[NbanflguyParticipant]

A look at the draft’s intriguing prospects
June, 21, 2010Jun 219:31AM ETEmailPrintComments4For the second year in a row, I have been hearing how the NBA draft is a weak crop.

Relative to 2003, perhaps it is. But there are some quality players and solid talents in this draft, and there is a good depth of good players. Is there an abundance of sure-fire all-stars and can’t-miss stars? Perhaps not. But there is good value in this draft, and there are some players who might go in the second round who are just as capable as the late first-rounders.

I also hear something really stupid every year when there is disagreement about a player. I hear that some clubs “haven’t done their homework” on a certain player when there is disagreement over a prospect. That is baloney. Every year, some players make it in the NBA, and some players do not.

While you can try to limit your draft mistakes by gathering every possible bit of available information, there is not an NBA executive — living or dead — who has not made mistakes in evaluating talent in the draft. If it were only so easy as to suggest that people who disagree with you “haven’t done their homework.”

That is so weak.

This draft, like most of them, will produce some reasonable disagreement because there are players who are easy to like and believe in, and some who are easy to dislike and doubt. Unfortunately, when you draft a player, it seems less about the player you select and more about the players who you pass up.

The 2010 NBA draft is long on power forwards and short on point guards. There is little drama at the top, but some interesting choices will be made past the first four selections. Here is how I look at some of the top-10 prospects in this draft and some things to think about as you evaluate the talent available this year. These are not pronouncements, but opinions. Reasonable basketball minds can differ on players and their potential. The good news is that none of these opinions can make or break a player. Once we are done spouting off about how good we think these players are, they have to go out and play, and our words and thoughts cannot help or hurt any of these prospects. That is a wonderful thing.

John Wall, Kentucky: There is not a faster or more explosive player in this draft, and Wall is as speedy end to end with the ball in his hands as any prospect I can recall. He is fast enough to play ahead of the defense, and he is at his best in transition. Like Tyreke Evans last year, Wall can get into the lane, and he has the explosiveness and athleticism to finish plays. While he is not a great shooter, Wall has a decent shooting stroke that can be improved to where you have to go out and guard him. He needs to improve his efficiency in half-court situations, especially pick-and-roll action, and he turns the ball over at too high a rate. But he’s the best prospect in this draft. He has the length, athleticism and competitiveness to be a really good defender, and he can get steals, deflections and can make basket-saving defensive plays. Wall is a no-brainer with the No. 1 overall selection.

JAY’S BEST AVAILABLE
You can throw out specific team needs or where players will actually be drafted. The following is simply a list of the 30 best players available, according to Jay Bilas:
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1. John Wall, Kentucky
2. Evan Turner, Ohio State
3. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
4. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse
5. Greg Monroe, Georgetown
6. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
7. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
8. Ekpe Udoh, Baylor
9. Luke Babbitt, Nevada
10. James Anderson, Oklahoma State
11. Cole Aldrich, Kansas
12. Ed Davis, North Carolina
13. Gordon Hayward, Butler
14. Xavier Henry, Kansas
15. Damion James, Texas
16. Paul George, Fresno State
17. Avery Bradley, Texas
18. Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky
19. Jordan Crawford, Xavier
20. Solomon Alabi, Florida State
21. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky
22. Hassan Whiteside, Marshall
23. Larry Sanders, VCU
24. Dominique Jones, South Florida
25. Elliot Williams, Memphis
26. Kevin Seraphin, France
27. Jerome Jordan, Tulsa
28. Quincy Pondexter, Washington
29. Craig Brackins, Iowa State
30. Armon Johnson, Nevada

Evan Turner, Ohio State: I rank Turner as the second-best prospect in this draft. Philadelphia may have a lot of perimeter players, but I would still take Turner with the second overall selection. He has improved every single year and is a player rather than a position. I liken him to a queen on a chessboard that you can move wherever you like. He reminds me of Brandon Roy, but he’s probably not as good of a shooter.

Even though Turner is not a shooter, his shooting numbers are better than Wall’s in every category. Turner is a deceptive athlete and is very skilled. He can get into the lane and make plays, and he is a very productive scorer, rebounder and passer. I also believe that Turner will be a good defender in the NBA because of his versatility. His is competitive and will continue to get better. His shooting stroke needs some work, his hand position on the ball can improve and he needs to better manage turnovers, but Turner is a player.

Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: Favors is one of the youngest prospects in this draft, and I rank him as the best frontcourt prospect. He is really long-armed, with a wingspan of 7-foot-4 and a reach of 9-2, and he is an elite athlete with the body and tools to be a productive starter in the NBA. He rebounded at a very high rate at Georgia Tech, and that was playing alongside another really good rebounder in Gani Lawal. And he is an outstanding offensive rebounder. Favors has a nice touch, but he needs to refine his post moves, develop a face-up jumper to 17 feet and become a more assertive offensive player. Last year, about 20 percent of his shots were dunks. Favors can run the floor, rebound, block shots and he will continue to get better as long as he works at it. He needs to make sure that he keeps working on that motor and keeps working to impact the game on both ends. With his length and athleticism, Favors has the ability to be a junior version of Dwight Howard.

Wesley Johnson, Syracuse: Another long-armed and super-athletic frontcourt player, Johnson does three things very well. He makes open jump shots; he is an exceptional offensive rebounder; and he is an elite athlete in transition. Johnson has a nose for the ball and is one of the best offensive rebounders in this draft. He is not the type of player who can carry a team offensively, but he can be a second-leading scorer on a team. He doesn’t really put the ball down and attack the rim from the 3-point line, but the idea that he cannot make a dribble move to counter his jump-shooting ability is simply incorrect, in my view. If Johnson is still available at the No. 4 slot, I take him.

Greg Monroe, Georgetown: I rank Monroe as the No. 5 prospect in this draft, and I believe he can be a better pro than he was a college player. He’s a 6-foot-11 lefty with an excellent skill set. He can handle and pass like a perimeter player, and he can also face up and drive the ball. He is a high-volume rebounder on both ends, and he does not force things. Monroe can be a dangerous offensive player who can sweep it and go by you, hit an open jump shot (although he needs to improve that), and he can play the high post and deliver the ball to cutters. Some have questioned his desire, but he usually delivered when the Hoyas decided to go to him.

DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky: There is not a more talented or more productive player in this draft than Cousins. He has the arms of a 7-5 guy, soft hands, great feet and he can go get the ball. With a wide body and a strong base, Cousins is a load inside and cannot be moved off of his spot. He does not have a ton of great post moves, but he has really good instincts. He is the best offensive rebounder in the draft, but he is not in great condition, and his body fat is way too high at more than 16 percent.

The only thing that can stop DeMarcus Cousins from being an outstanding NBA player is DeMarcus Cousins. He is very immature, and he is difficult to coach. Tell me about the last great player who did not allow himself to be coached … because there are not any winners who do not allow themselves to be coached. It is not that Cousins is a bad kid; he is not. He is an immature kid who has been allowed to get away with his poor habits, and he needs to grow up and become a true pro in his attitude and approach. While some may worry that passing up Cousins would be a mistake, I would not worry about that. Unless you want to babysit him and hope he figures it out, I might just pass and let someone else do it. To me, Favors and Monroe would be better fits in the locker room of a really good NBA team.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest: An exceptional athlete with a 7-3 wingspan and the ability to run, rebound and get to the rim, Aminu has a chance to be very good in an open-court game. He is a non-shooter, but he competes on the glass on both ends, and he can block shots. I always questioned his motor because he has a sleepy look about him, and I did not think that he took some of his work as seriously as he should have, but I was really impressed with how he outplayed Texas’ Damion James in the NCAA tournament in New Orleans. Aminu is not the toughest player, but he has ability. His level of athleticism and rebounding production usually pays off in the NBA. As a small forward, he is not efficient. But as an energy guy who will go in and work, he can be valuable.

Ekpe Udoh, Baylor: I first saw Udoh at Michigan when he was a raw, gangly freshman out of Oklahoma. I had never seen him in high school but was impressed with his tools, his long arms (7-4 wingspan) and his timing to block shots and rebound. Udoh led the Big Ten in blocked shots and after a redshirt year, he matured into an outstanding player at Baylor who also led the Big 12 in blocked shots. Udoh has good footwork, can use either hand around the goal and became more than just a defensive presence for Baylor. He is athletic enough to rebound out of his area, he can face up and go off an isolation and he has the ability to hit an open jumper. While some may see Udoh as ranked a little high on my list at No. 8, I think he is a good value in this year’s draft based upon what he can do.

Luke Babbitt, Nevada: This kid is a baller. While he needs to get stronger and can improve defensively, Babbitt can really score. He averaged 22 points for Nevada, and he will be the highest pick in school history. He is a long-armed lefty with a 6-11 wingspan, an 8-8 reach, and he can really shoot it. Babbitt can throw a step-back move at you, or a jab-series move, and he can create space with his savvy and craftiness. Foul him, and he is automatic from the free throw line. He has a quick release with a high release point, and he can consistently make shots. Best of all, he competes his tail off and is unafraid.

James Anderson, Oklahoma State: I think Anderson is the best big guard in this year’s draft. He is an outstanding shooter and has expanded his game year after year in the Big 12. At first, he was a catch-and-shoot guard. Now he attacks off the dribble, uses ball screens effectively and finds his way to the free throw line. He has become harder to guard and much more effective as a primary scorer. Anderson is efficient and is an underrated athlete. He may have a question mark as to whether he can defend quick and athletic guards on the NBA level, but he can score.

Notes on the next five:

Cole Aldrich, Kansas: Aldrich is a long armed and very strong physical defensive presence who can rebound and help you defend the lane. I think he’s a serviceable backup center on a good team, and perhaps he can even start. He reminds me of a less athletic Joel Przybilla. Aldrich has some issues finishing over size, but he is fundamentally sound and can hold his position.

Ed Davis, North Carolina: Davis is a lefty rebounder and shot-blocker who has a good jump hook over his right shoulder and the ability to get to the foul line. He needs to develop a face-up jumper, which he really does not have right now. He has very good skills but his value is as a rebounder and shot-blocker.

Gordon Hayward, Butler: Hayward has a very good skill level and is a good open-court player who can finish. I have always admired the way he plays at the college level, and I really want to like him as a pro. However, I cannot help but compare him to a former top-10 pick in the past decade: Luke Jackson of Oregon. Hayward is more skilled, but he is not an elite-level athlete. He has short arms, he lacks the physical strength and weight I think he needs, and he is not a knockdown, great shooter (although I think he is a better shooter than his numbers suggest). I am not sure who he guards, and I’m not sure just how good he will be. Hayward is good, but I don’t see him as a top-10 pick.

Xavier Henry, Kansas: The lefty shooting guard has an NBA body, excellent length with a 6-11 wingspan and is a good overall athlete. Henry is a very good standstill shooter but does not attack off the bounce or post up like you would expect. He is not laterally quick, and he is not a great ball handler. Henry works hard, is coachable and willing to learn. He needs to improve his right hand, get better on the defensive end and expand his game to be successful at the NBA level.

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Ron Chenoy/US Presswire
Although he’s not a great shooter, Damion James can be a productive player in the NBA.

Damion James, Texas: James is not a primary scorer in the NBA, but he is a high-volume rebounder with a 7-foot wingspan. He has the ability to play some pick and pop. He is not a great shooter, but he is good along the baseline, can drive it some and he can guard inside or on the perimeter. James can be a good toughness and energy guy on a good NBA team. Guys like Avery Bradley and Paul George have more potential than James, but James gives you production.

Most overrated prospect

Daniel Orton, Kentucky. Orton averaged three points and three rebounds in college. What makes us think he will be such a great pro? Is he better than Randolph Morris was at Kentucky? He is a big body, but he is hardly Hakeem Olajuwon.

Most underrated prospect

James Anderson, Oklahoma State. I may be the guy who is overrating him a bit, but I think he has a nice NBA future with his shooting and scoring ability.

Biggest risk/reward prospect

DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky. His talent says take him right after Wall. His attitude says run in the other direction. At some point, he is a good value. But if you are a GM and the guardian of your team’s culture, how do you put Cousins in your locker room and not expect problems?

Could go either way prospect

Gordon Hayward, Butler. People probably had the same reservations about Chris Mullin, but I don’t think that Hayward is Chris Mullin. He is a good prospect, but he has some question marks, too.

Most intriguing prospect

Hassan Whiteside, Marshall. This kid has a wingspan of 7-7 and can swat small airplanes out of the sky, but he is raw as hamburger meat. If he has a good head on those shoulders, he can be good. But he does not seem to have any idea what he is doing just yet. In the mid to late first round, he is a good pick. Earlier than that, you should go with more of a sure thing.

Best value scoring guards

Jordan Crawford, Xavier and Dominique Jones, South Florida. Crawford is an explosive scorer who can really make shots, but he does not get to the free throw line like he should. Jones is a big, strong, physical guard who can bully his way past you, and he reminds some of Marcus Thornton of LSU. Late in the first round, these two guards are really good values.

Best value skilled bigs

Jerome Jordan, Tulsa and Craig Brackins, Iowa State. Both of these bigs are very skilled, but they have been tagged as a bit soft. Jordan is long and has every skill you would want, but he did not dominate C-USA like he should have this year. He reminds me of Chris Gatling, and I would not hesitate to go for him late in the first round. Brackins played on a poor team and did not have a great year, but he has ability. He is another guy who might not crack the first round based upon the season that he had, but I would take a chance on him late.

[Michael.S.Participant]

thanks for posting.

[NbanflguyParticipant]

yeah no problem

[Michael.S.Participant]

Can’t really disagree with nothing here either. The comments are spot on, though I think he could have been more descrptive.

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