[tuck243Participant]

First off, this isn’t something I’ve done extensive research on, but more so something I had an epiphany on.  

I looked at all the starting PG’s in the league. There are a total of  9 PG’s in the league that start and are  6’1 & under.  It’s

Mike Conley….Ty Lawson….Kyle Lowery….Brandon Jennings (most of the year)….Trey Burke (most of the year)…..Kemba Walker….Eric Bledsoe….Darren Collinson….Chris Paul 

Then I took a look at all the PG’s that have been drafted in the first round in the last 10 years that are also under 6’1.

Including the above mentioned:

Jonny Flynn….DJ Augustin…..Shabazz Napier….Nate Robinson…Raymond Felton…Aaron Brooks….Norris Cole.

Now, about 50% of these players are athletically faster and quicker than a lot of the league.  Aaron Brooks, Ty Lawson, Mike Conley, Brandon Jennings, Darren Collinson, Raymond Felton (at one point), and Nate Robinson.

Then I looked at all the guys that were efficient in college and/or play defense.  

Chris Paul

Mike Conley

Ty Lawson

Eric Bledsoe

Kyle Lowery

Darren Collinson (he’s an enigma)

Notice the best players in the last part of this are some of the best PG’s in the game?   Notice the inefficient dudes are on the brisk of getting out the NBA or just a decent back up?  

So my conclusion is….  Unless he’s very fast, super efficient in college, and/or play defense then don’t draft him in the first round.  He has to have at least 2 of those qualities to be productive in this league.  

You might take the risk and draft a Darren Collison.   But with the rest of the above names I’ve mentioned it’s a low chance you will. 

This also means drafting Terry Rozier and Isaish Taylor this year in the first round is a waste of a draft pick that early.  (they’re 6’1 on other sites)

 

What yall think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 I appreciate all that was put forth with this material. Thank you! Also, Shane Larkin could be added within the second wave of guys listed.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 I appreciate all that was put forth with this material. Thank you! Also, Shane Larkin could be added within the second wave of guys listed.

[tuck243Participant]

And I forgot about him..  Will do… 

[tuck243Participant]

And I forgot about him..  Will do… 

[SgtMcSquigglesParticipant]

 It depends on how you would define efficient. If it’s purely shooting efficiency then Larkin would be a miss for you because he shot 53.8% for two pointers and 40.6% from 3. 

[SgtMcSquigglesParticipant]

 It depends on how you would define efficient. If it’s purely shooting efficiency then Larkin would be a miss for you because he shot 53.8% for two pointers and 40.6% from 3. 

[i’m jus so offendedParticipant]

"First off, this isn’t something I’ve done extensive research on"

[i’m jus so offendedParticipant]

"First off, this isn’t something I’ve done extensive research on"

[sweaterflexParticipant]

You’re right about Isaiah Taylor and Terry Rozier being wastes of first round picks.  Though he is 6’1 I think Eric Bledsoe profiles as more of a bigger point guard due to his strength and wingspan.  When projecting point guards, the most telling stats are steal%, assist/turnover ratio, true shooting percentage, and strong performance as an underclassmen.  Jerian Grant and Delon Wright are worth mid-first round picks, due to their size on defense, but I suspect Wright will never be more than average on offense in the league due to his lack of outside shooting.  They are also older than their peers at 23.  If Melo Trimble improves his defense a bit and becomes a better distributor I expect him to be better than both of them, something like a poor man’s Damian Lillard.

[sweaterflexParticipant]

You’re right about Isaiah Taylor and Terry Rozier being wastes of first round picks.  Though he is 6’1 I think Eric Bledsoe profiles as more of a bigger point guard due to his strength and wingspan.  When projecting point guards, the most telling stats are steal%, assist/turnover ratio, true shooting percentage, and strong performance as an underclassmen.  Jerian Grant and Delon Wright are worth mid-first round picks, due to their size on defense, but I suspect Wright will never be more than average on offense in the league due to his lack of outside shooting.  They are also older than their peers at 23.  If Melo Trimble improves his defense a bit and becomes a better distributor I expect him to be better than both of them, something like a poor man’s Damian Lillard.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 tuck,

that’s a great observation!

Basically, less margin for error with small guards.  

I would even say ANY non-big, not athletic point guard.  Rose and Westbrook are 6’3ish which isn’t HUGE but they are great athletes.  Take away their athleticism and they are less effective — we have seen a lot of that with D Rose the past couple of years.

Even a guy like Kyrie Irving is bigger at 6’3 but not known as a freak athlete BUT he is a guy I thought he would be: somewhere between Mike Conley and Chris Paul (two smaller guys on your list).  

Tony Parker is a guy who has been around a bit longer — but again he is smaller and although he is speedy, he is generally known as an efficiency freak.

So: either get a BIGGER guard, like 6’3 or bigger who is also ATHLETIC like a Westbrook, Rose, or Wall.  OR, you have to go out and get an efficiency freak in the Chris Paul mold.  

Then you take a guy with some decent point guard size (6’3) coupled with DECENT speed AND AWESOME shooting/scoring efficiency as well as solid passing and you get Steph Curry — maybe the closest guy to Pete Maravich and the frontrunner for league MVP.

Steph Curry is your video game efficient point guard with a bit more size (6’3) but not to be confused with Magic Johnson (6’8ish).

A takeaway here would be that a shorter, inefficient guy like Rajon Rondo (even though he has a freakish wingspan) is currently struggling (relatively) in today’s NBA.  Then you don’t go out and draft a guy like him that high anymore.  

On the other side, later on in the first round, or somewhere in the second, you might want to look at a bigger 6’5/6’6 combo guard who can run some point.  Look at a guy like Tony Wroten or Nick Calathes.  Guys that can handle, pass, and score a bit then get you steals and defend a couple of spots on the other side of the ball.

For the little guys, don’t draft them high.  Better to pick up Fred Van Vleet in the second round.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 tuck,

that’s a great observation!

Basically, less margin for error with small guards.  

I would even say ANY non-big, not athletic point guard.  Rose and Westbrook are 6’3ish which isn’t HUGE but they are great athletes.  Take away their athleticism and they are less effective — we have seen a lot of that with D Rose the past couple of years.

Even a guy like Kyrie Irving is bigger at 6’3 but not known as a freak athlete BUT he is a guy I thought he would be: somewhere between Mike Conley and Chris Paul (two smaller guys on your list).  

Tony Parker is a guy who has been around a bit longer — but again he is smaller and although he is speedy, he is generally known as an efficiency freak.

So: either get a BIGGER guard, like 6’3 or bigger who is also ATHLETIC like a Westbrook, Rose, or Wall.  OR, you have to go out and get an efficiency freak in the Chris Paul mold.  

Then you take a guy with some decent point guard size (6’3) coupled with DECENT speed AND AWESOME shooting/scoring efficiency as well as solid passing and you get Steph Curry — maybe the closest guy to Pete Maravich and the frontrunner for league MVP.

Steph Curry is your video game efficient point guard with a bit more size (6’3) but not to be confused with Magic Johnson (6’8ish).

A takeaway here would be that a shorter, inefficient guy like Rajon Rondo (even though he has a freakish wingspan) is currently struggling (relatively) in today’s NBA.  Then you don’t go out and draft a guy like him that high anymore.  

On the other side, later on in the first round, or somewhere in the second, you might want to look at a bigger 6’5/6’6 combo guard who can run some point.  Look at a guy like Tony Wroten or Nick Calathes.  Guys that can handle, pass, and score a bit then get you steals and defend a couple of spots on the other side of the ball.

For the little guys, don’t draft them high.  Better to pick up Fred Van Vleet in the second round.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Taylor fits two of your qualifications. He has top end speed and plays defense.

He’s one of the quickest guys at the NCAA level, and a very active defender who’s very good at staying ahead of his man.

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Taylor fits two of your qualifications. He has top end speed and plays defense.

He’s one of the quickest guys at the NCAA level, and a very active defender who’s very good at staying ahead of his man.

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Point guards in the NBA draft might be like drafting quarterbacks in the NFL.

Take the REALLY special ones high.  Top 5 or 10.  You can even use the number one pick on one (if he is a great athlete too) like a D Rose or John Wall.  Even a Kyrie Irving who’s (projected) upside was a 6’3 Chris Paul or a baseline 6’3 Mike Conley.

If not, wait until the second round.

Use 1st round picks on size, length, athleticism, and well balanced two-way guys.

Use the second round to go after 7 foot(ish) shot blockers, backup point guards, 3 point shooting specialists, and Euro Stash guys.  These are like the special teams guys in the NFL — don’t waste a lotto pick on one, even though you need these guys to win.  Projected "3 and D" guys with merely average size, length, and athleticism should fall into the "2nd round pick" category too.

If you already have an all-star point guard and a top shelf backup point guard?  Don’t even waste a second round pick on a third stringer.  Wait and go after undrafted rookie free agents or young D League guys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Point guards in the NBA draft might be like drafting quarterbacks in the NFL.

Take the REALLY special ones high.  Top 5 or 10.  You can even use the number one pick on one (if he is a great athlete too) like a D Rose or John Wall.  Even a Kyrie Irving who’s (projected) upside was a 6’3 Chris Paul or a baseline 6’3 Mike Conley.

If not, wait until the second round.

Use 1st round picks on size, length, athleticism, and well balanced two-way guys.

Use the second round to go after 7 foot(ish) shot blockers, backup point guards, 3 point shooting specialists, and Euro Stash guys.  These are like the special teams guys in the NFL — don’t waste a lotto pick on one, even though you need these guys to win.  Projected "3 and D" guys with merely average size, length, and athleticism should fall into the "2nd round pick" category too.

If you already have an all-star point guard and a top shelf backup point guard?  Don’t even waste a second round pick on a third stringer.  Wait and go after undrafted rookie free agents or young D League guys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Author]

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