[d-grizzlyParticipant]

I’m a bigtime grizzly fan. I think durant will have a more successful career than gay. As far as defense, i think rudy gay will outdo durant.

Both teams have young amazing talent and are getting better each year that goes by. both teams could easily be in the playoffs in the next 2-3 years depending on the next few draft moves/trades/free agent pickups.

I think okc could make it much sooner than memphis though.

Durant’s 20 and is incredibly difficult to guard. He will be able to create unstoppable go-to moves, and by the time he’s 25, he could easily be the most unstoppable scorer in the league.

Gay will continue to improve his jumpshot and make smarter decisions off penetration.

career averages:

Kevin Durant: 27-30ppg, 6-7rpg, 3-4apg, 1bpg, 1-2 spg, 2-3TO’pg Fg-46-48%, 3pt-38-41%. Ft’s-80-84%
I expect durant to achieve a few scoring titles and maybe 1-2 mvp awards. 1-2 nba titles.

Rudy Gay: 22-25ppm, 6-7rpg, 2-3apg, 2bpg, 2spg, 3TOpg. Fg-45-47%. 3pt-38-44%. Ft’s-78-82%.
I expect rudy to find ways to disrupt teams offenses as well. I don’t think he’ll be a #1 option for the grizz ever again..with the addition of mayo. He’ll become more mature about his shot selection and decisioning off penetration. Defensively, I give rudy the edge. no scoring titles, playoff runs, western conference finals…YEARS from now. nba title – i’m biased to be hopeful…but i need a few more years to see how he turns out. if rudy becomes a force in the league, doesn’t he have just as much a chance as the other dominant SF’s in the league?

[KevinDurantRocksParticipant]

Idk about all your predictions and im a big Kevin Durant Lover and I think he will do what you said even though im biased. But what you should do is compare Kevin Durant to O.J. Mayo

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

i think gay will be traded somewhere down the line in his few years. i really dont see any hope in the grizzlies whatsoever. But i think durant will blossom into a vince carter and help push the thunder to a winning record

[KevinDurantRocksParticipant]

No way more like Jordan

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

jordan is the best, no one can eva be like him. he basically single handedly changed the way b-ball is played today and inspired kids. plus durant wont even be a kobe. so i think carter or maybe mcgrady is a good choice for him

[Jebass5Participant]

No, u are wrong Durant is definitely one of the closest players to Jordan. I live in NY and i went to see him play against the Knicks (Russell Westbrook’s breakout game) and he was a silent scorer. Durant is not the type to raise the cloud and get u out of your seats but he will score 40 on you. He never misses in the paint his ball handling is great he repertoire of moves to get to basket are endless and he can shoot the lights out from 3. His team is so bad he might get kobeitis and go for 40 every game.

[jsdghifadgfuiogjkaghsdauigParticipant]

i want rudy gay to go to a different team…honestly. if he wants a big payday, i dnt think he’ll get it in memphis (due to their owner being very cheap).and Durant getting 30 ppg? Its possible but i dnt think he’ll get 30 lol…didnt mj average 30+ in his career?? Not saying durant is mj or anything lol….

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

i’m thinking more between 27-30ppg. meaning, no less than 27, but no more than 30….career average. if you watch the guy…he’s truely amazing.

[jsdghifadgfuiogjkaghsdauigParticipant]

watched him play? i live in seattle and watched every single game his rookie year…he is great. he did even better this year but 27 ppg seems suitable.

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

i dont watch him much cuz as u can see ima a knicks fan but comparing to to mj is way wrong. so is he better than mj, magic, bird, kobe?

[jsdghifadgfuiogjkaghsdauigParticipant]

T mac, crazyknicksfan….loong, great player from early stage and on, good comparison. never thought of that before.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

never meant any assumption of you not watchin. i think durant will turn out to an increddddddible player

[KevinDurantRocksParticipant]

I agree with the Mcgrady comparison but vince carter was just a highlight real player as i see it where Mcgrady makes the game easier for his teammates. I also like to say that through observation i see that Durant plays better with better players unlike those who get lost when other stars are added

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

that’s very true look at oden

[KevinDurantRocksParticipant]

Mix of Mcgrady and Dirk

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

>>Mix of Mcgrady and Dirk

thats true to

[rapidcif]

dude wherd u get that picture bruh

[jsdghifadgfuiogjkaghsdauigParticipant]

haha cus yea i think durant is great too! i wish they still played in seattle though :/ see, people in washington state are very cheap even though washington is a very wealthy state (im having a summer job and im making $8+ an hour! Min. Wage! thats great for a 16 year old like myself!). We have nothing to really look forward to…mariners arent as good as they should be, seahawks are on and off, and now the sonics are gone. We just have the storm…wtf? Thanks alot OKC. :/

[Mr.CreativeParticipant]

Just a few years into the league, Durant has blossomed into one of the top scorers last season. He even made it into the Top 10 league leaders in the scoring category. Just like you all mentioned, 27ppg, that’s really a superb scoring average for someone who came in just a few years ago. I believe two years ago if i’m not mistaken. He proved that he is a natural leader with a young team. He did not have a big star teammate to help him out, only good role players (Westbrook, Green, etc.). Durant is a great player.

On the other hand, just like d-grizzly mentioned, Gay is a good defender. That’s his advantage over Durant. He is consistent. Produces on each night. He can score on the court. In addition, I believe that he will be fine in the next few years.

Good comparison, I haven’t thought of that match up.

[NYK2010Participant]

Carter is just a highlight real have you watched any of his games with the Nets he doesn’t drive to the hoop as much. He’s been averaging about 5 ast a game with the Nets. Durant is going to be an elite player he could’ve been most improved player in the league, Gay has All-star potential Rockets stupid to trade him.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

i’d definitly like to see the grizz face okc years down the road. 4-5 maybe. It will be interesting

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

in the playoffs i mean. lol

[CavsDawgParticipant]

when is exactly is Durant going to win an MVP? those awards will be going to Lebron, Wade, Dwight and Carmello for the next several years

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

he’s 20. he’s played 2 years now. do the math. he could play for another 12-15 years depending on his health.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

Jebass5… ” his team is so bad ” … ? with westbrook and green you can safely make a comment like that?

[CavsDawgParticipant]

Durant is 20, thats fine…

Lebron is 24, Carmello is 25, Dwight is 23

all 3 of them are on teams that can win, the Bombers…. err thunder are a long way from actually competing. Don’t expect Kevin Durant to be in the top 3 in MVP discussions

[RickyRubio9Participant]

so glad the Rockets traded Gay because he wouldn’t be the player he is now with us and I’d take Shane any day of the week over Gay. He’ll shut him down and Shane was already a proven player in which Gay could have become a bust. Durant is said to be a hybrid of T-Mac and K.G. so the comparisons of T-Mac are good, but I think he is better then McGrady due to his drive and willingness to get better and he wants to be great. McGrady lost his passion, but supposebly he has found it once more, but eh…McGrady has said stuff like this before. Durant will be better then Gay and I don’t see Gay with the Grizzlies for more then 2 more years…

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

to answer your question, i’d think somewhere around 26-28 years old before he achieves mvp. so 6-8 years.

[apb540Participant]

D-Wade, D-Howard, Lebron, Durant, Mello, and CP3 are all going to compete for MVP’s over the nxt 10 years so saying that Durant will not be in the top 3 in MVP voting is nonsense because one or two of those players are bound to have a down year on a year that durant lights it up. I trully believe that if OKC has a good draft this year then Durant will win a scoring title, MVP, and possibly a Championship during his career.

[montrell_Participant]

i honestly think it would be wise to trade rudy gay as well
if anybody ever seen a game you would understand y
rudy is a ball hog, and he crumbles under the double team
so teams can contain him
mayo was a rookie last year and played better under double pressure
mayo is the future of the franchise and they gotta build the team around him
if we can get a defensive SF who dont need alotta touched to put points on the board
and a banger down low…Marc is bigger than pau but he’s still a gasol a finesse big

NO MORE RAIL THIN PFs

recent players-darrell arthur, hakim warrick, stromile swift, pau gasol

man we need a beast down low BAD

[crazyknicksfanParticipant]

>>dude wherd u get that picture bruh

who me? i googled it

[stoppre1213Participant]

He is the next no one, he is the next Kevin Durant, his game is nothing like Dirk, just like Lebron is nothing like Magic, its pointless to do these comparisons because the skill sets are so different. Bill Walton was supposidly the next Kareem…I don’t think so…

[Knicksboy34Participant]

I think you have something there. I believe Gay is very underrated.

Here is my projected numbers and stats for both KD and RG

Durant- 26-32ppg, 6-10rpg and 3-5 apg. 2 scoring titles, 1-3 MVP’s and a couple Rings ( different team)

Gay- 24-27ppg, 4-6rpg and 1bpg and 1spg. 2 D MVP and maybe a ring (again with another team)

I think Gay is gone in 2010 because he could get a huge payday to be a #2 option. So if a team (ill use NYK) get a superstar like a Wade, they may call Gay and give him like 5 years, 45 mil to be a #2 if he improves this season.

Durant on the other hand will be improving this season. He has that T-mac in his game except he could be a better rebounder. I think he leaves as well in 2011. He could to a team like the Clippers (no joke) and run that team to a title.

[apb540Participant]

Why would he leave??

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

Knicksboy and D-Grizzly you do realize that if either of them were to average 27ppg they would be above A.I., Kobe Bryant, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Shaq, Karl Malone in career scoring average. Maybe one of those players will average those stats as a career high, but I don’t believe that either will be all time greats like the players I listed. I don’t think it is fair to expect them to average those numbers.

[Knicksboy34Participant]

who?

Gay would leave because he will get big money as a young #2 option

Durant could leave due to market and more money….

[Knicksboy34Participant]

Oh im not saying career averages…im talking like for a good 2-4 year stretch

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

Ok, once again that makes more sense. D-grizzly stated that Durant would average 27-30 ppg for his career. Were he to average 28ppg, he would be 3rd on the all time scoring list behind Jordan and Wilt.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

the guy has the potential. plus i doubt he’ll play all 82 games a season every year of his career. think dude.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

to say he’d be 3rd all time is not even close.

[Knicksboy34Participant]

I think he will be good though…I think he could be a top 3 player by the end of this season.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

i have faith in durant to put 27-28 as a career average.

[Knicksboy34Participant]

I cant see that.

To have that-

lets say he play 15 seasons (he would need like 5 30ppg seasons.)

It’s not impossible but in the NBA today…i dont see it.

[nicemustacheParticipant]

idk man he isn’t even 21 yet…and as long as he can avoid a Grant Hill or Penny Hardaway type situation i don’t see him getting anything other than better…he can slash and shoot and he was 11th in the league at getting to line converting 85 percent….

[aarondsonixfanParticipant]

I agree that he won’t average 30 a game, but I think he will average more than 27. It was only his 2nd year, and he almost averaged 26 a game.. I’d say that his average will be around 28.6 or something like that.. to average almost 26 a game at the age of 20 is friggin rediculous.. He’s going to be really good in the years to come

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

That was not what I was saying at all. My point was that he will NEVER put up those career numbers. You(D-Grizz) stated that he would average 27-30ppg for his career in your first post. Im saying that that is rediculous and if he were to average those numbers like you are suggesting that would give him the third highest ppg average ever. He is good but he is not MJ and Wilt good.

[butidonthavemoney]

Yeah I agree. He is really good but I think some people are getting carried away.

[bonishswhsParticipant]

Is there anything Durant can’t do? I wouldn’t at all be surprised, given his skills, if he averaged over 30 for a few seasons in his prime. Also, people are way overrating Gay on here. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but he’ll never be close to Durant, at least offensively. I think Durant still needs to add strength, and once he does he will be a much better defender. If the Thunder can keep Durant and the rest of their core intact, I think them and the Blazers will be meeting in multiple conference finals not too far down the road.

[the27guyParticipant]

I was so interested this discussion that I just registered so I could comment.

I think the predictions at the beginning are interesting. I think you’re really high on Gay’s numbers. I don’t see him ever developing into a franchise guy, as your numbers suggest but I could be wrong. I’d like to focus on your numbers for Durant.

If you look at his shooting percentages (FT %, FG %, and 3PT %) he had a better year last year than the middle of your career averages. Thus, you assume he’ll likely not do any better, efficiency wise, than he did his second year in the league. Imagine if we assumed the same thing for Jordan, Kobe, Lebron, or Garnett? Look at how efficient they were in there second year–or when they were 20– all of them improved, as do most players, after their second year in the pros.

The thing that makes Durant so amazing is that, although he’s young, he flat out understands that jacking up loads of shots just to attain high per game averages isn’t going to win games. That’s something that Iverson and McGrady never understood. In fact, to see Durant’s potential greatness compared to McGrady, check this out.

McGrady’s highest shooting percentages:
FG% in 00/01 .457
FT% in 08/09 .801
3PT% in 02/03 .386

Durant’s percentages from LAST YEAR

FG% . .476
FT% .863
3PT% .422

As you can see, even if you cherrypick the highest percentages from TMac’s career, he is not even close to Durant.

I did a statistical analysis on the points per possession of each of the dominating young players from our generation–I know, I’m a nerd, forgive me I’m studying for the CPA exam–and I found something that really shocked me. Kevin Durant was not just on par with most of the guys you’d think were at the top of the pack, he actually was ahead of most of them:
Here’s the list of the top 6 20 year olds with their accompanying points/possession:
Magic Johnson 1.175 Points per possession
Shaq O’neal 1.137
Kevin Durant 1.133
Dwight Howard 1.095
Lebron James 1.084
Kobe Bryant 1.077

This was especially shocking because of the way Durant plays–lots of jump shots. The guy is a freak. When I computed rebounds and assists–assists and rebounds are equally weighted so the metric clearly favors big men– on a per minute basis into the model I found the following metric on a per minute basis for 20 year olds:

Shaq O’neal . .768 — Shaq increased for another 2 years after he turned 20 but then decreased yearly for the rest of his career, unlike most players
Magic Johnson .705— Strangely, like Shaq, Magic decreased yearly after his first 4 years in the league.
Lebron James .692
Kevin Durant .617
Dwight Howard .615
Chris Paul .597
Kobe Bryant .523

In the end, what does this prove? Nothing. It does however show that Kevin Durant, at 20 years old, has the statistics to compete with any other 20 year old in the history of the NBA. All I’m trying to say is that you can’t say the guy isn’t going to be the type to win a few rings or MVP’s. He’s not even 21. We have no idea how good he’s going to be.

[jcjParticipant]

I think Durant’s scoring will peak in the next few years as the Thunder try to get better. He will probably end up having most of his 30 ppg seasons in the next 5-7 years. Assuming he gets on a team with more balanced offense (perhaps a big man averaging Pao Gasol like numbers and a third scorer in the 15 ppg range), his scoring should level out at 22-25 ppg for the last 8 years of his career.

As for Rudy Gay, he would probably max out at 24-25 ppg for a couple of years, but have a career average in the 18-20 ppg range. He has the potential to be a better rebounder and defensive player, but Durant will be a better scorer and will have a better floor game.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

don’t get the wrong idea. i’m simply looking at two young players. Durant obviously has the best potential to be one of the best offensive players to step the floor. Rudy gay plays above average defense. I think he has the potential to outdo durant in defense…which is very likely.

rudy gay getting 22-23ppg, 6-7rpg, 2-3apg, 2spg, 2bpg, 2-3TOpg isn’t such a reach for this guy. Gay is young too. people forget that.

[Terrence WilliamsParticipant]

ummm

the Grizzlies are getting better eacvh year the goes by? Really?

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

if you look at the grizz, they went from having the worst record in 06-07, getting the 4th pick, to tieing the worst record in 07-08-ending up 29 and getting the 5th pick. in 08-09 they ended up 24th in the league with the 2nd pick. so in 3 years they moved up a total 5 spots. it’s actually 4 but they lost to minnesota and ended up with the 6th best of chances to win. not complaing though!!!! 2nd pick baby!!

that just sounds like a hater comment Terrence williams.

[xbadgerhustlerParticipant]

If you’re trying to say that Gay has ALL the potential in the world, than you’re right…

If the question is, will Gay ever become the best SF in the league, the obvious answer is NO! He just doesn’t have that mentality to be the best at anything. He’s a #3 option offensively because he’d rather not have all that pressure on his shoulders and when pressed to be THE GUY, his game follows suit and he tries to do too much.

I’ve been enamored by his athleticism since he was at UCONN, but I’ve also been disappointed by the seeming lack of emotion he shows for the game. I think that’s just who he is and everyone needs to accept that. If he played with intensity on defense he would be the best wing defender in the league… he just doesn’t bring it most nights.

One final thought, it seems to me that Rudy understands what it will take to reach the next tier of players, he simply can’t execute…. there’s a difference between knowing what you have to do and actually doing it…. I think that’s the main thing about Durant~ he goes out an does IT and he’s been doing it since HS~ see the mcdonalds all star game.

Rudy is the kind of guy who keeps you in the game throughout, but when you’re down 1 for the final possession, he’s not the guy you want with the ball, Durant is. Rudy would get off a decent shot, but Durant would connect and that’s the main difference.

[jcjParticipant]

Rudy’s mindset is similar to Derrick McKey who used to play for Seattle and Indiana. He had the potential to be an All-NBA player, but he just didn’t have the fire. He played hard, specialized on defense, and was content to be a supporting player even though he had the talent to be the star player. He might end up being a higher scoring version of McKey – averaging 18-22 ppg as team’s number 2 scorer and perhaps top wing defender, but not being the guy to carry the team on his back.

Am not writing him off yet though – he is still young and has a couple of years more to show he can be “the man” for a team.

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

Ya he has massive potential. He definitly seems unenthused at times in the game. That all changes with maturity or it doesn’t. i expect gay to mature mentaly and start playing to his potential. I’m not counting on gay to ever become a top 3 SF in the league. At best he could crack top 5 in he’s lucky. In terms of defensive SF’s though, i see him ((((becoming)))) a top 3 in the league.

Don’t count rudy out already. at 23, he’s still learning and creating the moves he’s going to use for the future and end of his career. He’s mainly been underrated in the league so far.. only because he’s on memphis. It’s such a shame that people look at it like that. He could easily surprise everybody here who downed on him because of the glimpses they’ve seen of him.

I’m not disapointed…and i’ve watched the grizzlies since vancouver days….why would you guys be?

[xbadgerhustlerParticipant]

look, IMO, rudy has had like 5 years to turn the corner into a BIG TIME player and he’s never done it…. You can keep waiting, but I’ve sort of given up. He’s an above average player and an elite athlete, no doubt, but if it hasn’t clicked with him yet, what makes you believe it will happen any time soon?

[d-grizzlyParticipant]

5 years? this was his 3rd year in the league. his surrounding cast has gotten better…and will be better as well after the draft. Plus, i don’t think he’s given up on himself. i simply won’t give up on an extremely gifted 23 year old. thanks though. i stick with my team and its players dude. i don’t just give up on players like that.

[Author]

Posts