[piratejpParticipant]

Here you go all you non-insiders…enjoy!

Chad Ford 12/17/13

The 2014 NBA draft continues to look better and better by the week.

At this point there are six players getting serious looks as a potential No. 1 pick. The freshman class is particularly strong. Seven players in our top 10 and 11 in our top 20 are in their first year. In other words, not only is the draft deep at the top, it has significant depth all the way into the teens. For teams with multiple picks, this is a cornucopia.

Here’s our fourth Big Board of the 2014 NBA draft.

1 Andrew Wiggins
SCHOOL: Kansas
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-8, 195
POS: SG

15.9 PPG
5.9 RPG
1.2 APG

Wiggins continues to face harsh scrutiny, especially after a tepid performance in the Battle 4 Atlantis and career-low six points against UTEP. But he’s recently looked the part of the No. 1 pick again, scoring 22 points against Colorado and 26 against Florida. Wiggins has become more aggressive taking the ball to the basket and took a total of 17 free throws in those two games before having another off game against New Mexico on Saturday. Given that scouts are primarily concerned with his lack of aggressiveness, that’s a very good sign if he can start doing it consistently.

Previous rank: No. 1 | PLAYER CARD

2 Jabari Parker
SCHOOL: Duke
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-8, 241
POS: SF

22.1 PPG
7.8 RPG
1.8 APG

The longer the season goes on, the more scouts are switching their allegiances to Parker as their favorite to go No. 1. He’s a scoring machine. He has a high basketball IQ. He can play multiple positions on the floor, and his lack of elite defensive abilities combined with the occasional struggle against long, athletic defenders are the only real knocks on him at the moment.

Previous rank: No. 3 | PLAYER CARD

3 Joel Embiid
SCHOOL: Kansas
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 7-0, 240
POS: C

9.8 PPG
6.5 RPG
2.4 BPG

Embiid has made his way into KUs starting lineup, and while his numbers dont scream No. 1 pick, every time hes on the floor hes a game changer. No one thought Embiid would be this far along so early. He seems to be getting better by the game and had a career-high 18 points against New Mexico on Saturday. While he might be a bit of a risky No. 1 pick, the upside is evident. Im not sure theres a player in this draft who could be more dominant if he lived up to his potential.

Previous rank: No. 6 | PLAYER CARD

4 Julius Randle
SCHOOL: Kentucky
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-9, 225
POS: PF

17.2 PPG
11.4 RPG
2.0 APG

Randle gets all the credit for his outstanding eight double-doubles in his first 11 games, but his offensive production has cooled off a bit. Randle scored 20 or more points in four of his first five games. But he hasn’t cracked the 20-point mark since Nov. 19 against Texas-Arlington. And against North Carolina on Saturday, he had a career low of 11 points. While scouts are quite high on him (and a little baffled that John Calipari doesn’t use him a little more on the perimeter), his stock has taken a slight dip thanks in part to the strong play of Parker and Embiid.

Previous rank: No. 2 | PLAYER CARD

5 Dante Exum
COUNTRY: Australia
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-6, 188
POS: PG

18.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG at FIBA U-19s

Exum’s Australian team, Lake Ginninderra, took home the national schools basketball title last week. While Exum struggled with his shooting a bit in the playoffs, he had 15 assists in the final game and came home with the title. As we’ve been reporting for weeks, Exum’s next step likely will be the NBA draft. He’s leaning heavily toward skipping college and declaring directly for the draft.

Previous rank: No. 4 | PLAYER CARD

6 Marcus Smart
SCHOOL: Oklahoma State
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-4, 225
POS: PG

19.0 PPG
4.9 RPG
3.9 APG

After wowing scouts early in the season with his shooting and low turnovers, Smart’s numbers have come back to earth. He’s still shooting it better than he did as a freshman, but scouts are going to want to him to shoot it at a better clip (he was 1-for-14 from 3-point range against Butler, Memphis and Louisiana Tech). And he must keep the turnovers down (he had 15 combined against those opponents) if he’s going to make the argument that he’s the No. 1 pick.

Previous rank: No. 5 | PLAYER CARD

7 Aaron Gordon
SCHOOL: Arizona
AGE: 17
HT/WT: 6-8, 210
POS: PF

12.1 PPG
8.2 RPG
1.3 BPG

While many NBA scouts included Gordon’s name right alongside Wiggins, Randle and Parker coming into the season, he’s struggled to move his draft stock at all. While the defensive and athletic abilities are apparent, he’s not quite the scorer scouts were hoping to see as he made the transition from the 3 to the 4.

Previous rank: No. 7 | PLAYER CARD

8 Dario Saric
COUNTRY: Croatia
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-10, 223
POS: SF

13.6 PPG
7.5 RPG
2.5 APG

Saric played his best game of the year against Igokea last Sunday, scoring 22 points, grabbing 11 boards and dishing out 6 assists. He continues to look like the only international player besides Exum who is going to crack the lottery this season.

Previous rank: No. 8 | PLAYER CARD

9 Noah Vonleh
SCHOOL: Indiana
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-10, 240
POS: PF

12.4 PPG
9.6 RPG
1.0 BPG

Randle might be a double-double machine, but Vonleh isn’t far behind. The super freshman has six double-doubles this year and continues to prove popular with NBA scouts who know that their teams don’t have a great shot of cracking the top five in the lottery. While not as polished offensively as Randle, Vonleh looks like a top-tier NBA rebounder and defender.

Previous rank: No. 9 | PLAYER CARD

10 Zach LaVine
SCHOOL: UCLA
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-5, 180
POS: PG

13.8 PPG
2.9 RPG
2.2 APG

We covered LaVine’s rise in our Stock Watch last week. His stock still is on the rise. It’s rare for players to have the combination of tools he possesses — size for the position, elite athletic ability and a jump shot. While he isn’t really running the point for UCLA, most scouts who have seen him in high school think he has all the tools to be a NBA point guard down the road. If he can keep shooting as well as he’s done all year, he could creep into the top five or six.

Previous rank: NR | PLAYER CARD

11 James Young
SCHOOL: Kentucky
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-7, 200
POS: SF

14.1 PPG
4.0 RPG
1.7 APG

While a number of top prospects have seen their early-season shooting touch disappear the past few weeks, Young finally has begun to find his range. He drew raves from the UK coaching staff in the preseason as a lights-out shooter, and he’s been shooting the ball better lately. He’s 13-for-28 from 3 in his last four games.

Previous rank: No. 12 | PLAYER CARD

12 Rodney Hood
SCHOOL: Duke
AGE: 21
HT/WT: 6-8, 180
POS: SG

19.3 PPG
5.0 RPG
1.9 APG

After a red-hot start to the season, Hood’s shooting has regressed back to the mean. He’s made just three of his past 13 3-point attempts. Nevertheless, the Duke sophomore still is shooting a sizzling 54 percent from 3.

Previous rank: No. 11 | PLAYER CARD

13 Gary Harris
SCHOOL: Michigan State
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-4, 210
POS: SG

17.6 PPG
4.4 RPG
2.7 APG

Harris’ shooting woes continued against North Carolina on Dec. 4. To date, he’s shot just 50 percent from the field once this season — in the big win against Kentucky — and has hit better than 33 percent from the 3-point line only once, against McNeese State. While scouts hold him in high regard, if his shot doesn’t start falling, he will. He missed Saturday’s game against Oakland with a sprained ankle.

Previous rank: No. 10 | PLAYER CARD

14 Chris Walker
SCHOOL: Florida
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-9, 195
POS: SF

N/A
N/A
N/A

Scouts were eyeing Tuesday for Walker’s debut in a Gators uniform at the Jimmy V Classic versus Memphis. However, it appears that Walker’s debut is going to be pushed back even further. The key will be to get him into the rotation by the time SEC play starts in January. He’s so talented. If he can get minutes, he could take a spot in the top 10.

Previous rank: No. 15 | PLAYER CARD

15 Montrezl Harrell
SCHOOL: Louisville
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-8, 235
POS: PF

12.3 PPG
8.7 RPG
1.5 BPG

Randle and Vonleh are the two low-post beasts at the top half of the lottery. But Harrell is holding his own, too. His rebounding numbers are a little bit behind both Randle and Vonleh, but Harrell’s shooting an impressive 63 percent from the field, 10 percent higher than either of the other two.

Previous rank: No. 16 | PLAYER CARD

16 Jerami Grant
SCHOOL: Syracuse
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-8, 203
POS: SF

13.2 PPG
6.0 RPG
1.9 APG

Grant continues to show off his elite leaping abilities, and a nice little midrange jumper. What scouts want to see more of is his 3-point shot. He’s only taken three all season, and hasn’t made one yet.

Previous rank: No. 21 | PLAYER CARD

17 Willie Cauley-Stein
SCHOOL: Kentucky
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 7-0, 220
POS: C

8.7 PPG
8.1 RPG
4.4 BPG

Cauley-Stein still isn’t a dominant player on the offensive end, but one thing he’s improved on significantly is blocking shots. This season, he ranks 10th in the country in block percentage, scoring a block on 14.7 percent of opponent’s two-point shots.

Previous rank No. 25 | PLAYER CARD

18 Mario Hezonja
COUNTRY: Croatia
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-7, 200
POS: SF

2.5 PPG
2.3 RPG
7.0 MPG

Hezonja still isn’t doing much right now. He’s made a total of five baskets all year in the ACB League and just two baskets in Euroleague play. Nevertheless, scouts continue to insist that if Hezonja had the same opportunities that Dario Saric had in regards to playing time and shots, he would be much higher on our Board.

Previous rank: No. 18 | PLAYER CARD

19 Wayne Selden Jr.
SCHOOL: Kansas
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-5, 230
POS: SG

3.7 PPG
3.0 RPG
2.0 APG

Selden is a great prospect, but he is not yet dominating the ways scouts would like. He had one of his worst games of the season against Florida: a four-point, four-turnover stinker. The turnovers are a problem in general, as he’s had 13 in the past four games.

Previous rank: No. 13 | PLAYER CARD

20 Andrew Harrison
SCHOOL: Kentucky
AGE: 18
HT/WT: 6-5, 207
POS: PG

10.9 PPG
2.4 RPG
3.8 APG

Harrison continues to be on the Big Board more because of his reputation coming in than his actual performance on the court. The area where he’s been most effective is getting to the line. In fact, he’s taken 74 free throws compared to 71 shots. That’s pretty amazing. But with so many talented players on Kentucky’s roster, why isn’t his assist total higher?

Previous rank: No. 14 | PLAYER CARD

21 Doug McDermott
SCHOOL: Creighton
AGE: 21
HT/WT: 6-7, 210
POS: SF

25.3 PPG
6.9 RPG
0.9 APG

McDermott had his first bad game of the season, scoring just seven points on 2-for-12 shooting against George Washington. But a week later he was back to his old ways, dropping 33 points (including five 3-pointers) on Nebraska. I’m not sure how much higher he can climb on this board because of his athletic ceiling, but if he keeps this up all year, he’s going to be a mid-first round pick.

Previous rank: No. 20 | PLAYER CARD

22 Sam Dekker
SCHOOL: Wisconsin
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-8, 215
POS: SF

14.3 PPG
5.8 RPG
1.3 APG

Dekker has had double-doubles in two of his last five games, and another eight rebounds and six assists against Milwaukee. When his shot is falling, he’s one of the more versatile players in the country. Not every scout in the NBA is in love with him. But those that are, really are.

Previous rank: No. 22 | PLAYER CARD

23 Adreian Payne
SCHOOL: Michigan State
AGE: 22
HT/WT: 6-10, 245
POS: F/C

16.3 PPG
8.0 RPG
1.2 BPG

Payne continues his transition offensively into a stretch four. He’s averaging nearly four 3-pointers a game this season, and shooting a sizzling 46 percent from beyond the arc. His first two years as a collegian gave little evidence that this is who he would ultimately be, but now that he’s shooting 3s with this regularity, most scouts believe that this will be his ultimate role in the NBA.

Previous rank: 24 | PLAYER CARD

24 Mitch McGary
SCHOOL: Michigan
AGE: 21
HT/WT: 6-10, 250
POS: PF

9.5 PPG
8.3 RPG
1.5 APG

McGary has been struggling to keep up with the high bar he set for himself in the NCAA tournament. The games against Duke and Houston Baptist served as the first real glimpses of last season’s tournament darling before he put up an unimpressive four points versus Arizona. It’s unclear how much of a role back issues are playing in McGary’s slow start, but if he starts playing the way he did against Duke, he’ll be moving back up in the rankings. However, the fear is that it’s the athletic teams like Arizona that will give him problems. Not a great harbinger for NBA success.

Previous rank: No. 23 | PLAYER CARD

25 Glenn Robinson III
SCHOOL: Michigan
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-6, 210
POS: SF

13.0 PPG
4.9 RPG
1.7 APG

Robinson has the athletic ability and the pedigree, but uneven performances against top competition continue to haunt him. He disappeared for much of the Duke game and watched his stock bottom out. He was much better against Arizona, but scouts expected him to be a go-to player for Michigan this season. So far, he’s actually regressed from a solid freshman season and needs to show more consistency.

Previous rank: No. 17 | PLAYER CARD

26 Jahii Carson
SCHOOL: Arizona State
AGE: 20
HT/WT: 5-10, 175
POS: PG

19.9 PPG
3.8 RPG
5.2 APG

Carson continues to be one of the best scoring guards in college basketball. He’s shooting 50 percent on 3-pointers, and 52 percent from the field overall; both figures are quite remarkable for a guard his size. He had a major hiccup against Miami, but other than that he’s been spectacular.

Previous rank: No. 19 | PLAYER CARD

27 Spencer Dinwiddie
SCHOOL: Colorado
AGE: 20
HT/WT: 6-6, 200
POS: SG

15.5 PPG
3.6 RPG
4.0 APG

Dinwiddie got the chance to perform on the big stage versus Kansas. While his jump shot wasn’t falling, he recorded his highest assist total of the season (seven) with only one turnover. Scouts I spoke with at the game walked away impressed. The key for Dinwiddie is convincing scouts that he’s a legitimate point guard. He helped himself in that regard in the Kansas game, and followed it up with another seven-assist game against Elon.

Previous rank: No. 30 | PLAYER CARD

28 Jabari Bird
SCHOOL: Cal
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-6, 190
POS: SG

11.9 PPG
3.1 RPG
1.2 APG

Bird’s coming out party was at the Maui Invitational, but he had another solid game against Nevada recently (and a not-so-solid one against Fresno State). Offensively, he’s a prototypical two guard in the NBA. Defensively, he still has a long way to go. He’ll need to make a much more concerted effort on the defensive end to get much higher on the Big Board.

Previous rank: No. 26 | PLAYER CARD

29 Jordan Adams
SCHOOL: UCLA
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-5, 220
POS: SG

21.2 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.5 SPG

Adams is off to a great start offensively. But he’s proven to be more than just a scoring machine. He also ranks third in the country in steals percentage, nabbing a steal every 6.7 possessions. Given that the biggest complaint from scouts about Adams was his defense, that’s a telling stat, and explains why he’s moved back into the top 30.

Previous rank: NR | PLAYER CARD

30 Brandon Ashley
SCHOOL: Arizona
AGE: 19
HT/WT: 6-8, 230
POS: SF

12.8 PPG
6.5 RPG
0.7 APG

After an uneven start to the season, Ashley has been putting up consistently good numbers on offense for Arizona lately. Most importantly to scouts, he’s showing that he has legit range on his 3-point shot. Scouts want him to make the transition to the 3 in the NBA, and he’s showing signs this season that he’s capable of doing so. Given the elite physical tools he possesses, he’s going to continue to rise if he keeps shooting this well. I had several scouts put him in the mid-first round.

Previous rank: NR | PLAYER CARD

Next five in: Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame; Semaj Christon, G, Xavier; Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky; T.J. Warren, F, NC State; Ron Baker, G, Wichita State

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

 Andrew Harrison and Spencer Dinwiddie above elfrid payton is crazy. 

[i’m jus so offendedParticipant]

 I’m pretty sure you are Elfrid Payton

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

Naw every year i look for the most underrated player in the draft wit high potential and try puttin em out there. Did the same wit paul george and tony wroten 

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

Naw every year i look for the most underrated player in the draft wit high potential and try puttin em out there. Did the same wit paul george and tony wroten 

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

Naw every year i look for the most underrated player in the draft wit high potential and try puttin em out there. Did the same wit paul george and tony wroten 

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

Naw every year i look for the most underrated player in the draft wit high potential and try puttin em out there. Did the same wit paul george and tony wroten 

[i’m jus so offendedParticipant]

 I’m pretty sure you are Elfrid Payton

[Ty BenjaminsParticipant]

 Andrew Harrison and Spencer Dinwiddie above elfrid payton is crazy. 

[Chilbert arenasParticipant]

I don’t see either Brandon Ashley or Aaron Gordon playing the 3 at the next level despite their sizes they just don’t have the ball handling nor range.

[Chilbert arenasParticipant]

I don’t see either Brandon Ashley or Aaron Gordon playing the 3 at the next level despite their sizes they just don’t have the ball handling nor range.

[BajeebzParticipant]

Every year Ford puts the prospects into draft tiers. I’m uncertain if he’s already organized the 2014 class, but this is what I’d imagine it look like (using this current Big Board):

Tier One: franchise-changing potential—Wiggins, Parker, Embiid
Tier Two: projected all-stars—Randle, Exum, Smart, Gordon, LaVine
Tier Three: starters with all-star potential IF everything goes right—Saric, Vonleh, Young, Hood, Harris, Walker, Selden, Hezonja
Tier Four: talent with starter potential—Harrell, Grant, Cauley-Stein, Harrison, McDermott, Dekker, Payne, McGary, Robinson III, Bird, Adams
Tier Five: quality role players—Carson, Dinwiddie, Ashley
Tier Six: the bench warmers—Nobody on this Big Board

WTF!? This can’t be right. Tell me I have this all wrong. According to my rankings (which could be way off) there are 8 projected all-stars, and 8 more with all-star POTENTIAL. 16 seems ridiculous. Did I not organize this correctly?

How many of these guys do YOU think can honestly be all-stars at some point in their careers?

[machu46Participant]

Asking who we think can be and who we think will be is a huge difference.  I think there’s 2-4 guys that will make an all-star game at some point in their career, but there’s a ton of guys that could if they reach their potential.

[BajeebzParticipant]

yeah, that’s true. I mean there are guys like James Young and Mario Hezonja who could turn into Michael Redd and Drazen Petrovic, but it’s more likely they’ll be more like Nick Young and Alexey Shved.

[BajeebzParticipant]

yeah, that’s true. I mean there are guys like James Young and Mario Hezonja who could turn into Michael Redd and Drazen Petrovic, but it’s more likely they’ll be more like Nick Young and Alexey Shved.

[machu46Participant]

Asking who we think can be and who we think will be is a huge difference.  I think there’s 2-4 guys that will make an all-star game at some point in their career, but there’s a ton of guys that could if they reach their potential.

[DaGuywhodidurmaParticipant]

 Chad ford doesnt always use all the tiers. For example if there arent any guys worthy of tier 1 or 2 he aimply skips that tier.

 

Me personally I would move gordon out of your tier 2 and put him in  tier 3 and then move those tier 3 guys into 4th tier. I dont really think any of those guys have allstar potential at all. 

 

 

[BajeebzParticipant]

Even seven All-Stars seems like a ton. It’s crazy to think about though– if most of these guys actually pan-out. I’m not one of those posters who over-inflates stat predictions by saying that every lottery pick will average double figures in their rookie year. However, I am entertaining the notion that this draft could turn out to be an anomaly of sorts, with the potential to be legendary.

[BajeebzParticipant]

Even seven All-Stars seems like a ton. It’s crazy to think about though– if most of these guys actually pan-out. I’m not one of those posters who over-inflates stat predictions by saying that every lottery pick will average double figures in their rookie year. However, I am entertaining the notion that this draft could turn out to be an anomaly of sorts, with the potential to be legendary.

[DaGuywhodidurmaParticipant]

 Chad ford doesnt always use all the tiers. For example if there arent any guys worthy of tier 1 or 2 he aimply skips that tier.

 

Me personally I would move gordon out of your tier 2 and put him in  tier 3 and then move those tier 3 guys into 4th tier. I dont really think any of those guys have allstar potential at all. 

 

 

[BajeebzParticipant]

Every year Ford puts the prospects into draft tiers. I’m uncertain if he’s already organized the 2014 class, but this is what I’d imagine it look like (using this current Big Board):

Tier One: franchise-changing potential—Wiggins, Parker, Embiid
Tier Two: projected all-stars—Randle, Exum, Smart, Gordon, LaVine
Tier Three: starters with all-star potential IF everything goes right—Saric, Vonleh, Young, Hood, Harris, Walker, Selden, Hezonja
Tier Four: talent with starter potential—Harrell, Grant, Cauley-Stein, Harrison, McDermott, Dekker, Payne, McGary, Robinson III, Bird, Adams
Tier Five: quality role players—Carson, Dinwiddie, Ashley
Tier Six: the bench warmers—Nobody on this Big Board

WTF!? This can’t be right. Tell me I have this all wrong. According to my rankings (which could be way off) there are 8 projected all-stars, and 8 more with all-star POTENTIAL. 16 seems ridiculous. Did I not organize this correctly?

How many of these guys do YOU think can honestly be all-stars at some point in their careers?

[Sewok15Participant]

Wayne Selden is averaging 8.7 PPG not 3.7….ESPN and their errors….

[Sewok15Participant]

Wayne Selden is averaging 8.7 PPG not 3.7….ESPN and their errors….

[Author]

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