[steviechillzParticipant]

In this post I have some stats that will semi-blow-your-mind…these are two guards, who were both drafted in the early to mid 2000’s. Both can shoot the three, create off the dribble, score in a variety of ways, etc. Below is a statistical comparison of their first five years in the league. One plays for an awful team the majority of his career, the other, propels the team(w/ a bad rep for the most part) to the playoffs three out of his five years with the team. Can you guess which player is which just by looking at the stats? Scroll to the bottom to find out! BTW, sorry for the formatting, but these is not much I can do to make it more pretty, looked great in WORD/EXCEL lol

1st Player

Year PPG APG RPG SPG 3PMG MPG PER
04-05 2.9 .5 1.3 .4 .1 10.1 8.7
05-06 10.8 1.3 3.6 .8 .9 26.6 14.8
06-07 20.2 2.2 4.3 1.2 1.6 35.2 20.1
07-08 23.7 2.1 4.5 1.0 1.8 36.3 21.0
08-09 24.6 2.7 3.6 1.2 2.3 38.2 19.2

2nd Player

Year PPG APG RPG SPG 3PMG MPG PER
06-07 16.8 4.0 4.4 1.2 1.0 35.4 18.0
07-08 19.1 5.8 4.7 1.1 1.0 37.7 19.4
08-09 22.6 5.1 4.7 1.1 1.1 37.2 24.0
09-10 21.5 4.7 4.4 .9 1.1 37.2 21.3
10-11 12.2 2.7 2.6 .8 .8 27.9 13.9

The first player is Kevin Martin and the second player is Brandon Roy!

I did this to show a few things. Even though we all love analytics, stats never tell the whole story. Not everything in the NBA in terms of players, teams, personnel, etc. is objective. The first player looks on the surface to be a guy who rose through the ranks. Starting with limited minutes he gradually found himself in the league and now looks like a perennial all star. Where in reality Kevin Martin was a chucker on a bad team that found a way to score in bunches because he shot in bunches.

The second player looks like a guy who was drafted high to a bad team, carried his team season by season, but towards the end of this five year stint his production went way down. Without knowing B-Roy’s back story, one could summarize the team either found a better replacement, maybe decided to bring the player off the bench, etc. In reality, B-Roy’s career was hampered by tons of injuries and the Trailblazers curse found a way to end his career in six seasons. Despite that curse, he found a way to carry his team in the playoffs and he was arguably one of the top 10 players in the league for a few years.

Stats don’t necessarily reflect a player’ true meaning/value to a team, his capabilities on and off the court, and how he really impacts the team overall(emotionally, ability to impact the game on a nightly basis, etc.). Just thought it was interesting to compare B-Roy, who probably would have been an instant HOF if his career wasn’t shot down by injuries to Kevin Martin, a perfect example of a loser squad tease in the NBA who might not see more than 18 minutes a game next year for the Spurs.

[high floorParticipant]

There are many players that put up empty stats on losing teams. After all, somebody has to score… right? That’s why I really like to look at efficiency statistics to help validate a players performance, plus their defensive ability/physical profile, and overall passion for winning.

Roy checks all three of those boxes. Although I think Brandon Roy was more versatile on offense.. I actually think Kevin Martin’s offensive game was really productive. He could get to the free throw line at will (and convert) and he also shot a nice 3-ball. However.. his defensive contributions were very sub-standard.. as K-Mart was an absolute turnstile man-to-man and help defender. Plus his team’s weren’t that great due to below average coaching & an overall lack of surrounding talent.

As an aside I always loved Kobe’s interview in 2010 with John Thompson, where he said that Brandon Roy was the toughest opponent to guard in the NBA. Quotes like that from all-time greats like the Black Mamba supercede statistics IMO, even for a stats junkie like myself.

[OhCanada-Participant]

He also can’t say Lebron or Wade because in the marketing world he has been in competition with those brands. Roy had not solidified his brand the same way. It would be like saying the toughest to gaurd nowadays is Damian Lilliard to divert attention away from GSW, KD, Steph, Thompson or Cavs, Lebron, Kyrie. Or maybe he was completely genuine.

[tblazer_NZParticipant]

Except MWP (Ron Artest) said the same thing, that he was the toughest to guard and he was defensive player of the year in 2004 and has no reason to say that if he didn’t believe it himself. Roy was ROTY and a 3 time All Star and had to retire when he was just about to enter his prime. His game was complete, had the nickname The Natural for a reason. So clutch too. As a Kiwi I have no  Geographic reason to like any team. He is why I changed Allegiance to the Blazers

[Ahkasi ClayParticipant]

 kobe was one of the most inefiecient volume shooters in NBA history, funny you should try to use him for this conversation

[MopgrassParticipant]

I don’t have a great working knowledge of advanced stats in basketball (just baseball), but just like in baseball, I don’t think a lot of the classic stats are that meaningful. That’s why they’re subtracting unchallenged rebounds in some stats. I think points per shot attempt (including free throws) is important, how many times you obtain or lose the ball is important, and passing is, possibly, immeasurably important. Points per shot attempt (there’s probable a better name for it): a guy who shoots 33% from 3 and shoots 100 shots will have the same amount of points as the guy who shoots 50% from 2. That’s how valuable 3 pointers are. Free throws are underrated. An 80% FT shooter is worth a 53% 3 point shooter (which don’t exist). Well… if they shot an equal amount of times. That makes James Harden and even Lou Williams very valuable (if they played any level of defense). Passing is hard to measure. Assists are nice because receiving the ball right before you shoot, but that’s such a small fraction of passing. Does the guy pass when in trouble? Does he get it to the open guy? Does he pass it often enough? Is there a measure for all that? 

[raybeasParticipant]

I take player 2 ten times out of ten. What was this meant to show?

[circumlocution75Participant]

 in List of players over 500 Minutes…… Boban played (508 Min)

Curry, Leanord, Durant, Paul, Westbrook, Lebroin James were Next…..

But Hassan Whiteside & Enes Kanter were 8th & 9th on that List……..

Great Post….. we are ALL Stats Addicts & have been All our Lives……

I’ve read several other people on the Site Go Off about the way Win Share & Vorp especially are Calculated…….

Steals are worth Double the points that Blocks are in Vorp calculation……… In Win Share the Original Baseball / Saber-Metrics uses a 3 to 1 Ratio for Calculating Win Share & there is NO Negative score for Individual Defense b/c in a TEAM sport these things are SO Subjective…….

But in Basketball there IS Negative scores for Individual Defenders & the Ratio for Calculating Win Share in NBA is a 1 to 1 Ratio! 

What we are Left with is the Best players get the Highest Scores but the Analytics FAIL to meet their Intended Purpose…… Let’s remember the PURPOSE of Analytics or Sabermetrics

The Purpose is in a TEAM game how do we Understand the Value of Individual Players in a TEAM sport???

B/c in Baseball a Super Star can NOT Dominate EVERY single game…….. So how do we Learn the Value of the other players????? Well in the NBA the Super Star DOES Dominate & can do so Every single Game

But we Still do Not understand the Value of the Non Star level players by using Math……. An expert coach or scout can Watch a game & tell you Who is Valuable & Why……. But an Egghead from MIT who has NEVER played the sport can NOT…..

Why did Pat Riley find Josh Richardson in the 2nd round of the 2015 NBA Draft when the 76ers GM Sam Hinkie had an Army of Brainiacs scouring the NCAA & even though the Sixers were DESPERARE for Shooting AND quality Guards but they MISSED him…..

How does Jerry West in Golden State find a Jewel like Draymond Green in the 2nd round of the 2012 NBA Draft but the Houston Rockets w/ Daryl Morey & Sam Hinkie & Dozen of other Egg Heads in Houstons Analytics / NBA – NASA Analytics Dept in the Rockets Draft Room take Jeremy Lamb 23 picks EARLIER at #12 in the Draft Lottery……..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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