[MrManalo43Participant]

 http://www.nba.com/2014/news/02/28/pelicans-holiday-out-for-season.ap/index.html

Apparently Holiday is out for the rest of the season due to surgery on his leg. Not to mention Anderson also being out as well. note-worthy is the ingury prone-ness of Davis (shoulder problems, even though he’s in the game against the suns right now), Evans and Gordon are very injury prone.

With that being said, how much higher or lower is the Protected pick going to be for the Sixers? or worse (sixers fan, over here…) it falls into the top 5…

 

 

 

[CrossyboyParticipant]

Looking at the standings, New Orleans are currently 23-35.  The 5th bottom-placed team, Sacramento are 20-38.  If Sacramento keep winning/losing at the current rate & no other bottom-feeder goes on a big run, then New Orleans would need to win 6 of their next 24 games (25%) of their remaining games for Philly to keep the pick.

My guess is that Philly keeps the pick, but instead of 11th as currently predicted, it rises to 7th or 8th.  Assuming they get Wiggins with their own pick, does this change who they’d go for with the NO pick?  I had them pegged for LaVine at 11, with Hairston in the 2nd round to back him up, but would you now go for a more sure-fire thing?

Do they package this pick with 1 or more 2nd rounders for 2 first rounders?  With young, potential packed players like LaVine & Gordon available 11-20 & promising Euro bigs like Nurkic & Capela placed in the late first they could potentially get the player they originally wanted & get another prospect or draft’n’stash player.

Personally, I’d rather have LaVine & Gordon, than Marcus Smart/Gary Harris/Rodney Hood.

[burgessfourParticipant]

I agree, look at the standings. N.O. is currently tied for 9th with Detroit. For N.O. to get to 5th worst, Detroit PLUS 4 of the 8 teams below them would have to pass them. I think we can safely say Mil. & Philly (my team) aren’t going anywhere. N.O. is 6 games better than Orlando, but Orlando may actually pass them, they’ve played a lot better since Vucevic came back from being injured. So, in addition to Orlando, 3 of LA, Bos, Sac, NY, Utah would have to pass N.O. I think that’s pretty unlikely. In the event N.O. is 5th worst going into the lottery, 4 out of the last 8 years the 5th team has moved down to 6th or 7th.

I agree with Crossboy, I see the pick ending up with the Sixers at 7 or 8.

Would they trade down for multiple 1st round picks ? Chicago may have at 16 & 19. Phoenix may have 18, 21 & 30.
It’s usually VERY expensive to move up even 3-4 spots in round 1.

[Scott42444Participant]

 Yeah, I can’t get a read on the cost of moving up or down.  The way GM’s are hoarding picks, not just lottery picks but ALL picks, I am starting to think that unless there is a franchise changer (that a team has pegged) that teams would rather have potential starters under salary control (multiple picks) than to take one guy that is potential fringe all-star.  Note that I said "fringe" all-star, which many times is just a very good starter who has a career year and gets voted in.  Many players that never make an all-star team make as many contributions to teams as a guy who makes one or two, but having them under team control at a reduced, rookie salary is sometimes more important to franchises trying to duck and cover from the luxury tax.  Especially my favorite team, the Bulls, I worry that they would NOT trade up because they would rather have 2 picks.

[Scott42444Participant]

 Yeah, I can’t get a read on the cost of moving up or down.  The way GM’s are hoarding picks, not just lottery picks but ALL picks, I am starting to think that unless there is a franchise changer (that a team has pegged) that teams would rather have potential starters under salary control (multiple picks) than to take one guy that is potential fringe all-star.  Note that I said "fringe" all-star, which many times is just a very good starter who has a career year and gets voted in.  Many players that never make an all-star team make as many contributions to teams as a guy who makes one or two, but having them under team control at a reduced, rookie salary is sometimes more important to franchises trying to duck and cover from the luxury tax.  Especially my favorite team, the Bulls, I worry that they would NOT trade up because they would rather have 2 picks.

[burgessfourParticipant]

I agree, look at the standings. N.O. is currently tied for 9th with Detroit. For N.O. to get to 5th worst, Detroit PLUS 4 of the 8 teams below them would have to pass them. I think we can safely say Mil. & Philly (my team) aren’t going anywhere. N.O. is 6 games better than Orlando, but Orlando may actually pass them, they’ve played a lot better since Vucevic came back from being injured. So, in addition to Orlando, 3 of LA, Bos, Sac, NY, Utah would have to pass N.O. I think that’s pretty unlikely. In the event N.O. is 5th worst going into the lottery, 4 out of the last 8 years the 5th team has moved down to 6th or 7th.

I agree with Crossboy, I see the pick ending up with the Sixers at 7 or 8.

Would they trade down for multiple 1st round picks ? Chicago may have at 16 & 19. Phoenix may have 18, 21 & 30.
It’s usually VERY expensive to move up even 3-4 spots in round 1.

[CrossyboyParticipant]

Looking at the standings, New Orleans are currently 23-35.  The 5th bottom-placed team, Sacramento are 20-38.  If Sacramento keep winning/losing at the current rate & no other bottom-feeder goes on a big run, then New Orleans would need to win 6 of their next 24 games (25%) of their remaining games for Philly to keep the pick.

My guess is that Philly keeps the pick, but instead of 11th as currently predicted, it rises to 7th or 8th.  Assuming they get Wiggins with their own pick, does this change who they’d go for with the NO pick?  I had them pegged for LaVine at 11, with Hairston in the 2nd round to back him up, but would you now go for a more sure-fire thing?

Do they package this pick with 1 or more 2nd rounders for 2 first rounders?  With young, potential packed players like LaVine & Gordon available 11-20 & promising Euro bigs like Nurkic & Capela placed in the late first they could potentially get the player they originally wanted & get another prospect or draft’n’stash player.

Personally, I’d rather have LaVine & Gordon, than Marcus Smart/Gary Harris/Rodney Hood.

[HitsterParticipant]

 Taking out the Bucks and Philly plus Orlando there are 7 teams with between 20 and 23 wins plus Cleveland on 24 and Denver who are 1-9 recently on 25 wins. With Orlando looking more solid recently as Burgessfour rightly says above there are 10 teams who could converge potentially for the 3rd worse record.

I’d take Cleveland out the mix as they seem to be improving and trying to make the 8th seeding, so we will see a lot of teams at the 30 to 32 win number come the end of the season. Tie breaks could well sort the draft positions and we could see the lottery potentially rescuing a pick back to a team like NOP or giving someone like Denver a nice boost if their pick for that from the Knicks moves up.

 

[HitsterParticipant]

 Taking out the Bucks and Philly plus Orlando there are 7 teams with between 20 and 23 wins plus Cleveland on 24 and Denver who are 1-9 recently on 25 wins. With Orlando looking more solid recently as Burgessfour rightly says above there are 10 teams who could converge potentially for the 3rd worse record.

I’d take Cleveland out the mix as they seem to be improving and trying to make the 8th seeding, so we will see a lot of teams at the 30 to 32 win number come the end of the season. Tie breaks could well sort the draft positions and we could see the lottery potentially rescuing a pick back to a team like NOP or giving someone like Denver a nice boost if their pick for that from the Knicks moves up.

 

[PhillytheKid]

just balled out against Pheonix (Dragic is one of my favorite players to watch, maybe because he’s underrated and not overhyped by NBA hype machine).  I don’t think they’ll be dipping into bottom 5.  They’ve been without Jrue for a while, and Jrue I don’t think adds mcuh since they are loaded with guards.  The kid Rivers looked surprisingly good yesterday.

 

I do like the idea of moving up from 8 – 11, if that gets you another pick in the first round.

 

But who would Pheonix or Chicago really want moving up 3 spots? Is Hood worth giving up a first round pick?  You guys know how I feel about Gary Harris.

If you can move up and grab Gordon/Capela/Payne late in the first round and risk moving from 8 to 11, I’d do it.

Otherwise, unless Vonleh drops (i have him going 5 or 6), there really is no incentive to trade up.  I’d rather do the sure thing and take Lavine at 8.  

I’d try to trade Thad Young to OKC plus a 2nd rounder to move into the 1st round, and take one of the listed PF and sign another PF via free agency.  

MCW/Lavine/Wiggins/Noel/that elusive 4.

Can we get Dragic please? 

[burgessfourParticipant]

Either Chicago or Phoenix would have to move up a lot to get the N.O. pick from the Sixers, not just 3 spots. Honestly, I don’t know who they would be targeting, but all it would take is for either GM to “fall in love” within a player projected to go in the 7-10 range. It can happen. As Scott42444 notes, the value of round 1 picks has really changed the last year or so, so it’s hard to get a read on what it would take to move from 16ish to the 7-10 range. Just a few years ago it was very expensive just to move 3-4 spots in the top half of the first round. Now it seems quantity of picks is gaining value on quality of picks.

With Hinkie calling the shots for the Sixers it’s pretty certain he’ll do something draft night.

[burgessfourParticipant]

Either Chicago or Phoenix would have to move up a lot to get the N.O. pick from the Sixers, not just 3 spots. Honestly, I don’t know who they would be targeting, but all it would take is for either GM to “fall in love” within a player projected to go in the 7-10 range. It can happen. As Scott42444 notes, the value of round 1 picks has really changed the last year or so, so it’s hard to get a read on what it would take to move from 16ish to the 7-10 range. Just a few years ago it was very expensive just to move 3-4 spots in the top half of the first round. Now it seems quantity of picks is gaining value on quality of picks.

With Hinkie calling the shots for the Sixers it’s pretty certain he’ll do something draft night.

[PhillytheKid]

just balled out against Pheonix (Dragic is one of my favorite players to watch, maybe because he’s underrated and not overhyped by NBA hype machine).  I don’t think they’ll be dipping into bottom 5.  They’ve been without Jrue for a while, and Jrue I don’t think adds mcuh since they are loaded with guards.  The kid Rivers looked surprisingly good yesterday.

 

I do like the idea of moving up from 8 – 11, if that gets you another pick in the first round.

 

But who would Pheonix or Chicago really want moving up 3 spots? Is Hood worth giving up a first round pick?  You guys know how I feel about Gary Harris.

If you can move up and grab Gordon/Capela/Payne late in the first round and risk moving from 8 to 11, I’d do it.

Otherwise, unless Vonleh drops (i have him going 5 or 6), there really is no incentive to trade up.  I’d rather do the sure thing and take Lavine at 8.  

I’d try to trade Thad Young to OKC plus a 2nd rounder to move into the 1st round, and take one of the listed PF and sign another PF via free agency.  

MCW/Lavine/Wiggins/Noel/that elusive 4.

Can we get Dragic please? 

[Author]

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