[jjj10manParticipant]

 I got this idea Youtuber Black9ne’s video on "Best NBA Player by draft position"

First lets look at the #1 picks since 2009:

09: Blake Griffin

10: John Wall

11: Kyrie Irving

12: Anthony Davis

13: Anthony Bennett (exception)

14: Andrew Wiggins

15: Karl Anthony Towns

16: Ben Simmons

As you can see, 6 of these 8 players are  clearly or on pace to be Perennial all-stars (7 if you count Simmons)

But lets look at the #2 pick at the same time

09: Hasheem Thabeet

10: Evan Turner

11: Derrick Williams

12: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

13: Victor Oladipo

14: Jabari Parker

15: Angelo Russel (I had to)

16: Brandon Ingram

None of these players are on pace to make the HOF (now that Jabari got injured) and the only ones that have a chance to be mutiple time all stars is Brandon Ingram and Jabari Parker.

This drop off is too significant, especially with picks like 15 having Giannis and Kawhi. What you you think? Is this pick cursed? It seemed like Jabari was playing good but the curse of the number 2 pick got a hold of him.

[BrentSuriaga01Participant]

1984 – Sam Bowie

1986 – Len Bias (though I think he could have been a great NBA player, sometimes, shit happens)

  2002 – Jay Williams

2003 – DARKO!!!!!

2004 – Emeka Okafor (He used to be good though but…)

2005 – Marvin Williams (Has become a pretty nice role player)

2008 – Michael Beasley

So yes, #2 pick has produced some of the bad players.

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 I could actually think of even more than that like Danny ferry, stromile swift, Shawn Bradley. 

However, to be fair there have also been some guys who have completely lived up to the hype at number 2 such as Jason Kidd, Alonzo mourning, Durant, lamarcus Aldridge, Steve Francis. 

Some other number 2 picks like Antonio mcdyess, Mike Bibby, Keith van Horn were all-star caliber players in their prime. And it’s still really too early to tell what type of careers guys like Parker, Russell and Ingram will end up having. 

Overall, I’d say it’s been a pretty mixed bag of players drafted second.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sewok15Participant]

 You are onto something because you could make the case for taking the #3 overall pick over the #2 overall pick in all those drafts. 

09- Harden Obviously would be #1 over Blake the way he has played in Houston.

10- Favors has been considerably better than Turner although not spectacular.

11-Kanter at least has found a role in the league despite his allergy to defense.

12-Beal has been ballin out lately while MKG still cannot shoot. 

13-Otto Porter leads the league in 3 pt percentage this season and has been a break out player some may still prefer Victor but I am not one of them.

14-Embiid would be the #1 pick in this redraft even with his injury issues because his ceiling is just that high.

15- Okafor is in a rough situation but is an effective scorer when on the court. Russell is shooting under 40% but shows enough flashes that this is kind of a toss up for me. 

16- Jaylen Brown certainly has a more NBA ready body than Ingram…it seems like he might have a more NBA ready game as well which is something not many of us expected. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

 First off it took me a good five minutes to get past the "none of these players are on pace to make the HOF (now that Jabari got hurt)" bit. I don’t know why, that just sounds funny at this stage. 

Taking aside the proposterousness, yeah a lot of those guys picked at No. 2 don’t look too good. Oladipo is a nice player. MKG is alright – though not special – Thabeet and DWill are hot garbage. Russell and Ingram are too soon to claim and Turner has been averageish. 

 

 

[jjj10manParticipant]

 Well the only reason I said they aren’t on pace to make the HOF is because #1 picks at the same time (Blake, Wall, Kyrie, and Anthony Davis) are.

[BeastMode716Participant]

 Although even though Ingram is really struggling I would argue he was the only choice at #2 in what was basically a one player draft. & as much as it hurts to remember the 2015 Draft Russell belongs on that list as of now.

What’s crazy as you look thru NBA Draft history is not only how many hits on #1 & misses on #2 but there are a Ton of Big Time Players at #3

I’ll go backwards from here:

Joel Embiid 2014

Bradley Beal 2012

Derrick Favors 2010 (a stretch I know)

James Harden 2009 (Thabet #2)

Al Horford 2007

Deron Williams 2005 (Considered a top 10 player at one point)

Carmelo Anthony 2003

Pao Gasol 2001

Baron Davis 1999

Chauncey Billups 1997

Grant Hill 1994

Penny Hardaway 1993

Chris Jackson 1990

Sean Elliot 1989

Miachael Jordan 1984

Dominique Wilkins 1982

Kevin McHale 1980

Pistol Pete Maravich 1970

Bill Russell 1956

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 The last four #2 picks look pretty good too me.

[GronounoursParticipant]

 Here is my guess: it’s just a random phenomenon. Statistically, this kind of oddities happens. No "curse", no need to come up with some fancy explanation.

[HitsterParticipant]

The curse of the number 2 pick has been a long running story – Same Bowie, Len Bias within a couple of years. Also Grant Hill and Antonio McDyess both had significant injury issues which cost them a lot of their prime years. Add in all the more recent guys mentioned above and we do have a case.

Imagine if Durant had gone over Oden then the case would have been insane.

[HitsterParticipant]

The curse of the number 2 pick has been a long running story – Sam Bowie, Len Bias within a couple of years. Also Grant Hill and Antonio McDyess both had significant injury issues which cost them a lot of their prime years. Add in all the more recent guys mentioned above and we do have a case.

Imagine if Durant had gone over Oden then the case would have been insane.

[holefillers1Participant]

 I think its a combination of having to decide between the second or third best player in the draft who also has immense potential.  I would say half the time the potential doesn’t maturate.  Hopefully your left with a player like Evan Turner or Marvin Williams to at least contribute to your top 8.  

[binetParticipant]

My guess is it’s an artifact of the bad BPA strategy. A player needs more than anything to fit the team where he is headed early in his career. Lots of players get hype and often at 2 you are left with one pseudo-star available that does not shine enough to be the number 1 yet shine enough for taking someone else a very hard thing. Think Lonzo Ball this year (not that he is going to bust, we have no idea, we even all think he is going to succeed): he has way too much hype for a team to have the guts to take a better fit or ceiling prospect over him at 2. Fans will be disappointed if you do not take him etc.

There are only so many talents that are so incredible that they deserve a BPA strategy and building around them/shifting your team at the nba level, and imo these talents are most likely going to end up number one every time or, à la Embiid, have an injury concern. The next talent after the number one pick has probably very less chance to be the same caliber and thus, despite what teams do, is not worthy of a BPA pick, as only one of many talents that needs fit and another big development jump to perform at high level and become a star. 

Teams pick talent and hype over fit at 2, when outlier talent is just (in most cases) no longer available and the best players will be good fits that will develop well because of it.

 

 

 

 

[TallmanNYCParticipant]

 It is just a coincidence. But it points to another issue. There is usually only one can’t miss guy in each draft class. These guys are just rare. The number two pick has been bad. And as stated above you could go back further than 2009 and find more examples of bad number two picks. But asside from a bad stretch, what is happening is that except for the one can’t miss guy, the NBA draft is basically a crap shoot even starting with the second pick. There is this huge value difference between picking one and two, but basically very limited value difference from 2 through 5 after that. Then from 5 through 10 there is another drop. After the 10th pick, the picks are all pretty much the same through nearly the end of the first round. You have about as good a chance picking a star at number 11 as you have at number 20. 

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