[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Just curious what your top 10 college teams to win the title look like atm? We’re over a month away, do we have any early predictions???

I’ll take a stab at it here, although I’m not going by the experts, so this maybe a little unorthodox.

Alabama
UConn
Duke
UNC
Arkansas
Texas
Kansas
Creighton
Indiana
Houston

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Baylor, Texas A&M, and Iowa State were also considered.

[HitsterParticipant]

Kansas, Duke, Arkansas, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State Gonzaga, Baylor would be the sort of teams I’d expect to go deep in March Madness. UConn and Creighton I’d have a little behind them. UConn have lost 4 starters and would likely need Karaban to be challenging to be player of the year if they are to go near their last two successive titles. But Dan Hurley’s teams cannot be discounted even if it could be a bridging year

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Good points and picks, there are a lot of competitive teams this year imo. Good draft class – probably good college basketball year too!

[HitsterParticipant]

UConn were strong favourites to retain last year but this year it is much more open. A lot of good players declared this year but there is a decent returning class and we have the last year of the “super senior” so the depth will be really good.

I do wonder whether some guys who will be tempted to declare next year might be wise doing another year as once the 5th year seniors are all gone there will be a lot more playing time and the coaches cannot just rely on so many experienced guys.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

for sure there will be many prospects that don’t quite get the playing time they need to be a legit prospect this year and then the NIL money could persuade some to stay too.

[HitsterParticipant]

Will NIL money impact on who colleges recruit from HS or is it more used to keep guys in college or entice them to move. Unless a guy can get a guaranteed NBA contract they may be better taking good NILS money for up to 4 years. At worse they can showcase themselves to the better non NBA leagues.

A guy like Hunter Dickinson for example who may not be quick enough to get a regular NBA roster position but is one of the picks to be player of the year this college season would likely make good NILS money.

Another 5th year guy like Ryan Kalkbrenner who may lack a bit athletically but I can see him being drafted as he does have a decent 3 point range and will always have his size so should get 2nd round looks. But he likely got Nils money to return to the Bluejays.

Great Osobor has reputedly got a $2 million NILS deal this summer. That could almost set him up for life or give him the money to be in a comfortable position for a large number of years.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Yeah, NILs is designed for both. Athletes get paid now in college pretty good. College stars and upcoming future prospects along with big names like Bronny get the best deals too. It’s wise to stay if you’re not a shoe in first round pick if you play in college now imo.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

1. Kansas- Best roster bar none. I don’t see a path to them being anything but a #1 seed. You really have to go through gymnastics to find problems. They are too deep for so many of the “what ifs” to keep them from being a contender. They have three guys who averaged 16+ PPG last year, and another two who averaged double-digits, and that doesn’t include DeJuan Harris, the 5-star freshman in Flory Bidunga, the returning one-time 5-star in Elmarko Jackson, and 5th year Shakeel Moore.
2. Gonzaga- I liked their roster last year, kept 80+ percent of its minutes and points, added Michael Ajayi who in a pre-NIL era probably stays in the draft and will certainly be there next year, added 5th year Khalif Battle, added a shot blocking presence in Ismaila Diagne, gets a healthy Steele Venters, and it is possible Jun Seok Yeo takes a step forward after a year in the program. They have four guys who have shot better than 40 percent from three in a season. If they want to play 4-out with Ike, they can. If they want to go 5-out, they can. If they want to be big, they can go Diagne, Ike, Ajayi, Venters, and Battle where everyone is over 6’5″ and still have three guys who have shot better than 40 percent from three before. It is such a deep and skilled team where I don’t see where they run into a bad matchup, and have the coach who is good in-games to find the right play. They have a tough non-conference slate, but no other team in the country is as well positioned to get off to a fast start than them. They can win the Battle 4 Atlantis, beat Kentucky in Seattle, and Arizona State at home. None of those teams have continuity to click on all cylinders early on. They can probably afford to lose to Connecticut in NYC (they could also win that as well), and still be in the top 5 prior to WCC play. They are in-play for a top overall seed, and seem like a lock to go deep. It is just a matter of whether this is the team that gets over that last hump.
3. Baylor- This is the first projection on a freshman being great, but VJ Edgecombe was great in the Olympic qualifiers. He is joined by Jeremy Roach, Langston Love, Jayden Nunn, and Norchad Omier. They have a lot of skill and athleticism on the perimeter. Outside of Edgecombe, it is an old and proven group. With Edgecombe, Roach, Love, and Nunn, they have a lot of shooting. The difference between Baylor and the top two is that they aren’t big and versatile. Omier is a great college center, but is 6’6.” Behind him, Josh Ojianwuna needs to take a step up. Other than Omier and Ojianwina, it is only unproven bigs in Yanis Ndjonga and Marino Dubravcic. Ndjonga is coming off an ACL tear, and Dubravcic probably is not ready to contribute based off his overseas roles and production. It is a concern, but they might be a more offensively explosive version of the 2023 Miami team. That team went to the Final Four. Can this older and more talented team take that next step?
4. UNC- It seems a bit disrespectful of the college career of Armando Bacot to assume they can simply replace him, but I like Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington. If Jae’Lyn Withers can avoid awful shot selection, he can be useful up front as well. RJ Davis is a returning All-American 5th year point guard. Cade Tyson, Hunter’s younger brother, gives them a great shooter. They have a pair of 5-star freshmen as well as a second year who reclassified to play last year as a 5-star. Unlike Kansas and Gonzaga, it is possible that stumbles if Washington isn’t good. They don’t have a lot of depth inside. Also, if Tyson struggles to adapt to the step up in competition, they don’t have the same depth of shooters. Still, I believe in those two.
5. Duke- Just based on what NBA players have said, I can behind Cooper Flagg being good. Fine. Let’s assume they have an All-American. What is the rest of the roster? It is not a school that accepts just any transfer, but their net transfers are a negative. They lost Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, Jaylen Blakes, Sean Stewart, and TJ Power while only adding Maliq Brown, Cameron Sheffield, Sion James, and Mason Gillis. That counts for something. Among the group of Sion James, Caleb Foster, Kon Knueppel, and Isaiah Evans, they need to piece together their wings. They should be fine there. Is this the year Tyrese Proctor is a reliable shooter? He can’t just be a guy who gets hot once every other week if they are to win six in a row come March. My main concern is up front. They need Khaman Maluach or Patrick Ngongba II to be good in the middle. Highly acclaimed big men tend to be the most likely to be slow to adapt to the college game. Otherwise, they are playing Maliq Brown at the 5. In most games, it should be fine. When going deep in the tournament, it is not ideal.
6. Xavier- Plant my flag on this one. Xavier just has an abundance of talent, just not NBA talent which is why I have Duke ahead of them despite them having more uncertainty. They return Dayvion McKnight on he perimeter. Added to him is Dante Maddox Jr. All-MAC from Toledo, Marcus Foster 17 PPG from Furman, Ryan Conwell 16.6 PPG from Indiana State, Cam’Ron Fletcher from Florida State, and Roddie Anderson from Boise State. Upfront, they get Zach Freemantle back after missing last year due to his foot surgery. Jerome Hunter also missed last year, but could be back after his cardiac episode and achilles injury. Those two being unavailable were a big reason they went from 27-10 to 16-18. Beyond those two, they also added John Hugley IV from Oklahoma and Lassina Traore from Long Beach State. They are old and experienced everywhere. They have shooting and shot creating on the perimeter. They have an abundance of options on the inside. It is a great roster.
7. Houston- It isn’t quite Gonzaga’s level of continuity, but it is close. They return eight of their top ten guys from a 32-5 squad, and add Milos Uzan and Mercy Miller to replace Jamal Shead and Damian Dunn. Kelvin Sampson is also as good as they come in the college ranks. I can’t argue the roster has the star power to match, but nobody is going to want to face them at any point of the season.
8. Alabama- If Jarin Stevenson doesn’t go 5-8 from three as a sub-30 three point shooter in the Elite Eight and Grant Nelson doesn’t have that career game against UNC, they probably aren’t regarded as a title team. Stevenson did have that game, but it is still a team that is having a sub-30 percent shooter spotting up at the arc all game. More often than not, it isn’t a good move. Grant Nelson did have a career night against UNC, but was erratic all year. They are banking on Clifford Omoruyi cleaning up a lot of problems on the defensive end. Rutgers was 7-13 in the Big Ten. They played slow and defensive. How is he going to handle playing fast with teammates who can’t stay in front of their man? Sears is a great college guard, but I don’t think he has enough around him to likely get a title. I have my doubts over whether Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway are as good as Rylan Griffen and Aaron Estrada. It is fine, but not elite.
9. Connecticut- 8th feels disrespectful, but that has more to do with the coach who just won two-straight titles than it does the roster. It is a good, but far from elite roster at this point. I’ll bite on Alex Karaban being “the guy” and an All-American. Cool. Aidan Mahaney has not always had the best of times against more athletic opponents, and that is life in the Big East. Tarris Reed and Samson Johnson are not going to remind anyone of Adama Sanogo or Donovan Clingan. They have three highly touted freshmen, and return three sophomores who were mostly out of the rotation last year but held in similar esteem as recruits. In this era, needing four of those six to hit as contributors is a gamble. If any program deserves that benefit of the doubt, it is UConn. It could be the case next June we are looking at Alex Karaban, Liam McNeeley, Isaiah Abraham, and Solo Ball are NBA draft picks.
10a. Arkansas- I am a believer in Nelly Davis. I think DJ Wagner can take a step forward, but he was just a guy last year. Jonas Aidoo took a big step forward last year at Tennessee, and should be able to anchor the middle. Trevon Brazile is as impressive and NBA athlete as there is. If he stays healthy and plays up to his ability, he will be a 1st rounder. Adou Thiero is just a guy who happened to get recruited by Calipari. It is nice to have a good athlete, but doesn’t move the needle for me. Zvonimir Ivišić had one good moment against Georgia and a lot of problems keeping up with the pace of the college game. If he can’t go for more than a 4-5 minute stretch, he isn’t that valuable. It is those six and three recruits, of whom only Boogie Fland regularly is projected as a one-and-done 1st round draft prospect at this point. Calipari has opted to build a team with no margin for error. If someone gets hurt, if a freshman struggles to adapt, or if Ivišić or Wagner don’t take a step forward, then they could be a mediocre team. If Fland is good, my assessment of Davis, Brazile, and Aidoo are right, and Karter Knox can hit shots, then they have the talent to have a chance. It just stuns me that they have left themselves so wide open to needing to play walk-ons if two guys miss time.
10b. Creighton- Fedor Zugic is an interesting add for Creighton, if only because we are getting to the point where it is hard to know what makes an international prospect a pro or not. He has legitimately played four seasons of basketball against professionals. Three in Germany and once in the ABA with European competitions in every one of those years. I am aware of the history of international prospects struggling to transition to college, but would think a guy with more than 2,500 professional level minutes can step in for Baylor Scheierman. With him Pops Isaac, Jamiya Neal, Kalkbrenner, Ashworth, and Miller, they have a pretty formidable lineup. It isn’t as deep as I would prefer, but have kept most of their young players who were on the fringe of the rotation who could make a leap. Jackson McAndrew and Larry Johnson are held in relatively high regard, and might be able to step in right away.

Indiana is a possibility, but lack proven shooting. They need a leap from Mgbako and Carlisle, which is possible. The Texas frontcourt is a concern. If Shedrick plays 17-20 minutes like he has throughout his time in college, where are they going for the rest at the 5? Kaluma is not going to play the 5. Jayson Kent probably can’t. It is a similar story with Iowa State. Brandton Chatfield and Dishon Jackson have to be good. Both down-transferred from Washington State, and were far from dominant at Seattle and Charlotte. BYU is interesting. Did anyone explain Brandon Davies and the honor code to Egor Demin? Is he going to make it to March? Illinois is betting big on international newcomers. They have talent, but probably not a great shout to go deep. Auburn is too wild. They will knock off a highly ranked team, but even when they are good will always have a few stinkers in them. Rutgers would be betting on elite freshmen. It has worked before, but NIL makes college basketball older. Also, how does the western wing of the Big Ten impacts fatigue over the course of a season. It is a six hour flight to LA or Seattle from Newark. Oregon returns a nice core with Jackson Shelstad, Kwame Evans, Nate Bittle, Keeshawn Barthelemy, Bam Tracey, and Mookie Cook while adding Brandon Angel (13PPG on 57/45/81 shooting splits from Stanford), TJ Bamba (from Washington State and Villanova), and Ra’Heim Moss (15.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals at Toledo). The travel concerns are even greater for Oregon than Rutgers as they will be headed to the eastern timezone more than Rutgers will head west.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Love your assessment, but don’t totally agree with all of it. Alabama to me has the team with the top talent. There bench can be a borderline top 25 team as is imo. I like Alabama even better than bar none Kansas. Little surprised some other teams didn’t make your top 10, but you got a solid list.

UConn may not have the star power of the last 2 years, but they still have a sucker punch’s chance of cutting the nets down. I agree though, they’re going to struggle to be in the top 10.

We’ll see, Imo there are 66 teams that should make the tournament atm. Of course, they all won’t make the tournament too because of the untold future of small conference, etc. yet… It’s a better field of good teams this year though and lots of talent. I like Xavier too, but to me that team’s in the 20-30 range. I like USC better and nobody’s talking about them yet. They picked up some good transfers, but they do still have to play together… Kansas State is in a similar boat – Idk, but I’m excited pretty early on a season that hasn’t even started yet.

[HitsterParticipant]

Great breakdown of the likely NCAA contenders BTPH. A lot of sites have UConn as a top 4 team but like you I just don’t see it. They lost Sanogo and Jackson from the 2023 title winning team and still won last year but they had Karaban, Hawkins, Clingan and Newton all returning and had Castle as a star recruit. Now 4 of those 5 have gone they have returning experience in Karaban and Diarra but they have lost so much quality and although their transfers in look good they aren’t of the quality of those who have left IMO.

But I really want to see what Karaban does as the focal point and whether McNeely is as good a shooter at this level as what he has been up to now.. Tarris Reed Jr won’t be Clingan but he can be their big body in the paint and build on what he did at Michigan. But only Karaban and McNeeley would be on my draft long list for next year at this moment.

I just see this being a building season for UConn. The core of the recent team were there throughout their college careers and it may need time to build a new core and then add some top recruits for next season and some good transfers. Hurley has such a great reputation as a HC that UConn will be attractive to developing guys who wish to transfer in after their first or 2nd year and will always be in the mix for top recruits.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Speaking of UConn, looks like there’s a possibility of them joining the BIG12. Conference colonialism at its finest. Idk what to think of these constant expansions. It’s both better and worse at the same time I guess. UConn, Baylor, Kansas, and Houston in the same conference… eek!

[HitsterParticipant]

Isn’t UConn looking to get into the Big 12 as there will be more money and sponsorship there? It gives colleges bigger games throughout the season and even if the games are shared and teams don’t have such a winning record as they might have it wouldn’t impact their tournament position at all as a lot of the voting is weighted towards the quality and depth of the opposition.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

It definitely does bring more money. That’s what it’s all about. Big Ten and SEC have been doing it too. The biggest flaw is that everything is surrounding adding the best teams to few conferences and adding the best players and prospects to those teams could mean leaving terrible competition outside those conferences. It will be and is getting much much harder for a smaller school to land a diamond in a rough for more than a year. Generally speaking, it’s hard to win a championship with a team that hasn’t played together much regardless of talent. So if the next South Dakota State version of Baylor Scheierman comes around, he won’t be at South Dakota State for more than a year. He’ll transfer to a school like Creighton – or yet Baylor now – because the Big East Conference won’t even be big enough any longer to likely grab a transfer like him. It’s getting tougher and tougher for that mid major college to recruit someone that’s worth a damn in the grand scheme of things for more than a year. On the other hand, it does give some good competition and ratings for the biggest conferences. Those conferences get more money and generate it too. And everything is designed for them to do so. When two big time teams go head to head, we’ll see a ton of talent on the floor all at once. But Duke vs Prairie View as an example though could be a very bad blow out game. As far as tournament positioning, no it wouldn’t hurt UConn in this situation much – maybe just a spot up or down either way. But the Big 12 could have 12 teams make the tournament.

[HitsterParticipant]

The top recruits have often gone to certain teams and some have become a one stop shop for one and done guys. But other top coaches and teams have looked to build a very good team who may go deeper in March Madness but won’t have guys who all get drafted. But if the talent is condensed then the “star” teams will have good rosters in place they can slot a one and done guy into or even use them from the bench. Reed Sheppard was only a bench guy at Kentucky last year but is favourite to be RoY and again will be a bench guy. So you could have teams like UConn last season who were loaded and able to add Castle seamlessly into their line up.

Star players at “smaller” colleges who may not be one and done guys I can see getting NIL offers from bigger colleges so the talent may end up being more concentrated within certain teams or conferences. But teams will have NILs limits and guys will need playing time but within a 16 team conference if we take a 8 man regular roster that is 128 places so there is a lot of playing time within the Big 12 alone.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

exactly, that’s why it’s going to be even harder for smaller schools to go big time.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The roster construction of K-State is not great for me. The frontcourt is deep, and clearly assembled with Kansas in mind, but Hawkins was at his best when allowed to be more versatile where he could get centers out on the perimeter or take advantage of a smaller defender if they tried to guard him that way. That won’t be the case if they want to play Ugonna Onyenso and Baye Fall. Achor Achor is a mostly interior 4. David N’Guessan returns as a mostly interior 4. Irish Mobi Ikegwuruka can be listed as a guard, but if he is to see the floor next year has more of an interior game offensively. The resource gap between how they attacked the 4 and 5 as opposed to wing is quite stark. CJ Jones and Max Jones come from the 11th place team in the MVC and 10th in the Big West. It just feels a little riskier when reaching down to the bad teams of the mid-majors to fill gaps, especially when their body of work against Mountain West and up opposition is not great. Dalton Knecht came from a bad Northern Colorado team, so it is possible. Also, maybe they get more out of Brendan Hausen than Villanova. It is just an odd contrast. Dug McDaniel’s odd “suspended for 6 road games” thing probably comes with a back story. Tang has had success with small guards, so if he stays available should be good. As for USC, even if their collection of transfers, a decent number of whom are on team three or four, work out, they are going to be small by Big Ten standards. Michigan has Goldin and Wolf. Indiana has Ballo and Malik Reneau. Illinois has Zubcic, Booth, and Humrichous. Oregon has Bittle and Evans. I can go on. I think they are susceptible to getting beat up in the post and on the glass. Furthermore, if some of those journeymen players don’t like their role, how are those long trips going to work out? Musselman had issues with that last year at Arkansas, but didn’t have 5-6 hour flights mixed in.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Kansas State isn’t great on paper – but they’re good. They should be in the tournament hunt by end of season. The Big Ten is going to be an interesting conference this year for sure… This could be the new conference to beat atm. USC might not have a ton of talent up front, but the wings make up for that. And Saint Thomas is a great rebounding wing too. Sure he’ll have some size matchup problems against true bigs, but he’s no push over when his nose is after the ball. Both teams could be in that hunt.
I like Kansas’ lineup too, they’re deep and well rounded. Imo though, there’s a crapshoot of teams that have a chance to cut the nets down. Many being talented and deep teams that are well coached. While Kansas could be 1, they could also fall outside the top 10. All it takes is another good team to have the hotter game. The Big 12 is nothing to sneeze at. Kansas will be battling it out with Baylor, Iowa State, Texas and Houston from it’s own conference at the top and Kansas State and others right behind them aren’t going out easy either… I guess I’m saying Kansas is very talented and could even win the whole thing… but they might not even be the top team in the Big 12.
I’d definitely take my rankings with a grain of salt, but I’d do the same with published ones too. Everyone’s always wrong (including all of us here) and all the known rankings look too much the same.
I believe in some of these guys abilities to be good college players or perhaps prospects, but to play devil’s advocate, guys like Elmarko Jackson and Kwame Evans, Jr. are still in theory prospects. We don’t know if they’re truly great college players yet. Elmarko Jackson showed signs of improvement somewhat last year, but nothing to show he is the man yet. Kwame I’m rooting for and believe in, but too often last year he disappeared in games. On a small sample it appears by the numbers he can shoot. His form isn’t bad. But then he’s unproven still too. As much as I like the idea of Oregon itself, they’ve been talented for years, but it’s been a few since they’ve done anything with the talent they have.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The season is going to play out. Players who did not have especially good years before will emerge. Some transfers that have flown under the radar will alter seasons. Some freshmen will thrive, others will underwhelm. Some of these teams that are essentially newly assembled will work out. That is life, and part of the fun. For going into the season, I like the teams with the most certainty. Other than betting on Cooper Flagg and VJ Edgecombe to be good, I am comfortable with that top 7 or so being in the mix at the end.

I think the Oregon sophomores are good candidates to take a step forward as they played quite a bit, had some good games, but had a pair of grad students in Couisnard and Dante who ran that team. It is no guarantee, but is far from a simple guess. Now, Evans will need to improve his shooting if he wants to go to the NBA, but not necessarily to be a meaningful college player. Shelstad is probably an NIL-era 4-year player unless he grows, but could be a great player at this level. Owen Freeman seems to be the big man at Iowa after finishing his freshman year well. Ohio State seems to have a lot of its frontcourt eggs in the baskets of Aaron Bradshaw, Sean Stewart, and Devin Royal. Xavier Booker has reportedly gone from 215 lbs a year ago to 242 lbs. He needed to get stronger, so that should be a good thing. In the case of Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State, I don’t those guys taking a step forward makes them contenders unless that leap takes those guys to All-American teams. Still, it isn’t a blind assessment when it appears as though their teams are betting on them.

[HitsterParticipant]

How do people think Rutgers will go with two elite freshmen in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper incoming this season. Could those two make them a play off team?

Also any thoughts on Daniel Jacobson who is Purdue’s size for size long term C replacement for Zach Edey. I’d say he’d be a long term prospect who will be a 4 year college player.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I like Rutgers as a team with great talent, but don’t love Rutgers as a team overall. Too much shots for the 2 prospects who like to shoot a lot. This is in theory of course.

I agree with your assessment on Jacobson at least for now. We have to see how the season plays out of course though. Purdue might struggle without Edey.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Even if one was to assume Dylan Harper and Airious Bailey are as good as billed, Rutgers still has a lot of question marks. They will need either Emmanuel Ogbole or Lathan Sommerville to be able to give them quality center minutes. If they have to play Zach Martini exclusively at the center, then they are going to give up a lot of size in the league. I have some memory of Tyson Acuff from when Emoni Bates was at EMU, and his shot selection is not great. He is wild and likes to shoot, which I am sure will endear him to people who tune in to see Harper and Bailey. Jordan Derkack is an up-transfer from Merrimack, and that is a big step up. PJ Hayes and Martini were able to shoot at their last spots, but the team otherwise lacks proven shooting and the WCC and Ivy aren’t the Big Ten. If Harper and Bailey are lottery picks, Sommerville can give them 25-30 capable minutes per night, Hayes and Martini can be steady vets who hit open shots, Acuff stays within reason, and Jeremiah Williams adds a decent jump shot, then they will be a team Draft fans love and gets the kind of hype many of those Calipari Kentucky teams did. It is a lot of ifs. It is possible things come together, but it seems like a longshot.

[Author]

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