[TyroberParticipant]

I want to start off by saying I believe there are 9 teams that deserve to be a lock to make the playoffs. Unfortunately we all know there will be a solid team that will have to miss the playoffs, but that is just how it works in the Western Conference. Injuries are part of the game and when every game matters they could change everything.

 1. Thunder – They are still the team to beat in the West even without James Harden. They will miss his play making ability, but they basically traded him for two very talented rookies in Jones and Lamb who should get a decent amount of minutes from the start, Martin a great scorer who should excel with Westbrook and Durant, and Maynor is coming back from a injury and is a great backup PG.

2. Lakers – Big and Strong. Nash, Kobe, Gasol, and Dwight will be enough to beat most teams on most nights, but the bench is quite weak. They are still talented enough to overcome this and in the playoffs it won’t matter as much, but the Lakers aren’t very young and the bench will need to play more in the regular season than the playoffs and that could cost them the #1 seed.

3. Spurs – Almost underrated always a great team. This is the same team that won the most games in the West last year and they will be right back up there. They have just the right mix of talented veterans and young talented players.

4. Clippers – They got extremely deep over the offseason and will be quite good. The west is so top heavy it’s crazy, but the Clippers will be a tough out for everyone. 5 years ago this could have been a number #1 seed team, but the west is scary deep.

5. Nuggets – They have a bench that could start for most teams. Lawon, Iggy, Chandler, Gallo, McGee. That is a crazy talented team and could have 0 allstars as well as 3 allstars representing Denver which is simply mindblowing.

6. Grizzlies – Memphis is a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. They have enough size to mess with any team and a couple of good, but not great wing players. If Gay can take another step this is a tough tough team. How awesome would it be if the Spurs and Grizzlies squared off the first round again?

7. Mavericks – They are going to start out the year injured and with a little drama thanks to West, but this team will be right there in the playoffs by the seasons end. Kaman, Dirk, Marion, Mayo, and Collison is a very talented bunch to have out on the court.

8. This last spot comes down to the Jazz, Wolves, and Warriors in my opinion. Warriors have the most to overcome and have been hurt with injuries for what seems like forever. They are talented, but it seems they are a few better teams than them. With a healthy Love and Rubio I dont see how anyone could keep this team from the playoffs, but with their two best players injuried it could cost them severely. The final couple of spots in the West will come down to the wire and literally every single game will matter. Kanter and Favors are already looking like they will have huge years in Utah which means Jefferson or Milsap should be traded for another solid wing player and that’s only going to help this team. The Wolves deserve to make the playoffs, but ultimately I believe the couple of games where having Love + Rubio on the court would have won them the game will let the Jazz sneak in ahead of them with a better record of 1-2 games.

[dmo21Participant]

I agree that those first 6 are locks unless a huge injury happens to them. I don’t agree that Dallas is a lock tho, I really don’t like the makeup of this team this year (old/injured big men, lack luster wings, young point guard, and no bench). I would group Dallas with Utah, Minnesota, and Golden State with them all vying for those last 2 playoff spots. These 4 teams are dependent on guys who had bad years last year and guys who are often injured. If they were all healthy, I’d rank per position like this:

PG: Rubio>Curry>Collison>Williams

SG: Thompson>Mayo>Hayward>Roy?

SF: Kirilenko>Barnes>Marion>Williams

PF: Love>Nowitzki>Millsap>Lee

C: Bogut>Jefferson>Pekovic>Kaman

All these teams have the same positional strengths and weaknesses. I think it’s going to be a tough race for those last 2 spots.

[kobyzParticipant]

Dallas is a lock, trust me! when the last time they missed the po season? they have very strong team structure and system, know how to produce the best from their players and being successful.

[kobyzParticipant]

i have Portland as my darkhorse for the 8th seed, i think they would have great season for the expectation, LaMarcus Aldridge will take another step forward and will establish himself as a superstar player(will be second all nba team imo), Damian Lillard will have breakout rookie year as a leader and great sidekick for la, they will play as a team with bunch of nice role player contribute(also J.J. Hickson will be pleasant surprise).

[stepback3Participant]

Portlands my team but we have NO bench.

[dmo21Participant]

Teams change, just because they make playoffs a bunch of years in a row does not mean it’s guaranteed the next year. The Mavs didnt revamp their roster with guys you know who will be good, they restocked it with guys who had down years and could possibly breakout (Collison, Mayo, Kaman). Also, their go to guy is aging and will have to play big minutes as they have no bench and very little size. I’m not guaranteeing that Dallas will miss the playoffs, but I think they will need a lot of things to go right and will still be battling those other 3 teams for those last 2 spots. 

[kobyzParticipant]

you wanna make a bet they making the playoff?

[bloodshyParticipant]

This team is expertly managed and seems to always exceed expectations. The Jazz have had a losing record only twice in the last 29 years, once after losing Stockton/Malone and two years ago after the DWill/Sloan implosion. They have only missed the playoffs 4 times over that span. Only the Lakers and Spurs have been more consistent.

This year, in particular, there is reason to believe the Jazz will easily make the playoffs.

First, their depth is only rivaled by Denver. They have 4 bigs that would start on almost any other team. Jeremy Evans, who would get major minutes on many teams, is the Jazz 5th big. And they have depth at the wing too. They have three players that can effectively play the 5 and at least 4 players that can effectively play every other position. Most of their second stringers would start on most teams (Foye, Burks, Favors, Kanter). No single injury will slow them much, though it would be devestating to every other team listed as competing for the 7-8 spots.

Second, they have a balanced offense. Last season they went 36-30 pounding the ball down low virtually every play. Teams knew the Jazz wouldn’t shoot from deep and clogged the paint constantly–and the Jazz were still able to muscle their way into the 8th seed. The Jazz best 3-point shooter was ranked #76 in the NBA last year. This year they have 3 players from last year’s top 40 and in the pre-season the Jazz have led the NBA in 3-point percentage. They now have two starters (Mo and Marvin Williams) who shoot 40% from deep. Teams can no longer clog the paint on these guys. This offense is going to shock people over the next two months.

Third, their D will be much better. Last season DHarris was a swinging door at the top of the key. Raja Bell’s lost speed made him terrible at the 2 and teams were able to post players up against Hayward at the 3 effectively. With the addition of Mo and Marvin, all of that changes. Mo Williams is no Tony Allen, but he’s an above average man defender at the 1, which is a huge upgrade over Harris. Hayward was excellent on D when playing the 2 last year. This year that’s where he’ll be almost exclusively. Marvin also had great stats on D at the 3. In Atlanta he played about half of his time out of position at the 4/5, where his stats were not as stellar. Fortunately, he’ll be at the 3 all season in Utah. Having a 6’8 SG and a 6’9 SF will give opponents problems on the wing. And then comes Favors, Utah’s one truly elite defender. Unfortunately, Big Al will still likely fail on rotation off the P&R, but overall there will be improvement.

Considering the depth, balance, and management, I would be surprised if the Jazz ended below Minn, GS or Dallas. I think it’s more likely that they’ll be competing with Denver or Memphis for a spot in the 5-6 range. Time will tell, but I expect this year to be like every other year, with the Jazz performing substantially better than most people are projecting.

[TyroberParticipant]

 I agree bloodshy. I wanted to put them at the 6 or 7 seed, but I want to see what moves they make. It makes a lot of since to trade Milsap or Jefferson for a wing.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

1. Spurs – Never the sexy pick, but I thought they were the best team in basketball last season. Timmy and Manu are old, but Parker is in his prime. Expect him to have another MVP type season. They have the best coach in the NBA in my opinion.

2. Lakers – I wouldn’t be surprised if they started slow, but I expect them to be rolling soon. They were a great defensive team last season and will be an amazing defensive team this season with Dwight in the middle. Offense will come along.

3. Thunder – I believe the trade of Harden hurts their chemistry and takes away their best decision maker with the ball in his hands. People say the trade gives them future flexibility, but the goal is to win now. Regardless, I expect MVP seasons from Durant and Westbrook, so they’ll be in competition for a championship.

4. Grizzlies – Gay and Randolph finally get a full training camp and pre-season with each other. This team plays great inside outside ball and if they stick to it, they’ll be tough to beat. They make games ugly on defense, which you love.

5. Clippers – They’re deep, but it’s still CP3 or bust to me. Griffin needs to take his game up a notch or two.

6. Nuggets – They’re deep and are arguably the fastest team in the NBA, but they can’t defend. Hopefully, Iggy can change that culture somewhat.

7. Jazz – One of the better big man rotations in the league. All of their young players are a year older and I really feel they addressed their shooting needs this off-season. I really like this team, but they’re still a team that won’t get out of the first round.

8. Mavs – They’ll stay in contention while Dirk is out. Hopefully, Kaman isn’t out for too long because Eddy Curry starting is depressing.

[the27guyParticipant]

Excellent analysis Bloodshy.

 

I don’t understand those that are putting Utah on the bubble. Let’s look at the facts-

 

1. They made the playoffs last year. And were actually in the running for the 4-5 seed until the last 3 weeks of the season.

2. They exchanged their starting PG, who had serious issues with the Head Coach, Devin Harris, along with CJ Miles, and Raja Bell (in other words…. a bunch of crap) for Marvin Williams, Mo Williams and Randy Foye. I get it, we didn’t get three all stars. But all three can contribute, provide toughness, and shooting. They’re better than the other 3. Period.

3. None of the Jazz major contributors is past their prime. Meaning, none of them should decline this year from last year.

4. This is the Head Coaches first full year with a proper training camp.

5. 4 major contributors from last year (Burks, Hayward, Favors, and Kanter) all are entering their 2nd or 3rd year, meaning that they are still in their prime years of improvement. Kanter might have been the MVP of the preseason.

6. The team is absolutely one of the deepest teams in the league. 

With all that said, how can people put them on the bubble? I get it, Dallas has Dirk. But who else do they have that you can really count on? Heck, you couldn’t even count on Dirk last year! I’ll be shocked if the Mavs can get to the playoffs this year. If OJ Mayo plays All-Star ball, then maybe. But that seems unlikely.

Here’s my regular season rankings–

1. OKC

2. San Antonio

3. Lakers

4. Denver

5. Utah

6. Grizzlies

7. Clippers

8. Rockets

 

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