[TomShoeParticipant]

 So, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for shits and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for Oct. 5 (Celtics vs. Fenerbach Ulker), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.

Right now, we’ll be starting with the Miami Heat, with the OKC Thunder coming later tonight.

– TomAdidas

PROJECTED STARTERS

 

 

MARIO CHALMERS, PG

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

13.1

3.7

5.1

12.8

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Spot-up shooting point guard who rarely penetrates. Good 3-point shooter.

+ Subpar ballhandler prone to wild turnovers. Professionalism a concern.

+ Good size for guard and great hands, but lacks great quickness. Foul prone.

 

Analysis

Chalmers finally became the player Miami needed him to be last season, taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc and nailing 38.8 percent to post the sixth-best true shooting percentage among point guards. That’s what the Heat required — a low-usage, high-efficiency sniper — and he built on it by also having one of the best 2-point shooting marks (51.6 percent) at his position.

Chalmers is still nobody’s idea of a point guard, inexplicably having one of the worst turnover rates at his position despite being asked to do very little ball-handling and creating, but on this team his skill set fits as long as he’s making jumpers. He’s a solid candidate to regress, unfortunately, as he’d never shot this well before.

Defensively, Chalmers has always had decent size and excellent hands (11th at his position in steals per minute), but last season was the first where you could say he was a plus overall. The Heat gave up 3.8 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, opposing point guards had a 14.6 PER against him according to 82games.com, and Synergy placed him in the top half of point guards. Fast point guards still give him fits, but overall he did solid work.

 

DWYANE WADE, SG

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

25.8

6.0

5.4

24.8

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Electrifying wing with blinding quickness, long arms and quick leaping ability.

+ Great at splitting pick-and-rolls. Poor shooter but draws heaps of fouls with fakes.

+ Ball-hawking defender but gambles too much. Amazing shot-blocker for his size.

 

Analysis

Wade is 6-foot-4, but he doesn’t play anything like his size. Look just at his stats and you’d think he was a power forward — Wade’s rates of blocked shots, free throws and shots in the basket area seems much more in line with that position than his own, while he also punches far above his weight as a rebounder.

In particular, Wade’s rate of 1.51 blocks per 40 minutes was simply amazing — every other player with that high a rate was at least three inches taller. Meanwhile, he combined those skills with the quickness of a point guard, ranking fifth at his position in steals per minute and 15th in pure point rating. Alas, the other area where he acted like a big man was in transition defense, where Wade often lumbered back slowly.

Offensively, Wade pretty much ditched the 3-pointer and focused on his midrange game last season, and the change helped: He hit 42.3 percent of his long 2s. Unfortunately his true shooting percentage still fell because he drew dramatically fewer fouls than a year earlier. Wade’s free-throw rate was still among the best in the game, but at 30 years old this may be the first sign that he’s starting to lose some of his burst.

Not that he’s lost much: He still led all shooting guards in PER and ranked third overall. But he needed his knee drained to get through the season and had surgery on it afterward, and the Heat kept him to 49 games and 33 minutes per contest. His physical frailty may be one of the bigger obstacles to the Heat repeating.

 

LeBRON JAMES, SF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

28.4

8.3

7.3

29.7

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Bruising wing with a point guard’s handle and a center’s body. Deadly at rim.

+ Solid outside shooter who has added left-block post game. Can pass and create.

+ Outstanding rebounder. Excellent defensive player who can guard 1 through 5.

 

Analysis

LeBron James was only 18th among small forwards in offensive rebound rate, barely placing him in the top third at his position. He really needs to work on that.

Otherwise:

• He led the league in PER, with one of the highest marks of all time. 

• He was first among SFs in shooting percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, and usage rate. 

• He was second at his position in points per minute, TS%, and defensive rebound rate. 

• He was third in pure point rating, free-throw rate, and overall rebound rate. 

• He had the fourth-lowest foul rate among SFs, and yet was fifth in steals per minute.

James nearly led the NBA in shooting percentage at the rim (see chart), at a phenomenal 75.4 percent, and took more shots there than all but four players. He added a post game, improved his floater, and made his midrange jumpers. As a result he was fourth in the league in shooting from 3-to-15 feet.

Top shooting percentage at the rim, 2011-12

 

Player Team FG%

Tyson Chandler NY 75.8

LeBron James Mia 75.4

Andre Iguodala Phi 75.2

Dwight Howard Orl 74.4

Blake Griffin LAC 73.7

Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.com

Want more? He shot 3-pointers better than the league average for the first time in his career and set career highs in true shooting percentage, rebound rate, and shooting percentage. He won MVP of the Finals and hit the biggest shot of the season while fighting off leg cramps; before that, in a seven-game conference finals against the league’s best defensive team, he averaged 33.6 points on 52.7 percent shooting.

 

James defended all five positions, many times in the same game, and defended all of them well. Opposing small forwards had just a 10.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com

About the only thing I could genuinely criticize is his 77.1 free-throw percentage, which was slightly below the average for small forwards. Otherwise he had a decent year.

 

SHANE BATTIER, SF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

8.4

4.4

2.3

9.4

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Heady defender who takes advantage of length and rarely makes mistakes.

+ Good corner 3-point shooter but has a slow, low release. Good at post entry.

+ Can’t create at all but can make hooks from post. Has the size to play 4 in stretches.

 

Analysis

Battier was great in the Finals, but what made that so surprising was his fairly abysmal regular season. He shot just 38.7 percent, rebounded like a guard, and scored an anemic 8.3 points per 40 minutes.

Most of his shots were 3s, but he made just 33.9 percent from deep and hardly ever got to the cup, earning only 37 free-throw attempts the entire season. As a result, his true shooting percentage was below the league average — not a great result for a low-usage floor-spacer. Battier’s only positive offensive contributions were his passing and avoidance of turnovers; he finished eighth among small forwards in pure point rating.

Defensively, Battier had more zip, but again his regular season paled next to his postseason. He ranked among the top dozen small forwards in both blocks and steals, but the Heat defended slightly better with him off the court — the first time in eons we’ve been able to say that about Battier — and Synergy rated him in the middle of the pack among small forwards.

And while Battier hurt the Thunder in the Finals, up ’til that point his playoffs had been pretty humdrum too. Through the first three rounds, his shooting and scoring rates were even worse than in the regular season.

Even at that production level, Battier has his uses as a multi-position defender and quasi-floor spacer. But the Heat should be wary of further slippage from the 33-year-old and can’t overreact to a particularly well-timed five-game stretch of quality.

 

CHRIS BOSH, PF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

19.9

9.4

2.1

18.6

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Lanky, left-handed, high-scoring forward who can shoot, drive and finish.

+ Excels at taking opposing bigs off dribble to draw fouls. Has 3-point range.

+ Mobile defender who has vastly improved. Lacks strength. Rarely fouls.

 

Analysis

Bosh’s scoring and rebounding numbers took a hit when he came to Miami, with the rebounding drop in particular proving confounding. But one area where he hasn’t received enough credit is his defense. Bosh basically switched to being a full-time 5 in the playoffs despite his lack of muscle and handled the job admirably. Meanwhile, he was a defensive force all season because of his improved focus combined with tremendous mobility for his size.

For the year Bosh rated among the top 10 defensive bigs in the league, according to Synergy. Opposing centers had only a 12.4 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Heat gave up 1.3 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. This is the Bosh we didn’t see in Toronto, although to be fair he had a lot less help up there.

Offensively, Bosh was vitally important for Miami as well, providing the spacing and scoring threat that Miami’s other bigs couldn’t. Bosh shot 66.5 percent in the basket area with a high free-throw rate, but just as potent was his 42.3 percent mark on jumpers beyond 10 feet. Bosh even hit 10 3-pointers, and then added a few more to beat Boston in Game 7 of the conference finals.

The other notable facet of Bosh’s game is how rarely he fouls. Only four power forwards were whistled less than his 2.55 personals per 40 minutes, despite the fact he played center nearly as often as the 4. As a result, he’s able to stay on the court — and impact the game — for much longer stretches than most bigs.

 

 

RESERVES

 

 

RAY ALLEN, SG

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

14.7

3.7

2.9

13.2

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ All-time great outside shooter who excels at moving off screens for jumpers.

+ Average athlete but has good handle for his size. Subpar defender but competes.

+ Money foul shooter. Rarely creates for self. Outstanding conditioning.

 

Analysis

The shift to Miami may come at a perfect time for Allen. Last season he did the same things he’s always done, he just did them less often — his usage rate was a career low and he averaged just 16.7 points per 40 minutes as a result. But unlike Boston, the Heat don’t need Allen to create shots, just to knock down the wide-open ones that James and Wade create for him.

The evidence he can do that is overwhelming. Last season was his fourth straight with a true shooting percentage in the 60s, placing him fourth among shooting guards in 2011-12. Nearly half his shots were 3s and he nailed 45.3 percent. For good measure he hit 91.5 percent from the line, although his free throw rate was down from in previous seasons.

Allen only made 37.7 percent of his long 2s — a shot he may rarely take this season — and had just 53 buckets at the rim the entire season, but his ball-handling numbers remained solid and his rebound rate was passable too.

Defensively, Allen competes but he’s tailed off. Boston allowed 5.2 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and while that isn’t entirely connected just to him, the uptick when Avery Bradley replaced him was immediately noticeable. Having LeBron and Wade around will spare him the tougher defensive matchups, however, and he’s a solid team defender.

 

UDONIS HASLEM, PF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

10.0

11.7

1.0

11.1

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Tough, smart, pick-and-pop power forward whose jump shot abandoned him.

+ Not a great athlete but a solid, low-mistake defender. Rarely creates own shot.

+ Limited post game. Undersized 4 but strong, physical. Good rebounder for size.

 

Analysis

Haslem’s pick-and-pop game lost its pop last season. He has normally feasted on midrange jump shots, but last season he converted only 35.5 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, a development that left him without much of a role offensively. Haslem had the eighth-worst true shooting percentage at his position and an unusually high turnover rate for a catch-and-shoot player, leaving him both a low-usage and a low-efficiency proposition.

On the other hand, one thing Haslem did well was rebound. He finished seventh among power forwards in rebound rate, including third on the defensive glass, and that’s mostly an effort thing for the undersized Haslem.

Haslem also did a lot of dirty work in the frontcourt, even moving to center at times and holding his own at 6-8. I’ve felt his D has been overrated in the past, but last season was pure quality — Synergy gave him the best rating on the Heat and the sixth-best in the entire league, while the Heat gave up 2.2 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court.

Moreover, there’s a good chance his shooting malaise will recover. Short-term blips in long-range shooting percentages are common, and Haslem still shot 81.4 percent from the line, so clearly the stroke is still there. He’s probably not a starter anymore, but if he goes back to making 15-footers he’ll be a plus off the bench.

 

MIKE MILLER, SF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

10.7

7.2

2.5

10.3

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Big wing with textbook shooting form. Excellent, underrated rebounder.

+ Reluctant shooter who rarely attacks and forces passes. Never draws fouls.

+ Solid defender against most 3s thanks to size, but too slow to defend 2s.

 

Analysis

During the regular season and playoffs, Miller had scored more than 20 points in game just once in his first 120 games with the Miami Heat. In the 121st game, however, he scored 23 points in 23 minutes, making 7 of 8 3-pointers, helping the Heat clinch the NBA title in one of the great performances in NBA playoff annals.

Miller’s outlier was both extreme and extremely well-timed, but shouldn’t distract from the big-picture of his disappointing campaign. He played only 39 games, as his body was clearly breaking down, and had the rather amazing statistic of only taking five free throw attempts the entire season.

Yes, five. Yes, all season. And he didn’t even earn one of them  he got to shoot a technical foul shot against New Orleans.

As the chart shows, Miller was in a league of his own as far as free throw infrequency goes. What the chart doesn’t show is that Miller didn’t have just the lowest mark of any player in 2011-12; he had the lowest mark in the history of the NBA. The previous record-holder, Brad Lohaus in 1995-96, had five free throw attempts in 175 field goal attempts, for a rate of 0.03.

Fewest free throw attempts per field goal attempt, 2011-12

 

Player Team FTA/FGA

Mike Miller Mia 0.02

Troy Murphy LAL 0.05

Matt Bonner SA 0.06

Sasha Pavlovic Bos 0.06

Mike Bibby NY 0.06

Min. 500 minutes

Otherwise, Miller was deadly on 3s (45.3 percent) but again a reluctant participant — only three small forwards had a lower usage rate. He filled out the box score, ranking third in rebound rate, but he so rarely put his deadly shot into action that he was still a net negative offensively. That’s party of what made his outburst in the Finals so shocking — convincing him to shoot the rock was half the battle.

 

 

RASHARD LEWIS, SF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

12.4

6.0

1.5

10.3

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Tall combo forward with deadly corner 3 and effective left-block post game.

+ Subpar ball handler who has lost athleticism. Poor rebounder and finisher.

+ Solid team defender but struggles one-on-one against post-up 4s.

 

Analysis

Lewis looked utterly uninterested in Washington, and that fact was illustrated in his play. An alleged floor-spacer who shoots 16-of-68 on 3s is a bit of a problem, and that was one reason Lewis’s PER dipped into single digits. More encouragingly, the Wizards tried to indulge his left-block post game and that proved effective at times.

Still, this was a brutal campaign any way you slice it. He was below the league median for small forwards in every single metric except rebound rate (by a whisker) and free throw percentage. Washington played substantially better defense with him off the floor; in fact, we should all make a pact that he never tries to guard the wing again. Perhaps worst was that he only shot 44.8 percent on 2s, with low rates of free throws and assists — in other words, even setting aside the 3-point disaster, he still wasn’t any good.

At 32 it’s not clear what he has left, but he’ll have more motivation in Miami than he did in Washington (trust me, he can’t have less), and he may be able to make a living shooting standstill corner 3s.

 

JOEL ANTHONY, C

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

5.2

7.0

0.3

8.4

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Undersized, energetic center with excellent mobility and shot-blocking skill.

+ Brutal offensive player. Can’t shoot, has terrible hands and no instincts.

+ Poor rebounder despite athleticism, especially on defense. Solid foul shooter.

 

Analysis

The Canadian southpaw made enough dunks and layups to be something less than a total liability offensively last season. His league-worst usage rate from 2011-12 jumped up to merely the third-worst, and his true shooting percentage ranked eighth-best among centers — although it still produced only 6.5 points per 40 minutes. Hey, baby steps.

Anthony’s secret weakness is that he’s also a terrible rebounder, posting the fourth-worst rebound rate among centers. He has trouble catching the ball and will take himself out of position going for blocks; in fact he’s even worse on the defensive glass than offensively.

However, defense is where his value lies. Anthony isn’t terribly physical, but he’s a mobile pick-and-roll defender who can block shots, so overall he’s a plus at this end. Unfortunately, it doesn’t offset his problems on offense, and basically renders him a situational player who has seen far too much daylight over the past two seasons.

 

NORRIS COLE, PG

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

14.3

2.8

4.3

8.6

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Quick point guard who struggles to make shots. Must improve 3-point game.

+ Disappointed as a passer and ballhandler. Iffy court vision, too many turnovers.

+ Solid defender, especially against quick guards, but fouled far too often.

 

Analysis

We’re sure this guy was a point guard in college? Cole looked at times like a really short power forward, committing turnovers in bunches while virtually never locating open teammates. His Assist Rate was the fourth worst among point guards and his pure point rating the second worst, a distressing -1.30.

This may have resulted partly from trying to do too much; Cole had the Heat’s fourth-highest usage rate and nearly caught Chris Bosh for third. Clearly that shouldn’t have been the case, as too often Cole’s attempts to create produced wild dribbling that ended with him trapped in an unwieldy spot.

Cole only hit 34.0 percent on 3s in his last two college seasons and this looms as his other big weakness as a pro — his rookie campaign finished at 27.6 percent. He simply has to shoot better to hold down a gig, because he’s not going to score at the rim enough to make a living.

Defensively, Cole redeemed himself enough to earn playoff minutes against quick guards. The Heat defended much better with him off the court, but Synergy gave him solid grades and opposing point guards had only a 12.5 PER against him, according to 82games.com.

His biggest problem on defense was all the fouling; only eight point guards were whistled more per minute even though he had just an average rate of steals. Additionally, Cole was fairly worthless on the glass, sporting the fifth-worst defensive rebound rate in the league.

 

JAMES JONES, SF

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

11.4

3.1

1.3

9.4

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Shooting SF who has replaced cobwebs as item most commonly seen in corners.

+ Never, ever, ever attacks the basket. Rarely even dribbles. Low-turnover player.

+ Poor athlete, but has good size for 3 and plays passable defense. Bad rebounder.

 

Analysis

Jones has played 2,217 minutes over the past two seasons and taken one shot in the basket area.

One.

Last season he didn’t take any, and didn’t make a shot inside 10 feet the entire season. Meanwhile, more than three-quarters of his tries came from beyond the 3-point line. Jones made 40.4 percent of them, too, producing one of the best true shooting percentages at his position, and once again did it with one of the lowest turnover rates in all of basketball. He also drew a surprising number of fouls for a pure catch-and-shoot guy who never penetrated.

But Jones still wasn’t a very valuable player because of all his other limitations. For starters he can’t create his own shot at all, not even a little bit. Defensively, his lack of mobility makes him something of a liability. While he has good size and competes, he can’t play the trapping, attacking style Miami prefers. He’s also useless on the glass, sporting the league’s worst rebound rate among small forwards at an embarrassing 4.4 — this was a worse mark than that of all but nine of the league’s point guards.

In sum, he’s a fringe rotation player if he’s making 3s and worthless if he’s not. Once Miami found alternate solutions to its floor-spacing conundrums in the playoffs, it was a pretty easy call to leave him on the pine.

 

DEXTER PITTMAN, C

 

Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections

PTS

REB

AST

PER

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

(Stats are per 40 minutes)

 

 

Scouting report

+ Powerful physical force around basket with wide body. Conditioning a concern.

+ Short for a center but has long arms. Good hands. Poor foul shooter.

+ Can defend post but lacks mobility. Staggeringly foul-prone.

 

Analysis

Pittman’s most notable achievement was his indefensible cheap shot on Indiana’s Lance Stephenson in the playoffs, but he also got into 35 regular-season games and wasn’t half bad. An old-school center in a new-school league, Pittman can establish deep post position and make short shots in the paint, leading to a solid 14.1 points per 40 minutes average. He also rebounded at a solid clip for a center.

Unfortunately, he still doesn’t do a whole lot else. Defensively he’s only useful against another big center, where he can bang in the paint and won’t have to move. Otherwise, he picks up fouls at such an alarming rate that it’s difficult to keep him on the court — nearly one foul every four minutes last season. He doesn’t block shots either, and he’s a liability in transition and pick-and-roll defense. Thus, his utility is likely to remain quite limited, until or unless he improves his conditioning to the point where he doesn’t foul on nearly every play.

 

[F_S]

not saying that norris cole was good but his stats don’t tell the whole story.

he often played with miller, james jones, battier, haslem/ joel anthony… if you notice NO1 on that crew can create shots for themselves and he was left as the main ball handler/ creator. what do they expect cole to do with all those scrubs who cant do anything for themselves as hollinger said??

good article, says pretty much everything.

this explains the heat’s offense. keep mobile players and bigs who run the court and get in transition. spread the floor with shooters for lebron and wade with very little need for any to create inside the arc.

on defense, defend the pick and roll extremely well (which is deadly against teams like okc, and a major reason why they lost). constantly using help defense taking full advantage of their versatility in the wing 

even thought the heat recently said that they are "disappointed" with dexter pittman, i expect the heat to keep him. he will develop into a serviceable big imo

 

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