[HaleParticipant]

How good is Rajon Rondo? It’s a timely question. With New Orleans Hornets point guard Chris Paul on the trading block, the Boston Celtics have reportedly floated their own All-Star point guard in talks with the league-owned franchise. Putting aside the piercing irony of a small-market team potentially trading a perennial MVP candidate to a big-market team right after the lockout, the whispers of a Rondo-for-Paul swap already have the basketball world buzzing even before the ink dries on the CBA.

Looking at this trade proposal, you can’t help revisiting that initial question:

Really, just how good is Rajon Rondo?

Yes, it’s a timely question, but it’s also a fascinating one that should yield some far-ranging opinions. Rondo represents one of the NBA’s greatest riddles because he’s an integral part of an incredibly successful team, but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly how responsible he is for his team’s success. Looking at Rondo’s particular situation in Boston, we can learn a few things about how to distribute individual credit for team success.

Surely, Rondo is an above-average point guard. We can start there. You don’t just average 11.2 assists per game by being a chump. And since assists have become the perceived currency of point guard value, Rondo appears to have earned his spot as one of the game’s great floor generals.

Assists are tricky, though. As the saying goes, it takes two to tango. When it comes to Rondo, he starts the assist with a pass, and usually this is what happens: A Hall of Famer finishes it with a bucket. As long as the league refuses to track potential assists — as in, passes that generate a good look, not necessarily a good result — we will always have an imperfect measure of passing ability. After all, the passer relinquishes his control once the ball leaves his hands. The rest is up to the receiver.

Because of the chicken-or-the-egg nature of assists, we have to be careful about guys like Rondo. Since his sophomore season in the league, he has been surrounded by Hall of Famers who are historically talented shot-makers. A trio of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett is what point guard dreams are made of. But this has been Rondo’s reality for most of his career in the NBA.

So let’s dig deeper into those gaudy assist totals and see whether we can separate what is Rondo and what isn’t. One way to zoom in on his true talent is to remove a Hall of Famer from the equation. What happens to Rondo’s assist rates when one of Boston’s Big Three leaves the floor?

Consider this: When Ray Allen was on the court, Rondo tallied 11.4 assists per 36 minutes. When Ray Allen left the court? 8.0 assists per 36 minutes — the equivalent of Devin Harris’ rate last season. That’s an enormous effect. Put another way, 30 percent of Rondo’s assists vanished when Allen stepped off the court.

And that wasn’t an isolated bruise, either; he Boston offense took a considerable hit as well. The Celtics’ offensive efficiency dropped from a blistering 108.6 points per 100 possessions to a meager 102.7 points when Rondo saw Allen leave the court. And Pierce? We saw a similar drop-off in Rondo’s assists when the small forward hit the bench and an even more dramatic slide in the overall team context. When Pierce hit the pine, Rondo’s assist rate fell from 11.2 to 9.2 and the offense suffered greatly, dropping from 110.2 points per 100 possessions to a subterranean 95.0 points per 100 possessions. Yes, that’s a 15.2-point drop-off.

For teams interested in Rondo, these on-court relationships should weigh heavily in the scouting report. In Allen, Rondo has one of the best spot-up shooters of all time and, perhaps more importantly, a magician off the ball. Pierce has carved out one of the most crafty offensive arsenals in the game. Without them by his side, the Boston offense was completely neutered.

That shouldn’t happen with a top-flight point guard. What makes Rondo such a unique player is that he can’t create offense for himself, which severely compromises his value on the court. Elite point guards like Paul, Derrick Rose, Steve Nash and Deron Williams all share the ability to take over games with their own scoring without depending on teammates. When Boston’s Big Three weren’t on the floor, you’d expect a point guard with Rondo’s prestige to raise his game. In those situations, Rondo only managed to score a paltry 11.8 points per 36 minutes.

His assists dropped to 7.1 assists per 36 minutes. At this point, you might be growling, "Of course, Rondo and his team suffers when Hall of Famers leave the court!" This much is obvious, but what isn’t obvious is how much of Boston’s success we should attribute directly to Rondo.

Think about this for a second: Could Rondo take a team starting Marco Belinelli, Trevor Ariza, Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor to six games against the Lakers in the playoffs? Could he lead the Phoenix Suns to almost a winning record like Steve Nash did?

[+] Enlarge Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images Rondo’s lack of scoring ability keeps him a notch below the level of young star guards like Russell Westbrook. These are essential questions when it comes to players like Rondo, who have so much of their offensive value lumped into one category. While it’s true that Rondo isn’t just an assist compiler — he’s a pesky defender and an above-average rebounder — potential buyers should pay attention to what happens when he’s not surrounded by Hall of Famers. The more you look at the numbers, Rondo appears to be the sweetener, not the coffee.

For stacked lineups like the one in Boston, Rondo can be the difference-maker. But for small-market teams looking to rebuild, it’s hard to mention Rondo in the same breath as other talented youngsters like Russell Westbrook and Rose. Without an outside scoring game, a player like Rondo has a ceiling that can only go so far. Sharing the court with other superstars further clouds the picture, but as we’ve seen with Rondo, he owes a significant chunk of his value to his teammates.

Which players show similar warning signs? Tony Parker comes to mind. The similarities are eerie. Like Rondo, the only team Parker has ever known is one that annually competes for championships. Like Rondo, he fell late in the draft primarily over concerns about his shot. Like Rondo, he played with one of the best power forwards of all time, not to mention an All-Star wing in Manu Ginobili. If a team wants to rebuild with point guards like Rondo and Parker, they have to separate what’s nature and what’s nurture.

Rondo represents a small group of fine players who shine brightest next to superstars. No one would call Rondo a role player because of the pejorative connotation, but non-scorers like Tyson Chandler — a castoff in Charlotte who arguably may have been the second-best player on a title team — and Rondo need scorers next to them in order to leverage their talents. The same goes for low-usage high-energy guys like Joakim Noah and Gerald Wallace.

Celtics general manager Danny Ainge has denied that he’s looking to trade Rondo, and that may just be a public relations ploy. However, because of Rondo’s unique talents, there’s some evidence that Rondo means more to the Celtics than any other team. That may be a good thing for his own valuations. But for potential rebuilding suitors outside of Boston, the warning is clear: Buyer beware.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7306324/rajon-rondo-player-build-team-nba

 

[FritzParticipant]

I too have always thought Rondo is one of the most over rated players. I think its laughable that people thought he was better than Rose. Rondo is a great passer and still a very good player but his assist numbers are inflated. People never gave credit to how much of an impact having someone like Ray Allen, who is one of the best players in the league at moving without the ball and getting himself good looks.

And when comparing defense, I still dont get it. Point guards dont have to be good defenders to guard Rondo, they litterally just stand five feet in front of him and dare him to shoot. And for people saying how great Rondo’s defense is, when does he ever slow down Rose? Great offense beats great defense every time.

Rondo is a very good player but his run as an all-star should come to an end this year. John Wall is just going to be a better player next year and I hope voting shows that.

[rileymcshea3Participant]

 Yeah if Nash can get 11.4 assist on the Suns with that team he could easily average 15 assist on the Celtics

[OllstarParticipant]

good points there. the one thing they fail to mention is that rondo can create his own offense off the dribble. His shot is not great but hes young and that will come. Hes crafty in the lane. Pierce and KG arent as good assist targets as allen. They both iso and by the time they score no assist is credited. Where as Nash has guys no where near as good but similar to Allen. Catch and shoot scorers.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

I dont think he’s overrated at all…..Watching Rondo at Kentucky,i must admit that i never thought he’d turn into the AllStar caliber guard he has become..I figured he’ll be a nice backup for a team…But he’s worked hard and ended up in the perfect situation in Boston….

He’s 1 of those Unorthodox players whose style of play is hard to evaluate,how they’ll do at the next level…John Henson is 1 of those type of guys..Thats why some say he’s a 2nd rounder and others say he’s a lottery pick….But if they work hard and get to the right team..They sometimes succeeds….

[steviechillzParticipant]

 He is top 5 pg good…right now.  The guy is the best defensive PG in the League, one of the top 3 passers, and is one of the best playoff PG performers based on stats and his effort during Playoff games( Dislcoated Shoulder game and the game where he hustled past Jason Williams for a loose ball for the layup)….his biggest knock is his shot and i hope he has improved on it to stop the criticism on his game

[FritzParticipant]

Ill still take Rose, Paul, Westbrook, and Williams over Rondo, and I do think there is a decent drop off after those four, but I would put Rondo at 5, and then Nash, but I think Wall will take over that 5 spot if not this year then the next.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

I’ve been saying this about Rondo for years now…

He’s still a very good player, just not elite like a lot of his fans seem to think. There was actually argument that he was better than Derrick Rose… Smh.

[EntropyParticipant]

He was better than derrick rose. Rose used to play very bad defense (which is 50% of the game). But Rose has improved over the past year and it seems like Rondo has not imporved at all, and i’m not sure why. Surely he worked on his jumper, but still no improvement. Not sure what the problem is.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

He was NEVER better than Derrick Rose as a player. He may have done certain things better, but he was never the better player in my opinion.

[tareef32Participant]

 I can’t believe people question his passing ability. If Rondo played in phoenix in a fast paced tempo he would probably average more assists. And if you put Rose or Westbrook in the celtics they wouldn’t be able to get as many assists as Rondo does. I’m not saying he is better than Rose but he is better than Westbrook and definitely an elite point guard

[aamir543Participant]

Very good player, but definatly not elite. Until he can consistently hit the outside shot, you can’t put him up there with D Rose, or even Steve Nash. But if he consistently hit the midrange shot, and create it for himself, that would make him even more valuable, cause after Chris Paul I believe that he’s the best defensive Point guard in the league.

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