This topic contains 42 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by AvatarAvatar RollingWave 9 years, 11 months ago.

  • Author
    Posts
  • #64682
    AvatarAvatar
    ChicagoCasey
    Participant

     I believe using stats to determine who is a good defender and who is not good defender. The common stat some turn to determine who is a good defender is either blocks or steals. Those stats are overrated because the game of basketball is a 60+ possession game. Getting 2 steals or getting 3 blocks in a 60+ possession game is just 2 to 3 good defensive plays. Some players that get those stats may be great defensive players, but that’s not relevant in determining who is a good defender and who is a bad defender. 

    Not trying to knock Steph Curry, but saying he’s a good defender because he leads the NBA in steals is pointless in an argument about great defense. Kawhi Leonard is a great defender while he picks up a high rate of steals. You can tell he’s a great defender by just watching him play defense, not by going by how he have 2 steals per game. I heard an argument that James Harden is a good defender because he averaged more steals than Klay Thompson. You can watch James Harden play and see that he’s a below average defender.

    The point is that we need to stop using basic stats to determine who is or he isn’t a top defender in this league. Stats are pointless in determining things about players, I don’t determine who’s good and who’s not by using numbers. You can tell by watching the game. Not saying that numbers are not important to the game, but it to be in the end all be all is wrong on defense.

     

     

    0
  • #1083757
    AvatarAvatar
    Choppy
    Participant

     Things like opponent fg% can be used to get a better overall idea of a players defence. For example, if Player A scores 30 points on Player B, you’d think B is a poor defender. But if A shot 10 of 30 to get those 30 points, perhaps it was B’s defence that caused him to shoot a low percentage. Its not everything but can help to compare players, especially if over a large enough sample size. 

    There are probably heaps more advanced stats that you could use that I don’t know about.  

    0
  • #1083586
    AvatarAvatar
    Choppy
    Participant

     Things like opponent fg% can be used to get a better overall idea of a players defence. For example, if Player A scores 30 points on Player B, you’d think B is a poor defender. But if A shot 10 of 30 to get those 30 points, perhaps it was B’s defence that caused him to shoot a low percentage. Its not everything but can help to compare players, especially if over a large enough sample size. 

    There are probably heaps more advanced stats that you could use that I don’t know about.  

    0
    • #1083766
      AvatarAvatar
      ChicagoCasey
      Participant

       That;s an flawd stat because it gives no context for perimeter players. You don’t know who said player have behind him for help defense or what not. One player might have Prime Dwight Howard on the back end, while the other might have Al Jefferson. Having Prime Dwight Howard on the back end helps one player, while the other player have a terrible rim protector. Having Prime Dwight helps the perimeter defender by making them take lower percentage of shots (mid range, tough floater, etc….) and if he gets to the paint it will get block/altered. But, with Al Jefferson being the back end of the defense, the offensive player could have a field day in the paint and they would take higher percentage of shots (lay ups, open jumpers off of pick and rolls).

      The only advanced stat that you can use that determine "good" defense is FG%  defense in the paint for rim protectors. They are left on the island and they are the only one that can effect that play. 

       

       

      0
    • #1083595
      AvatarAvatar
      ChicagoCasey
      Participant

       That;s an flawd stat because it gives no context for perimeter players. You don’t know who said player have behind him for help defense or what not. One player might have Prime Dwight Howard on the back end, while the other might have Al Jefferson. Having Prime Dwight Howard on the back end helps one player, while the other player have a terrible rim protector. Having Prime Dwight helps the perimeter defender by making them take lower percentage of shots (mid range, tough floater, etc….) and if he gets to the paint it will get block/altered. But, with Al Jefferson being the back end of the defense, the offensive player could have a field day in the paint and they would take higher percentage of shots (lay ups, open jumpers off of pick and rolls).

      The only advanced stat that you can use that determine "good" defense is FG%  defense in the paint for rim protectors. They are left on the island and they are the only one that can effect that play. 

       

       

      0
      • #1083775
        AvatarAvatar
        Chewy
        Participant

        You can’t break down all things basketball into stats. If your going to as far as saying that opponent FG% isn’t an accurate indicator… then the stat that you want doesn’t exist. 

        With steals, blocks, opponent fg% and actually watching the player play, it actually is relatively easy to see who plays great defense and who just gambled consistently.

        According to your logic, FG% defense in the paibt can;t be an accurat stat because players double post players all the time. Other bigs can come from the other side of the lane to help out. So, since it’s not a true one-on-one every time the stat can’t be used?

         

        0
      • #1083604
        AvatarAvatar
        Chewy
        Participant

        You can’t break down all things basketball into stats. If your going to as far as saying that opponent FG% isn’t an accurate indicator… then the stat that you want doesn’t exist. 

        With steals, blocks, opponent fg% and actually watching the player play, it actually is relatively easy to see who plays great defense and who just gambled consistently.

        According to your logic, FG% defense in the paibt can;t be an accurat stat because players double post players all the time. Other bigs can come from the other side of the lane to help out. So, since it’s not a true one-on-one every time the stat can’t be used?

         

        0
        • #1083790
          AvatarAvatar
          ChicagoCasey
          Participant

           The point is stats don’t tell the whole story and they don’t have context w/ the stats. You can have 2 steals one game, but the steals cannot come from playing good defense. Sometimes the ball just roll your way. There’s no context with these stats.

          Again it’s flaws with every defensive stats. Players that get 2 steals a game played defensive great for only 2 possessions in a 60+ possession game. That does not measure good defense. Same with blocks.

           With opponents field goal defense percentage, they don’t tell who’s helping them on defense. Look at Steph Curry for example. Curry post up great defensive basic stats and advanced stats. He’s one of the leaders for steals and he post  a fairlt opponents field goal defense percentage. But, those stats don’t tell you that he’s playing with 3/4 other all defense caliber players at once. Those numbers can get misleaded because of the players he plays with. He can take more chances and his opponents take tougher/lower percentage shots against him than the average player. 

          That’s not saying Curry is a terrible defender, but his stats are misleading given that he have a easier job on defense. If you watch him he’s pretty average or maybe a little but about that, but the numbers suggest that he’s probably the best defensive point guard in the league.

           

           

          0
        • #1083619
          AvatarAvatar
          ChicagoCasey
          Participant

           The point is stats don’t tell the whole story and they don’t have context w/ the stats. You can have 2 steals one game, but the steals cannot come from playing good defense. Sometimes the ball just roll your way. There’s no context with these stats.

          Again it’s flaws with every defensive stats. Players that get 2 steals a game played defensive great for only 2 possessions in a 60+ possession game. That does not measure good defense. Same with blocks.

           With opponents field goal defense percentage, they don’t tell who’s helping them on defense. Look at Steph Curry for example. Curry post up great defensive basic stats and advanced stats. He’s one of the leaders for steals and he post  a fairlt opponents field goal defense percentage. But, those stats don’t tell you that he’s playing with 3/4 other all defense caliber players at once. Those numbers can get misleaded because of the players he plays with. He can take more chances and his opponents take tougher/lower percentage shots against him than the average player. 

          That’s not saying Curry is a terrible defender, but his stats are misleading given that he have a easier job on defense. If you watch him he’s pretty average or maybe a little but about that, but the numbers suggest that he’s probably the best defensive point guard in the league.

           

           

          0
        • #1083630
          AvatarAvatar
          ChicagoCasey
          Participant

           The point is stats don’t tell the whole story and they don’t have context w/ the stats. You can have 2 steals one game, but the steals cannot come from playing good defense. Sometimes the ball just roll your way. There’s no context with these stats.

          Again it’s flaws with every defensive stats. Players that get 2 steals a game played defensive great for only 2 possessions in a 60+ possession game. That does not measure good defense. Same with blocks.

           With opponents field goal defense percentage, they don’t tell who’s helping them on defense. Look at Steph Curry for example. Curry post up great defensive basic stats and advanced stats. He’s one of the leaders for steals and he post  a fairlt opponents field goal defense percentage. But, those stats don’t tell you that he’s playing with 3/4 other all defense caliber players at once. Those numbers can get misleaded because of the players he plays with. He can take more chances and his opponents take tougher/lower percentage shots against him than the average player. 

          That’s not saying Curry is a terrible defender, but his stats are misleading given that he have a easier job on defense. If you watch him he’s pretty average or maybe a little but about that, but the numbers suggest that he’s probably the best defensive point guard in the league.

           

           

          0
      • #1083615
        AvatarAvatar
        Chewy
        Participant

        You can’t break down all things basketball into stats. If your going to as far as saying that opponent FG% isn’t an accurate indicator… then the stat that you want doesn’t exist. 

        With steals, blocks, opponent fg% and actually watching the player play, it actually is relatively easy to see who plays great defense and who just gambled consistently.

        According to your logic, FG% defense in the paibt can;t be an accurat stat because players double post players all the time. Other bigs can come from the other side of the lane to help out. So, since it’s not a true one-on-one every time the stat can’t be used?

         

        0
      • #1083691
        AvatarAvatar
        Choppy
        Participant

         I know its a flawed stat. All stats are. There is never going to be one stat that says it all. You can only get indicators that you can glean information from. That was what I was trying to say.

        0
      • #1083701
        AvatarAvatar
        Choppy
        Participant

         I know its a flawed stat. All stats are. There is never going to be one stat that says it all. You can only get indicators that you can glean information from. That was what I was trying to say.

        0
      • #1083863
        AvatarAvatar
        Choppy
        Participant

         I know its a flawed stat. All stats are. There is never going to be one stat that says it all. You can only get indicators that you can glean information from. That was what I was trying to say.

        0
    • #1083606
      AvatarAvatar
      ChicagoCasey
      Participant

       That;s an flawd stat because it gives no context for perimeter players. You don’t know who said player have behind him for help defense or what not. One player might have Prime Dwight Howard on the back end, while the other might have Al Jefferson. Having Prime Dwight Howard on the back end helps one player, while the other player have a terrible rim protector. Having Prime Dwight helps the perimeter defender by making them take lower percentage of shots (mid range, tough floater, etc….) and if he gets to the paint it will get block/altered. But, with Al Jefferson being the back end of the defense, the offensive player could have a field day in the paint and they would take higher percentage of shots (lay ups, open jumpers off of pick and rolls).

      The only advanced stat that you can use that determine "good" defense is FG%  defense in the paint for rim protectors. They are left on the island and they are the only one that can effect that play. 

       

       

      0
  • #1083596
    AvatarAvatar
    Choppy
    Participant

     Things like opponent fg% can be used to get a better overall idea of a players defence. For example, if Player A scores 30 points on Player B, you’d think B is a poor defender. But if A shot 10 of 30 to get those 30 points, perhaps it was B’s defence that caused him to shoot a low percentage. Its not everything but can help to compare players, especially if over a large enough sample size. 

    There are probably heaps more advanced stats that you could use that I don’t know about.  

    0
  • #1083760
    AvatarAvatar
    Hype Machine

    For perimeter defense…its possible to see how close a defender can stick to his man by player movement tracking. Chris Paul is apparently the closest marking defender last time I heard. Probably doesnt really apply to help defense but a good stat nonetheless.

    0
  • #1083589
    AvatarAvatar
    Hype Machine

    For perimeter defense…its possible to see how close a defender can stick to his man by player movement tracking. Chris Paul is apparently the closest marking defender last time I heard. Probably doesnt really apply to help defense but a good stat nonetheless.

    0
  • #1083600
    AvatarAvatar
    Hype Machine

    For perimeter defense…its possible to see how close a defender can stick to his man by player movement tracking. Chris Paul is apparently the closest marking defender last time I heard. Probably doesnt really apply to help defense but a good stat nonetheless.

    0
  • #1083769
    AvatarAvatar
    dudo670
    Participant

    Someone on here tried telling me Tyler Ulis was a bad defender last season because his defensive rating on Kentucky was second worst on the team. This guy didn’t even understand the rating, which is slighted towards big men and great defensive teams because it’s an estimate off box score stats! Ulis won SEC DPOY so clearly the writers who watched him night after night agreed with me, that he is a very good on ball defender.

    0
  • #1083598
    AvatarAvatar
    dudo670
    Participant

    Someone on here tried telling me Tyler Ulis was a bad defender last season because his defensive rating on Kentucky was second worst on the team. This guy didn’t even understand the rating, which is slighted towards big men and great defensive teams because it’s an estimate off box score stats! Ulis won SEC DPOY so clearly the writers who watched him night after night agreed with me, that he is a very good on ball defender.

    0
  • #1083609
    AvatarAvatar
    dudo670
    Participant

    Someone on here tried telling me Tyler Ulis was a bad defender last season because his defensive rating on Kentucky was second worst on the team. This guy didn’t even understand the rating, which is slighted towards big men and great defensive teams because it’s an estimate off box score stats! Ulis won SEC DPOY so clearly the writers who watched him night after night agreed with me, that he is a very good on ball defender.

    0
  • #1083648
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083808
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083637
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083651
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083811
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083640
    AvatarAvatar
    BogDon_Krypt
    Participant

     Bogdan bogdanavich all day on defense.  Kid can flat out Bogdan 

    0
  • #1083654
    AvatarAvatar
    circumlocution75
    Participant

     I get VERY frustrated w/ Kevin Pelton’s Adjusted From Sabermetrics Analytics Formulas for Basketball

    The Original Win Shar from MLB (Major League Baeball) did NOT give Negative scores for Defense b/c Bill James understood that Defense is a SUBJECTIVE skill

    and that is a 100X more true in Basketball than in Baseball……. So if a Guy has Negative scores in a Win Share Algorithm that COMPLETELY Fooks up his Overall Win Share score! there are Other issues w/ Win Share Formula but I’ll stick to Defense for the purpose of this Discussion

    VORP is Another Screw Up by Pelton —– Steals are TWICE as Valuable than Blocks in Pelton’s VORP Algorithm!

    This is Crazy b/c most players who lead in Steals are Compensating for a LACK of Defensive Ability so they cheat in the passin lanes – Blocked Shots or Altering Shots is a FAR more Valuable Defensive Measure b/c it Alters a players Normal Shot MEchanics & Pschologically wrecks Whole teams!

    Has ANY-one Ever heard someone say this guy is a Motherfucka Stealing the ball we need to Adjust our Entire game plan! Of course Not! Blocked Shots should be TRIPLE the Value of steals….

    Peltons reasoning is that Steals change possession—- WHY did Pelton Not consult any former Pro Basketball players??? 

    And I agree 100% w/ Casey — the Best "On Ball" or Man to Man defenders rarely have many Defensive stats b/c they Smother their man….. It’s much like a Great corner back in football who shuts down an Entire side of the field but has No stats b/c No one in their right Mind thors the ball to his side….

    Go look at the List for Steals Leader — Steph Curry is the Steals Leader the last 2 years, Ricky Rubio before him — does ANYONE consider either Curry or Rubio a Great Defender/??? We Really need to take a Closer look at the Mathematical Formulas that Pelton Invented for Win Share & Vorp

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083814
    AvatarAvatar
    circumlocution75
    Participant

     I get VERY frustrated w/ Kevin Pelton’s Adjusted From Sabermetrics Analytics Formulas for Basketball

    The Original Win Shar from MLB (Major League Baeball) did NOT give Negative scores for Defense b/c Bill James understood that Defense is a SUBJECTIVE skill

    and that is a 100X more true in Basketball than in Baseball……. So if a Guy has Negative scores in a Win Share Algorithm that COMPLETELY Fooks up his Overall Win Share score! there are Other issues w/ Win Share Formula but I’ll stick to Defense for the purpose of this Discussion

    VORP is Another Screw Up by Pelton —– Steals are TWICE as Valuable than Blocks in Pelton’s VORP Algorithm!

    This is Crazy b/c most players who lead in Steals are Compensating for a LACK of Defensive Ability so they cheat in the passin lanes – Blocked Shots or Altering Shots is a FAR more Valuable Defensive Measure b/c it Alters a players Normal Shot MEchanics & Pschologically wrecks Whole teams!

    Has ANY-one Ever heard someone say this guy is a Motherfucka Stealing the ball we need to Adjust our Entire game plan! Of course Not! Blocked Shots should be TRIPLE the Value of steals….

    Peltons reasoning is that Steals change possession—- WHY did Pelton Not consult any former Pro Basketball players??? 

    And I agree 100% w/ Casey — the Best "On Ball" or Man to Man defenders rarely have many Defensive stats b/c they Smother their man….. It’s much like a Great corner back in football who shuts down an Entire side of the field but has No stats b/c No one in their right Mind thors the ball to his side….

    Go look at the List for Steals Leader — Steph Curry is the Steals Leader the last 2 years, Ricky Rubio before him — does ANYONE consider either Curry or Rubio a Great Defender/??? We Really need to take a Closer look at the Mathematical Formulas that Pelton Invented for Win Share & Vorp

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083643
    AvatarAvatar
    circumlocution75
    Participant

     I get VERY frustrated w/ Kevin Pelton’s Adjusted From Sabermetrics Analytics Formulas for Basketball

    The Original Win Shar from MLB (Major League Baeball) did NOT give Negative scores for Defense b/c Bill James understood that Defense is a SUBJECTIVE skill

    and that is a 100X more true in Basketball than in Baseball……. So if a Guy has Negative scores in a Win Share Algorithm that COMPLETELY Fooks up his Overall Win Share score! there are Other issues w/ Win Share Formula but I’ll stick to Defense for the purpose of this Discussion

    VORP is Another Screw Up by Pelton —– Steals are TWICE as Valuable than Blocks in Pelton’s VORP Algorithm!

    This is Crazy b/c most players who lead in Steals are Compensating for a LACK of Defensive Ability so they cheat in the passin lanes – Blocked Shots or Altering Shots is a FAR more Valuable Defensive Measure b/c it Alters a players Normal Shot MEchanics & Pschologically wrecks Whole teams!

    Has ANY-one Ever heard someone say this guy is a Motherfucka Stealing the ball we need to Adjust our Entire game plan! Of course Not! Blocked Shots should be TRIPLE the Value of steals….

    Peltons reasoning is that Steals change possession—- WHY did Pelton Not consult any former Pro Basketball players??? 

    And I agree 100% w/ Casey — the Best "On Ball" or Man to Man defenders rarely have many Defensive stats b/c they Smother their man….. It’s much like a Great corner back in football who shuts down an Entire side of the field but has No stats b/c No one in their right Mind thors the ball to his side….

    Go look at the List for Steals Leader — Steph Curry is the Steals Leader the last 2 years, Ricky Rubio before him — does ANYONE consider either Curry or Rubio a Great Defender/??? We Really need to take a Closer look at the Mathematical Formulas that Pelton Invented for Win Share & Vorp

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    0
    • #1083667
      AvatarAvatar
      sweaterflex
      Participant

      This is not a constructive way to look at defensive stats, and you are attributing all of these different things to one statistician, when most of these stats are from Neil Paine and Jeremias Englemann. Blocks and steals are individual proxies for team performance in these formulas. The team performance while the player is on the court can be found in Box +/- and Real Plus Minus, though BPM includes fitted values for offense. RPM seems to have a Bayesian prior that positively weights the impact of height to try and account for rim protection and decreased floor space. 

      Nylon Calculus has really good stats on rim protection if you would like to look specifically at that. Blocks can be inflated the same way steals are; Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan are not as good of defenders as Tim Duncan and Draymond Green. And sometimes steals ARE a really good indicator for perimeter defense. Ricky Rubio, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Allen consistently rate highly in steals and the +/- stats that don’t account for box score stats. Rondo and Westbrook certainly cheat in the passing lanes too much, whereas Steph Curry is the beneficiary of a defense that switches and traps aggressively, forcing teams in to difficult passes. Advanced stats are just another tool to look at, and some of them are better than others at measuring specific things you care about.

       

      0
    • #1083677
      AvatarAvatar
      sweaterflex
      Participant

      This is not a constructive way to look at defensive stats, and you are attributing all of these different things to one statistician, when most of these stats are from Neil Paine and Jeremias Englemann. Blocks and steals are individual proxies for team performance in these formulas. The team performance while the player is on the court can be found in Box +/- and Real Plus Minus, though BPM includes fitted values for offense. RPM seems to have a Bayesian prior that positively weights the impact of height to try and account for rim protection and decreased floor space. 

      Nylon Calculus has really good stats on rim protection if you would like to look specifically at that. Blocks can be inflated the same way steals are; Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan are not as good of defenders as Tim Duncan and Draymond Green. And sometimes steals ARE a really good indicator for perimeter defense. Ricky Rubio, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Allen consistently rate highly in steals and the +/- stats that don’t account for box score stats. Rondo and Westbrook certainly cheat in the passing lanes too much, whereas Steph Curry is the beneficiary of a defense that switches and traps aggressively, forcing teams in to difficult passes. Advanced stats are just another tool to look at, and some of them are better than others at measuring specific things you care about.

       

      0
    • #1083838
      AvatarAvatar
      sweaterflex
      Participant

      This is not a constructive way to look at defensive stats, and you are attributing all of these different things to one statistician, when most of these stats are from Neil Paine and Jeremias Englemann. Blocks and steals are individual proxies for team performance in these formulas. The team performance while the player is on the court can be found in Box +/- and Real Plus Minus, though BPM includes fitted values for offense. RPM seems to have a Bayesian prior that positively weights the impact of height to try and account for rim protection and decreased floor space. 

      Nylon Calculus has really good stats on rim protection if you would like to look specifically at that. Blocks can be inflated the same way steals are; Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan are not as good of defenders as Tim Duncan and Draymond Green. And sometimes steals ARE a really good indicator for perimeter defense. Ricky Rubio, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Allen consistently rate highly in steals and the +/- stats that don’t account for box score stats. Rondo and Westbrook certainly cheat in the passing lanes too much, whereas Steph Curry is the beneficiary of a defense that switches and traps aggressively, forcing teams in to difficult passes. Advanced stats are just another tool to look at, and some of them are better than others at measuring specific things you care about.

       

      0
  • #1083711
    AvatarAvatar
    BeastMode716
    Participant

     stats" 

    But this IS how most fans view these stats – as pass fail indicators whether a player is good or not good? I respect your opinion but if you are claiming there is a "constructive" way to view stats than That is Subjective in itself and that is Circ& Chicago Casey’ s whole point

    We have lost the reason for creating Anlytical Models and that is to somehow take individuals a Team system where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and determine the Individual Value of Each player – this was the goal of Bill James Sabermetrics from which Analytics originated

    Baseball is a Totally different sport and I’m not sure it’s transferrable – Win Share & Vorp are 2 of the Most important Analytic stats I hear quoted in NBA discussions, I had no idea that the Very Values used in the equations were arrived at arbitrarily – if true it would seriously undermine their Usefulness in my opinion. 

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083722
    AvatarAvatar
    BeastMode716
    Participant

     stats" 

    But this IS how most fans view these stats – as pass fail indicators whether a player is good or not good? I respect your opinion but if you are claiming there is a "constructive" way to view stats than That is Subjective in itself and that is Circ& Chicago Casey’ s whole point

    We have lost the reason for creating Anlytical Models and that is to somehow take individuals a Team system where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and determine the Individual Value of Each player – this was the goal of Bill James Sabermetrics from which Analytics originated

    Baseball is a Totally different sport and I’m not sure it’s transferrable – Win Share & Vorp are 2 of the Most important Analytic stats I hear quoted in NBA discussions, I had no idea that the Very Values used in the equations were arrived at arbitrarily – if true it would seriously undermine their Usefulness in my opinion. 

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083884
    AvatarAvatar
    BeastMode716
    Participant

     stats" 

    But this IS how most fans view these stats – as pass fail indicators whether a player is good or not good? I respect your opinion but if you are claiming there is a "constructive" way to view stats than That is Subjective in itself and that is Circ& Chicago Casey’ s whole point

    We have lost the reason for creating Anlytical Models and that is to somehow take individuals a Team system where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and determine the Individual Value of Each player – this was the goal of Bill James Sabermetrics from which Analytics originated

    Baseball is a Totally different sport and I’m not sure it’s transferrable – Win Share & Vorp are 2 of the Most important Analytic stats I hear quoted in NBA discussions, I had no idea that the Very Values used in the equations were arrived at arbitrarily – if true it would seriously undermine their Usefulness in my opinion. 

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083971
    AvatarAvatar
    Ollstar
    Participant

     I like to see how the defender’s matchup does on average and how they do vs that specific defender. Factor in how that team defends the position and scale the result accordingly. For example, let’s say Lin scores 25 against the Suns while playing his usual allotment of minutes. That would be 14 more than his average for the season. The Suns allow the most points from Lin’s position at 25 while the league average is about 21. Based off that I would say who ever defended Lin that game did poorly even considering the Suns usually allow a lot of points to his position. You could look at what sort of shots Lin took that game to gain some better context. Did he take bad shots and get lucky or were they uncontested. 

    No one stat is ever going to tell if a player is a good defender. One stat I do like is Defensive rebound rate. 

    And for stat geeks check out http://www.nbawowy.com and http://www.statmuse.com

     

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083798
    AvatarAvatar
    Ollstar
    Participant

     I like to see how the defender’s matchup does on average and how they do vs that specific defender. Factor in how that team defends the position and scale the result accordingly. For example, let’s say Lin scores 25 against the Suns while playing his usual allotment of minutes. That would be 14 more than his average for the season. The Suns allow the most points from Lin’s position at 25 while the league average is about 21. Based off that I would say who ever defended Lin that game did poorly even considering the Suns usually allow a lot of points to his position. You could look at what sort of shots Lin took that game to gain some better context. Did he take bad shots and get lucky or were they uncontested. 

    No one stat is ever going to tell if a player is a good defender. One stat I do like is Defensive rebound rate. 

    And for stat geeks check out http://www.nbawowy.com and http://www.statmuse.com

     

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083809
    AvatarAvatar
    Ollstar
    Participant

     I like to see how the defender’s matchup does on average and how they do vs that specific defender. Factor in how that team defends the position and scale the result accordingly. For example, let’s say Lin scores 25 against the Suns while playing his usual allotment of minutes. That would be 14 more than his average for the season. The Suns allow the most points from Lin’s position at 25 while the league average is about 21. Based off that I would say who ever defended Lin that game did poorly even considering the Suns usually allow a lot of points to his position. You could look at what sort of shots Lin took that game to gain some better context. Did he take bad shots and get lucky or were they uncontested. 

    No one stat is ever going to tell if a player is a good defender. One stat I do like is Defensive rebound rate. 

    And for stat geeks check out http://www.nbawowy.com and http://www.statmuse.com

     

     

     

     

    0
  • #1083920
    AvatarAvatar
    RollingWave
    Participant

    Who isn’t even really sure what the defender was suppose to do in those situation .

    The problem is that most players are asked to do specific things in specific situations,  if a team ask a guy to primarily go under screens as their game plan, is it fair to knock him when he evitably has more 3s hit on him than most dudes?

    Different team’s scheme is different, we all know that, the Hornets for example tend to play really conservative, they tend to be more willing to give up 3s (especially those that require multiple passes to get open.) and focus on collapsing back towards the paint to cover for their lack of good rim protectors,  and then they also pretty much crash the glass with all 5 guys on defense. which leads to disporportionally high rebounding numbers for their perimeter guys.

    I basically think there’s really just 3 types of dudes in terms of defense in the NBA though.

    1. game changer : these are very few, the really good rim protecting centers or wing defenders usually.

    2. team defenders : these are basically most players in the league, they know what the coaches want them to do and can do it to most degree, some are better than others but the difference isn’t really as significant as you’d think.

    3. poor defenders : these are also relatively few, mostly inexperienced players or fringy guys.  occasionally there are also some guys who are here because they carry a huge load offensively (you know, James Harden, but a few other guys are also in this realm.)  these guys are pretty distruptive to a team’s ability to defend. aka you rather have 5 basic level guys in #2 than 1 of these type of guys and 4 relatively good #2 types.

    0
  • #1083934
    AvatarAvatar
    RollingWave
    Participant

    Who isn’t even really sure what the defender was suppose to do in those situation .

    The problem is that most players are asked to do specific things in specific situations,  if a team ask a guy to primarily go under screens as their game plan, is it fair to knock him when he evitably has more 3s hit on him than most dudes?

    Different team’s scheme is different, we all know that, the Hornets for example tend to play really conservative, they tend to be more willing to give up 3s (especially those that require multiple passes to get open.) and focus on collapsing back towards the paint to cover for their lack of good rim protectors,  and then they also pretty much crash the glass with all 5 guys on defense. which leads to disporportionally high rebounding numbers for their perimeter guys.

    I basically think there’s really just 3 types of dudes in terms of defense in the NBA though.

    1. game changer : these are very few, the really good rim protecting centers or wing defenders usually.

    2. team defenders : these are basically most players in the league, they know what the coaches want them to do and can do it to most degree, some are better than others but the difference isn’t really as significant as you’d think.

    3. poor defenders : these are also relatively few, mostly inexperienced players or fringy guys.  occasionally there are also some guys who are here because they carry a huge load offensively (you know, James Harden, but a few other guys are also in this realm.)  these guys are pretty distruptive to a team’s ability to defend. aka you rather have 5 basic level guys in #2 than 1 of these type of guys and 4 relatively good #2 types.

    0
  • #1084096
    AvatarAvatar
    RollingWave
    Participant

    Who isn’t even really sure what the defender was suppose to do in those situation .

    The problem is that most players are asked to do specific things in specific situations,  if a team ask a guy to primarily go under screens as their game plan, is it fair to knock him when he evitably has more 3s hit on him than most dudes?

    Different team’s scheme is different, we all know that, the Hornets for example tend to play really conservative, they tend to be more willing to give up 3s (especially those that require multiple passes to get open.) and focus on collapsing back towards the paint to cover for their lack of good rim protectors,  and then they also pretty much crash the glass with all 5 guys on defense. which leads to disporportionally high rebounding numbers for their perimeter guys.

    I basically think there’s really just 3 types of dudes in terms of defense in the NBA though.

    1. game changer : these are very few, the really good rim protecting centers or wing defenders usually.

    2. team defenders : these are basically most players in the league, they know what the coaches want them to do and can do it to most degree, some are better than others but the difference isn’t really as significant as you’d think.

    3. poor defenders : these are also relatively few, mostly inexperienced players or fringy guys.  occasionally there are also some guys who are here because they carry a huge load offensively (you know, James Harden, but a few other guys are also in this realm.)  these guys are pretty distruptive to a team’s ability to defend. aka you rather have 5 basic level guys in #2 than 1 of these type of guys and 4 relatively good #2 types.

    0

You must be logged in to reply to this topic. Login