[r377Participant]

When it comes to reviewing draft classes its not so much the superstars but the depth of the class and how many total busts there were also.

I think to play 400 NBA games is officially a career – you have "made it in the NBA"  Thats about 5 or 6 seasons.  Sure they may not be starters but just contributing and being servicable for 400 games in the best league in the world is quite an achievement.

Each class has its own sob story – career ending injuries, deaths, drug/alcohol probs.  So to be fair to all classes I have included them into the results.

400 being the magic number. First Round picks only. I have also predicted some of the later drafts.

1990:  13/27 didn’t make it

1991: 12/27 didn’t make it

1992:  6/27 didn’t make it

1993:  11/27 didn’t make it

1994:  12/27 didn’t make it

1995:  9/28 didn’t make it

1996:  9/28 didn’t make it

1997:  9/28 didn’t make it

1998:  9/29 didn’t make it

1999:  11/29 didn’t make it

2000:   13/29 didn’t make it

2001:   9/29 didn’t make it

2002:  15/28 didn’t make it

2003:  7/29 didn’t make it

2004:  8/29 didn’t make it

2005:  9/29 didn’t make it (assuming Diogu, Head and Petro make 400)

2006:  11/29 didn’t make it

2007:  8-10/29 prob won’t make it.

2008:  very hard to predict but looks good so far. maybe only 6-9/29 may not make it

 

As you can see approx a third of all first rounders selected won’t live up to draft day expectations and be out of the league in a few years.  I may be harsh in my mocks but this is reality…

Look at 2002 – more than half didn’t have successful careers…

1992 had the top 3 of Shaq, Mourning and Sprewell but had alot of quality solid starters/servicable players that could get you double figure points and contribute to their teams…

 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

But your execution is a little off. I give you props for trying to measure depth in a unique way, but it would be better if you maybe charted the players who did not "make it". I also think "sob stories" is kind of a cold way of looking at it, some players get really badly hurt and can not play at the level they are used to playing at. That is a tough pill to swallow for anyone who plays competitive sports. To me, their is a big difference between players who play below expectation, yet have longevity or players who had their careers derailed due to injury. I mean, I give Tony Battie props for having a long career, but I am guessing that their have been some guys with shorter careers who played at a much higher level.

I believe the average NBA career is around 6 seasons. That would add up to 492 games (though probably less as players rarely make it through 6 full seasons without missing games). I think your 400 game count is probably a good start, and I understand that this is a difficult endeavor, but it is really difficult to get a lot from your cold hard numbers. Percentages probably would have been nice as well. Looking at it I am guessing that approximately 35% or so do not make it to the 400 game plateau out of first round picks. Hence, if you are above, below or near average, it would be a good way to measure the classes depth.

Here is a list posted by 82games.com on draft depth. It basically took into account the averages by pick and it also looks at which drafts were best at the top measuring the top 10 picks. Obviously the last few drafts were far behind as far as games played and other statistics, but it should catch up. Just shows a different type of depth measurement:

http://www.82games.com/bestnbadraftyear.htm

[i’m jus so offendedParticipant]

yeah dude sob stories is straight cold blooded, how bout unfortunate occurances or just even sad stories would better….you rick james homie

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