[valentine]

 NBA AVERAGE = 0 (based on position, ie, pg, sg, sf, pf, c)

-5 = 10 day NBA contract at best 

-4 = end of roster player

-3 = below average bench player

-2 = below average starter or slightly below average bench player on avg team

-1 = slightly below average starter or average bench player on average team

0 = average starter or slightly above average reserve, on an average team

+1 = Slightly above average player on an an average team. 

+2 = Above average player on an average team

+3 = Top 3 impact on an average team

+4 = best player on an average team

+5 = best player on a top 5 seed team

+6 = best player on a contender/potential HOF

+7 = Hall of Fame first ballot

+9 = GOAT candidate

+10 = GOAT

 

[CasualCelt]

Realistic Projection/Max Upside: 

1a) Ingram = +6/+7

1b) Simmons = +6/+7

3) Brown = +5/+7

4) Poeltl = +4.5/+6

5) Bender = +4/+7

 

 

 

[CasualCelt]

Realistic Projection/Max Upside: 

1a) Ingram = +6/+7

1b) Simmons = +6/+7

3) Brown = +5/+7

4) Poeltl = +4.5/+6

5) Bender = +4/+7

 

 

 

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 This would indicate that you have come around a bit on Simmons?

[CasualCelt]

 He still requires like a Myles Turner/Porzingis type stretch center, but they’re rare. 

With the other four prospects you don’t have to worry about system fit like you do with Simmons.

With Simmons, you not only need a stretch center, but you also need a SF with a 3 point shot. Even finding a SF with a 3 point shot is difficult.

Now, you don’t NEED to surround Simmons with shooters, if you’re happy playing like the Bucks and Magic.

 

This prospect grading system assumes Simmons ends up in a good situation tailor made to his game.

But there’s a strong argument for each of Ingram, Brown, and Poeltl to be drafted first.

Positional value alone would probably give Poeltl an extra point, because of the scarcity of good two-way NBA centers.

And Brown’s versatility to fit in any style of play and roster definitely works in his favor, and you’ll not I gave him the same 7 rating as Simmons and Ingram for upside. 

likelihood of system fit makes Brown arguably more likely to reach his full potential than Simmons, and ultimately be the better player.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[negguaryParticipant]

 I actually agree…a lot of people just don’t like you on here, but you clearly understand bball…you just like to stir the pot…

[negguaryParticipant]

 I actually agree…a lot of people just don’t like you on here, but you clearly understand bball…you just like to stir the pot…

[CasualCelt]

 He still requires like a Myles Turner/Porzingis type stretch center, but they’re rare. 

With the other four prospects you don’t have to worry about system fit like you do with Simmons.

With Simmons, you not only need a stretch center, but you also need a SF with a 3 point shot. Even finding a SF with a 3 point shot is difficult.

Now, you don’t NEED to surround Simmons with shooters, if you’re happy playing like the Bucks and Magic.

 

This prospect grading system assumes Simmons ends up in a good situation tailor made to his game.

But there’s a strong argument for each of Ingram, Brown, and Poeltl to be drafted first.

Positional value alone would probably give Poeltl an extra point, because of the scarcity of good two-way NBA centers.

And Brown’s versatility to fit in any style of play and roster definitely works in his favor, and you’ll not I gave him the same 7 rating as Simmons and Ingram for upside. 

likelihood of system fit makes Brown arguably more likely to reach his full potential than Simmons, and ultimately be the better player.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 This would indicate that you have come around a bit on Simmons?

[trelos6Participant]

No category for best player on rubbish team.

I can see Brown/Ingram being stuck on a terrible team for many years, albeit, the best player on that team.

 

  

[trelos6Participant]

No category for best player on rubbish team.

I can see Brown/Ingram being stuck on a terrible team for many years, albeit, the best player on that team.

 

  

[Hype Machine]

I think Simmons is realistic +7, but with the maximum of +9 because if he got a reliable pull-up mid-range jumpshot that would change everything. And a pull-up from 3pt range (don’t see it…but anyways) and he definitely has GOAT (of his era) conversation potential. I’ve heard people say his shooting mechanics are fine…and he needs reps. That’s wrong. He twists his body and puts his weight on his shooting-hand side, doesn’t square up, pulls his shooting arm away and leans back. So it is broken…and a shooting coach needs to fix it. I doubt LSU even has a shooting coach, but whoever drafts him will pay top $$ to get one. 

I’m not prepared to give Poeltl that kinda hype. I Give +3 to +4. I see him being the 3rd best player on a really good team…. But the league just doesn’t favour throwback 7footers like it used to, and I see more upside in guys like Towns, Okafor, Porzingis and Turner (who I really like). 

Jaylen Brown has the biggest range for me. I’ll go +3 to +7.  His skills aren’t on par with his strength & athleticism. If they catch up, he could be the kinda guy that gets to the foul-line regularly and has the strength to play up to the PF position. Once again, it comes down to shooting adding a 2 to 3 pt swing, and not all of these guys with poor NCAA shooting will improve enough. Its hard to say who will and who won’t. 

Not sure what the hell Skal Labissiere is doing in the lottery on mocks on this site. If my team drafted him, I’d wonder what kind of values they’re trying to reinforce into the team. Mentally and Physically weak. Ahh well…I’m keen to be proven wrong. I haven’t seen the range that makes him a stretch 4 at all. Some nice finesse moves…but not enough to be more than a role player on a middle level team. So his range is -1 to +1 to me. 

A guy I like is Ivan Rabb. I think he’s going to be a sure-fire starter in the league and someone who is reliable and without many weaknesses. He won’t be the best player, but I could see him being highly valued by the contending teams.. I also think he’ll be one of those Juwan Howard guys who plays into his late 30s on the end of a bench. I give him a range +3 to +5

And finally, another guy who I believe has a big range is Stephen Zimmerman. He is a better version of Skal Labissiere in my eyes. He isn’t physical, but he’s not soft. And I like his offensive versatility. With his high release, I see him being a really difficult player to match up on, and someone who can protect the rim with his length. Possible even offer some OE. His range as well is +3 to +5

 

 

[negguaryParticipant]

for Ingram?? 

[Hype Machine]

Ingram is a worthy #1 in almost any year. I give him +7 to +8. It really is 1a and 1b this year…and not cos Simmons isn’t good enough…just that Ingram is equally incredible.  (There is no +8 category…so I’m assuming its just varying levels of awesome). 

I see a guy that can get his shot off anytime his wants, and has excellent shooting form. Mix that with a high release and ability to create space for himself with good-enough handles and a bit of shake to his game, and he will be an efficient scorer. Not sure why his ft% is so low…I think that will change.

In regards to comparison with KD. Durant is similarly skinny, but has more ability to hit off-balance shots (1 foot fadeaways, pulling up on a dime, And 1’s etc)…and has an unmatched scorers mentality. If Ingram can equal him in both of these areas, which I’m not really that confident of, then I think he can be a top-5 player in the league. A worse case scenario is a more versatile Rashard Lewis.

One guy I didn’t mention is Jamal Murray. I think he will be an All-Star and is highly underated. He plays alongside Tyler Ulis which makes life easy, but the NBA is full of great PG’s and I think he can be a great off-the-ball scorer who really stretches defenses. Not a play-maker though. +6 to +7

 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

Ingram is a worthy #1 in almost any year. I give him +7 to +8. It really is 1a and 1b this year…and not cos Simmons isn’t good enough…just that Ingram is equally incredible.  (There is no +8 category…so I’m assuming its just varying levels of awesome). 

I see a guy that can get his shot off anytime his wants, and has excellent shooting form. Mix that with a high release and ability to create space for himself with good-enough handles and a bit of shake to his game, and he will be an efficient scorer. Not sure why his ft% is so low…I think that will change.

In regards to comparison with KD. Durant is similarly skinny, but has more ability to hit off-balance shots (1 foot fadeaways, pulling up on a dime, And 1’s etc)…and has an unmatched scorers mentality. If Ingram can equal him in both of these areas, which I’m not really that confident of, then I think he can be a top-5 player in the league. A worse case scenario is a more versatile Rashard Lewis.

One guy I didn’t mention is Jamal Murray. I think he will be an All-Star and is highly underated. He plays alongside Tyler Ulis which makes life easy, but the NBA is full of great PG’s and I think he can be a great off-the-ball scorer who really stretches defenses. Not a play-maker though. +6 to +7

 

 

 

[negguaryParticipant]

for Ingram?? 

[Hype Machine]

I think Simmons is realistic +7, but with the maximum of +9 because if he got a reliable pull-up mid-range jumpshot that would change everything. And a pull-up from 3pt range (don’t see it…but anyways) and he definitely has GOAT (of his era) conversation potential. I’ve heard people say his shooting mechanics are fine…and he needs reps. That’s wrong. He twists his body and puts his weight on his shooting-hand side, doesn’t square up, pulls his shooting arm away and leans back. So it is broken…and a shooting coach needs to fix it. I doubt LSU even has a shooting coach, but whoever drafts him will pay top $$ to get one. 

I’m not prepared to give Poeltl that kinda hype. I Give +3 to +4. I see him being the 3rd best player on a really good team…. But the league just doesn’t favour throwback 7footers like it used to, and I see more upside in guys like Towns, Okafor, Porzingis and Turner (who I really like). 

Jaylen Brown has the biggest range for me. I’ll go +3 to +7.  His skills aren’t on par with his strength & athleticism. If they catch up, he could be the kinda guy that gets to the foul-line regularly and has the strength to play up to the PF position. Once again, it comes down to shooting adding a 2 to 3 pt swing, and not all of these guys with poor NCAA shooting will improve enough. Its hard to say who will and who won’t. 

Not sure what the hell Skal Labissiere is doing in the lottery on mocks on this site. If my team drafted him, I’d wonder what kind of values they’re trying to reinforce into the team. Mentally and Physically weak. Ahh well…I’m keen to be proven wrong. I haven’t seen the range that makes him a stretch 4 at all. Some nice finesse moves…but not enough to be more than a role player on a middle level team. So his range is -1 to +1 to me. 

A guy I like is Ivan Rabb. I think he’s going to be a sure-fire starter in the league and someone who is reliable and without many weaknesses. He won’t be the best player, but I could see him being highly valued by the contending teams.. I also think he’ll be one of those Juwan Howard guys who plays into his late 30s on the end of a bench. I give him a range +3 to +5

And finally, another guy who I believe has a big range is Stephen Zimmerman. He is a better version of Skal Labissiere in my eyes. He isn’t physical, but he’s not soft. And I like his offensive versatility. With his high release, I see him being a really difficult player to match up on, and someone who can protect the rim with his length. Possible even offer some OE. His range as well is +3 to +5

 

 

[Hype Machine]

 I’m also not one of these nostalgic guys that makes claims like:

"We will never see anyone better than MJ in our lifetime"

Its ridiculous to assume the greatest player ever is restricted to the first 20-30 years of proper pro basketball. I also believe players are always getting better in the same way that world records are being broken in other sports like 100m sprints. The sport evolves…as do players. 

I plan on living til I’m 100…and I was just a boy when MJ was dominating. Using this scale, I fully intend on giving out +9s and +10s.

 

[CasualCelt]

The system wasn’t invented last year, or Porzingis would have been a 7/9.

This system didn’t even exist this morning, which is probably why it doesn’t have an 8 in there. But this +/- styles system was a nice morning brain blast. 

 

 

[CasualCelt]

The system wasn’t invented last year, or Porzingis would have been a 7/9.

This system didn’t even exist this morning, which is probably why it doesn’t have an 8 in there. But this +/- styles system was a nice morning brain blast. 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

 I’m also not one of these nostalgic guys that makes claims like:

"We will never see anyone better than MJ in our lifetime"

Its ridiculous to assume the greatest player ever is restricted to the first 20-30 years of proper pro basketball. I also believe players are always getting better in the same way that world records are being broken in other sports like 100m sprints. The sport evolves…as do players. 

I plan on living til I’m 100…and I was just a boy when MJ was dominating. Using this scale, I fully intend on giving out +9s and +10s.

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I don’t think you understand what GOAT means… It means Greatest of all Time… There’s only one. So why do you have a rating system with a GOAT on there, while rating multiple players?

[CasualCelt]

Don’t be hatin’.

[Hype Machine]

The truth about Goats is that no-one knows what shape or form they’ll come in..and no-one knows how the game will evolve. You can’t see it coming..you just know when they’ve arrived.

A Goat could come in the form of a 6’9" PG with unmatched court vision like Magic. It could come as a 6’3" PG with unlimited shooting range and a quick release like Steph Curry. It could come as a 330lb monster in the paint with ballerina footwork like Shaq. It could be a 7’2" beanpole with an unstoppable hookshot like Kareem. Hell..Steve Nash consistently ran possibly the best offenses player ever and he was an unathletic, undersized white guy and Larry Bird could have replaced Billy Ho as the chump on White Men Cant Jump.

What form will the next GOAT take? If I was to guess, 6’10 Simmons (with a reliable jumpshot) is in the conversation.

[ItsVictorOladipoParticipant]

The truth about Goats is that no-one knows what shape or form they’ll come in..and no-one knows how the game will evolve. You can’t see it coming..you just know when they’ve arrived.

———————————————–

Exactly, so why would you ever grade a prospect a 9 "GOAT candidate" let alone a 10 "GOAT"?

It seems like a ridiculous label to assign a prospect…

 

 

 

[ItsVictorOladipoParticipant]

The truth about Goats is that no-one knows what shape or form they’ll come in..and no-one knows how the game will evolve. You can’t see it coming..you just know when they’ve arrived.

———————————————–

Exactly, so why would you ever grade a prospect a 9 "GOAT candidate" let alone a 10 "GOAT"?

It seems like a ridiculous label to assign a prospect…

 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

1) Im hype machine

2) Based on Potential, Upside and previous accomplishments

3) Optimism

4) Willingness to make a bold prediction and get it wrong

If someone couldnt see Lebron out of HS, Shaq/Wilt out of College had the potential to be a GOAT, they need to get their glasses checked. Others creep up on you.

[Hype Machine]

1) Im hype machine

2) Based on Potential, Upside and previous accomplishments

3) Optimism

4) Willingness to make a bold prediction and get it wrong

If someone couldnt see Lebron out of HS, Shaq/Wilt out of College had the potential to be a GOAT, they need to get their glasses checked. Others creep up on you.

[Hype Machine]

The truth about Goats is that no-one knows what shape or form they’ll come in..and no-one knows how the game will evolve. You can’t see it coming..you just know when they’ve arrived.

A Goat could come in the form of a 6’9" PG with unmatched court vision like Magic. It could come as a 6’3" PG with unlimited shooting range and a quick release like Steph Curry. It could come as a 330lb monster in the paint with ballerina footwork like Shaq. It could be a 7’2" beanpole with an unstoppable hookshot like Kareem. Hell..Steve Nash consistently ran possibly the best offenses player ever and he was an unathletic, undersized white guy and Larry Bird could have replaced Billy Ho as the chump on White Men Cant Jump.

What form will the next GOAT take? If I was to guess, 6’10 Simmons (with a reliable jumpshot) is in the conversation.

[CasualCelt]

Don’t be hatin’.

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I don’t think you understand what GOAT means… It means Greatest of all Time… There’s only one. So why do you have a rating system with a GOAT on there, while rating multiple players?

[CasualCelt]

 Jaylen Brown shooting 34% from 3 on 44 attempts in conference play.

Such a safer bet to develop an NBA 3pt shot of at least 30%, rather than Simmons.

 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

The thing with Simmons shot is his form. As a child prodigy he never had to shoot because he could do everything else so well and it wasn’t a priority.

He badly needs a shooting coach and he needs to overhaul his entire mechanics. I’ve heard suggestions that he should switch hands..This might be possible given that Ive seen him show equal aptitude with both hands passing, hook shots, floaters, and around the rim. Hard for me to say whether thats plausable since I don’t know what its like to be ambidextrous. But fixing that left-handed mechanics he’s using now is a minimum 3 year process if extending to NBA 3pt range. Being an above average 3pt shooter isn’t a pre-requisite to being the GOAT…but keeping defenses honest is (eg not standing back, going under screens etc). 

The thing is..he chose a school which invests very little in basketball. I bet LSU doesnt have a specialist shooting coach. I bet Duke (his 2nd choice) has an excellent one.  

If he doesnt get 3pt range on his shot…I think his basement is a Chris Webber type playmaking PF where teams can play inside-out through him. If he does…the skys the limit. 

 

 

 

[CasualCelt]

 Last player who tried switching shooting hands was Tristan Thompson.

I watched Rondo never conquer his fear of shooting.

I watched Smart go from a 20-something 3 point shooter in college, to a 34% 3pt shooter as a rookie on a ton of shots.

Smart takes his shots with tons of confidence.

Confidence is like 80% of the equation for 3 point shots. 

Rarely, if ever, has a player gone from totally, totally broken mechanics like Simmons, + a total lack of confidence to even PRACTICE the shot, to emerge as a competent 3 point shooter who shoots with confidence.

Brown is shooting 34% from 3 in conference play, and he matches or surpasses Simmons in most other areas of the game. Brown is much quicker driving to the basket, for instance, and a better defender.

In the NBA, Brown’s competent 3 point shot is going to create tons of wide open driving lanes to the hoop.

Meanwhile, teams are just going to dare Simmons to shoot the 3, sag way off, and Simmons’ team’s offensive efficiency is going to suffer.

Just look at Rondo, teams sagged off of him, and Rondo’s Celtics never managed to have an above average offense after like 2010-11, even with KG, Pierce, Allen, and others on the team.

Rondo got his assists, but he wasn’t actually running an efficient offense.

Sure, Simmons could break down and build up his jumper from scratch, and start shooting with confidence, but I think we’re looking at a 4-5 year process under the best of circumstances.

And when the playoffs come, and that big shot comes, what are the odds that he’ll ever get to a point where he’s taking that big 3 not only with confidence, but with accuracy?

 

I hear what you’re saying though, and a small chance of being GOAT contender is a lot more than most prospects can reach. And that’s pretty special in itself.

But Brown looks like a 6’7" DWade in the making, and Ingram looks like a next generation analytics-era superstar in the making. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CasualCelt]

 Last player who tried switching shooting hands was Tristan Thompson.

I watched Rondo never conquer his fear of shooting.

I watched Smart go from a 20-something 3 point shooter in college, to a 34% 3pt shooter as a rookie on a ton of shots.

Smart takes his shots with tons of confidence.

Confidence is like 80% of the equation for 3 point shots. 

Rarely, if ever, has a player gone from totally, totally broken mechanics like Simmons, + a total lack of confidence to even PRACTICE the shot, to emerge as a competent 3 point shooter who shoots with confidence.

Brown is shooting 34% from 3 in conference play, and he matches or surpasses Simmons in most other areas of the game. Brown is much quicker driving to the basket, for instance, and a better defender.

In the NBA, Brown’s competent 3 point shot is going to create tons of wide open driving lanes to the hoop.

Meanwhile, teams are just going to dare Simmons to shoot the 3, sag way off, and Simmons’ team’s offensive efficiency is going to suffer.

Just look at Rondo, teams sagged off of him, and Rondo’s Celtics never managed to have an above average offense after like 2010-11, even with KG, Pierce, Allen, and others on the team.

Rondo got his assists, but he wasn’t actually running an efficient offense.

Sure, Simmons could break down and build up his jumper from scratch, and start shooting with confidence, but I think we’re looking at a 4-5 year process under the best of circumstances.

And when the playoffs come, and that big shot comes, what are the odds that he’ll ever get to a point where he’s taking that big 3 not only with confidence, but with accuracy?

 

I hear what you’re saying though, and a small chance of being GOAT contender is a lot more than most prospects can reach. And that’s pretty special in itself.

But Brown looks like a 6’7" DWade in the making, and Ingram looks like a next generation analytics-era superstar in the making. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

The thing with Simmons shot is his form. As a child prodigy he never had to shoot because he could do everything else so well and it wasn’t a priority.

He badly needs a shooting coach and he needs to overhaul his entire mechanics. I’ve heard suggestions that he should switch hands..This might be possible given that Ive seen him show equal aptitude with both hands passing, hook shots, floaters, and around the rim. Hard for me to say whether thats plausable since I don’t know what its like to be ambidextrous. But fixing that left-handed mechanics he’s using now is a minimum 3 year process if extending to NBA 3pt range. Being an above average 3pt shooter isn’t a pre-requisite to being the GOAT…but keeping defenses honest is (eg not standing back, going under screens etc). 

The thing is..he chose a school which invests very little in basketball. I bet LSU doesnt have a specialist shooting coach. I bet Duke (his 2nd choice) has an excellent one.  

If he doesnt get 3pt range on his shot…I think his basement is a Chris Webber type playmaking PF where teams can play inside-out through him. If he does…the skys the limit. 

 

 

 

[CasualCelt]

 Jaylen Brown shooting 34% from 3 on 44 attempts in conference play.

Such a safer bet to develop an NBA 3pt shot of at least 30%, rather than Simmons.

 

 

 

[Author]

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