[surveParticipant]

Yao Ming’s career was derailed by injuries, but his production was impressive when he played.

Two weeks shy of a decade ago, the Houston Rockets traded away an aging Hakeem Olajuwon. The one-time No. 1 overall draft pick retired a year later and went on to become a Hall of Famer.

In 2002, the Rockets drafted another towering foreign-born center, hoping for a similar success story. While Yao Ming, who retired in Shanghai earlier today, proved to be a tremendously talented NBA player, the story of his playing career will ultimately be one of unfulfilled potential. The quality of his play, when he was healthy, places him among the elite centers in modern NBA history, but frequent injuries have prevented him from accumulating Hall of Fame value.

The simplest way to compare a player to those who came before him is to find an all-in-one stat that considers both offensive and defensive contributions, total up his career value, and see where he ranks all time. One convenient metric for that exercise is win shares, which are calculated on basketball-reference.com. Win shares are an estimate of the number of wins that a player created for his team, compared to what a replacement-level player (e.g. a rookie free agent or an end-of-the-bench scrub) would have done in his place.

Using win shares, Yao looks like a solid player, but by no means one of the all-time greats. He ranks 35th all time among centers, sandwiched between Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Brad Daugherty.

However, Yao ranks so low in large part because his body gave out on him and cut short his playing career. In his time on the court, he was very efficient, and during his peak years he played at an elite level. So perhaps the better question to ask is: What if Yao had managed to stay healthy? Where would he likely have ended up ranking among the all-time greats then?

Admittedly, it may not be plausible to imagine an alternate universe in which Yao stays healthy while retaining his proven skill level. After all, Yao’s tremendous stature most likely contributed to both his quality of play and his health issues; a smaller Yao Ming would have lasted longer but been less dominant. Still, we can humor ourselves and assume that Yao did get at least somewhat unlucky on the injury front, and explore what could have been.

To do so, I’ve employed a technique often used in baseball Hall of Fame discussions, which is to look at a player’s best seasons and create a comparison chart. I took Yao’s seasons, ranked them from best to worst according to win shares per 48 minutes played (WS/48), and plotted them on a chart. For comparison purposes, I then took the top 20 NBA centers in all-time win shares, split them into three groups, and did the same thing.

Each line in the chart represents an average career for the group or player (Yao) in question. The higher the line, the better the player(s) performed during that season. The longer the line, the longer the career(s) lasted. Career peaks are shown on the left side, while the worst years of a career are at the right.

Viewing this chart, a couple of observations jump out. First, the top four centers (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, and David Robinson) are head and shoulders above everyone else. This isn’t a huge shock, but it’s still striking to see the size of the gap between those four players and the rest of the NBA’s other top centers, especially considering that there doesn’t seem to be much difference at all between the next two groups of players.

Second, there is no denying it — at his peak, Yao Ming played at a Hall of Fame level, and if he had stayed healthy, he could have gone down as one of the top 10 centers in history.

Even assuming his best seasons were behind him, Yao had already achieved the peak statistical milestones indicative of the top big men in the game. In fact, Yao’s peak years are nearly indistinguishable from the top years of several all-time greats.

Interestingly, among the 20 players I investigated, the most similar comparison to Yao’s best years belongs to none other than the man whose giant sneakers Yao had to fill, Olajuwon.

Yao vs. Hakeem

Win shares per 48 minutes

Year	Yao Ming	Hakeem Olajuwon
Best	0.220	0.234
2nd-best	0.211	0.210
3rd-best	0.210	0.201
4th-best	0.202	0.197
5th-best	0.196	0.189
6th-best	0.196	0.186
7th-best	0.176	0.182

According to win shares per 48 minutes, Yao actually played more productively than Olajuwon in their respective second- through fifth-best years. It’s a bit of an unfair comparison, though, since several of Yao’s best years were shortened by injury.

Brought in to the post-Hakeem Rockets under huge expectations, Yao more than succeeded at running a mile in another big man’s shoes. Unfortunately, achieving a Hall of Fame career is a marathon, not a sprint, and Yao’s body couldn’t keep up the pace. His health prevented him from stringing together a sustained, dominant run and from anchoring a yearly NBA title contender, although his supporting cast (and occasional lack thereof) also played a role in the latter.

Still, during his too-short career, Yao played at a level that few players ever reach, and in that sense he was great. As Yao’s former coach Jeff Van Gundy has stated, "You could make the case he didn’t do it for long enough to be considered an all-time great. But this guy was dominant when he played."

The stats agree.

 

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

You do not have to post link’s per se, but I think it is always good to acknowledge who wrote the article and where it was from. Just a common courtesy, and a good habit to get into.

With that being said, I thought it was an interesting article. I think it does show that Yao was a truly dominant player, and that he more than likely would have gone down as one of the best Centers to play the game had his career lasted. I know people on here often use Bill Walton as an example of not having a great career, but his was destroyed by injuries to his feet and his back, in a very similar fashion to Yao’s. Both were incredibly dominant at their peak, and I believe both may be considered by different fans to be close to the Top 10 at their position, and definitely would have been had they stayed healthy.

Had Yao remained healthy, I think the divide between he and Dwight would not have been much at all. It might have been a similar situation to the debate at PG between Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Chris is considered to be the more consistently dominant of the two, yet in head to head match-ups, Deron usually has the upper hand. I think people were starting to feel the same way with Dwight and Yao. Had Yao been consistently healthy though, he could indeed have been considered the more dominant player, he was certainly much more skilled offensively. As great as the divide is between Dwight and any other Center in the league right now, Yao seemed to completely have his number. Here is a link you should all check out:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=mingya01&p2=howardw01

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

You do not have to post link’s per se, but I think it is always good to acknowledge who wrote the article and where it was from. Just a common courtesy, and a good habit to get into.

With that being said, I thought it was an interesting article. I think it does show that Yao was a truly dominant player, and that he more than likely would have gone down as one of the best Centers to play the game had his career lasted. I know people on here often use Bill Walton as an example of not having a great career, but his was destroyed by injuries to his feet and his back, in a very similar fashion to Yao’s. Both were incredibly dominant at their peak, and I believe both may be considered by different fans to be close to the Top 10 at their position, and definitely would have been had they stayed healthy.

Had Yao remained healthy, I think the divide between he and Dwight would not have been much at all. It might have been a similar situation to the debate at PG between Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Chris is considered to be the more consistently dominant of the two, yet in head to head match-ups, Deron usually has the upper hand. I think people were starting to feel the same way with Dwight and Yao. Had Yao been consistently healthy though, he could indeed have been considered the more dominant player, he was certainly much more skilled offensively. As great as the divide is between Dwight and any other Center in the league right now, Yao seemed to completely have his number. Here is a link you should all check out:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=mingya01&p2=howardw01

[surveParticipant]

You do not have to post link’s per se, but I think it is always good to acknowledge who wrote the article and where it was from. Just a common courtesy, and a good habit to get into.

Gotcha…will remember that next time.

[surveParticipant]

You do not have to post link’s per se, but I think it is always good to acknowledge who wrote the article and where it was from. Just a common courtesy, and a good habit to get into.

Gotcha…will remember that next time.

[surveParticipant]

In my time of watching basketball, one the most disappointing things to me ever in the NBA was not being able to see prime Yao/McGrady on the court at the same time for 2 or 3 FULL seasons.  I resent Barkley’s comments that T-Mac single handedly brought down the franchise…anyone remember that?  Had these 2 played together healthly there is no telling what the Rockets could have achieved.  One can only wonder.

[surveParticipant]

In my time of watching basketball, one the most disappointing things to me ever in the NBA was not being able to see prime Yao/McGrady on the court at the same time for 2 or 3 FULL seasons.  I resent Barkley’s comments that T-Mac single handedly brought down the franchise…anyone remember that?  Had these 2 played together healthly there is no telling what the Rockets could have achieved.  One can only wonder.

[doubledribblerParticipant]

Yao is a hard case to look at. He had a few really nice years. His worst year was his rookie year (I don’t consider the last year) and that year he was averaging 13 and 8 with 1.5 blocks while shooting 49% from the field and 81% from the free throw line.   Even though he wasn’t a great defender he still altered shots, partially just by being so tall. For a guy that was considered too passive he did pretty well. The problem with Yao is that you have such a short amount of time to look at and his best statistical years he missed tons of games. I don’t really think he was ever a dominate player, though I think he was starting to get there, though he would have nights when he could put the team on his back.

I agree with Surve as far as that it was sad the two never got to play together and be healthy at the same time. I think the team was built well. Look at the team now and the last few years and it’s been made up of a bunch of role players that have finished with some fairly decent records. Most of these guys would have looked that much better playing behind Yao and McGrady. You can even consider the trade of Battier for Gay. They would have never made that trade if they knew that they couldn’t keep Yao and McGrady healthy, but they did it in order to win now. I still think the current Rockets team is maybe a superstar from causing some real damage, but not sure how realistic that is now.

[doubledribblerParticipant]

Yao is a hard case to look at. He had a few really nice years. His worst year was his rookie year (I don’t consider the last year) and that year he was averaging 13 and 8 with 1.5 blocks while shooting 49% from the field and 81% from the free throw line.   Even though he wasn’t a great defender he still altered shots, partially just by being so tall. For a guy that was considered too passive he did pretty well. The problem with Yao is that you have such a short amount of time to look at and his best statistical years he missed tons of games. I don’t really think he was ever a dominate player, though I think he was starting to get there, though he would have nights when he could put the team on his back.

I agree with Surve as far as that it was sad the two never got to play together and be healthy at the same time. I think the team was built well. Look at the team now and the last few years and it’s been made up of a bunch of role players that have finished with some fairly decent records. Most of these guys would have looked that much better playing behind Yao and McGrady. You can even consider the trade of Battier for Gay. They would have never made that trade if they knew that they couldn’t keep Yao and McGrady healthy, but they did it in order to win now. I still think the current Rockets team is maybe a superstar from causing some real damage, but not sure how realistic that is now.

[HitsterParticipant]

Yao was one of those players who reached a high level but you just wondered how much better he could have been. He and T-Mac only played in two play off series together both of which they lost in 7 games and other years one or the other was injured. Yao’s best seasons were curtained and then after his most consistent season for 3 years he broke down for what was effectively the last time in 2009.

Yao was probably the best C in the NBA for a very short time after Shaq started to be less effective and before Dwight Howard became the beast he is today and his sheer size did alter shots and create match up issues.

[HitsterParticipant]

Yao was one of those players who reached a high level but you just wondered how much better he could have been. He and T-Mac only played in two play off series together both of which they lost in 7 games and other years one or the other was injured. Yao’s best seasons were curtained and then after his most consistent season for 3 years he broke down for what was effectively the last time in 2009.

Yao was probably the best C in the NBA for a very short time after Shaq started to be less effective and before Dwight Howard became the beast he is today and his sheer size did alter shots and create match up issues.

[Author]

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