[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Tier 1- Highest of the high. Even if he doesn’t work out, no one will criticize you.
Victor Wembanyama
This is a Zion corollary. Everyone knew Zion’s body was a risky proposition, and it has been. Nobody would argue his career has gone as well as that of Ja Morant. Nobody is really killing New Orleans for that pick. Victor’s frame is different, but also concerning. He has stayed healthy on a once-a-week team, but even in the era of rest he will still be asked to probably his minute load from this year. Can he do it, and do so regularly? It is a huge question, but he can’t nobody will slam the pick. If it works out, it transforms your franchise for as long as his 7’3″ body allows.

Tier 2- Potential All-Star
Scoot Henderson

Scoot’s durability has not been ideal. One would have hoped for greater improvement on his shot. Still, he is such an electric, dynamic creator that it is hard to not want to give him all the time he needs to round out his game.

Tier 3- Likely long-term starter, probable second contract lock
Gradey Dick, Jett Howard, Julian Strawther, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore

I think in Tier 3 is where the style of how teams want to play applies greater value to the 6’7″ to 6’9″ wing types. I might be a little higher on Whitmore Howard, and Strawther, but they fit what the NBA wants both stylistically and physically. It is not hard to see how they make it. Jarace Walker reminds me of Patrick Williams, which is good and bad. It is easy to see how he can get plugged in and play in the NBA, but often leaves you wanting more given what he is physically capable of doing.

Tier 4- Have the athleticism to go with a skill or trait that gives them a good chance to stick but has a wide spectrum of possibilities
Trey Alexander, Amari Bailey, Anthony Black, Keyonte George, Jordan Hawkins, Taylor Hendricks, , Jalen Hood-Schifino, Andre Jackson, Maxwell Lewis, Kris Murray, Nick Smith, Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Wilson, Cason Wallace, Dariq Whitehead

This is where the “smaller” off-guards start to filter in. Alexander, Bailey, George, and Hawkins would probably be higher if they were 6’6″ or bigger. Smith also has his knee is factoring in. Bailey’s play at the end of the season with a bigger role really won me over to get him here. On a veteran team, he fit in until it was time for him to step up, and at that point he did. It is a valuable aspect of a player entering the NBA. Cason Wallace and Hood-Schifino acquitted themselves well once they got the point job from Sahvir Wheeler and Xavier Johnson respectively. I think they could be Tier 3, but are borderline. With more teams having a point guard and at least one combo guard they feel good about, I think they are a better fit here. The Thompsons were very difficult to place. OTE is not a good level for guys going directly to the NBA. Honestly, I am quite curious as to how their college-bound players do next season. Anyway, both Thompsons have not only been ineffective as shooters but the form is bad as well. Black, Jackson, and the Thompsons have size and athleticism to where they will have leash in the NBA, but it is hard to overlook the reality that perimeter players have to be able to make a perimeter shot.

Tier 5/6- Has the frame and athleticism of a legit NBA player, but the game has to come around
Emoni Bates, Noah Clowney, Mouhamed Gueye, Coleman Hawkins, DaRon Holmes II, GG Jackson, Arthur Kaluma, Bobi Klintman, Dereck Lively, Leonard Miller, Terquavian Smith, Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Jacob Toppin

I feel if Lively ends up going in the 20-35 range, it will be good for him. He can’t be a build around guy, but started to show towards the end of the year the capability to have a role. Maybe he can have a Mitchell Robinson-esque path where he comes off the bench for a couple years and then move up. Bates has the skill set to be in a greater tier, but does not have much of a sense for playing on a team. Seeing as how no NBA team is going to build around him, it makes him enough of a risk to put him here. I like the upside of Tomlin and Klintman. I touched on Tomlin before, but Klintman came on towards the end of the year. In the final 11 games, he averaged 8.5 points on 40% from three while taking 4 per game. He added 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per in that span. If he was to return, he could be an early pick in 2024. It is sometimes hard to know how much of the volume a player takes is a reflection of his style, and how much is a reflection of the situation. Terquavian Smith is dynamic and can create his shot. He is just not that good at it, but could it be better with a lesser degree of difficulty. He won’t be the focal point of the opposition anymore. Lastly, just a reminder, GG Jackson shot 34% from the floor and 29% from three in SEC games. That has to be a red flag.

Tier 5/6- Lacks the ideal frame and/or athleticism (maybe just hype), but has a game that can work.
Reece Beekman, Kobe Brown, Kobe Bufkin, Tucker DeVries, Nadir Hifi, Colby Jones, Judah Mintz, Drew Peterson, Brandin Podziemski, Marcus Sasser, Baylor Scheierman, Brice Sensabaugh, Azuolas Tubelis

Since December 1, Nadir Hifi is averaging 20 PPG, 3.6 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game in the French LNB. In that span, he is shooting 49% and 37% from three. After a 2-9 start, they have gone a respectable 10-7 since he has emerged. That said, he is listed at 6’1″. He has French-Algerian Jalen Brunson style to his game, but he is on a hot streak. The fact that he is on a domestic league only team is a bit concerning because of the difference in the volume of games can make. Drew Peterson fits the NBA of today too well to not get on a roster. He can score effectively from all three levels, has great vision, and is 6’8″ with plenty of length. I get that because he went to Rice out of high school, some people will dismiss him, but he was Trey Murphy’s teammate there. I am curious to see his measurements and athletic testing in Chicago. He is gangly, but it is an era where it works better than it used to. Sensabaugh’s body type is unique. Other than THT, it is hard to find one like it recently, and they don’t play anything alike. Plus, I doubt Sensabaugh has quite as big a wingspan as THT. Still, he can really shoot it.

Tier 7/8- Has the frame and athleticism of a legit NBA player, but total and complete project who you can’t put on the floor
Charles Bediako, Sidy Cissoko, Bilal Coulibaly, Jazian Gortman, Dillon Mitchell, Julian Phillips, Rayan Rupert, Babacar Sane

Much like my warning with GG Jackson, Rayan Rupert is shooting 35% from the floor and 23% from three with more turnovers than assists. Wingspans are nice, but what can an NBA team do with a guy who is a negative in the NBL? If you are two years away from being two years away, what is the value to the draft pick?

Tier 7/8- Will play professionally, but maybe not in the NBA. All it takes is for one team to like them.
Leaky Black, Souley Boum, Keion Brooks Jr., Boo Buie, Tyger Campbell, Yuri Collins, Ricky Council IV, Caleb Daniels, RayJ Dennis, Zach Edey, Jesse Edwards, El Ellis, Tosan Evbuomwan, Adam Flagler, D’Moi Hodge, Jaime Jacquez, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Seth Lundy, Nathan Mensah, Mike Miles Jr., Jordan Miller, Landers Nolley, Markquis Nowell, Jalen Pickett, Jahvon Quinerly, Adama Sanogo, Terrence Shannon, Ben Sheppard, Drew Timme, Oscar Tshiebwe, Isaiah Wong

The third two-way contract being added in the new CBA means they have 30 more slots at which to have a chance. The push and pull of NIL and the lure of signing an NBA contract and forever being title “an NBA player” is going to be interesting to follow.

Draft-and-stash
Berke Buyuktuncel, Malcolm Cazalon, Malte Delow, Mouhamet Diouf, Lefteris Mantzoukas, Aday Mara, Paulius Murauskas, Eli Ndiaye, Alexandros Nikolaidis, James Nnaji, Juan Nunez, Jaime Pradilla, Nikos Rogkavopoulos, Matej Rudan, Musa Sagnia, Marcis Steinbergs, Tristan Vukcevic, Fedor Zugic

No good way to place them, but for different reasons
Brandon Miller, Keyontae Johnson, Jaylen Clark

With Keyontae Johnson and Jaylen Clark, they have real medical flags. It is great that Johnson got through the season healthy, but he still was not able to get cleared at Florida. Will an NBA team clear him? As for Clark, an Achilles injury can be a game changer. For someone who has to be a dog on defense, he can’t lose a step. It is hard to figure how teams will weigh that injury. One more reminder, there is a video of Brandon Miller delivering a gun to a college strip where a murder happens moments later. I guess some people needed to see the elevator footage of Ray Rice knocking out his wife to picture what happened when the fact were not in dispute that he did it. In this instance, the facts are not in dispute. What do you think it is going to look like? How do you think this will look for the NBA team who drafts him knowing these facts are not in dispute?

[HitsterParticipant]

Excellent post as always, I don’t agree with a few of the guys but I’m not going to argue where a couple of guys sit.

[Author]

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