[Adi Joseph]

Everyone already seems quick to mark these two as busts. Has anyone actually given thought to their production this year, though?

Hill has looked particularly impressive in VERY limited action lately for the Knicks. In 15 games with an average of 9.5 minutes per game, he’s averaging 4.5 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Extrapolate those numbers over 36 minutes, and he’s averaging 16.9 and 9.8 per 36 minutes, with 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals. He doesn’t have enough minutes to qualify for league leader, but if he did, Hill would have the highest PER of any rookie, at 20.

Thabeet, similarly, has been exactly who we thought he was. He’s played just 11.1 minutes per game, but he’s played in 38 contests, a far more significant sample size. And guess what, per 36 minutes, he’s posting 9 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.1 blocks. His PER is at 15.2, above league average and closer to Chris Kaman than Kwame Brown.

Look: I’m not arguing that these numbers prove something. They definitely don’t. There’s still plenty of opportunity for either of these players to faulter. But the numbers suggest that Hill, for sure, and probably Thabeet too, should actually be playing a bit more than they currently are. I mean seriously, Hill is light years better than Jared Jeffries

Neither of these players are busts right now. They’re rookies who haven’t managed to crack the rotation this year. By the same token, Jerryd Bayless couldn’t get a shot until the Blazers were hit by all sorts of injuries, but he had pretty good rate numbers. Now, he’s delivering on those rate numbers and looking like the perfect backcourt compliment to Roy that we all knew he could be.

All I’m saying is, give these guys a chance before you call them busts. If you want a raw center bust to mock, why not Saer Sene or Sagana Diop or Michael Olowokandi? None of those guys is ever going to be good. 

[llperez]

i liked what i saw from hill against the lakers the other day in about 9 minutes of pt. D’Antonni seems like a coach who allows personal feelings to effect his substitution patterns, so maybe he just doesn’t trust hill yet. As for thabeet, i haven’t seen enough of him to evaluate him.

[GreenLanternParticipant]

I like what I see out of Thabeet also. I never understood the notion that if you don’t play your rookie year as a teenager/early 20 year old, you are a failure as a player. Thabeet has a good activity level out there and playing behind Gasol seems to be helping him as well as the team obviously.

[JNixonParticipant]

I can speak for Jordan Hill in saying that he deserves more time…He brings alot of energy to the game and is a very good rebounder and he seeks out contact, which is always a good trait to have as a big man. He needs polish on offense, but when he gets it, he can be a 15-9 type player. He has alot of upside…

[JoeWolf1]

I’ve been following Thabeet this season and he has posted some solid games through out the year, every week or so he’ll have a 4 block or a 6 or 8 rebound game. He has shown some progress and has earned him a bigger role than he had at the beginning of the season. I think he is going to be a solid NBA center who is going to be a defensive game changer, but who knows if he will ever develop much of an offensive game. I think a worse case scenario is a guy who will be in the top 3 in shot blocking but not do much else but rebound a little( Shawn Bradley type ) but I think he has the potential to be a great rebounder too who could realisticly produce near his 36 minutes per game estimate.

[joecheck88Participant]

Thabeet will be better than Bradley, he is more mobile and athletic than Bradley. The thing I like about Thabeet is that when he gets a pass inside he throws it down with power. I think that he may never be a 13ppg guy but he can be the starting center or backup center that gets 8ppg 8rpg and 2 bpg in 20-24minutes. That may not be worth the number 2 pick but they are very helpful for good teams. Guys like Brendan haywood, joel Pryzbilla, or Ben Wallace. And when his rookie contract is up they wont have to give him big money. I think if the Grizzlies can keep Gasol, Thabeet, Conley, Mayo and Gay together for the right price, this is going to be a solid team for 8-10 years ala Spurs or Pistons of the 2000’s.

[Adi Joseph]

Yeah, I think he was saying Bradley was a worst case scenario. I still think both of these players COULD reach their max potential, which for Thabeet would be something similar to Dikembe Mutombo and Hill could be a bit like Chris Bosh, though less skilled.

[JoeWolf1]

Yeah, I meant the worst case like 6 ppg 7 rpg and 2.5 or 3 bpg ( like Bradley used to do), but I agree with you Adi_Joseph, I think Thabeet could reach his max potential. I like Hill’s game too, but I just haven’t seen enough of him to make a judgement, but I have noticed he’s been getting more minutes lately and prodcuing,

[joecheck88Participant]

Ok, yea i see that. And i agree 100% that they both COULD reach their potential because it’s their first season. But I have 1 question. Because the prediction is Dikembe Mutombo and Chris Bosh, both who have been multiple all stars, how many multiple all stars have had season where they averaged 11 minutes a game or played in 19 games halfway through their rookie season? Don’t you think if they were going to be all star caliber players they would be producing better and earning the coaches’ trust already?

Mutombo’s rookie numbers were: 16.5ppg, 12.3rpg and 3bpg in 38 minutes with (8 career all star games)
Bosh’s rookie numbers were: 11.5, 7.5rpg, and 1.5bpg in 33min with 1 year of college (4 career all star games at 25 yo)
and at 22 years old, which is the same age as jordan hill, bosh was getting 22 and 9.

My point is that usually if you can play, you are usually getting minutes your rookie year like taj gibson with chicago. He is a rookie that had alot of questions about wheter he could play PF in the NBA, and is playing really well and jordan Hill has twice the ability of Taj Gibson.

[Disrespect_MeParticipant]

taj gibson is 24

[Disrespect_MeParticipant]

can be a franchise defensive anchor potentially

I wonder how many minutes per game he’ll play in his prime

I wonder if he can be traded for Knicks, Wizards, Pistons should try if they havent already

[joecheck88Participant]

I know Gibson is older, that is why I used him as an example, He isnt as talented as Hill, and he is just as skinny but he gets minutes because he works hard. If Gibson can get minutes on a team that has a similar record to the Knicks, why can’t Hill. My point was usually guys with a lot of talent usually play extended minutes even their rookie years. And that I can’t think of a guy that didnt play his rookie year, while healthy, and ended up being a great player.

[bkballerParticipant]

Certain coaches just don’t play rookies a lot. D’Antoni is very set on playing an 8 man rotation, with the 8th man only getting 5-10 minutes, so Rookies generally never see the court regardless of how good they can be one day. Plus the Knicks have like 3 PF/C that are in their contract year so they can’t just not play them. Wait until the trade deadline when the Knicks clear up some of that dead weight and I promise you hill will see more time.

[JNixonParticipant]

Tayshaun Prince, Michael Redd, Andrew Bynum and Lou Willliams are all guys off the top of my head that played very little in their rookie years and turned out to be at least above average NBA players. Im sure there are more…

[Adi Joseph]

Jermaine O’Neal rotted on the bench for four years with the Blazers.

[JoeWolf1]

Kobe Bryant averaged 7 points his rookie year and 15 his second and is regarded as one of the best if not the best player of his era.

John Stockton took 3 years to average in double digits in points or assists and Steve Nash took 4 and a half years to make any significant impact in the NBA, never averaging above 9.1 points or 5.5 assits in his first four years.

[Adi Joseph]

Nash is a great example.

Manu Ginobili spent three years overseas AFTER being drafted, and when he came to the Spurs finally, still only saw limited action.

But let’s look at big men, as that’s who this deals with:

• Jermaine O’Neal – Was not a rotation player until his FIFTH year in the league. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealje01.html
• Ben Wallace – Horrible in 6 minutes per game his first year. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wallabe01.html
• Erick Dampier – Only got up to 16 minutes per game as a rookie because he got a starting job when the season was clearly meaningless. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dampier01.html
• Brad Miller – 12 minutes per game in 38 games as a rookie. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millebr01.html
• David Lee – Toiled away for 17 minutes per game as a rookie. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leeda02.html
• Samuel Dalembert – 5.8 minutes per game as a rookie. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dalemsa01.html
• Kendrick Perkins – essentially didn’t play as a rookie, then barely played as a sophomore. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/perkike01.html

There’s plenty more examples, particularly if you start looking through NBA history.

 

The bottom line is, Hill and Thabeet are just finishing up the first halves of their first years. I would put big money down on both of them being better than Taj Gibson, and I actually like Gibson as a very good backup and borderline starter.

 

I would be quite surprised if Thabeet and Hill didn’t go to at least a couple All-Star games, combined. We need to not give up on two bigmen who we KNEW needed time in the first halves of their rookie years before they’re even given court time to match their limited-minute production.

 

[Disrespect_MeParticipant]

All-Star games? we talkin bout all star games?

how many of these guys were championship caliber centers in their prime?

not many bcuz they were matching up against shaquille o’neal,

arguably the most dominant big man ever

that’s why those guys didnt play they werent as dominant as SHAQ

its all about winning the title

its not after Shaq slowed down
that those guys had a decent shot at the title

[Chicago1980Participant]

I really like Thabeet I think that he goes out there and plays hard because he knows that he only has a limited amount of PT to start with he goes after every shot and he is a good rebounder like someone said before I think playing behind Gasol has really helped him a lot.

[Disrespect_MeParticipant]

nowadays to compete 4 a championship

u need 2 bigs to dominate the glass

a dominant PF with size and SKILLS and a serviceable center with size

Garnett & Perkins
(outmuscled and outhustled the Lakers)
Gasol & Bynum
(outrebounded Magic and Nuggets)

[Disrespect_MeParticipant]

Most Likely to Help Win An NBA Championship:
http://www.nbadraft.net/node/17353

[Author]

Posts