[r377Participant]

Quite opposite players

I am not sold on Lonzo Ball as yet. Good size, but not really athletic or fast. Decent handle and shoots good % but he doesn’t take the ball to hole and when he does he isn’t a great finisher or passes out. His unorthodox jump shot works ok in NCAA but might not be as good in the pros against bigger and better PG’s.

Fox listed as 6″3 but looks like he might be a little bigger than that – good wingspan. Reminds me a bit of John Wall at Kentucky. Good body, outstanding athlete – fast and athletic. Can finish at the rim but is not a great jump shooter. His mechanicals look ok on the shot but only shoots 12% from 3. If he could shoot the 3 ball reliably I am sure he would be ranked right near the top of the mocks….

Who would you prefer as a pro ? Ball might have the better shooting % but I am leaning towards De’Aaron Fox. Great athlete, who should continue to work on his jump shot

[mowestenParticipant]

I got a chance to watch Fox play a lot of games in the summer time when he was playing in the EYBL and the thing I love about Fox is his competitiveness and his defensive ability. He’s Patrick Beverly at the defensive end, only he can actually play at the offensive end. I’m not going to say he’s John Wall because I’ve not seen him pass quite like Wall, but he’s similar in other ways.

Ball’s funky shot doesn’t really bother me, if he can make it he can make it … the delivery’s low release point might cause his one-on-one game to suffer, but there are a lot of wide open 3s being shot in the league right now. Shawn Marion made a lot of 3s in the NBA and nothing was more funky than that shot.

I’m actually one of those that thinks it actually might be close, even though that’s not conventional wisdom.

[binetParticipant]

 I hate Lonzo Ball’s archetype. He receives comparison to Jason Kidd he is not J.Kidd and their games are too different, it’s just the vision. He is said to be unique when there are like hundreds of guys his archetype in Europe, including former NBAer Alexey Shved (arguably less talented than Ball for sure, I am just talking play styles) or International competition standout Milos Teodosic (very similar to Ball, same size, vision, comparable athleticism, reluctance to attack the rim, off ball tendancies, BBall IQ, great 3PT shooting…), etc… It’s possible Teodosic would be a capable NBA player but it’s not by any means an archetype that I am confident would succeed in the NBA. And Ball raises more questions than Teodosic, who imo is his ceiling as a bball player.

Ball is overhyped and overrated right now because americans are not used to this kind of players but at the next level he will struggle mightily. He does lack athleticism and that is very visible on the defensive end already, where he makes a few good plays based on IQ but gets blown by everybody. He will not be able to create his shot and that will hinder his ability to create for others a lot. Ball almost only has his bball IQ for him, but that just makes him play older than his age, not necessarily encouraging as a prospect, since there is very little place for improvement in his game, a little too "mature" in my opinion, highlighted by his tendancy not to take midrange jumpers, etc… Playing too smart undermines his ability to learn from mistakes and his ability to learn going forward. What you see of Ball right now is not very different from what you are going to see 10 years from now at his peak since he is that refined, and that may qualify as decent to good, that’s nowhere near first pick or even top 5 discussion in this draft. Ball’s ceiling is middle of the pack starting PG, that’s not good enough.

Fox did an excellent work in his matchup against Ball, and to me he is a more interesting prospect since his flaws are things you can work on. He already proved against UCLA he was already a comparable player to Ball since, despite UCLA’s victory, he won the matchup. The fact that his game is less refined and has so much more room for improvement makes him hands down the better prospect imo.

 

 

 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 I actually think Fox is just as good as Ball, Fultz and Smith but in the NBA nowadays shooting is at a demand so he drops to the 2nd tier on that principle alone. Havent watched Ntilikina enough to say where he would rank.

[SlickBouncePassParticipant]

are you kidding me?  Have you seen Fultz play?  Fultz is amazing at understanding how to pace himself and his shooting, numbers aside, is so much better and natural than Fox.

There isn’t much that excites me about Dennis Smith, and I think Fox is a better defender than Smith.  Smith is limited due to his size.  Smith reminds me of Steve Francis and even a Marcus Smart…I hope he’s better than those two.

Fox is a great on ball defender, so if all you need is a classic PG with good handles, decent passing, and defense, and floor leadership then he is your guy.

If you want a smooth scorer whose defense isn’t as good as Fox, then you go Fultz.  You cannot replace Fultz’ scoring ability.

If you want a video game PG, you go with Dennis Smith.  Smith hasn’t shown me he can lead a team.  He’s only shown he can play 1 on 1 ball better than average, and he’s 6’2”.

 

 

 

  

[OhCanada-Participant]

That’s interesting I don’t see it that way. I’ve seen them all play plenty of times I pay $40 a month for the sports pack and have watched them at their best and worst. I think your vastly underselling Fox and Smith.

Fox can get to the rim at will. His speed with the ball in his hands is like Ish Smith but he is under control and composed.. His handles are great at he has great control of his body and ability to contort and shift his body. His midrange jumper isn’t bad and he can find that shot anytime. He can create offence similar to the way Westbrook does. Drive for the layup if the defender sags off pull up, if he presses blow by him for the layup, if help comes kick it to the open man. Simple but effective. That along with the fact that he is probably the best defender of the bunch makes him an elite prospect in my books.

Smith is just so talented. He never fails to impress me even in his loses and bad performances. He reminds me of so many players all the time there’s so many elements to his game. Shades of Chris Paul in the half court pick and roll, he is a bulldog and big time shot maker like Kyle Lowry, and his athleticism is unreal. He is very ball dominant but he always gets his teammates involved. To be fair I would say he has just as much talent around him as Markelle Fultz thier rosters overall talent are very comparable yet his results have been better.

Btw Fultz is amazing I agree about that.

[MatosParticipant]

Depends really on team needs. Ultimately Fox will be the better player if he’s put into a system where the focus is for him to develop his jump shot and grow as a number 1 option. Problem is, if a team like Boston selects him, he’s gonna be put on the back burner since IT runs the show. Then you have teams like Philly who need shooting and while he’ll get minutes, the pieces dont fit. If he lands somewhere like Dallas or New Orleans, I could see him becoming a star.

[SlickBouncePassParticipant]

a guy that can create his own shot desperately.  That aint Lonzo Ball.  Philly also needs a guy that can penetrate and hit the occasional open 3, and Fox’s numbers are pretty poor.

If I was to rank PGs for Philly out of this draft that sort of fits the bill:

Fultz: defense a little shaky, but can get buckets.  Hands down at the top.

Ntilinka: size allows for defense and has shown great improvement on set shooting.

Fox: Because of his ability to penetrate and dish.  You hope he becomes better at Finishing at the rim, and the mechanics become sound.

Ball: Nice outside shot but thats pretty much it.  We have the best passer in the league in Ben Simmons, why do we need another great one?  Someone besides Embiid has to shoot and get their own shot.

Smith: Looks great for a video game.  Not interseted although he can break a team down and get his own shot.

 

For Philly its simple right now, play Ben Simmons, see what you have at PG, then if you are satisfied with his ability to run it, draft Isaac and Monk at 4 through 8 wherever they end up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 Both have the potential to be really good players at the next level. Ball has great size for the pg position and might have the best passing skills of any player to come out of college in the past 20 years. The comparisons to Kidd are legit imo. He’s not the athlete fox is, but is no slouch in that department himself. He has a few bad habits that need to be straightened out, but I have very few doubts he’ll be a really good pro for a long time. 

Fox has basically everything you would want in a modern PG, besides the jump shot (which is not broken but still needs work). His speed in the open court is ridiculous and he has a good sense of how to operate in the half court as well.

Who I’d prefer would probably depend on which team I was taking them for, but I honestly don’t think I’d be disappointed with either one. It is at least worth noting, however, that when they matched up head to head earlier this year I thought fox got the better of ball for the majority of the game even though UCLA won.

 

 

 

 

[HitsterParticipant]

 Ball looks a better pure PG in my opinion but Fox isn’t to be underrated, He is lightning quick and a top level athlete but he doesn’t just rely on his athletic ability. He was a good understanding of the game, will do the dirty work and has the potential to be an excellent defender.

With the 5 PGs near the top of this year’s draft list, it’s very hard to get a definite handle on who is the best especially with Ntilikina being a bit of a mystery package.

Fox may not be rated quite as highly as the others on mock drafts but he could easily go before a lot of the guys above him in the draft. He is one of the top players on a powerhouse team so has the stage set for him.

I personally have Fultz and Ball a bit ahead of Fox and Smith, I need to see more of Frank N to really fit him into my mocks with any certainty compared to the other guys.

I see Fultz and Smith as being the sort of players who would have the star quality wow factor and you build around them whilst Ball and Frank N are the sort of guys who may compliment other young star players better or make them look better. Fox is slightly between the two camps IMO. 

Fox would not seem a natural fit in Boston, I think Miami might go star quality but he’d be right in the mix for Dallas, Philly, Minny etc given his all round game.

 

 

 

 

 

[binetParticipant]

 I think Fultz is number one right now because he fits anywhere. His game would be great at both guard positions and he has the tools to be able to play alongside anybody. His main weakness is his defensive motor right now, but it’s one end where he could end up good to great considering he averages a good number of blocks (in particular) and steals despite being off at times, so he has the instinctive tools in addition to his length.

Ntilikina also seems very versatile also, but perhaps that’s because he will end up as a wing. D & shooting are really impressive, not sold on his decision making yet. Showed great flashes in P&R or iso though. It’s hard to compare him to the others, competition different there. At least has the two most important skills: outside shooting and defense at an elite level, perhaps the best of the five in both. His body is impressive, being probably 6’6" (seems more than 1inch taller than Mushidi, also listed 6’5") with a self reported 7’0" wingspan and decent athleticism (looks like an outlier against euro pros, not sure how that fares against NBA guys, probably also very good since worse athletes like Luwawu-Cabarrot do look above average).

All 3 of Ball, Smith and Fox are less versatile imo. Maybe Ball can play off the ball at 6’6"but he would definetely look bad there (like an Alexey Shved bad) not able to use his best skills of floor general. All 3 have their own styles and probably fits different teams and style of play. Ball does not seem like a pick&roll guy, nor a dribble and pass guy, which considerably limits what he can do imo. I have him 5th mostly because of that. He needs a team with a specific offense and specific players around him. If you watch the NBA right now, very few teams could play him efficiently, and since he is not an elite scorer by himself he won’t succeed, especially with his weak body and below average athleticism (for those who disagree on that, just watch him being guarded by Adebayo and blown by Fox against Kentucky… Next level every player will have that edge on him). Fox is good, a lot of speedy defensive minded PG are starting on the NBA right now with questionnable shots like his (Shroeder, Mudiay, Payton, previously Rondo), he surely belongs to a reliable archetype, he needs to improve his jumper a lot from every distance though if he wants to be two-way and worthy or where is going to be drafted.I have him ahead of Ball but 4th. Ntilikina offers just everything Fox is offering,plus shooting and rare flashes of greatness and since I am not sold on Ntilikina 2nd… Smith to me is almost a sure fire star. Outlier athletes like he is always seem bad in the NCAA and are always great players. He can be everywhere and his style is what the NBA is today. He is getting better as the year advances also, showing more progress than the 3 other americans game after game.

I have Fultz>Smith>Ntilikina>-Fox>Ball right now, but I would not be surprised even if Ball ends up a great player.

 

 

 

 

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 if Dunn was coming out this year instead of last year, where do you rank him among this PG heavy draft projection right now?

[binetParticipant]

 Outside of top 5 that’s for sure, probably 8 honestly. I would take Aaron Holiday, Jawun Evans over him.

[llperez]

 did i read that ball is not athletic? Wow, guy has crazy hops, finishes dunks and alley oops every game, blocks shots above the rim, had some nice chase down blocks the other day. He has great bounce in his step when moving around and getting up and down the court. by all means criticize him or question his game for various reasons but to knock his athleticism is just crazy. 

[binetParticipant]

Any guard that can be guarded by Bam Adebayo will be unathletic in the NBA. That’s supposed to be an easy mismatch.

[terrancebowerParticipant]

 There is a lot more space in the NBA though, Bam is huge and is able to take up a lot of space on an NCAA court, NBA bigs won’t be able to do that. Ball is not an insane athlete like Smith or Jackson but he’s definitely not below average either.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Becoming really, really difficult. Even if you think that Fox is an elite athlete, is taller than 6’3 or has a decent wingspan (think around 6’6.5, so not exactly Rondo range), his shooting numbers so far are damn troublesome. Not only does he have the whole 4-32 from 3 thing (12.5% 3FG), he has just been flat out bad at shooting jump shots in general. According to Synergy, he is 11-62 (17.7% FG) in jump shots. That puts him in the 4th percentile, so, yikes. Catch-and-shoot? 2-20 (10% FG). 1st percentile. So he does well off the dribble, right? Nope. 9-37 (24.3% FG), but up to the 17th percentile! 

Now, onto Lonzo. He is a legit 6’6 (have legitimate measurement of him at 6’5 without shoes, plus a 6’9 wingspan). I know he did not have his best game against Kentucky. Heck, I was surprised when he did not take Bam Adebayo off of the dribble. But, he has shown a lot of positives outside of his excellent court vision. The awkward, low, across the body shot has been damn deadly, from NBA range on most occasions. He is 43-100 (43% 3FG) 3PT, making 2.4 per game. He is 95th percentile in jump shots, 89th percentile in catch-and-shoot and 99th percentile in shooting off the dribble (though the last one is on only 6-12 shooting). Not only this, but he has done better in isolation and is right on line with Fox in transition efficiency (66th percentile for Ball, 63rd for Fox, though Fox derives more of his offense through this).

You can say that Fox is a better defender on-ball, and I will give you that. Ball has shown to have some good instincts and works well in a team concept. As far as finishing close to the hoop, Ball is at 75% FG on his FG’s at the rim, Fox is at 67.7% FG on those same attempts according to hoop-math.com. Fox does get to the line more, and even shoots better from there (72.6% FT-67.8% FT in favor of Fox), though it certainly has not translated to the field and his lack of confidence as a shooter shows. Even if you worry about Lonzo getting his shot off at the next level, he does not at all lack confidence and it has paid off big time so far. 

If you are looking into archetypes, am much more worried about Fox going forward as opposed to Ball. With Lonzo’s playmaking ability and shooting, along with size being on his side, it is much easier to project him to the next level as opposed to a strongly possible (probable?) non-shooter. Look at the NBA’s top point guards. The top guys who struggle shooting are either much better at shooting off the bounce (John Wall) or absolute freak athletes (Russell Westbrook). Look at how much a guy like Rajon Rondo has struggled to stay relevant in the league. He was definitely more freaky long than Fox, but when teams could play off of him when the Hall-of-Famers faded out, he had a tough time. Am not calling Fox a Rondo type personality, am just giving an idea of what possible struggles he might face if his shooting becomes as much of an issue as it certainly seems to be.

Sticking with Lonzo Ball here and I do not see that changing with Fox. If their was anyone I would be fearful of projecting as far as archetype among guys seen as "top 2017 NBA Draft PG’s", it is Fox. He is a good athlete, there are things to work with, but his lack of shooting among his shot selection and even decision making really worry me. I am still not ready to have Ball at #1 (I have Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson ahead of him right now), but I am much higher on how he projects in the current climate of PG’s as opposed to Fox.

[llperez]

Some of my thoughts on ball as I have watched 75% of ucla games this year as well as numerous highschool games of his from both his jr and sr seasons.

Strengths:size, length, athleticism. He reads the court very well and doesn’t just make highlight passes, he will gladly swing the ball immediately from side to side without over dribbling and taking the air out of the ball. Notice Bryce Alford, Aaron holiday and Isaac Hamilton are all having career years playing with ball and not having to sacrifice anything from the guard spots, it’s not only because ball sets them up, but because he is willing to make the quick simple swing the ball pass when it is the right play and allow others to play their game.

His three range is money, don’t care what it looks like, half the threes he has taken this year have been from NBA range and the misses are almost always right on line. For all the talk about being a poor finisher who always passes out on drives, he has been finishing great. He also doesn’t ball watch and just float when he doesn’t have the ball. He cuts and runs the baseline and has been recipient of many alley oops etc because of it.

Now for some concerns:

Strength, he already doesn’t have the deadliest of first steps and thus can struggle beating guys off dribble but to compound it he doesn’t punish guys physically when trying to drive and instead can be redirected by defenders who give him a little forearm resulting in floaters instead ft’s on drives.

He has a good long distance jumper, but it’s a rythim shot with a low trajectory, he almost never takes anything in that 19-12 foot medium range and might struggle vs defenders who run him off the three and make him put it on the floor and look to score from mid range.

His ball handling is fantastic in open court with head of steam, but in half court situations when quicker defenders can make him stand upright and try to go one on one, he doesn’t show a ton of 1v1 break you down skills. Luckily he is smart and won’t force the issue to prove a point and instead will make the smart pass, but when your talking elite NBA player, you want a guy that can put his head down get where he wants, not just react to what defense gives him,

[BeastMode716Participant]

 also have quite a few holes in their game that will effect them in the Pro game that will force them to adjust & grow.

But b/c these guys enter the NBA so young there is really no way to know which player takes that turn & grows into something & the guy who can never adjust & suffers for it.

As Deep as this Draft is & it is crazy deep with potential I don’t see anyone who is at the level of a KAT or Simmons or Embiid or Parker or Wiggins or Wall or Unibrow……

This might be one of those Drafts where we look back & say how in the world did Devin Booker fall to #13!?!?!

 

 

 

 

[r377Participant]

I am glad Aran reads some of these topics. When I wrote this topic Ball was no 1 and Fox no 9.

Now Ball is down to 3 and Fox up to 6…

[llperez]

Could also have something to do with the stinker of a performance ball just had in his last game vs USC. Trojans went zone and ball couldn’t get anything going and turned it over like nobodies business. Took dumb shots, It was the type of game that could drop any guy a few spots.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

 i still think fox is a little overrated..not a top 10 pick in this draft..but still a late lottery to mid 1st rounder…

[r377Participant]

Fox is heating up….

Over his last 4

20ppg @ 57% and 5/9 from 3

[r377Participant]

 Great day for De’Aaron Fox, triple doubling with 31-10-15 while shooting 3-4 from downtown and 10-11 from FT

[Author]

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