[armchairgmParticipant]

*Players invited who decline to fully participate in the NBA Combine will be ineligible for selection in the NBA Draft starting in 2024 including league medical examinations, sharing of medical history, athletic testing, shooting drills, performance testing and measurements. Players will also be required to conduct team interviews, media circuits, player development sessions, but can opt out of 5 v 5 scrimmaging.

*High school players who sign pro contracts with G League Ignite, OTE or overseas will no longer be automatically eligible for the following draft and can now play for teams like G League Ignite for multiple years. They will become automatically eligible like overseas players in the draft year they turn 22.

[HitsterParticipant]

I like the idea of evening up the draft criteria as regards HS players who go pro and don’t go to NCAA.

The combine rules also make sense, nothing on draft age coming down to 18 again though thus giving us a chance of a superdraft one year. Something like this could impact future trade considerations and teams with draft assets could be sitting pretty.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The first change is important because it keeps agents from being able to manipulate the process to steer their players towards certain teams and away from others. Nick Smith’s knee is a big issue this summer. It would be unfair for his agent to be able to limit access to history and examinations to certain teams.

The automatic entry for HS players who opt for the non-traditional route should make the path more attractive. Michael Foster went undrafted and got about one-month of a two-way contract. Fanbo Zeng went undrafted, and played this past year in China. It makes sense for the NBA to offer these guys the opportunity to realize that they weren’t ready or wanted by the NBA at a certain point in time and continue to work at that different level. The G-League identifying 18-year old 5-stars isn’t going to be more successful than elite college teams, and I have often pointed out about the coin flip of success of names that line mock draft 1.0s. It is significantly harder to make it in the NBA through the back door, so this is a chance to give these guys the best chance to get in through the draft.

[HitsterParticipant]

If a player like Nick Smith has knee issues then in some ways the agent would not want preferred teams knowing about it as the red flags would go up. Plus a team drafting a player would likely want them to have a thorough medical before they considered drafting them.

I wonder how much back channel stuff goes on lets say Nick is in the draft mix for an OKC or Utah and his agents weren’t forthcoming with medical details does anyone doubt an Ainge or Prestil wouldn’t sound out someone from the Razorbacks about Nick’s knee issues?

[HitsterParticipant]

Nothing done with one and done and looks like the salary cap rules are being tightened up so teams could be moved to bottom of first round for future picks, lose MLE’s if they are serial repeat high salary tax level offenders.. Various tweaks to how many 5 year rookie deals/max deals a team can have on their roster. A few more roster spaces opend up too but ESPN explains it fully on their site.

One and done will be here to stay for several more years and will have been in situ well over 20 years before it is reviewed again. I don’t know how much the player’s association pushed for this to be reduced as it could cost current members their roster spaces in theory. There will be no “super draft” in the next couple of years either so teams who have amassed picks won’t have a chance to really cash in or teams to target their tank perfectly.

https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/insider/story/_/id/36247109/explaining-biggest-changes-nba-new-collective-bargaining-agreement

I’ve always felt players should have right to declare at 18 it’s not like every draft would have been HSSR dominated as it currently seems to be freshmen/first year eligible guys. Teams have vast resources and if they cannot do due dllegence on a prospect it is their problem. Players have the G League,/Overtime Elite now alongside NCAA if they didn’t want to declare straight out of HS.

The NCAA may well become less about recruiting one and done guys as the transfrer portal develops as teams can add a proven player at college level who may well be availble to stay on the team for more time than one and done guys.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The NBA markets itself as the best basketball league in the world. While the league has never really had 450 of the 450 best players in the world, it has the absolute best and many of the best of the rest. The problem with the roster structure of the league is that it makes young players who are not ready to contribute take up roster spots. By being on the roster, those players are rewarded with full NBA contracts. In a purely free market setup, Marjon Beauchamp is not making $2.5 million this year. Dyson Daniels isn’t making $5.5 million. Ousmane Dieng isn’t making $4.5 million. Their current abilities do not merit nearly that amount. They not among the current 450 best players in the world, and it really isn’t close. They have projectable traits to one day become pretty good, but that doesn’t mean they can hang at this moment in time This is a problem under the current structure where teams, at least, have some degree of exposure to them playing reasonable competition prior to entering the draft. It would only escalate without that one year of body of work. Taking more guys who can’t play and having them take the jobs of veteran player who can is not good for the league as a whole. I have mentioned many times that those mock draft 1.0s done right after the last draft are important markers for why the one-and-done is important to the league. It is a coin flip on just about every guy. Any idiot can see if someone is 6’8″ and athletic or 7’0″ and some semblance of coordinated. That does not mean they are pro basketball players. What happens when they aren’t the biggest most athletic people on the floor? What happens when an opposing coach tells his player, this guy has no left hand or can’t shoot straight? That is when the league ends up with Kel’el Ware and Dillon Mitchell as lottery picks when they couldn’t get on or stay on the court for their college teams. The NBA lived through that. Now, that can still happen. Some people still think Rayan Rupert merits a lottery pick because of his wingspan, but at least we know the guy is barely staying afloat in the NBL.

College teams will never stop recruiting one-and-done players. There are a number of reasons that go well beyond maximizing whether they go to next year’s Final Four. Being able to hang NBA jerseys of former players on the wall of a practice facility is a huge recruiting tool for any prospective athlete who is brought in. Guys want to make the league, and programs being able to show recruits that they have put players into the NBA is a huge tool whose value goes beyond the year a guy plays. Also, shoe and apparel sponsors want their merchandise purchased. This is why Adidas reps went to federal prison for paying the families of highly regarded players to go to schools that are contracted to Adidas. Nike and Under Armour are no different. They just didn’t get caught. Zion Williamson made Duke cool, and they wore Nike. Kansas Basketball is the biggest thing in Kansas. When they are good, their gear flies off shelves in that state. They wear Adidas. Now much like the mock drafts, they aren’t always right. I don’t know if Brian Bowen is playing anymore, and he is only 24. Also, some coaches have bonuses in their contract tied to recruiting rankings. I think this is more common in football than basketball, but it is always something to consider.

[HitsterParticipant]

Coaches like John Calipari made a big thing about getting guys drafted and was mocked for turning up at draft night in some quarters.

Looking at the current NCAA title holders the UConn Huskies they only have 4 current NBA players – one is Tyrese Martin who was drafted last year and another is Rudy Gay who has been in the league since 2006. UConn is a NCAA powerhouse but they aren’t an NBA production line.

Also they have only had another 38 NBA players in the last 75 plus years so that is one player every two years on average. Its great to know Ray Allen went there but I’m sure they value their numerous NCAA titles more.

I just think the draft is now totally all about one and done guys. The last year we didn’t have that rule 4 of the top 5 guys drafted were Soph or Jnr players at least.

As regards players not being ready to contribute – a rebuilding team often makes several trips to a lottery so can give these players time and a contending team may sometimes take a punt on a guy knowing he won’t get much playing time and can work his way up the bench. So I’d rather 18 be the draft age option and teams can decide if they will take a punt or not.

[JazzPParticipant]

Was there anything finalized about international players having to be 19 instead of 18? I remember reading a report that this was a topic that was discussed but I don’t remember if anything conclusive was reached.

If no such rule is implemented, I think it’s fairly possible that the next 3 #1 picks are international players–
2023 Victor Wembanyama, 2024 Zaccharie Risacher, 2025 Bassala Bagayoko

[HitsterParticipant]

I always thought the rule for Int guys to be draft eligible was they turn 19 during the year of the draft. In theory they may not be one year removed from graduating HS like the US based guys need to be. I had never thought of the rule that way but I guess it does apply. Someone born in December 2004 who was Int could declare this year but a US based guy who turned 18 in December 2022 wouldn’t graduate until this year so couldn’t declare until 2024.

Very interesting point and if you think about it Wemby was born on 5th January so if he’d have been a week earlier he’d already be in the NBA.

Risacher certainly has potential to be a top 3 pick and I’ve seen Spanish big Mara very high on some 2024 mocks. 2025 might be a bit early to start looking at although ESPN did an update on the next few years top prospects a couple of days ago. The name that jumped out at me was Carlos Boozer’s son Cameron who is draft eligible in 2026 and is already as tall as his dad is at 15 years old. With that size and pedigree he is worth keeping an eye on.

[JazzPParticipant]

Ah yeah I believe that’s indeed the way the rule is set up. I suppose if there is nothing formalized in the new CBA, then things will remain that way. I do think it’s a bit unequal but I also don’t know how big of a deal it is, there are plenty of other different circumstances for international prospects anyways.

I think it definitely is too early to start projecting 2025 haha and I am very impressed with Cameron Boozer too.
But all I know is that Bassala Bagayoko at 16 years old was earning more playing time in the Spanish ACB than *any* prospect who is young enough to need to declare for early entry in *this year’s* draft (essentially anybody in the ACB under 21)
And his results were pretty stunning too, he was genuinely decent at that level and even increased his role to starting a few games before he went down with an ACL injury. He’s breaking some of Luka’s records in Spain for age and production.

It’s so, so far out and he did just have a pretty serious injury (well wishes on his recovery), but honestly to me I think predicting him as the 2025 #1 feels safer than any 2024 predictions I have at this stage.
Especially since Boozer and Cooper Flagg are at this point not eligible until 2026

[HitsterParticipant]

Yep I’ve looked at the 2024 guys as much as regards who hasn’t declared this year and will likely do then. I’ve glanced at the ESPN top 100/50 etc as regards recruiting but not really checked out guys who are still HS Sophs or Jnrs.

Cameron Boozer I’ve only looked at as I can remember his father being a top NCAA and NBA player. The kid is already as tall as his dad and has the genetics to fill out plus already has a 3 point range that his dad never displayed so is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

[Author]

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