. I think Zeller is a pf not a center and has more range than Gortat. And Davis looked fine against those teams, but Zeller got the better of him on Dec 3rd. 

[JonOatsParticipant]

2001-Arenas, Okur (2 All Stars)

2002-Boozer (All Star) Matt Barnes, Luis Scola (56th pick)

2003-Steve Blake, Pachulia, Bonner, James Jones, Kyle Korver, Mo Willams(All Star)

2004-Varajeo, Duhon, Ariza

2005-bass, Ilyasova, Turiaf, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Gortat 

2006-Novak, Paul Milsap

2007-Landry, McRoberts, G Davis, M Gasol (All Star), Ramon sessions

2008-Pekovic, Mario Chalmers, Mhba Moute, D. Jordan, Dragic, Bill Walker, Asik (All have been starters but Asik)

2009- Blair, Jonas Jerebko, Thorton, Budinger, Danny Green  

2010- Landry Fields and some undrafted kid named Lin

So 24 starters taken over the last 10 years came in the second round or undrafted. Almost the same number of top ten busts. Also 4 All Stars and wouldn’t be surprising if Ellis, Milsap, or Lin were in the next couple of years.

 

 

[So raspyParticipant]

"smoking that ganja" pretty much sums it up

[So raspyParticipant]

"smoking that ganja" pretty much sums it up

[Maniac MaciejParticipant]

Very true…every draft has some busts, and some surprises.

It is a risk/reward proposition. Sometimes you take a major risk on a player because of his obvious physical talents, and hope to get rewarded with an All-Star career. Sometimes you get Kwame Brown, sometimes you get Dwight Howard.

You have to calculate the odds that each player is going to succeed, and take your chances based on those odds. So, if you see a player like Anthony Davis, an athletic kid with a good basketball IQ, a 9’2" wingspan, that can handle the ball and be a game-changer on defense, the odds that he is going to find NBA success are exponentially higher than someone like Kendall Marshall, a passing point guard that can’t score and has defensive limitations.

[B FreeParticipant]

 Also the S Williams drafted at 5 you have listed is Sheldon Williams, a big man not  SF Shawne Williams 

[Jean_31Participant]

OMG maniac… Does davis really have a 9"2 wingspan?

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

H. Barnes, A. Davis, A. Drummond, J. Lamb, K. Marshall, A. Rivers, R. White, T. Wroten, C. Zeller, and T. Zeller.

By the way, I do feel like Wroten is just sucking me in just to throw out a 10 turnover and 10 horrible shot game in the NCAA tournament where they lose by 2.

[JonOatsParticipant]

youtu.be/KrWxPUSJoeg

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