[HitsterParticipant]

Looking at last week’s draft it occured to me that there were no real standout Rookie of the Year candidates when you first look at the draft.

A lot will depend on who gets playing time at their various teams – Risacher should see good minutes but will he start ahead of Hunter. Sarr is likely to start but given his size he is likely to be developed slowly. Sheppard will be a bench guy and get points but how many shots will he get? Castle I’d say will see very good minutes but he’s not really a stat filler. All these 4 guys should be All Rookie choices in my opinion.

Holland and Salaun I’d not like to guess on their playing time. Clingan will be behind Ayton and Grant in the pecking order. Dillingham like Sheppard will be a bench guy continuing their Kentucky roles.

Edey I can see being a starter from day one but how will he adapt to the NBA? If he can then he’d be a RoY frontrunner maybe with Castle and Risacher as my early top 3.

Cody Williams is my wildcard as if Utah move Markanen he might see big minutes. A lot of teams have to fill rosters out and the likes of Knecht, McCain etc could be regular rotation players.

Is there a sleep prospect lower down the draft or in the 2nd round who could be a RoY darkhorse or who else do you see as the frontrunner?

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I think you hit it on the nose here… No big standouts this year to be frontrunners for ROY. I think Edey, Knecht and McCain probably have the best chances atm, but someone somewhere is bound to get an injury to open up playing time opportunities for a rookie. Castle might have a chance too. Idk what to think of Buzelis on the Bulls. Not a super Darkhorse but might have a chance to play some. There are some interesting battles for sure. I think Enrique Freeman on Indiana will outplay Furphy at least statistically this season. I like Tyler Smith to outperform where he landed in the draft. If Utah develops Cody Wiliams that fast to be ROY it would be impressive. Doubt it, and it would have to take some maneuvering on Utah’s part for it to be possible. If I were an NBA owner, I would have advised management to punt on this draft though.

[ZouldiersParticipant]

I’ll say this. This year’s rookie of the year race is similar to 2016 where we may see a 2nd round pick win it and given the health of my Miami Heat, I won’t be surprised if Ware or Larsson compete for that award like Jaquez last year.

[HitsterParticipant]

This season just gone Jacquez and Podziemski were mainly bench players and didn’t put up great scoring numbers but looked very good potential team players and so earned All Rookie First Team slots. I can see the likes of Castle, McCain and Knecht fall into this category.

But there isn’t a Wemby, Miller or Chet who we can obviously see who will be a top option on their team from day one.

I haven’t heard about any Euro stashers from previous drafts who may be coming over this year either and could be more NBA ready.

[dmo21Participant]

I had Sarr as my front runner. But now they signed Valanciunas to give Sarr time to develop. So that drops him in my rankings too. The wildcard is Edey as they will probably start him beside JJJ like they did with Adams.

[HitsterParticipant]

I think Sarr starts at PF with Valanciunas at C for the Wizards but with the Wizards signing Jonas it will possibly take minutes away from Sarr. I think Edey has been drafted to start and the Grizz reached for him, he is much more NBA ready than say Sarr might be but a lot depends how well he can run the floor with Ja’s offence.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Risacher should be the favorite. His per minute numbers across the LNB and Eurocup were really good for someone who was mostly 18 during the season. Atlanta will be invested in him, so it stands to reason he will get minutes and opportunities. After the obvious one, Buzelis would probably be #2. With the Bulls in transition, and likely going to a pacier and more ball movement offense with Giddey in place of DeRozan, it is possible he gets enough easy buckets to make himself useful if the shot is as shaky as it was last year. The likely highlight reel dunks might be a boost with media voting. If Ja’Kobe Walter shoots better in the NBA than at Baylor, possible though often not the case that HS profiles better reflect a player than college, there is an opening with Gary Trent likely leaving Toronto. Everything tells me Yves Missi is too raw to have a significant role with a Pelican team that wants to be good. Until they trade Ingram for a center, however, who else do they have? Among the 2nd rounders, Bobi Klintman might be worth a longshot flier. He is on a bad team without shooters. He shot 36% from three. If they trade Tobias Harris in midseason, he could get 30-40 games of huge minutes as a tank warrior. Pelle Larsson probably won’t get the numbers necessary to win ROY, but can definitely get some minutes. Also, based off what we heard at that Laker press conference and subsequent propaganda session among the LeBronites in the media, you can’t dismiss the 4 PPG rookie out of USC. They are still talking about his basketball IQ as though USC had him in leg chains all year.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Wondering what are our thoughts on Bronny James getting a 4 year contract for 7.9 million are… If his name wasn’t Bronny James, he would have been a transfer portal candidate. I hope the politics of pro sports doesn’t become about who you know or are related to, but rather who earns it… Imo Bronny James is bad for the NBA atm. He has a big uphill battle to turn things around. I do think Bronny isn’t as talented as some other stars’ offspring such as Alijah Arenas or the Boozer brothers, but I have a feeling they’re going to earn theirs more. A 55th pick overall that had no business being picked other than his name combined with a failure to sign anyone doesn’t sit right with Lakers followers… Thought they might improve with the Knecht pick, but with no other gain in the lineup and the core isn’t getting younger and now a guaranteed 4 year contract to an otherwise pedestrian seems ludicrous. Guess the Lakers are staying afloat in mediocracy similar to the state of the Suns this year. LeBron and Durant once the face of the league are some contractual reasons their teams are held back.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Bronny getting a three-year guarantee tells me that LeBron is eyeing his farewell season be in 2026-27 when he could play with both Bronny and Bryce. Their ploy to get Bronny and LeBron together in LA worked, so nobody should be surprised when they run it again in two years. The Lakers have their 2026 1st round pick, and it can’t move until that draft night due to them already having dealt the 2025 and 2027 ones. I don’t like what is going on, because there is an appeal to pro sports being a meritocracy. It is never a perfect one, but there is something to Haywood Highsmith being in the NBA and Shareef O’Neal or Zaire Wade not because no matter the background everybody has to earn it. Now, the Lakers can justify it on the grounds that it is better for them to have a happy LeBron than not. LeBron, himself, is worth two roster spots. In the abstract, it makes sense. The problem is that they are an old team carrying a lot of guys who they can’t use. JHS could not get on the floor. It would be a bit of a shock if he takes the leap into being rotation worthy this year. Bronny is clearly not ready. Maxwell Lewis came across as being more than a year away, even having prototype size and athleticism for a wing who can shoot. Cam Reddish has had five or six coaches in the NBA, and the revealed consensus among them is they can’t use him. A team can probably use any one of Vanderbilt, Wood, or Hayes as a backup big man, depending on need and stylistic preference, but no team is going to use all three. That is six of fifteen with an old roster. Plus, Gabe Vincent is coming off a bad, injury-plagued year, Max Christie is not proven as a regular part of the rotation, and Dalton Knecht could very well need some time to adjust to the NBA because he is a rookie. I understand teams being willing to wait on players with the size and shooting of Lewis and Knecht, or even a big, athletic point like JHS. Whether they work out or not, teams gives the likes of Hayes and Reddish every chance to prove they can’t play. Why do it with the 6’2″ off guard with a far from proven shot to the tune of three years? Unless they think he is going to sprout up three or four inches, he is still going to be a 6’2″ off guard if his shot comes around.

As for the Suns, maybe I am a sucker, but I like the additions of Monte Morris, Ryan Dunn, and Mason Plumlee. They could use a point guard, and Morris is a good buy-low candidate after being collateral damage in Detroit last year. In a lot of spots, Dunn’s lack of a shot would be an issue, but the Suns are one of the rare teams that can get away with going 4-on-5 offensively if he can be their defensive ace. Plumlee offers a nice contrast to Nurkic so they can handle different matchups. It is still a big “if” over whether they can stay healthy, but I think there roster looks far better now than it did at the start of last season.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

JHS is a good player, but to this day I still remember screaming at the streams going on that Cam Whitmore was the better player and fit. And now JHS will still have his work cut out for him. Whitmore could be a star someday. I’m not liking the trajectory of those teams still, but I do like the fits for the Suns. Monte Morris especially for a backup. They need reliable starters for those positions though. I’m not a believer in Nurkic staying healthy. Plumlee’s a good fit, but he’s over the hill. Problem with Suns and Lakers is that they lack the better depth. I admit Idk what to think of Dunn on the Suns. He’ll bring defense, but he’s a liability on offense. We’ll see how he does.

[HitsterParticipant]

I forgot there was another James lad but Bryce looks a right Dweeb! But he is already much bigger than Bronny so might have more of a shot of making it in the NBA. If the Lakers are well in with Rich Paul then they may wonder why he couldn’t put KCP back towards them?

What do the Lakers get back keeping LBJ happy by drafting Bronny? Is LBJ potentially going to become an investor in the team when he retires. Can first round rookie deals be 3 years or more guaranteed?

I don’t think my Suns will ever win a title in KD’s time either. We messed up not drafting Donic basically and gave up too much for KD.

The Lakers will run with LBJ and AD for a few more years and always be a top FA option. Knicks and Boston are maxed out for longer than Lakers so I don’t feel to sorry for them on their 17 titles.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Atm, so far from what we’ve seen in Summer League, Reed Sheppard has been the best rookie. Don’t know how much minutes he’ll get in the regular season but he’s legit.

[HitsterParticipant]

Reed can be positioned in a game and with good players around him he’ll be able to get shooting chances and not double teamed. Sarr and Risacher have looked good in their first game. Holmes had a good first game before he got injured too.

The shooting in the SL is about like the NCAA compared to NBA games.

Stephon Castle’s shooting is still his major flaw but he is looking so promising as that intangibles almost Iggy like player.

[kikikikiParticipant]

Mataz buzelis has been outstanding he’ll be right there for roookie of the Year for sure!

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Buzelis seems like the most likely to get close to 30 minutes per to begin the season. As long as LaVine is on the roster, he likely comes off the bench to start the season, but should the majority of the minutes behind the 3 and 4. It is a little odd numbering them. If White, LaVine, Giddey, Williams, and Vucevic start, the core players off the bench will be Dosunmu, Giddey, and Smith with Carter and Craig mixed in. If LaVine and Williams were to miss time, he can get all the minutes he can handle. He plays hard, is far from shy in terms of his willingness to create or shoot, and think he is going to catch people by surprise with his off ball shot blocking. With so many guys lacking obvious paths to big minutes, it makes sense.

Ware looks like he will be able to step in as Bam’s backup right away, but how many minutes is that? Can they play them together? How many Eastern Conference teams present matchups where they can make it work?

Klintman’s strong summer might get him a chance, but they just signed Tobias Harris and re-signed Simone Fontecchio. With a pair of recent lottery picks in Ausar and Holland at the 3, he is probably on the outside looking in.

My fear for Ja’Kobe Walter’s shooting in the Big XII continues into the summer league, but still has a very good path to minutes with Trent in Milwaukee. By the way, Trent for the minimum is nutty.

Trey Alexander can’t really do much on a two-way, but it is not crazy to think their lack of depth on the wing could create opportunities. They figure to start Braun and Porter with Strawther and Watson behind them. Hunter Tyson might slide into the 3 for a few minutes, and they might want a few minutes with Westbrook and Murray, but there are not a ton of options. If Alexander can make shots and be a decent defender, he might just be waiting for an injury.

Could Karlo Matkovic steal minutes in New Orleans? He did well in the Eurocup and ABA for the first half of last year, and followed it up with a solid cup of coffee in the G-League. He had 25 against the Spurs in the SL, and has been a solid shot blocker. I still think they will trade for someone (Robert Williams, Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez, Steven Adams, etc.), but what if they can’t move Ingram and therefore are stuck? Matkovic would give them a shot blocking center option who can spread the floor. This is what they wanted. Daniel Theis can give minutes, and generally does admirably when given them, but is not the solution. It is highly unlikely, there are not even odds listed for him for a reason, but with this draft class cannot be completely dismissed.

Also, why are people betting on Bronny? I get that I just made the case for Karlo Matkovic, but there is an actual body of work where he has done well and is going to a team that might not have many options at his position.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40591051/bronny-james-becomes-popular-pick-rookie-year

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Buzelis is a fantastic pick for ROY. It’s as good a pick as some others. Like you said, he should get minutes.

Ware and Bam will play sometimes together against bigger lineups. Bam could play the 4. Ware still won’t get minutes like Buzelis theoretically could though with Bam there. Still a good long term fit.

Klintman may be on the outside looking in on playing time, but his shooting range could give him minutes.

Alexander has an uphill battle for minutes and his shot is streaky. Not sure he’s more than a 2 way caliber player.

I like Matkovic, but not the fit in New Orleans. They need a rim protector for either Ingram or someone else.

It is funny how Bronny being left open and hitting a couple jumpers makes believers out of him… He’s not really an NBA caliber player.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

I’m trying to find paths to minutes. It is no fun to analyze Risacher’s odds when there is no value picking it. There is no value in picking the US to win the Olympics, Georgia or OSU to win the college football title, or Man City to win the Premier League. Sure, you can be right, but so that is just reading a clock when asked the time.

I am just looking at who has a path to big minutes. I don’t think Edey plays 30 minutes per. With JJJ and Brandon Clark, they have other looks. So long as FVV is in Houston, I don’t see Sheppard playing big minutes. It is hard to play one small guard, they certainly can’t play two with Sengun as their center. Go down the line. Buzelis is the clear one outside the Top 10. After him, you are coming up with stories. Denver lacks depth on the wings. It gives Alexander a chance to take advantage if someone goes down. Not likely, but possible. I think New Orleans will find a trade partner to get a center, but there is no guarantee. Yves Missi is raw. Daniel Theis has never played huge minutes. A path exists for Matkovic, a narrow one, but it is there.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I see, a guy who can get some minutes that’s been getting some buzz is Bub Carrington perhaps…

[HitsterParticipant]

Buzelis was high in most mocks for the last couple of years. He was pretty much in the same bracket as Risacher for a lot of this time. He maybe dropped a bit down the draft but was still a lottery pick. When I first thought of RoY Edey was the guy who jumped out at me but I can see Buzelis getting as many minutes as him.

Castle has a clear path to minutes and will get his rebounds, steals ad a few assists but his ball carrying may be limited and we still have the issues about his shot. If CP3 can find him some easy baskets then his numbers could put him in RoY hunt.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I’m impressed with Dadiet and Salaun. Both players have been doing things despite being considered “raw” by most experts. I think both will carve out good careers in the long run. I wonder… what would a redraft look like after SL? Would Sheppard be the 1st pick?

[Author]

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