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thparadox 10 years, 12 months ago.
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- Posted on: Thu, 06/25/2015 - 11:43am #60610

thparadoxParticipantRISK vs POTENTIAL analysis of the 2015 NBA Draft
This is my personal top 20 for this draft. My draft philsophy follows the profiles. TL;DR draft for upside and flexibility.
1. D’Angelo Russell
Risk: 4/10
Potential: 10/10
Position Flexibility
Russell is an outstandingly skilled guard. He is a combo guard in the best possible sense. His athleticism is underrated, and he has the length and quickness to play either PG or SG. This is a very attractive element of his profile. While, I think player positions are overrated, the added optionality that Russell provides at either guard position is important. We saw with the Warriors this year that flexibility on offense and defense produces elite levels of efficiency (klay thompson, Draymond Green are both multifaceted). The Spurs have also dominated thanks to an elite passing team. Russell’s ability to play shooting guard effectively gives a team
Rebounding
One of the best rebounding guards
Defensive instincts
Diversified scorer.
Can create off the dribble for himself and others, plus he’s an excellent shooter. He is highly efficient, so it’s very difficult to defend him. In an emergency, he can create and make difficult jump shots. Already has an excellent pull up 3pt shot off the dribble. We’ve seen how effective this shot can be (Harden / Curry). He has a high basketball IQ,
CONCLUSION:
Russell has as much upside as anyone in the draft. The value for shot creators who can shoot off the dribble and pass has never been higher. Russell can already do these things at an elite level. Risk is also lower because of this. While small ball lineups are decreasing the need for one-dimensional big men, Russell will have value merely as a shooter.
He reminds me of Brandon Roy and Manu Ginobili.
2. Karl Anthony Towns
Risk: 4/10
Potential: 10/10
Versatile
Smart, fundamental big man. He is strong in all areas: inside finishing, offensive and defensive rebounding, and interior defense. In particular, his preference for the hook shot is notable. It gives him a go-to move that many other big men lack when entering the league. He has both a jump hook and a running hook, which makes it more difficult for defenders to read.
Strong passer
He is a good passer, both in the high block and the post. Post-passing is an increasingly important skill as the league is dominated by the three point shot. Not being able to pass to three point shooters severely limits the effectiveness of post-up plays.
High shooting ability
He shows great promise as a jump shooter. His FT% is already up to 82%
Strong defensive instincts
On defense, he has very good lateral defense, with an encouraging ability to hedge on the pick and roll. This kind of skill is what elevates good defenders to elite status. For example, Tim Duncan’s worst defensive year was when he experienced knee issues because he was a step slow on the P&R defense. Similarly, Draymond Green’s excellence on defense this year is largely due to superb abilty to switch any pick and roll and defend with lateral movement.
Agile, but lacking smoothness and explosion
Towns is somewhat limited by his lack of athleticism. He lacks the explosion that freak athletes seem to have. Furthermore, his movements are less smooth and balanced than a Tim Duncan or Jahlil Okafor. However, his length, quickness, basketball IQ, and skill reduce these concerns to a large degree.
CONCLUSION: Karl Towns represents a very low risk option because his potential is diversified across all areas of the game. Although his lack of freak athleticism / balance is a slight concern, he has high potential in every other aspect of the game. Overall, I think his upside is slightly lower than D’Angelo Russell, but it comes at much lower risk. An excellent choice as the #1 pick. He is comparable to Al Horford, and perhaps a poor man’s Tim Duncan.
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
Risk: 5/10
Potential: 10/10
Shot creator
Mudiay is an excellent shot creator. I am reminded of Lebron and Tyreke Evans when I see the way he can take his man off the dribble and use his body and footwork to find his way to the rim. The are plenty of point guards who can penetrate and get the rim in today’s NBA, but finishing at the rim is a challenge for many of these players. Mudiay has both penetrate and finish.
Advanced court vision
Terrific both in transition and in the half court. He has an excellent feel for the pick and roll. This is a key NBA skill.
Jumpshot is inconsistent
His jumpshot is the biggest hole in his game. he shot under 60% at the FT line, and 30% from three. Looking at his video clips, Mudiay’s shooting form is often excellent. Consistency is the main problem for him. I think he has a good chance to improve as he gains more repititions in the next couple of years.
Defense
It is hard to judge Mudiay’s defense based on his time in China. It is clear that he has the athleticism to be a great defender. On some plays, he clearly loses focus. At this point, I think we can expect him to be a mediocre defender with plenty of room for upside.
CONCLUSION:
Mudiay is perhaps the most naturally gifted player in the draft. Although Mudiay’s lack of a consistent jumpshot is a crucial weakness, even if he remains below average, he can still be a superstar. Russell Westbrook and John Wall and examples of players who have poor jump shots, yet fit the exact same mold as Mudiay.
Mudiay is slightly higher risk than Towns, but is arguable a better pick because his potential is a bit higher due to the athleticism and shot creation ability.
4. Kristaps Porzingis
Risk: 7/10
Potential: 10/10
Quickness and Elevation
Excellent quickness and coordination for his height. At 7’1, he moves like a SF. He uses this to dominate in transition, on the offensive glass, and with defensive movement. He uses his quickness and length to get by his defender and all the way to the rim. He has high potential as a pick and roll defender. He is also quite nimble and can elevate well on his jump. He will be an excellent target for alley oops, which have become a deadly weapon on the pick and roll (e.g. DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler)
Stretch Shooter
He will enter the league with an excellent jump shot. He shot 38% from 3 in Europe this year. Not only is it accurate, but he has a well developed ability to get his shot off from the perimeter. He can come off screens in either direction, pick and pop, and even shows the ability to create jumpers off the dribble (pull up and step back)
Offensive rebounder only
Shows excellent timing and instincts on offensive rebounds. This skill normally translates very well to the NBA. However, he struggles on the defensive glass because he is weaker / lighter than opposing big men, so he stuggles to box out. Given his body type, it will be difficult for him to become a good defensive rebounder, but it is not at all impossible. He has a similar body to Kevin Garnett.
Defensive lapses
Some plays he is fully aware of what the offense is doing and reacts very well. He uses his quickness to get position, then has the length and leaping ability to challenge shots the rim. However, he will often lose track of players, which causes him to be out of position. I think this can be rectified, especially within a good defensive system.
CONCLUSION:
Porzingis certainly fits a role as a stretch 4. He is young at 19, so there is plenty of time for him to work on his strength and defensive awareness. His defensive awareness will be crucial if he wants to develop into a superstar, because it will affect his ability to box out for defensive rebounds and his defense. However, he has extraordinary quickness and finesse on his jump shot. His three point shooting is already excellent, so he should be able to make an impact whether he progresses well or not. Andrea Bargnani is the absolute worst case scenario for him, as Porzingis has far more advanced dribbling, mobility and a quicker release. He clearly has the upside of a Dirk Nowitzki. Risk rating is high due to the Bargnani bust potential, which I believe to be low odds.
5. Justice Winslow
Risk: 5/10
Potential: 9.5/10
Winslow has an excellent profile.
He is a fantastic spot up shooter who can nail open jumpers. He has a great combination of footwork, handle, timing and court vision which makes him a terror on the fast break, and also a great slasher.
Although he does not have advanced scoring moves, and sometimes struggles to create offense, he has an excellent fundamental base from which to build. He struggled shooting off the dribble, and his finishing near the rim was rushed at times. However, it’s reasonable to expect that he can improve greatly in these areas.
Winslow is very strong, and fairly quick. Though he is not very long, he has the size and strength to play SF, where he may have a quickness advantage. In the post, he has great footwork, and is likely to be a mismatch if a smaller defender is covering him.
He improved over the course of the NCAA season, and peaked during march madness. Although the sample size is small, Winslow showed that he has potential to be a shot creator. Similar to Harden, he is smart about his footwork and shows an ability to draw fouls.
Defensively, his quick, strong, and has great defensive awareness.
CONCLUSION:
Winslow comes into the league as a ready made 3&D player, with the handle, footwork, and court vision to potentally be much more. Although he seems less likely to reach superstar levels than the 4 players above, he is less risky than Portzingis.
6. Jahlil Okafor
Risk: 5/10
Potential: 9.5/10
I think Okafor is slightly overrated for a few reasons. First, he is not just a mediocre defender, but an abominable one. This is not to say that he can’t improve, but it is clearly an uphill battle. His defensive shortcomings appear to be related to his quickness, jumping ability, and defensive awareness. Fixing his defensive issues will not be easy. It is unlikely that he will ever be a rim protector.
Second, Okafor lacks the perimeter game necessary to play power forward in today’s NBA game. This is a problem because ideally his team would pair him with a shooting big man or an interior defending big man. Unless that big man is both a shooter and defender, this will create a weakness on either defense or offense.
That said, Okafor possesses very rare post scoring and face up scoring skills for a big man. He has a complete array of moves which he can use to create shots. He has a feather soft touch on the ball, and so he converts a high percentage of these shots. Furthermore, he is a good passer out of the post when double teams arrive. This will be far more important at the NBA level.
CONCLUSION:
Despite major flaws, I still think Okafor should be considered a potential superstar, and is a strong pick in the 4-6 range. Portzingis and Winslow make fine picks ahead of him only because they are underrated, and lack the glaring flaws that Okafor has.
7. Stanley Johnson
Risk: 6/10
Potential: 9.5/10
Good shooting ability on the catch and shoot. Also has a solid pull up jumper.
Very athletic. Good quickness, incredible strength, good coordination. He shows
Strong basketball IQ and he keeps improving. Terrific timing and judgement on defense when he’s locked in.
CONCLUSION:
Stanley Johnson comes in just outside the top 6. He is surprisingly agile and smooth for his size. He has great scoring instincts, and seems to be improving rapidly. I think he clearly has potential as a Draymond Green / Ron Artest. In addition, he has a high probability of reaching that potential due to his strong work ethic.
8. Mario Hezonja
Risk: 8/10
Potential 9.5 / 10
Explosive athlete. Great shooter with excellent balance on the jumper off the dribble.
However, he displays poor shot selection, appearing to be either selfish, or lacking in court vision.
It seems that basketball IQ, dribbling/passing skill and court vision may all be an issue for him. That is a detremental combination. Furthermore, he has excellent potential on defense, but it’s not clear how that will translate to the NBA.
CONCLUSION:
Hezonja seems one dimensional to me. He could end up as a gunner in the JR Smith mold. That is a scary comparison.
The overwhelming shooting, athleticism and defensive potential make him one of the last players on my list with superstar potential.
9. Cameron Payne
Risk: 8/10
Potential: 9.5/10
One of the top non-seniors in Win Shares. His level of competition adds a level of skepticism to his numbers. However, he has a terrific profile as a PG with great vision and shooting ability.
He is slightly older than most of the prospects ahead of him on this list.
CONCLUSION:
Despite these knocks (age, height, conference), Payne has more upside than some might expect. Point guard is one of the most difficult positions to project because it is so skill dependent. Payne may have less upside now, but he has proven an ability to improve his game and add skills. This lowers his risk, and perhaps raises his probability of reaching his potential compared to some of the freshman prospects.
10. Kelly Oubre
Risk: 9/10
Potential: 10/10
Oubre is without a doubt the biggest boom or bust pick in the draft. As an upside prospect, Oubre is a relatively strong choice because he has a diverse baseline of skills to go with outstanding athleticism and length.
If he can stay focused, Oubre should be a good defender immediately. He has terrific lateral quickness and anticipation. He also was a solid catch and shoot 3pt shooter.
The rest of his game is a questionmark. He is particularly hindered by his lack of dribbling ability and passing skill at the current time.
CONCLUSION:
I think it is worth it to swing for the fences as a general draft strategy. From that perspective, Oubre has enough talent to be worth a late lottery pick. This clearly a dice roll, but there are no other players with high upside at this point.
11. Frank Kaminsky
RIsk: 5/10
Potential: 8.5/10
Kaminsky’s outsiding shooting alone should be enough to garner minutes in the league.
Since he is a good rebounder, I think it’s safe to compare him to Ryan Anderson. Kaminsky has a well rounded offensive game, with the ability to drive or pull up in the mid range.
His defense is middling at best. He is likely too small to guard Centers, but too slow to guard Power Forwards. This is a big problem, and puts a cap on his potential.
CONCLUSION:
It’s important to note that he is older than many of the other prospects in lottery consideration. This also limits his upside. However, his versatility on offense, and relative mobility for a 7 footer, gives him a high degree of value if he can translate his game. He might be quick enough to play stretch 4 next to a defensive big man (like DeAndre Jordan or Tyson Chandler).
12. Tyus Jones
Risk: 6/10
Potential: 8.5/10
At 6’1", with average athleticism, Tyus Jones enters the league at the perfect time. He is a superb pure point guard who also has a deadly shot (3s, pull-ups, FT). He has great court vision, sense of timing in both transition and half court, and advanced P&R skills. These are crucial skills for PG in today’s NBA.
Jones biggest weakness is his defense. However, as a point guard, this is slightly less important. He is very young, so he can improve over time.
CONCLUSION:
At minimum Jones is a solid backup point guard. I think he has potential for much more. Many point guards have blossomed in their transition from NCAA to NBA as the game is more open and creative dribble penetration, solid passing, and 3pt shooting become more important. Tyus is underrated this year, and he will make for an excellent pick.
13. Delon Wright
Risk: 8/10
Potential: 9/10
CONCLUSION:
This selection will surprise some people, so I will explain in detail.
Delon suffers as a prospect because he is a senior, and has much less time to develop than the other picks. The risk for him is high because there is a risk that he will stop improving. However, in Delon’s case, I think there are a number of offsetting factors which continue to make him a great pick.
He is a huge PG at 6’5", and has solid athleticism. He plays intense, athletic defense at both PG and SG, which we see in his high steal and block percentages. These numbers are correlated with NBA success.
His ability to naturally play PG and SG is a crucial advantage. The league is dominated by point guard play. A team with Wright at the SG position can essentially run with 2 point guards at the same time. We’ve seen that this can be an effective combination, e.g. Phoenix Suns in 2013-2014 with Dragic and Bledsoe. This flexibility greatly improves his upside.
Furthermore, Delon is older, but he also has better polished PG skills. Many point guards enter the league with major turnover problems. In his senior year, Delon had a 32.8 AST% to 14.4 TO%, which is excellent.
Also, his upside is high because of his outstanding versatility. He has potential to create offense in a large variety of ways: fast break, P&R, slashing. He is even effective with more advanced moves like the floater, and at drawing fouls.
Finally, Delon’s shooting numbers are not outstanding, but they show potential. His shot improved as the season progressed. He shot 84% from the FT line, so it is reasonable expect that his numbers can improve with practice. A important modification that he can make is to shoot off the hop (instead of 1-2 step). This would greatly increase the speed of his release. Currently, he tries to pull up with a bit of a 1-2 step, but this is a doomed approach.
CONCLUSION:
Delon has potential in every aspect of the game. Combined with excellent length, athleticism, and attitude, he is one of the few late picks with star potential.
14. Willie Cauley-Stein
Risk: 8/10
Potential: 8.5/10
Game changing defensive player. Supremely versatile on that end. He can guard any position. Both perimeter and interior defender, and one of the best big man ever for lateral movement. Outstanding athleticism.
However, his offensive game is non-existent. He does have potential on his jump shot. FT% improved dramatically from year 1 to year 3
CONCLUSION:
Unfortunately, Cauley-Stein’s upside is severly limited by his lack of offense. It appears that DeAndre Jordan is his ceiling. His surgically repaired ankle is a big concern, and drops him a few spots in my mind.
15. Kevin Looney
Risk: 9/10
Potential: 8.5/10
Looney is a prototypical 3&D player. He is an excellent defender and rebounder. Plus he can knock down the 3 (43%), but only took 51 attempts.
However, the rest of his game is severely limited at this point. He doesn’t have any type of ability to create shots, and has no real offense inside the 3 point line.
CONCLUSION:
Looney is young, so there is still time for development. His risk is somewhat lower than his talent level might suggest, because he fits a need so clearly fits the 3+D profile. This should earn him minutes immediately, which will aid in his development.
16. Devin Booker
Risk: 7/10
Potential: 8/10
Great, pure jump shot. Similar to Klay Thompson’s profile as a prospect.
It’s important to note that Booker is the youngest player in the draft. However, he also has a wingspan which is nearly equivalent to his height, which is shorter than for most NBA players. Standing reach is also far below average. This means that he might be more similar in size to a 6’4" player.
17. Arturas Gudaitis
Risk: 8/10
Potential: 9/10
The early success of Jusuf Nurkic elevates this Gudaitis. Gudaitis possesses terrific mobility at the PF/C position. He is quick, and has excellent footwork slashing to the basket.
His lateral movement is also excellent on defense. He should be very adaptable in pick and roll situations. He has blocked a decent number of shots in Europe, but this may not translate well to the NBA.
Overall, Gudaitis is a home run pick. He is clearly a Center, but is undersized at 6’10. His quickness and fluid movement can make up for that to some degree, but it’s not clear how exactly his game will be affected. Still, he has a ton of potential, and is worth taking a chance on any time after the lottery.
18. Myles Turner
Risk: 8/10
Potential: 8/10
CONCLUSION:
Excellent size, but he moves very awkwardly. He is often hunched over and he takes big plodding steps.
He does have some shooting potential, with a high FT%. However, I think that physical attributes will hurt his ability to play at the next level. This will effect him on both defense and offense
19. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Risk: 9/10
Potential: 8.5/10
I think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a good upside pick. The biggest issue is that his jumpshot is broken. He catapults it from over his head, and his legs jerk forward on the jump.
Otherwise, he is excellent on the defensive side of the 3+D equation. He is long, quick, athletic, and plays with focus and a high defensive IQ. He could be a defensive stopper on the next level.
He is also a great finisher on the fast break, a strong offensive rebounder, and has great promise as passer.
If he reconstructs his jumpshot, he could be a very effective player, with some star potential. However, it will probably take years to build a jumper from scratch. It will probably take him a few years to learn a consistent jumpshot, if it’s even possible. As such, I like Hollis-Jefferson more as a future prospect than a pick because his rookie deal may be over by the time he is able to contribute on offense.
20. Jerian Grant
Risk: 6/10
Potential: 8/10
Excellent size (6’5) and athleticism for a point guard. He is a very unselfish, pure point guard. He can hit the jumpshot, slash to the rim and finish, and pass to open teammates. He does all of these things well and makes fantastic decisions in both transition and the half court.
I think Jerian Grant has decent upside considering his diverse range of skills. He has no obvious weaknesses, aside from his jumpshot. He only shot 30% from 3 in his senior year. This was down from an average of 35% over his NCAA career. There are some issues with his mechanics (holding the ball to the left side of his body) which may be difficult to correct. Furthermore, he is relatively old, as a 23 year old senior. I think this is less of a negative than others might, because he does have a well developed skill set that can translate to the NBA.
I analyzed the draft from a risk / reward perspective. The first section is my overall draft strategy. The second section details risk and reward ratings for my 10 top picks from the draft, with several more profiles as well. [there is a note on my draft philosophy at the end. tl;dr it makes sense to draft for upside and flexibility]
Draft Philosphy:
– To implement a good draft strategy, it is necessary to understand the distribution of player value in the NBA. More than any other major team sport, Basketball is dominated by a handful of elite players, known as superstars or franchise players. In any given year, generally, a team needs to have one of the top 5-10 players in the league in order to compete for a title. They must also have a second player how is at that level, or near it, say top 20. If not, they need 2-3 other star quality players, perhaps top 40 in the league.
This year, the players in this elite category were Lebron, Durant, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Stephen Curry, James Harden, and an argument could be made for Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, Carmelo, and Westbrook.
You will notice that I have not included any members of the Spurs in this group. They are perhaps the rare championship team who does not need a superstar. Conversely, you can argue that they have an abundance of stars, with Duncan, Parker, Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard all within the top 30-40 players in the league. This goes without mentioning Marco Bellinelli, Boris Diaw, and Patty Mills, who were all elite performers off the bench. Add Coach Poppovich to the mix, and the lack of a top 10 player is less important.
– To get one of these top players, a team must either get a top 3 pick and draft a generational talent, or pick a player with superstar potential and hope they pan out.
– There are very few superstar players. They are extremely scarce. Conversely, league average players are highly abundant
– Since the payoff of hitting a home run is so much higher than being correct on an above average starter, it makes sense for teams lean towards players with very high potential, rather than going with the safe pick. At the end of a rookie contract, player has zero value if they drop out of the league. Due to opportunity costs, the player still has zero value to the team if they are merely league average, because the team can just as easily replace them through free agency.
– In conclusion, a good strategy will always target players with very high potential.
– Sam Presti has a great record or drafting this way. He took Russell Westbrook, who had not shown an ability to shoot or play the PG position, but was off the charts as an athlete and competitor. Then he took Serge Ibaka, a relativel unknown player from the Congo who was extremely athletic and a potential shot blocker. James Harden was a safer pick, but one still loaded with upside. Since then, they’ve drafted Reggie Jackson, Perry Jones, Steve Adams, and Jeremy Lamb. All players with the highest possible upside. Many people say that Presti is lucky, but I think he has simply executed a great strategy.
– Another example of this strategy was Kevin Pritchard with the Portland Trail Blazers. He drafted a team featuring Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Nicolas Batum. Although we know in hindsight that two of these players had career ending injuries, at the time of the draft it was only Brandon Roy whose injury concerns were documented. Even though Roy succumbed to his injuries, it was still a great pick, as Roy was one of the best scorers in the league during his years in Portland.
Notes on risk:
– Position makes a big difference. A SG has to shoot the ball well, same with a SF. Whereas, a Center needs to either rebound and play defense, or be a dominant post scorer. A PG needs to either shoot the lights out and be a scorer, or be a great penetrator and passer and defender (with a shot that could be average)
– Another reason that postion makes a big difference is positional scarcity. There is an absurd abundance of point guard talent in the league, with very few elite shooting guards. Point guards are doing more of the shooting and scoring these days, and the importance of shooting has allowed NBA teams to play 3pt specialists instead of the more athletic slashing wing players.
– It’s better to be quite good in many areas (rebounding, passing, shooting, defensive positioning, offensive awareness, defensive awareness). Why? diversification. 1) Its easier to move from a 7/10 to a 9/10 in a particular skillset, than from a 5/10 to an 8/10. 2) the risk of the diversified player never being able to pick up one of those skills is not as big a problem. If you select a great offensive player who is terrible on defense, then they MUST figure out that skill. If not, the player may be out of the league, or only useful as a 3pt specialist. Whereas, the diversified player might still be average at that skill, even if they never improve
– Certain stats translate better to the NBA than other stats. Rebounding stats translate very well to the NBA. Steals and blocks are highly correlated with success in the NBA (because they also correlate with athleticism).. A player with good FT% has a much better probability of developing a consistent jump shot, than a player with a poor FT%
– Shooting is probably the most important skill in today’s NBA. A player like Matt Bonner can survive in the league by being an elite 3pt shooter, with no other skills above average. A players inability to shoot can jeopardize the entire offense in today’s NBA. Players like Tony Allen, MKG, and to a lesser extent Ricky Rubio (b/c he’s a great passing PG) are practicaly unplayable at times because the defense sags off them so much. To some degree, the Spurs took the same approach with Wade in this years Finals, challenging him to shoot. A great shooter, who plays below average defense, can often be hidden in the defensive rotations. The Golden State Warriors made tremendous strides because Klay Thompson improved from below average to above average defense, while Curry is still not a good defender.
– Injury risk is highly dependent on position and type of injury. Embiid’s situation is particularly scary because the outcome of navicular injuries has very often been career ending for centers. Embiid also has a back injury, which is another common problem for centers. A player like Stephen Curry, who has a very weak ankle, is known as injury plagued, but it’s the type of injury that he is able to play through, or return within a week or 2 to an elite level.
Notes on Potential:
– potential looks at the players best foreseeable outcome, but it also factors in probability of reaching that potential, to some degree.
– size and athelticism are major factors in potential because skills have a chance of being learnt, but you can’t teach height. Similarly, you can’t teach quickness. Often, you cannot teach body control and coordination either, as some people are simply gifted with proprioception.
– Potential involves a judgement on which things the player is capable of changing, and whether they will take steps to make the change.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 06/25/2015 - 11:53am #994339

tblazer_NZParticipantthat is an awefully long post
0 - Posted on: Thu, 06/25/2015 - 11:53am #994480

tblazer_NZParticipantthat is an awefully long post
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