[JNixonParticipant]

 6: Thomas Robinson, 6’9 244, PF, Kansas, Jr.

After having a breakthrough season for Kansas as a Jr. and unexpectedly leading them to the nat’l title game, Robinson is a likely top 3 pick…Really broke through after putting up monster “per minute” numbers behind 2 lottery picks (the Morris twins) in his Soph. season, and was probably the most talented frontcourt reserve in the country that year…Dealt with a lot; including injuries, and his mom and grandmother’s (within a month of either) deaths as a Soph., but still was accepting of his role and very effective…That shows he’s strong mentally…Was one of the very best college players in the country as a Jr…Consensus 1^st Team All-American, Big 12 Player of the Year and Nat’l Player of the Year runner-up…Physically, Robinson is very nice…He is a hair under 6’9, but that isn’t a concern really…He has a very sculpted 244 lb frame and an outstanding  7’3 wingspan  to make up for any height worries…Athletically, Robinson is explosive and live wired…He has high caliber quickness, agility, leaping ability and speed for a PF prospect

On offense, Robinson is a very energetic, high motor, and feisty competitor with a nicely developing game…Improved his skill level beautifully at KU, another Danny Manning student who got better in the post in Lawrence…He makes a lot of his impact around the hoop…He played in a pretty physical Big 12 conference, and didn’t back down at all from the punishment…In fact, he dealt out most of the punishment…He seals with a purpose and gets into a wide base down low, and is aggressive calling for the ball, which makes him a good target for KU players to get him the ball…Shows pretty soft hands…When Robinson gets the ball in the post, he usually is very aggressive backing down, and is able to get good positioning for higher percentage looks…Shows the ability to make jump hooks with both hands within 8 ft. of the rim…Has a nice spin move when he cant beat bigs with his initial drives around the rim…Has a turnaround jumper too, when he flips his left shoulder…Decisive, and wont take a lot of time getting into his moves…Usually is at a decided quickness advantage against his matchups, and tries to exploit that as often as possible…1^st step is devastating for a PF, and will be a factor facing up, even against quicker PF’s but definitely against slower footed ones…He doesn’t have the best feet and isn’t the most diverse post up option though…When he cant use his quickness as much to simply get around his matchups, he becomes a less effective scorer…Robinson also travels a bit when he has the ball, but often the refs didn’t call it…He’s a strong player, but not quite to the point that he can simply overpower true NBA PF’s, unless he’s defended by a smaller PF…Despite that, Robinson does have enough strength to convert through contact…Is able to finish at the rim very well because of how reactive and explosive he is getting off the floor…Goes up and finishes with high-level explosiveness and power…Doesn’t need time to gather to slam at the rim, powerful 2 footed leaper…As a jump shooter, Robinson is improving and is a threat from around 18 ft…Has a good, compact form, and shows nice mechanics when he has daylight…Is able to even make pull-ups from mid-range…Was a 50% 3-point shooter as a Jr., on 14 attempts…Probably wont be taking 3’s in the NBA though, much more “easy” looking form around the mid-range area…He isn’t quite as effective against good contests though…Still somewhat of a work in progress with shot, even with his much improved numbers…Still, he isn’t a bad pick and pop option, especially down the line…Will be an excellent transition player, given his ability to run the floor and his athleticism…Has some ability to handle the ball in the open floor, shows a solid handle for a PF…Not anything to write home about as a passer…Usually looked to score when he got the ball…Kansas played hi-lo on offense a bit, but Robinson was usually low in these sets because he’s a better finisher than passer from the high post…Doesn’t have the world’s greatest feel for the game…Can struggle against double-teams…Going to be a pick and roll threat, opens up well and has the athleticism to roll and finish with authority…A high-level offensive rebounder, gets points off those kinds of effort plays…Has the makings of a high energy player, but one who has solid enough scoring ability to not be looked at in the usual sense of the high-motor label…Mediocre FT shooter (improved commendably every year though), but plays with enough aggression to get to the foul line a bit

Defensively, Robinson is decent but not great…He has the length and athleticism to defend PF’s effectively…One thing he does have is a junkyard mentality and a willingness to bang, so he will easily be able to compete…Doesn’t mind doing the dirty work…Wonn’t make game-changing plays though…Will be able to defend the pick and roll very well, and has the athleticism to stick with perimeter players some too, as he showed at Kansas at times…Not much of a shot-blocking presence, which is a surprise considering his length and reactive leaping skills…Does show live hands and will get some steals for you though…Remarkable rebounder, was a double figure rebounder and one of the best in the nation on the glass, even as a Soph. in limited minutes

Robinson is going to be an extremely useful player, and will be a likely starter immediately for a team…He can score pretty effectively, especially for a guy with a developing and somewhat raw game…His motor and aggression will allow him to compete on both ends of the floor well and it allowed him to make up for the fact that he isn’t exactly a polished operator on either end of the floor…He rebounds extremely well and that will translate, as will his ability to hustle to make plays but I just don’t think he will be a star quality player, even though he has the ability to be a great frontline starter…His work ethic could prove me wrong about him being a star, but he will at worst be a steadying player for a team with his athleticism and work ethic…Will be able to contribute nicely as a rookie, but he will have some things to learn and some skills to polish

 

5: Jared Sullinger, 6’9 268, PF/C, Ohio State, Soph.

A highly regarded recruit out of HS since he was a 9^th grader, Sullinger checks in…Had a highly prolific and productive 2 season career in the Big 10 for some high caliber OSU teams, and somewhere along the lines people forgot that and his draft stock has dropped…Led OSU to the Final 4 as a Soph…Easily one of the most skilled players in the draft, and he did so while winning at a high rate in college…Stepped in as a Fr. and immediately was probably the best player in the Big 10…2-Time 1^st Team All-American, Wayman Tisdale Nat’l Fr. of the Year, 2-Time Wooden Award Finalist…Physically, Sullinger has good and bad…He stands 6’8, which is probably about an inch shorter than prototypical height for a PF…He does, however have a 7’1 wingspan to help compensate…He also have a wide 268 lb frame, which is effective especially considering his position, but it also limits him in some ways…He has the kind of size that could bloat and he will have to monitor his weight constantly…His ideal size would probably be closer to 260 than the 270 he has been hovering around…His weight is the biggest concern with teams, and it has affected his stock considering that many similar sized PF’s have flamed out and not been effective in the NBA

Offensively, Sullinger might just be the most skilled frontline player in the entire draft…His post game is outstanding, especially considering his age…Wide-hipped and has the butt and lower body strength to seal against his matchups and establish position in the low post very effectively…Understands how to get in position to get the angles and scoring opportunities he likes…Feathery soft touch…Exceptional hands…Able to score effectively with both hands…Never appears rushed and knows when to go into his moves and when to dish…Reads weakside rotations well, even if he doesn’t have the quickness and athleticism to keep some his shots from getting altered/blocked…High-caliber awareness, great passer out of double teams…Extremely efficient finisher around the rim, especially considering most of his shots are below the rim…Has more moves than any PF prospect in the draft…Likes to use his turnaround jumper the most, and was able to hit that shot very consistently when he turned his left shoulder…Not bad spin move…Makes great use of his pivot foot…Also is ambidextrous his jump hooks within 8 ft., and seems to just have a knack for making shots…Uses the glass extremely well…He does get less effective when faced with taller, more athletic frontlines, but that can be attributed largely to the fact that he played C and he wont be asked to do so in the NBA most times…Still, it is concerning and he will have to adjust because many of the most college C’s he faced were NBA PF sized and he did struggle to be as effective against the matchups who were of NBA caliber athleticism…He probably will struggle with getting his shots blocked and might not be a super efficient scorer early on…Lacks quickness and doesn’t elevate, mostly relies on getting shots above his man…Wont get you very many dunks…Able to face up and hit shots…Has range out to 22 ft., and was a 40% shooter from deep in college on a hair over 1 attempt a night…Is best from mid-range though…Doesn’t have picture perfect mechanics (deliberate) and his elevation is low, and is better when he’s left open with his shots when he shoots from range…Might not be able to stretch as much in the NBA given how methodical his shot is early on, but it is essential that he gets consistent with it…Not going to handle the ball and get to the rim in the NBA…Got to the foul line at a higher rate than any frontline player in the draft, and was a mid-70% shooter when there…Finished through contact really well, as you’d expect for a guy with his strength and girth…Monstrous offensive rebounder…Doesn’t quite run the floor well…Seems to be a good prospect if you are into more of a slower paced, half-court oriented team…Doesn’t make many mistakes at all for a player who was gameplanned and used as heavily as he was…Low turnover rate…Seems to be a very high character player and will probably be able to adjust, given that he will be coachable…Should be able to score immediately in the NBA

Defensively, Sullinger will probably struggle and be mediocre…Doesn’t have the athleticism or quickness to defend the pick and roll that well, even though he probably will have the effort…Got a block a night in college, but its tough to see him getting many blocks in the  NBA…Not a quick handed defender…Is a serviceable positional defender, even though he could struggle with quicker or tall PF’s…His weight concerns are most visible on the defensive end, even though it will help him not budge on backdowns…Plays like a C on D, and that would be more ideal if he were taller than he is…Has the fundamentals and IQ to get charges and will go after loose balls…Steady rebounder

Sullinger is a winner…One who scores well and is a very high IQ player…His moves are unquestioned and so his skill level, but the athleticism and weight concerns are legit, probably makes him a lower upside player…I think he will adjust in the NBA, and I think he is smart enough to work on his jumper though…His stock has dropped, but he has the intangibles and skill level to be a steal if he drops out of the top 10…He could have an Elton Brand type career at best, and a Luis Scola type career at worst

[WizardofOzParticipant]

So this means you have Jeremy Lamb top 4???

[JNixonParticipant]

 Yessir. Let me guess, you dont like his game either huh

[ChewyParticipant]

For giving some love to Sullinger. The kid dominated college and missed a miniscule ammount of games for someone who got a medical "red flag." People are still talking about how stupid it was to pass up Blair and yet are willing to do it all over again with Jared. People (including myself) always talk about how great it is to get a coach’s kid eithier in college recruiting or NBA drafting. Sullinger is a coach’s kid who has the best offensive skillset of any post player in this draft.

Screw the Docs I see no way this kid isn’t a great pro for whoever gets him.

[GrandmamaParticipant]

JNix I’d like to see your full list from 2011, any way you can post the link to the 2011 thread?

[WizardofOzParticipant]

^

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/2011-version-jnixon-iggy9s-countdown-draft-60-prospect-30-days-archives

You’re welcome.

[akhan786Participant]

Damn Jnixon…you were spot on with your Kyrie Irving analysis last year…

LINK

[SubZeroParticipant]

Hmm Sullinger at #5…interesting

Do you make this list completely and then start the forum posts, or do you make changes down the line as you’re posting them?

[JNixonParticipant]

 I made my list like a few days before I posted my 60th and 59th prospect reports on here. I dont change it as it goes along, because workouts and things like that dont really change how a prospect really plays, especially compared to a  30+ game season. I’ve seen them in game situations and that is more accurate gauge of how good a prospect they are than how they perform in open gym and at combines and academy’s.

[Author]

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