[Lotto StudParticipant]

At which point in time did the first team in the NBA Draft begin to select the first prospect based on potential instead of dominating the court prior to being drafted #1 overall?

[Scrooge McDuckParticipant]

 Probably since the 1970’s. High school prospects didn’t start getting regularly drafted until the early 2000’s. Or maybe earlier, with people like Johnathan Bender, 1999.

[tkieser1Participant]

 Look at all the number of high schoolers drafted in 2004. I think the impact of the draft was better when players had more history.  Although players legal right to play at 18 or after HS is the correct legal stance.  The NBA (and college) would be better with age limit of 20.  Maybe with the G league it will work going back to drafting HS again. 

[Evan_MilbergParticipant]

Depends on what you mean by “potential.” Do you mean prospects with no college experience or prospects who didn’t put up big stats in college but had potential to be great pros?

I feel like KG was the one who really opened the floodgates in terms of HS talent. Keep in mind, when the T-Wolves drafted him, the franchise was only six years old, and at the time, no player had gone straight from HS to the NBA in 20 years, so they were taking a huge risk. If that experiment fails, who knows what today’s league looks like?

In terms of potential shown in college, I feel like players didn’t really have a shot at being drafted high in the lottery until 2005, the first year of the one-and-done rule. That was the first time I think I ever questioned a draft pick. How could the Hawks take Marvin Williams, a guy with big “potential” but only put up 11 PPG, over the far more productive Chris Paul? Yet despite that historic mistake, the trend only grew. 

[Lotto StudParticipant]

“Depends on what you mean by “potential.” Do you mean prospects who didn’t put up big stats in college but had potential to be great pros?”

Yes! Thank you for articulating what I was initially trying to output.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

Since the lottery era, would anyone be in agreeance with Kyrie Irving to a degree as the top candidate aligning to the initial topic for discussion, or will it be Anthony Bennett by default?

[usfballerParticipant]

I’d say it started with Derrick Coleman (89 or 90) and became the norm by Michael Olowokandi (98 I believe).  After that, the lottery started filling up with underclassman and began a steep decline in the age and experience of lotto picks. After Kwame, Tyson and Eddy went in the first 4 picks the owners wanted out of high school gyms and in the next CBA they inadvertently created the one-and-done rule. 

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