[JoeWolf1]

 There’s been a lot of talk around the forum about hyped players out of high school, lingering expectations, and unnecessary hate, but lets just really take a look at the most highly ranked players out of high school, so we can take a realisitic look at what kind of odds these guys have of being great.

I started out with the HS class of 2007 and moved forward until the HS class of 2012 to just present some cold hard facts about the top 10 ranked high school players on a year to year basis. I used ESPN’s rankings because they have an easily accessable database, and although they differ from Rivals and other scouting services, they’re rarely insanely far off.

2007 

1. Kevin Love – Multiple All-Star 

2. Eric Gordon – former 20 ppg scorer cut down by injuries. Still a solid starter

3. O.J. Mayo – struggled to find a true role in the NBA, but still a career 25+ mpg player

4. Kyle Singler – Sharp shooting role player

5. Derrick Rose – Youngest MVP in history, All-Star when healthy

6. Nolan Smith – out of the league after rookie contract

7. Austin Freeman – 0 NBA games

8. Michael Beasley – out of the league after constant underachivement

9. Patrick Patterson – Reserve and Fill in starter

10. Nick Calathes – Solid back up point guard

20% of the top 10 players of the 07′ class have an NBA All-Star game under their belts. 

30% are not the the NBA as the 2014-15 NBA season starts up

50% are role players who will most likely have a long NBA career

Key players ranked outside the top 10…

Blake Griffin – 18, James Harden – 21, DeAndre Jordan – 25, Chandler Parsons – 44, Jeff Teague – 67

2008

1. Brandon Jennings – career starter, high scoring/low efficiency PG

2. Samardo Samuels – out of the league after a short stint as a backup

3. Tyreke Evans – former ROY, current starter

4. Jrue Holiday – 1 X All-Star and starter since his 2nd year

5. B.J. Mullens – not in the league after a few decent seasons for bad teams

6. JaMychal Green – 0 NBA games, D-League standout

7. Tyler Zeller – reserve center

8. DeMar DeRozan – NBA All-Star

9. Scotty Hopson – 0 NBA games

10. Willie Warren – 1 NBA season

20% of the top 10 players from 08′ have an NBA All-Star game under their belt

50% are not in the NBA as the 2014-15 NBA season starts up

20% are NBA starters

10% are current NBA role players

Key Players ranked outside the top 10…

Kemba Walker – 14, Greg Monroe – 20, Reggie Jackson – 94

2009

1. Avery Bradley – NBA starter

2. Derrick Favors – NBA starter

3. Xavier Henry – role player who’s had ups and downs

4. DeMarcus Cousins – 20 ppg player but yet to make an All-Star game

5. John Wall – NBA All-Star

6. John Henson – reserve big man/ fill in starter

7. Renardo Sidney – 0 NBA games

8. Jordan Hamilton – end of bench SF

9. Kenny Boynton – 0 NBA games

10. Mason Plumlee – reserve with starter potential

10% of the top 10 of the 09′ class have an NBA All-Star game under their belts

30% have been starters the majority of their careers

20% have been reserves but have performed well when asked to start

20% are end of the bench type players

20% are not in the NBA as the 2014-15 seasons starts up

Key players outside the top 10…

Lance Stephenson – 12, Kawhi Leonard – 54, 

2010  

1. Harrison Barnes – 6th man for a playoff team

2. Jared Sullinger – NBA starter

3. Kyrie Irving – NBA All-Star

4. Brandon Knight – NBA starter

5. Josh Selby – Not in the NBA

6. Tobias Harris – NBA starter

7. Perry Jones III – reserve forward

8. Will Barton – reserve guard

9. Terrance Jones – NBA starter

10. Tristian Thompson – NBA starter

10% of the top 10 of the 2010 class have an NBA All-Star game under their belt

50% are current starting players

20% are currently NBA reserves

10% is not in the NBA as the 2014-15 season starts up

Key players outside of the top 10…

Dion Waiters – 15, Enes Kanter – 25, Terrance Ross – 30

2011

1. Anthony Davis – NBA All-Star

2. Andre Drummond – NBA Starter

3. Austin Rivers – reserve guard

4. MKG – reserve and occasional starting forward

5. Bradley Beal – NBA starter

6. James MacAdoo – fringe player hoping to make Golden State’s roster

7. Quincy Miller – end of bench reserve

8. Marquis Teague – end of bench reserve

9. Adonis Thomas – not in the NBA

10. LeBryan Nash – projected 2nd round pick, senior at OSU

10% of the top 10 of the class of have an NBA All-Star game ( Drummond and Beal may be soon )

20% are NBA starters

40% are NBA reserves

10% are not in the NBA as the 2014-15 season starts up

10% could possibly be in the NBA but may not be at the start of the season

10% is still in college

Key players outside the top 10…

MCW – 21

2012

1. Nerlens Noel – NBA starter ( projected )

2. Shabazz Muhammad – reserve guard

3. Isaiah Austin – had to retire due to medical condition

4. Kaleb Tarczewski – Junior at Arizona

5. Kyle Anderson – 30th pick in 14′ draft, likely reserve as a rookie

6. Steven Adams – NBA starter (projected )

7. Anthony Bennett – reserve forward

8. Cameron Ridley – Junior at Texas 

9. Grant Jarrett – 0 NBA games, D-League starter

10. Marcus Smart – 6th pick in 14′ draft, likely reserve or fill in starter as a rookie

20% are projectd starters entering the 14-15 NBA season

20% are reserves entering their 2nd seasons

20% are not in the NBA as the 14-15 season starts up

20% are projected role players entering their rookie seasons

20% are still in college

This is just the data. It’s not easy to be an NBA All-Star or even an NBA starter, every year there are guys out of the best and brightest that fail to even make the jump to making an NBA roster. Others flame out early, while some achieve long term success.

Obviously less can be told by some of the more recent classes, where some guys are sill in college, and others haven’t even begun to hit their strides as professionals, but I just wanted to present this to help paint a picture that being great in high school isn’t a magic pass to be great in the pros….a lot of the time it’s not even a pass to get there in the first place.

 

 

 

 

 

[tuck243Participant]

If this was 2007, the top 10 would have 5 players starting for their teams.  Also, you have to give a certain amount of time for players to develop into bench players or starters.  A better list would probably stop with the 2009 class and go back from that.  I’m not saying it would be any different, but would be more realible.  

[tuck243Participant]

If this was 2007, the top 10 would have 5 players starting for their teams.  Also, you have to give a certain amount of time for players to develop into bench players or starters.  A better list would probably stop with the 2009 class and go back from that.  I’m not saying it would be any different, but would be more realible.  

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, the later classes aren’t the full picture. To list Drummond and Beal as just starters seems a bit off because I’m almost certain both will be All-Stars in 2 or 3 years.

I wanted to do 05-10, but their website only went back to 07, and I wanted a consise list and not to have to dig around multiple google searches. 

I know what you’re saying though. The picture isn’t super clear, especially with 11′ and 12′

I hear "he wasn’t a great high school player for nothing” so much I just wanted to put together a list that puts things into persepctive about how freaking hard it is to be an elite NBA player, or even just make it to the big time.

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, the later classes aren’t the full picture. To list Drummond and Beal as just starters seems a bit off because I’m almost certain both will be All-Stars in 2 or 3 years.

I wanted to do 05-10, but their website only went back to 07, and I wanted a consise list and not to have to dig around multiple google searches. 

I know what you’re saying though. The picture isn’t super clear, especially with 11′ and 12′

I hear "he wasn’t a great high school player for nothing” so much I just wanted to put together a list that puts things into persepctive about how freaking hard it is to be an elite NBA player, or even just make it to the big time.

[JordanC20Participant]

 good write up…only thing is Scotty Hopson has appeared in 2 games (7 minutes overall) for the Cavs.

[JordanC20Participant]

 good write up…only thing is Scotty Hopson has appeared in 2 games (7 minutes overall) for the Cavs.

[XYRYXParticipant]

I really like the work you out into this!

What exactly do the rankings outside of the top 10 at the bottom of each group mean? This really can’t be an overall rating system with Kemba at 14 and Monroe at 20 while Blake at 18 – just asking?

[XYRYXParticipant]

I really like the work you out into this!

What exactly do the rankings outside of the top 10 at the bottom of each group mean? This really can’t be an overall rating system with Kemba at 14 and Monroe at 20 while Blake at 18 – just asking?

[JoeWolf1]

 Per class, Blake was ranked 18th in his class by ESPN, Kemba ranked 14 in his different high school class by ESPN etc…

I only went through 100, I know Victor Oladipo was ranked like 126 or something way down there in his high school class. There’s probably a lot of other good players that were ranked past 100. Caris LaVert was a 3 star in the 2012 class and could go in the lottery this season.

[JoeWolf1]

 Per class, Blake was ranked 18th in his class by ESPN, Kemba ranked 14 in his different high school class by ESPN etc…

I only went through 100, I know Victor Oladipo was ranked like 126 or something way down there in his high school class. There’s probably a lot of other good players that were ranked past 100. Caris LaVert was a 3 star in the 2012 class and could go in the lottery this season.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 One guy that I feel did not get his just due is Bill Walker. Known as Skywalker to the world, Bill put in the work needed to develop skills outside of being known as a game dunker. In New York, he held his own when given the opportunity to showcase himself. I literally thought that he would still be on a roster after showing the aBILLity to shoot the ball well from the perimeter. I’m still upset about the way he phased out.

[JoeWolf1]

 Bill had a series of knee issues which over time limited his ability to play at a high level. After blowing out his ACL in high school and again in college, you’re right, he really honed his outside shot and had success as a 3 point shooter for a few years in the league, but he just never had the durability to stay in the league.

From everything I heard, Bill was a well liked guy and had a nice run, but he didn’t get blacklisted, his series of knee injuries just took their toll. His last season in the NBA he had elbow surgery, and the Knicks cut him.

Walker spent last year in the D-League where he was a 14.67 ppg scorer. I’m glad he can still make a living playing ball, but when you look at the guys who are out of the league, and it was because of injuries it’s always kind of a bummer. Bill had some major potential, and the head to put it together, his body just didn’t hold up.

[JoeWolf1]

 Bill had a series of knee issues which over time limited his ability to play at a high level. After blowing out his ACL in high school and again in college, you’re right, he really honed his outside shot and had success as a 3 point shooter for a few years in the league, but he just never had the durability to stay in the league.

From everything I heard, Bill was a well liked guy and had a nice run, but he didn’t get blacklisted, his series of knee injuries just took their toll. His last season in the NBA he had elbow surgery, and the Knicks cut him.

Walker spent last year in the D-League where he was a 14.67 ppg scorer. I’m glad he can still make a living playing ball, but when you look at the guys who are out of the league, and it was because of injuries it’s always kind of a bummer. Bill had some major potential, and the head to put it together, his body just didn’t hold up.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 One guy that I feel did not get his just due is Bill Walker. Known as Skywalker to the world, Bill put in the work needed to develop skills outside of being known as a game dunker. In New York, he held his own when given the opportunity to showcase himself. I literally thought that he would still be on a roster after showing the aBILLity to shoot the ball well from the perimeter. I’m still upset about the way he phased out.

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