[valentine]

 …to say that Arizona and LSU will not make the NCAA Tournament?  Going off of Rivals from 2003-2014, thirty-four out of 120 teams who had a top ten recruiting class missed the NCAA Tournament that year.  That’s essentially three teams per year who had a top ten recruiting class.  I think that twelve years of data is a decent enough sample size to go off of.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Its pretty crazy to say both LSU and Arizona will miss it. LSU has Ben Simmons arguably the best player not in the NBA and Sean Miller will get the most out of his team. Wrong two schools to doubt in my opinion.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Its pretty crazy to say both LSU and Arizona will miss it. LSU has Ben Simmons arguably the best player not in the NBA and Sean Miller will get the most out of his team. Wrong two schools to doubt in my opinion.

[ph90702]

Which two to three schools with top ten recruiting classes will miss the tournament?

[ph90702]

Which two to three schools with top ten recruiting classes will miss the tournament?

[oogellsParticipant]

 Texas A & M and Louisville, tho I am a pretty big Deng Adel fan

[oogellsParticipant]

 Texas A & M and Louisville, tho I am a pretty big Deng Adel fan

[Andrew1984Participant]

 I really wish Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin would’ve stayed another year so we could see how things would’ve come together in Baton Rouge. I also really wanted Malik Newman to join Simmons and Blakeney. 

[Andrew1984Participant]

 I really wish Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin would’ve stayed another year so we could see how things would’ve come together in Baton Rouge. I also really wanted Malik Newman to join Simmons and Blakeney. 

[NBAjunkie81Participant]

 It would have been great to see Mickey & Martin return to play w/ Simmons – I don’t understand why these guys where are border line first rounders leave college early – first, when you get older (like me) you realize that you would give Every cent you have to go back & experience life on a college campus again. Second (and more obvious) is that 2nd rounders do not get a guarenteed deal – many of these guys on get a partial contract & are stashed overseas… Martin barely squeeked into the 1st round w/ Memohis at #25 & Mickey was taken 8 picks later at #33 by Boston but he did fall to the 2nd round… W/ all the exposure Simmons will draw, had these guys stayed in school they would have been drafted a lot higher I would think… look at Chris Dunn at Providence, he was a mid to late 1st round prospect who seemed to be falling, he returned to school & experts are predicting a big jump in his draft status… I absolutely agree w/ the guys who are Lottery picks or 1st rounders in general leaving early – it’s a Lottery ticket but for the guys on the Bubble, I think they are getting bad advice from adults who don’t have their best interest at heart…

[NBAjunkie81Participant]

 It would have been great to see Mickey & Martin return to play w/ Simmons – I don’t understand why these guys where are border line first rounders leave college early – first, when you get older (like me) you realize that you would give Every cent you have to go back & experience life on a college campus again. Second (and more obvious) is that 2nd rounders do not get a guarenteed deal – many of these guys on get a partial contract & are stashed overseas… Martin barely squeeked into the 1st round w/ Memohis at #25 & Mickey was taken 8 picks later at #33 by Boston but he did fall to the 2nd round… W/ all the exposure Simmons will draw, had these guys stayed in school they would have been drafted a lot higher I would think… look at Chris Dunn at Providence, he was a mid to late 1st round prospect who seemed to be falling, he returned to school & experts are predicting a big jump in his draft status… I absolutely agree w/ the guys who are Lottery picks or 1st rounders in general leaving early – it’s a Lottery ticket but for the guys on the Bubble, I think they are getting bad advice from adults who don’t have their best interest at heart…

[T Rex]

 Martin and Mickey are both 21 year old men who already had two years of the college experience. It’s not like the third year of college is so amazing it’s worth more than 4-5 guaranteed million, which even Mickey negotiated for as a top 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

All because you want to see them with Simmons?

 

 

[T Rex]

 Martin and Mickey are both 21 year old men who already had two years of the college experience. It’s not like the third year of college is so amazing it’s worth more than 4-5 guaranteed million, which even Mickey negotiated for as a top 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

All because you want to see them with Simmons?

 

 

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

1. Kentucky- long shot with Ulis, Poythress, and Lee also back, but 2012-13 happened. 

2. Duke- Similarly with Kentucky, but 06-07 happened when DeMarcus Nelson was the only upperclassmen in the rotation. It might be fair to say that if not for name appeal, they probably would have battled the bubble after going 8-8 in ACC. This year’s Duke team returns Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Plumlee 3 as upperclassmen. Jefferson and Jones will be in the rotation, and Plumlee 1 gives hope for Plumlee 3 emerging as a senior. 

3. Arizona- I would be really surprised. York, Pitts, and Tarczewski are experienced upperclassmen. Jackson-Cartwright and Ristic are also guys who should also be contributing. It is possible a couple of their freshmen are in the same boat Jackson-Cartwright and Ristic were last year.

4. LSU- They were 22-11 and are replacing 32 points, 19 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 blocks per game in Mickey and Martin on a team that had a six man rotation with "the" recruit and Craig Victor in mid-season. I was not overly impressed with anyone on LSU beyond their big men.  It is possible Ben Simmons can live up to all the hype that surrounds "the" recruit every year, and LSU still lose 10+ games, which would at least put them on the bubble.

5. OSU- I think they are a candidate. No Russell, Thompson, Scott, or Williams. Loving will likely be the only upperclassmen in the rotation, and it is really two recruiting classes getting their first run at Big Ten basketball with non-conference games against Kentucky, UConn, Memphis, and Virginia. It could be a big ask if one of their recruits or sophomores do not have a Russell-esque season.

6. Kansas- They are in. Their returning players were better college players than the ones who left, and Bill Self always recruits to bring in more.

7. Cal- They were 18-15. They return Wallace, Mathews, Bird, and Singer and add a heralded duo. Big Kingsley has a year under his belt in the US. I can see why there would be optimism in Cuonzo Martin’s second year, but it is hard to consider them a lock coming off 18-15.

8- TAMU- They are in. Three seniors who were playing 30 minutes are returning, plus Anthony Collins from USF and another year under the belt of Alex Robinson, and three of the highest acclaimed recruits out of Texas and because it is Texas also the country. They only bad word about them is that Avery Johnson Jr left. 

9- Louisville- I don’t know what kind of smoke there will be from the hookers and recruits story. It would have been difficult for me to think they would have missed the tournament because of Rick Pittino’s record, but it is one more red flag. They lost their four 30 minute plus guys. I liked what I saw from Snider down the stretch, but he is far from a certainty. Among Onuaku, Mathing, Mahmoud, Johnson, and the freshmen, do they have big men who can contribute at both ends? Trey Lewis and Damion Lee give them a much needed shooters and overall scoring. If one figures that those two transferred to Louisville to better position themselves in the eyes of NBA scouts, and a couple of their freshmen think they are destined to be one-and-done, can they mesh together to get towards the top of a tough ACC? 

10- Washington- It is an entirely new team, which is not a bad thing. They were not just 16-15, but 5-14 in the Pac 12. Andrew Andrews and Dorsey are the only returnees from the rotation. The only other upperclassmen is a junior college transfer. It looks a bit like the OSU situation without the recent history of OSU in terms of "next man up."

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

1. Kentucky- long shot with Ulis, Poythress, and Lee also back, but 2012-13 happened. 

2. Duke- Similarly with Kentucky, but 06-07 happened when DeMarcus Nelson was the only upperclassmen in the rotation. It might be fair to say that if not for name appeal, they probably would have battled the bubble after going 8-8 in ACC. This year’s Duke team returns Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Plumlee 3 as upperclassmen. Jefferson and Jones will be in the rotation, and Plumlee 1 gives hope for Plumlee 3 emerging as a senior. 

3. Arizona- I would be really surprised. York, Pitts, and Tarczewski are experienced upperclassmen. Jackson-Cartwright and Ristic are also guys who should also be contributing. It is possible a couple of their freshmen are in the same boat Jackson-Cartwright and Ristic were last year.

4. LSU- They were 22-11 and are replacing 32 points, 19 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 blocks per game in Mickey and Martin on a team that had a six man rotation with "the" recruit and Craig Victor in mid-season. I was not overly impressed with anyone on LSU beyond their big men.  It is possible Ben Simmons can live up to all the hype that surrounds "the" recruit every year, and LSU still lose 10+ games, which would at least put them on the bubble.

5. OSU- I think they are a candidate. No Russell, Thompson, Scott, or Williams. Loving will likely be the only upperclassmen in the rotation, and it is really two recruiting classes getting their first run at Big Ten basketball with non-conference games against Kentucky, UConn, Memphis, and Virginia. It could be a big ask if one of their recruits or sophomores do not have a Russell-esque season.

6. Kansas- They are in. Their returning players were better college players than the ones who left, and Bill Self always recruits to bring in more.

7. Cal- They were 18-15. They return Wallace, Mathews, Bird, and Singer and add a heralded duo. Big Kingsley has a year under his belt in the US. I can see why there would be optimism in Cuonzo Martin’s second year, but it is hard to consider them a lock coming off 18-15.

8- TAMU- They are in. Three seniors who were playing 30 minutes are returning, plus Anthony Collins from USF and another year under the belt of Alex Robinson, and three of the highest acclaimed recruits out of Texas and because it is Texas also the country. They only bad word about them is that Avery Johnson Jr left. 

9- Louisville- I don’t know what kind of smoke there will be from the hookers and recruits story. It would have been difficult for me to think they would have missed the tournament because of Rick Pittino’s record, but it is one more red flag. They lost their four 30 minute plus guys. I liked what I saw from Snider down the stretch, but he is far from a certainty. Among Onuaku, Mathing, Mahmoud, Johnson, and the freshmen, do they have big men who can contribute at both ends? Trey Lewis and Damion Lee give them a much needed shooters and overall scoring. If one figures that those two transferred to Louisville to better position themselves in the eyes of NBA scouts, and a couple of their freshmen think they are destined to be one-and-done, can they mesh together to get towards the top of a tough ACC? 

10- Washington- It is an entirely new team, which is not a bad thing. They were not just 16-15, but 5-14 in the Pac 12. Andrew Andrews and Dorsey are the only returnees from the rotation. The only other upperclassmen is a junior college transfer. It looks a bit like the OSU situation without the recent history of OSU in terms of "next man up."

[Author]

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